Advertisement

We need your help now

Support from readers like you keeps The Journal open.

You are visiting us because we have something you value. Independent, unbiased news that tells the truth. Advertising revenue goes some way to support our mission, but this year it has not been enough.

If you've seen value in our reporting, please contribute what you can, so we can continue to produce accurate and meaningful journalism. For everyone who needs it.

(from left) Mikey Madison, the cast and crew of Conclave, Zoe Saldana and Adrien Brody with their Baftas. Alamy Stock Photo

What can the Bafta results tell us about who might win at the Oscars?

Last night’s ceremony saw Conclave beat Anora and The Brutalist to take home the main prize of the night.

LAST NIGHT’S BAFTA Film Awards saw Conclave beat The Brutalist to take home the main trophy of the night. 

While the two movies tied with four awards each, it was Edward Berger’s Vatican-set thriller that scooped the best film honour. It marked its first major victory in an awards season that has been nothing if not unpredictable.

Conclave will once again go head-to-head with The Brutalist at the Academy Awards on 2 March. 

While the biggest night in the British film calendar can often be seen as a good indicator of what might take home the prestigious golden Oscar statuette, it doesn’t always go that way. 

Last year, apart from the visual effects category, every Bafta winner went on to win the Oscar. The previous year, only the winners in the cinematography and editing categories went on to beat the competition in Hollywood. 

The voting panels for both the Baftas and the Oscars are made up of a lot of the same people. Anyone can apply to be a member of Bafta if they work in the film industry, and around 6,500 members get to cast a vote for the film awards. 

The Oscars are voted for by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (Ampas). Anyone who ever wins an Oscar is invited to join, with around 9,500 members eligible to vote in the award categories.

With voting for the Oscars closing tomorrow, it remains to be seen how much of an impact last night’s wins will have on the eligible members, who will also have been paying attention to the winners of the Golden Globes last month.

Divine intervention?

Commentators reckon Conclave needed to win the best film Bafta to have a shot at the Best Picture Oscar against strong contenders such as Anora, A Complete Unknown and The Brutalist. 

ralph-fiennes-in-conclave-2024-directed-by-edward-berger-credit-filmnation-entertainment-album Ralph Fiennes in Conclave. Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

Last night’s victory puts it firmly in the running. One downside, however, is that Edward Berger was passed over in the Best Director category, an award that often goes hand-in-hand with the main winner.

That doesn’t make a win impossible. A victory in the editing and adapted screenplay categories could still see it in strong contention for the main award, and if the Baftas is anything to go by, it has those in the bag. Lisburn man Nick Emerson won the editing award for his work on the film, with Peter Straughan getting the gong for his screenplay.

Among Conclave’s competitors, The Brutalist – an epic drama about a Hungarian-Jewish architect who escapes post-war Europe to rebuild his life in America – is still very much in the running.

But despite early questioning about whether it was a serious contender, Anora has arguably emerged as Conclave’s biggest rival. The film won the Bafta for casting, and also took the main prizes at the Directors Guild Awards, the Writers Guild of America Awards and the Critics Choice Awards. 

Best actress race wide open

The biggest surprise of the Baftas was undoubtedly Mikey Madison’s win for leading actress for her titular role in Anora, playing a sex worker who is swept off her feet by the son of a Russian oligarch. 

There had been speculation that if frontrunner Demi Moore didn’t win for her career-reviving performance in The Substance, it would be because the British awards decided to reward Marianne Jean-Baptiste for her role in Mike Leigh’s Hard Truths.

the-substance-2024-directed-by-coralie-fargeat-and-starring-demi-moore-as-elisabeth-sparkle-a-fading-celebrity-decides-to-use-a-black-market-drug-a-cell-replicating-substance-that-temporarily-crea Demi Moore in The Substance. Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

But it was the 25-year-old relatively unknown Madison who pulled off the victory in the end, putting a big question mark over what could happen in Los Angeles next month.

After winning the Golden Globe and the Critics’ Choice award, Moore remains the favourite. But the upcoming Screen Actors Guild Awards could throw a further spanner in the works if they see a win for Wicked’s Cynthia Erivo or Fernanda Torres for I’m Still Here. 

Other acting categories

If the race for best actress is wide open, then those in the three other acting categories appear to be all wrapped up. 

Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) and Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) have dominated the awards circuit, with wins at the Golden Globes, the Critics’ Choice Awards and now the Baftas for leading actor, supporting actor and supporting actress, respectively. 

