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A nun walks past a Yes poster in Dublin earlier this month. Sam Boal

Latest referendum polls show the 'Yes' side is ahead

This is likely to be the last of the national surveys before polling day.

TWO OPINION polls on the Eighth Amendment referendum shows that the ‘Yes’ side is ahead, with the number of undecided voters declining.

The Sunday Business Post/Red C poll published today shows that 56% are in favour of voting to repeal the Eighth Amendment, a three-point increase on the same question last month.

The No side is up one point to 27%, while the number of ‘don’t knows’ is at 14%. Three percent refused to answer.

As an additional question, people were asked to estimate the result of the referendum, a technique which predicted the result of the same-sex marriage referendum exactly.

The ‘wisdom of the crowds’ technique predicted that in the Eighth Amendment referendum next Friday, 56% would vote ‘Yes’ and 44% would vote ‘No’.

The poll of more than 1,000 adults was taken between 10 and 16 May. Today’s poll is likely to be one of the last national surveys to be published before polling day.

A Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes poll, also published today, showed that the ‘Yes’ side is on 52%, rising by five percentage points, and that the ‘No’ side is on 24%. When the undecideds are removed, that represents a 68-32 lead for the ‘Yes’ side, according to the poll.

The last poll on the issue, published in the Irish Times on Thursday, showed support for removal of the Eighth Amendment at 58% to 42% once undecideds are excluded.

Including those yet to make up their minds, the Yes vote was placed at 44% with the No vote at 32% and 17% undecided. 7% said they would not vote or declined to say.

Campaigning continued this weekend, with high profile figures on either side of the debate making appeals to win over undecided voters.

“We are now in the final week of campaigning in the referendum to remove the eighth amendment. The eighth has caused and continues to cause untold suffering to women. Next Friday is an opportunity to right this wrong,” Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald said, canvassing on Dublin’s Moore street yesterday.

“At all times in this campaign we must ground ourselves in respect and fact and recognise that every day women in this country are suffering under the eighth amendment.

5338 Sinn Fein_90543212 Mary Lou McDonald canvassed on Moore Street yesterday. Rollingnews.ie Rollingnews.ie

“The fact is that the eighth amendment causes further trauma to victims of rape.

The fact that the eighth amendment forces young girls to import abortion pills illegally at great danger to themselves.
The fact is that women are suffering and will continue to suffer under the eighth amendment.
The crucial fact is that removing the eighth amendment is the only way to help women who are seeking a termination because they are pregnant as a result of rape or who are dealing with the devastating diagnosis of fatal foetal abnormality.

Catholic primate Archbishop Eamon Martin said in his latest message that to be against abortion is not simply “a Catholic thing”.

The innate dignity of every human life is a value for the whole of society – for people of all faiths and none. It is rooted in reason as well as in faith. To take away an innocent human life can never be simply a matter of personal choice.

90414710_90414710 Archbishop Eamon Martin pictured alongside Dublin Archbishop Diarmuid Martin. Sam Boal / Rollingnews.ie Sam Boal / Rollingnews.ie / Rollingnews.ie

Martin appealed to voters to say no to repealing the Eighth Amendment “and then do everything you can to ensure that our country will always provide the best possible care and support for all mothers and their unborn children”.

Voting in the Eighth Amendment referendum begins at 7am this coming Friday, with polls closing at 10pm.

- With reporting by Daragh Brophy 

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    Mute Cuppantae
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    Jan 2nd 2015, 4:49 PM

    These depraved people traffickers know full well that no EU nation will allow a ship carrying hundreds of migrants crash onto rocks drowning and injuring hundreds of people….set the course and let it go. These traffickers should be shot on sight….

    153
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    Mute Alan Seag
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    Jan 2nd 2015, 5:07 PM

    They must be brought to justice but once you put them down other dogs will happily step forward to fill the void. People are desperate and will continue to venture on such dangerous journeys until the motives driving them to go are addressed.

    48
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    Mute Scipio
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    Jan 2nd 2015, 5:07 PM

    Of course they should not be allowed to crash onto rocks, but at the same allowing every one of these ghost ships to disembark it’s passengers in the EU, just compounds the problem and only encourages the smugglers. They should be intercepted and towed back to wherever they came from.

    91
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    Mute Windom Earle
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    Jan 2nd 2015, 4:37 PM

    Because they know that the EU is a soft touch and that we want to commit cultural suicide.

    132
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    Mute andrew haire
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    Jan 2nd 2015, 4:45 PM

    Because they are desperate for some sort of life that everyone needs. Look on it as foreign aid for the less well off.

