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THEY PROBABLY NEVER got Harold Wilson to write political previews after he famously noted that “a week is a long time in politics”.
Fortunately for the former British prime minister it is left to others to try and predict what might happen in the year ahead with the words (though they are disputed) of his predecessor Harold Macmillan about “events, dear boy, events” no doubt ringing in their years.
Our point – and we’ll stop referencing Britain’s former premiers now – is that it’s near impossible to say what’s going to happen politically over the next 12 months.
To give just one example, who would have thought that the Savita Halappanavar case in late 2012 would prompt a national debate on abortion that dominated the first seven months of 2013 and lead to abortion legislation, 20 years after it was first called for.
So with that in mind, instead of predictions we’ve posed a few questions, some of which will be answered for sure, some of which we hope will be answered, and some which will probably lead to more questions…
The government has taken a gamble – albeit a calculated one – on Ireland being okay on its own with the EU/IMF programme ended and no precautionary credit line in place.
It’s all about bond yields staying low, the economy continuing to grow and the eurozone remaining relatively calm in the year ahead. If all that happens then it’s all good, but those three things are big ‘ifs’.
Labour spent much of 2013 in meltdown, but in the last few weeks there has been a recovery of sorts. While nearly ten per cent of the party’s councillors have jumped ship, those who have remained loyal will hope the upturn in the polls will translate into less of an electoral bloodbath than had been feared.
Labour does stand to lose seats and could realistically return no MEPs in May, but if overall economic recovery continues and the polls stabilise in their rating in the low teens then things could go better than many would have expected midway through last year.
Having hit historic lows in 2011, 2014 provides the first test of whether or not the public has forgiven, or is at least not as angry at Fianna Fáil as it was. The party will hope to boost its proportionate number of councillors and regain some ground in Dublin where it has no TDs.
A real test of the party’s recovery will be in the capital. If it takes one of three European Parliament seats then it’s a sure bet that it has recovered substantially from its meltdown three years ago.
Opinion polls show a large number of undecided voters, which some falsely interpret as meaning there is a need for a new party that all of these undecideds will coalesce around. In reality, that’s simply not the case.
But it is fair to say that a new party would attract significant interest – that’s ‘interest’ as opposed to actual ‘voters’. The question is whether or not it’s going to happen and will it be on the right – involving the Reform Alliance – or the left – with Roisin Shortall, John Halligan, Thomas Pringle and the like?
The belief is that if it is to happen then it will be after the local and European elections. No one wants to do a Libertas and win nothing as happened with Declan Ganley in 2009, so it will be all about building a movement that looks towards 2016. Watch out for this in late 2014 and keep a close eye on Lucinda Creighton.
A Cabinet reshuffle or “movement” as Enda Kenny referred to it will happen in late 2014, and the big question in all of that will be what happens to the Health Minister. The bigger question is what happens to the health service, but that will ultimately impact on Reilly’s future.
If health plunders from one mess to another, as seems to be happening right now with its budget and the medical card issues, then it will be a huge surprise if Reilly remains in place.
Reilly, Phil Hogan and Ruairí Quinn are the names most often mentioned when it comes to succeeding Marie Geoghegan-Quinn as Ireland’s European Commissioner. The decision is at the discretion of Enda Kenny but Eamon Gilmore can push for it if he wants to give it to one of his lot (or indeed himself as some have wildly speculated).
In the past, the Commissioner role has been used either to send some undesirable out of the country (see Charlie McCreevy) or, in select circumstances and more so in other countries, for the best candidate. If it’s Reilly or Hogan then it’s probably going to be for the first reason, if it’s Quinn it’s probably a bit more for the second reason. Of course it may well be none of these three.
The past continues to cause problems for Adams and as a result Sinn Féin. Though he is firmly committed to leading his party into the 2016 general election, a question mark now hangs over whether that will be the case.
Truth is, an opposition leader’s position is never safe. There was talk about Micheál Martin’s future in 2013, while it’s less than four years since Enda Kenny survived an attempted heave.
But there could well be a perfect storm of more allegations about the past and a worse than expected result in the local and European elections which may lead to Adams’s departure. The same could apply to Martin in the form of the banking inquiry (i.e. the past) and the local and European elections.
The Anglo Tapes last summer reminded us of the need to find out just what went on in the run-up to the bank guarantee and with the relevant legislation passed, the government is expected to launch an Oireachtas inquiry into the banking crisis this year.
