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LAST UPDATE | 10 May 2022
THERE IS A 50-50 chance that global temperatures will temporarily breach the benchmark of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels in one of the next five years, the United Nations has warned.
The 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change saw countries agree to cap global warming at “well below” 2 Celsius above levels measured between 1850 and 1900 – and 1.5 degrees Celsius if possible.
“The chance of global near-surface temperature exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels at least one year between 2022 and 2026 is about as likely as not,” the UN’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said in an annual climate update.
The WMO put the likelihood at 48%, and said it was increasing with time.
An average temperature of 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level across a multi-year period would breach the Paris aspirational target.
There is a 93% chance of at least one year between 2022-2026 becoming the warmest on record and dislodging 2016 from the top ranking, said the WMO.
The chance of the five-year temperature average for 2022-2026 being higher than the last five years (2017-2021) was also put at 93%.
“This study shows – with a high level of scientific skill – that we are getting measurably closer to temporarily reaching the lower target of the Paris Agreement,” said WMO chief Petteri Taalas.
“The 1.5 degrees Celsius figure is not some random statistic. It is rather an indicator of the point at which climate impacts will become increasingly harmful for people and indeed the entire planet.”
‘Edging ever closer’
The Paris Agreement level of 1.5 degrees Celsius refers to long-term warming, but temporary exceedances are expected to occur with increasing frequency as global temperatures rise.
“A single year of exceedance above 1.5C does not mean we have breached the iconic threshold of the Paris Agreement, but it does reveal that we are edging ever closer to a situation where 1.5C could be exceeded for an extended period,” said Leon Hermanson, of Britain’s Met Office national weather service, who led the report.
The average global temperature in 2021 was around 1.11 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, according to provisional WMO figures.
The report said that back-to-back La Nina events at the start and end of 2021 had a cooling effect on global temperatures.
However, this was only temporary and did not reverse the long-term global warming trend.
La Nina refers to the large-scale cooling of surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, typically occurring every two to seven years.
The effect has widespread impacts on weather around the world – typically the opposite impacts to the El Nino warming phase in the Southern Oscillation cycle.
Any development of an El Nino event would immediately fuel temperatures, as it did in 2016, said the WMO.
‘Last chance saloon’
John Sweeney, Emeritus Professor of Geography at Maynooth University, said its incumbent on us to take the WMO warning very seriously as we’re approaching the “last chance saloon” on the climate front.
“We’re on the edge of the climate cliff. The 1.5 degree threshold that we will exceed probably in the next five to 10 years, we will be excceding consistently between 2020 and 2050,” Professor Sweeney told RTÉ’s Morning Ireland.
“That bodes very badly for how we will cope with a sustainable lifestyle, not just in Ireland, but in many parts of the world because 1.5 degrees is the global average.
“For many parts of the world that means three and four degrees of warming. That eliminates food supplies in some parts of the world, it makes intolerable living conditions in other parts of the world.
Even for us in Ireland, it threatens our climatic system and the stability that we’ve had historically from our position on the Atlantic.
Greenhouse gas link
The annual mean global near-surface temperature for each year between 2022 and 2026 is predicted to be between 1.1C and 1.7C higher than pre-industrial levels.
There is only a 10 percent chance of the five-year mean exceeding the 1.5C threshold.
“For as long as we continue to emit greenhouse gases, temperatures will continue to rise,” said Taalas.
“And alongside that, our oceans will continue to become warmer and more acidic, sea ice and glaciers will continue to melt, sea level will continue to rise and our weather will become more extreme.
“Arctic warming is disproportionately high and what happens in the Arctic affects all of us.”
Meanwhile, predicted precipitation patterns for 2022, compared to the 1991-2020 average, suggest an increased chance of drier conditions over southwestern Europe and southwestern North America, and wetter conditions in northern Europe, the Sahel, northeastern Brazil, and Australia.
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Took me over six months to get the domestic grant payment. I had to chase it up constantly and everything went into them perfect. I Still haven’t got the payment from Energis 10 months later. If I owed them money that long, I would have no electricity. Why is there no fine or punishment to them for sticking the fingers up to the rest of us?
As with most grant systems only certain registered companies can be used. Then these companies charge more normally to the value of the grant.
@Craic_a_tower: Unfortunately that’s what usually happens when government subsidises a scheme or service. Suppliers take the P***. Happened years ago when government introduced a grant for central heating. Central heating installation went up by 2 grand over night.