    26
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    Mute Windom Earle
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    Jan 2nd 2015, 4:52 PM

    Well they should not mess up there own country, we don’t want there wars on our streets like in Hamburg a few weeks ago between Sunnis and Kurds.

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    Mute Jay McGregor
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    Jan 2nd 2015, 4:56 PM

    How is it foreign aid if they end up living here and attaching themselves to European social welfare? These people are illegal trespassers and need to be treated as such. Those behind the trafficking need to be ruthlessly hunted down and arrested.

    The days of Europe allowing in everyone and anyone with a sob story needs to be put to bed. We are not a global soup kitchen.

    103
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    Mute Tony Canning
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    Jan 2nd 2015, 4:59 PM

    Cultural suicide?

    Sounds very brehvik to me…

    16
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    Mute Jay McGregor
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    Jan 2nd 2015, 5:02 PM

    Yes, cultural suicide. They don’t just give up their own culture, customs and religious beliefs once they enter Europe, you know? The question is, is their culture, customs and religous beliefs compatible with ours?

    87
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    Mute Tony Canning
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    Jan 2nd 2015, 5:08 PM

    Careful now Jay, your thin veil of prejudice is slipping

    15
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    Mute Jay McGregor
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    Jan 2nd 2015, 5:15 PM

    I think the culture in third world countries is greatly inferior to that of ours here in Western Europe.

    Sue me.

    65
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    Mute Tony Canning
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    Jan 2nd 2015, 5:19 PM

    Yes – what with all our wars, theft of language and religious suppression – we’re just so much better here in good old Europe.

    Stunning.

    14
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    Mute Jay McGregor
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    Jan 2nd 2015, 5:31 PM

    Europe has been at peace for over half a century, is pretty secular and theft of languages? You’re speaking English.

    We have over 20 million people unemployed in Europe. A lot of them are non EU immigrants as is(Souce: http://www.euractiv.com/sections/social-europe-jobs/non-eu-citizens-twice-likely-be-unemployed-303834).

    Where will these people work? Its not like we have a shortage of unskilled labour. Where will live? Will they need healthcare? Education? Language lessons? Welfare? Who shall pay for it all?

    We are not running a global soup kitchen here.

    56
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    Mute Tony Canning
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    Jan 2nd 2015, 5:37 PM

    Ok Jay ok….. I’ve had a look through the other comments you’ve made on here and it’s obvious that you are not anti-immigration. You’re quite simply anti everyone else.

    There’s no talking to people who have decided that everything is wrong with any given issue.

    13
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    Mute Alan Seag
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    Jan 2nd 2015, 5:54 PM

    He raises valid points though Tony, who will cater to these individuals and their needs in Europe and who will pay for it? Futhermore what of the countless millions that will follow them, where are they to go?

    64
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    Mute Jay McGregor
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    Jan 2nd 2015, 6:14 PM

    Care to deal with the points that I made? Stop bringing up Breivik and trying to smear me. You wouldn’t have the balls to do that to my face, so don’t do it online. Deal with the topic at hand.

    Searching through my posts. You’re an odd character.

    40
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    Mute Tony Canning
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    Jan 2nd 2015, 6:15 PM

    I agree there are serious issues with migration, but the simplicity of “send them back” as a solution? That just doesn’t work.
    These days a lot of these boats are filled with Syria refugees. To even call them migrants is inaccurate.

    What doesn’t sit well about it all is a whole mess of double standards. Tens of thousands of Syrian people dead, tons of illegal irish in America yet we still talk of send them back?

    Immigration as a lot of challenges and I can’t say I know what the solutions are, but it’s not to create resentment between nations.

    11
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    Mute Tony Canning
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    Jan 2nd 2015, 6:54 PM

    I made the point that e made a similar claim. I would make the same point to your face, nothing to do with balls.
    I’ve no wish to get into flaming, I just don’t see any reasonable solution being offered.

    If “send them back” is your only offering then you’ve as much to offer as me in terms of solutions. Immigration is a fact, and wasn’t an issue during the boom.

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    Mute Jay McGregor
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    Jan 2nd 2015, 7:15 PM

    What country did you live in during the boom? It was a huge issue. As for solutions. How about this. An immigration policy that benefits the country and natives, not only the immigrants. An immigration policy that prioritises skilled migrants and entrepreneurs, but also keeps out the unskilled, uneducated or those that came for the mooch. All “language schools” closed. Those that undertook sham marriages for residency to be deported along with failed asylum seekers. Instead of dishing out citizenship like confetti at them.

    How’s about that for starters?

