REPORTS HAVE EMERGED in recent days warning of a ‘polar vortex’ that is set to sweep Ireland over the coming month.
The front of today’s Irish Independent has warned of the worst winter in 50 years, and that a ‘polar vortex’ could see temperatures drop below -10C.
The predictions, which are based on a forecast from Exactaweather, state that the winter could be the coldest Ireland has seen since 1963 – which saw 17 inches of snow fall on New Year’s Eve alone.
It is argued that the harsh weather conditions will be caused by the Gulf Stream failing to reach Ireland and the country being engulfed by Siberian winds – which will in turn cause heavy snowfall.
Science
In contrast to this, Met Eireann are predicting the next ten days in the lead up to Christmas to be “exceptionally mild” for this time of the year.
Speaking to TheJournal.ie, a spokesperson for the public weather service, said, “There is no scientific forecasting beyond a week or ten days. I’m not sure what these reports are based on”.
It is our job to forecast the weather and we would endeavour to bring the most accurate and the best ones forward. We’re a public service. The public pay our wages. We wouldn’t be withholding information.
On the potential conditions over the winter period, the spokesperson went on to say it will depend on, “an interplay between polar air and warm air from the south and which wins out is what will determine exactly what the weather is.”
Approach
The technique used to devise the long-term predictions made by Exactaweather involve looking at “solar activity and ocean behaviour”.
It is said that monitoring these things over long periods of time can produce accurate weather predictions.
One the website, James Madden of Exactaweather states that he has predicted a number of major weather events, including the coldest December in 100 years in 2010, the coldest March in 130 years in 2013 and several snow risks including winter 2012 and spring 2013.
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