With pending criminal trials, the scope of any inquiry will not be as vast as one would hope and it is difficult to determine what, if any, new and substantive information we will learn. But the idea of Brian Cowen and other former ministers being quizzed by TDs in full public view is intriguing and will be box office if it happens.
Banking stress tests will take place in the latter half of 2014 and will be a crucial indicator of whether Irish banks are appropriately capitalised. Some commentators maintain that they aren’t and their huge mortgage books are going to cause problems, but the government says it’s all rosy in the garden.
Perhaps crucial to the overall capitalisation of our banks is whether the historic 29 June 2012 agreement to break the link between banks and the sovereign is actually applied retroactively to Ireland’s banking sector and we get some form of relief on our huge bank debt. The government, we are told, is pushing for this but there was zero progress in 2013 and discouraging words from the likes of Jose Manuel Barroso.
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I worked in Google Dublin (and have visited and lunched in many of the offices including in MTV). although the meals are great it’s a great way of having teams go to lunch and ‘break bread’ with each other on a regular basis. in my opinion it’s that team ethic that makes it worthwhile for these firms. the team ethic is amazing
@tallaght two – ‘team’ in this context is a euphemism for a ‘collective’.
from personal experience I have to say I completely disagree. people flock to work there and it’s consistently named best place to work.
A team is a collective, that’s the point.
Google it.
My point is that all corporations now purposely structure their organisations in a similar manner to the communist collective – where the individual loses his significance and importance by being absorbed into a ‘collective’ (team). – where credit for achievement is re-distributed.
Credit isnt redistributed, employees in Google and other multinationala have their performance measured very closely. Two bad performing quarters and you could be out the door.
You’ve just affirmed my point. Their performance is monitored by the commissar (ie team leader) on a weekly basis. Statistics are then passed around to the team showing how everyone is doing, compared to everyone else in the team. The purpose here being to create an internal rivalry within the team to impress the commissar – who is also part if a collective, one level higher with the other commissar team leaders , where the cycle repeats itself.
And what is wrong with that plantation? If you don’t perform you need to be put out.
It’s a pity the public sector in ireland isn’t run like that. Mediocrity is almost rewarded
great ploy by the company to get them to work crazy hours. well done google
I wonder if all these companies will follow suit
http://xcdn.revolution-news.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/CGSWBztWwAMGchv.jpg?iv=3
For the most part they’re willing too… Those who want to do and achieve the minimum are encouraged to not waste their time applying.
A normal price for a lunch is around 7e.
1.25e would be heavily subsidised!
Sure nothing could bate me packed ham and cheese sandwiches!
Next the employees will live on site permanently and raise families there. Soon after that the entire complex will be moved underground and the employees will have no knowledge of the world outside and live to serve the company. George lucas made a movie about that kind of thing happening before he realised making those kind of movies doesnt pay the bills.
How often do Google pay taxes ? Actually less then 1.25% of the time.
Sure multi billionaires and their companies need all the help they can get, unlike orphans, the disabled and the ill; I mean fook them right, this is Ireland!
Take those multi billion companies out of Ireland. Many thousands would be jobless and on the dole and the country would be in much better shape.
I worked in Dublin and ate breakfast and lunch in work every day for free, occasionally dinner as well in the evening.
The google stone is real, but it’s also pretty easy to lose weight if you just put in a bit of effort. In my last 6 months there I was able to lost over a stone by picking the healthy stuff from the canteens, that guy who brings his own food in should just learn to eat chicken and veg instead of steak and potatoes every day.
You clearly don’t know much about nutrition if you think it’s steak and potatoes that make you fat :-) Anyway I agree with your general thought it’s all about choices.
Do the pay BIK on their free lunch in Dublin ?
They don’t need to… An employer can feed their staff with no tax complications…
Also who cares
Well they tax health insurance as a BIK , and that would be cheaper than lunch and breakfast for the year . So I guess anyone who pays BIK on other perks care.
Denis only pays 1.25%
Heard of a lady who worked for Google and had time off for maternity leave and they sent lunch to her house every day she was off
I heard they deliver your baby for you and have the baby working by the age they are 2 and they give free milk to the baby.
Do they do a good breakfast roll?
We order off Deliveroo all the time now to our office in Dublin. Pretty good range of stuff and you’re not often stuck for a healthy option. Saves me queuing for a sandwich somewhere anyway.
I just Googled it,says never
My breakfast, lunch and dinner is free in work; I pay €5 a week for my food and my other half makes my granola breakfast cereal for my supper; I love it!!
Facebook also does free food throughout day for its employees. I suppose it’s all about making you work longer and happier spend more time in the office.
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