    32
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    Mute Tony Canning
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    Jan 2nd 2015, 7:28 PM

    I lived in a country that BENEFITTED from migrants during the boom (this one).

    Very little of your suggestions address people who are fleeing places where there have been thousands of deaths. Personally, I think you’re right with closing loopholes; I don’t think anyone should have to pay for those who’s only intention is to take advantage.

    Maybe you should have started with that rather than agreeing with “cultural suicide”.

    9
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    Mute Andy Patton
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    Jan 2nd 2015, 8:22 PM

    I’ll send 3 of them over to your gaff later, Tony. Assume you’ll be cool with it.

    27
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    Mute big willy
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    Jan 2nd 2015, 4:56 PM

    A homeless man died only a few meters from our national parliament. The problem of homelessness is growing by the day.

    The Knights of Columbanus, who dish out Christmas lunches every year to the needy, said the numbers coming to them has doubled in the last three years.

    We have enough deprived people of our own to cope with than to import even more

    91
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    Mute Jay McGregor
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    Jan 2nd 2015, 5:08 PM

    We spent €635 million on foreign aid last year. How much of that could have been used to alleviate the homeless situation at home?

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    Mute Alan Seag
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    Jan 2nd 2015, 4:56 PM

    This was always bound to occur with foreign leaders and governments being toppled on Europe’s doorstep.

    Its a tragic situation which will undoubtedly warrant multiple tactics and answers to remedy but a zero tolerance policy surely must be adopted similar to that which Australia has succesfully used to stem the flow and reduce drownings. When boats are being towed back to their port of origin these desperate souls and the others waiting will realize its a pointless endeavour, thus removing the carrot the traffickers are only too delighted to dangle in front of them. Otherwise where do you draw the line? At what point should Europe stop accepting responsibility and demand the Islamic countries of the region like Iran, Qatar, SA do their part?

    The UN and EU should also be establishing safe areas with the essentials and the things they desiee (security, housing, schools, hospitals etc) in the countries where these migrants originate to lessen the temptation to travel.

    65
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    Mute Scipio
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    Jan 2nd 2015, 5:11 PM

    The mega rich Gulf nations have barely taken any refugees from a conflict they’ve done so much to fuel and prolong. It’s a disgrace.

    91
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    Mute Windom Earle
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    Jan 2nd 2015, 4:58 PM

    It looks good for TDs and MPS and euro minsters to take them in but how many are they taking into there posh areas they dump them on working and middle class areas and then forget about them and who pays for this joe public as always.

    54
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    Mute Pat Kavanagh
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    Jan 2nd 2015, 5:56 PM

    Couldnt agree more. Id love to see Aodhain O R take in the Roma and Asylum seekers he has such a fetish for and put them in housing right next to his own. Unfortunately that will never happen. The government like to take these people in to look good, and then they f*ck them out to the working class suburbs far away from their cosy D4 houses next to the HQ of their propaganda station RTE.

    Meanwhile in “working class land”, the local Spar have employment contracts with agencies in India, the local Lidl have employment contracts with agencies in Eastern Europe. The school places are set to prioritise “diverse” children. The local housing is set to prioritise “diverse” families. (just look at the story a few weeks ago on the journal where Irish families were being evicted to essentially make way for immigrant families)

    57
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    Mute Juninho
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    Jan 2nd 2015, 4:37 PM

    Vice did a good documentary about these boats landing in Lampedusa.

    22
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    Mute Dan Smith
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    Jan 2nd 2015, 4:52 PM

    Did they mention Dapper Laughs in the documentary? They love to remind us about how much they hate him in nearly everything they publish lately.

    7
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    Mute Bertie
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    Jan 2nd 2015, 5:23 PM

    The elite and bankers want us all to be drowned in debt (the way we are right now) and living in poverty. It’s working. Wake up sheep. Heck the Chinese believe this is the year of the sheep.

    19
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    Mute Lastpost
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    Jan 2nd 2015, 6:56 PM

    Year of the goat

    4
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    Mute Gerry Bowden
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    Jan 2nd 2015, 6:22 PM

    Sink it at sea…

    16
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    Mute Ciaran O Shea
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    Jan 2nd 2015, 8:56 PM

    174,000 make it to Italy, a couple of thousand die. 95+% success rate, don’t expect people to stop coming for a while!! Money well spent really…

    12
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    Mute amos brearly
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    Jan 2nd 2015, 6:45 PM

    Man the torpedos!

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    Mute Range Rover P38
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    Jan 2nd 2015, 6:32 PM

    Extreme right and ill informed comments here are the majority thus far. Worrying, especially for a nation who largely enjoy free movement.

    8
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