Same with HAP. That has also driven rents up (as government won’t build):
@Fr. Fintan Stack: don’t agree on HAP and most landlords don’t and never wanted it hence they made it illegal to refuse
@Craic_a_tower: “don’t agree on HAP” – ??
So what are you saying? HAP hasn’t contributed to greed?
There’s no grant for a new build unfortunately which doesn’t make a huge pile of sense to me anyway. Will need to go without for now and hope to get them further down the road. If anyone knows any way around this, I’d love to hear.
Problem is the rip off sales people. Quoting people for things they don’t need, won’t work.
Also the price difference from different installers can’t be doubled for the same system.
I was luckily enough to get 7panels(2.5kw) for €2500 after the grant early last year. Price is almost doubled now. I’m going to DIY 4 or maybe 8 onto the shed roof next month ad seems the only affordable way at the moment.
There is a good thread on boards.ie i woild suggest anyone thinking of investing to read/post thete before committing to a purchase
@pkunzip doom2.zip: The quote I was given was 9k for mine, when I got my ducks in a row 2 months later it was 23.
@pkunzip doom2.zip: you’re right, a friend of mine, a carpenter, was quoted €15000 after the grant. He bought the panel and system from a company in Northern Iteland and installed the panels, the inverter, and cabling himself and got an electrician in to wire it up and certified it all for around the €7500 mark. Companies are ripping customers off.
I got solar panels 3 years ago and was assured I would qualify for grant. Assessor came out and said house was up to ber standard. Next day got call to say it wasn’t unless I provided information and rating for installed windows. Company I used for all new windows had gone out of business. It’s a joke.
Will housing trusts and country councils be installing panels on houses? If not why not?
@Mary Fitzsimons: they have been upgrade council owned property for years at no charge to the residents. It actually seems unfair on the neighbours who bought their properties from the council. As for trusts they are charities who try to house as many people they can but you seem to think they should provide better than people buying their own property.
Sun Arc Solar Systems do the majority of the grant work for the homeowner, I had my grant back in 6 weeks after the installation from this company.
@Charmaine ☘ Irish: Thing is, say for me as an example is the money you have to pay for the job. I wouldn’t be able to get a loan at my age to upgrade my home. Unless you have the money first go then it’s a non runner for a lot I’d imagine.
@Dave Barrett: yes, I get what your saying, if anyone had the money, it makes sense to get it as the money you have in the bank account or under the mattress wouldn’t give the same return as solar power.. it is a really sound investment.. but if your of a certain age, maybe idly might not make sense
I went with Activ8 and they did all the paper, they reduced the cost I paid them by the amount of the grant. I didn’t have to do a single thing
Overall the grant needs to be more or remove the vat from it
Like Charmaine I had my grant back in 8 weeks and the installer JM Energi Ballingeary did everything connected to the grant
I got my solar PV a year ago and the grant process was all online and almost all of it was done by the contractor, nice and simple. I put in a heat pump 6 months ago and the process was all by paper and post, involving me sending parts of forms to different people to fill in their bit and then have to wait for them to come back and send on to the next person, before collating it all to send onto SEAI. All very time consuming, slow and tedious. I don’t understand why they have different systems for different grants.
The worst part isn’t the grant process, it’s trying to get a contractor. It’s like they are interviewing the customers and deciding if you are worthy of their time. I feel sorry for anyone that has a non standard installation, as they will find very hard to get a contractor.
It’s the overall cost that is putting people off
From a domestic point of view I found it very easy and efficient. I applied and the same day they got back to me saying it was approved. Then 3 weeks after the installer sent in their paperwork the grant was paid into my account.
I got my solar PV a year ago and the grant process was all online and almost all of it was done by the contractor, nice and simple. I put in a heatpump 6 months ago and the process was all by paper and post, involving me sending parts of forms to different people to fill in their bit and then have to wait for them to come back and send on to the next person, before collating it all to send onto SEAI. All very time consuming, slow and tedious. I don’t understand why they have different systems for different grants.
The worst part isn’t the grant process, it’s trying to get a contractor. It’s like they are interviewing the customers and deciding if you are worthy of their time. I feel sorry for anyone that has a non standard installation, as they will find very hard to get a contractor.
I refurbished an old house and filled all the forms for SEAI , got BER, technical assessment fully compliant registered contractor as required. Spent €€€€ on roof, walls, floor, heat pump. Still waiting for ‘Michelle’ in SEAI to deal with my claim ……..! Complete waste of time !
This could be solved by a process that allowed the householder to sign the grant over to the installer, with a robust auditing process and the use of approved installers. That process works in other areas.
If every building had wind/solar… hmmm
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