A win for any of them at next week’s Screen Actors Guild Awards would surely seal the deal for their Oscar. As entertainment magazine Variety points out, no actor has ever lost the coveted Academy Award after sweeping all four of the other televised awards. 

a-complete-unknown-2024-searchlight-pictures-film-withtimothee-chalamet-as-bob-dylan Timothée Chalamet in A Complete Unknown. Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

Of course, this means that if any of them lose in their categories at the SAGs, it would be a pretty big surprise. Could Timothée Chalamet sneak a win for his highly praised portrayal of Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown and shake things up? Or might his co-star Monica Barbaro, who played Joan Baez in the film, be the one to cause an upset?

Best director: Anora vs The Brutalist?

The unpredictability of this year’s awards season comes into play once again when we look at the contenders in the director category.

Brady Corbet was named best director at the Baftas for The Brutalist last night, after taking the Golden Globe for his work last month. While this might make him seem like the frontrunner, it’s not quite that set in stone. 

It is Sean Baker who is likely to be Corbet’s biggest competition. The Anora director won the top prize at the Directors Guild of America Awards, and in the last decade alone, the winner of this award has all but once taken home the best director Oscar. 

the-brutalist-adrien-brody Adrien Brody in The Brutalist. Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

There’s still a chance for a curveball, though. Wicked director Jon M Chu was the surprise winner at the Critics’ Choice Awards, despite not even scoring an Oscar nomination, so all hope may not be lost for James Mangold (A Complete Unknown), Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez) and Coralie Fargeat (The Substance). 

And the rest

Jesse Eisenberg’s film A Real Pain beat Critics’ Choice Awards winner The Substance to the best original screenplay Bafta last night, putting it in a strong position for the Oscar, albeit with fierce competition from Anora and The Brutalist. 

The cinematography award went to The Brutalist, the favourite to win the Academy Award in this category. It took home the Bafta over Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez and Nosferatu, which came out on top at the Critics’ Choice Awards. 

For makeup and hairstyling, The Substance – which won the Bafta and Critics’ Choice award in this category – is the one to beat. 

wicked-2024-directed-by-jon-m-chu-and-starring-ariana-grande-as-glinda-adaptation-of-the-long-running-and-much-loved-broadway-musical-based-on-the-book-the-wicked-the-life-and-times-of-the-wicked Ariana Grande in Wicked. Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

Meanwhile, Wicked’s Paul Tazewell looks all but certain to take the Oscar for best costume design, after scooping the Bafta and the Critics’ Choice Award. 

Wicked, the musical which tells the origin story of The Wizard of Oz’s Wicked Witch of the West, is also up for best sound, alongside A Complete Unknown, Emilia Pérez, The Wild Robot and Dune: Part Two. The latter won the Bafta last night. 

The sci-fi adventure film also beat Wicked to win the Bafta for special visual effects. The films will face off for the visual effects Oscar next month, with Alien: Romulus, Better Man and Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes also in contention.  

wallace-gromit-vengeance-most-fowl-2025-directed-by-nick-park-and-merlin-crossingham-and-starring-ben-whitehead-peter-kay-and-lauren-patel-gromit-becomes-concerned-about-wallaces-over-relianc A still from Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl. Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

Elsewhere, Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl nabbed the Bafta for best animated film. The movie, which saw the beloved British animated cope with the return of evil penguin Feathers McGraw, also won the best children’s and family film. 

Nick Park, the animator behind Wallace and Gromit, has won two animated short film Oscars for The Wrong Trousers and A Close Shave. He also won for best animated feature film in 2006 for Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit. 

Vengeance Most Fowl is a strong contender in the same category this year, but Dreamwork’s The Wild Robot seems to be the one to beat this year, with Golden Globe winner Flow also one to watch. 

Not much luck of the Irish

Last year saw our very own Cillian Murphy clean up at awards season, winning the Oscar, Bafta, SAG and Golden Globe awards for his starring role in Oppenheimer.

Irish production company Element Pictures  also saw success at the Academy Awards with Poor Things picking up four gold statuettes, including best actress for Emma Stone.

But there is little Irish interest in the Oscars this year. Despite being shortlisted for two nominations, Kneecap failed to score any at this year’s ceremony, while Saoirse Ronan also missed out for a nomination for her roles in The Outrun and Blitz.

nick-emerson-poses-with-the-editing-award-for-conclave-at-the-78th-british-academy-film-awards-baftas-in-london-sunday-feb-16-2025-photo-by-joel-c-ryaninvisionap Nick Emerson poses with the editing award for 'Conclave' at the Baftas. Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

All hopes rest with Northern Ireland’s Nick Emerson to scoop the best editing prize on the night, with current predictions putting him as the frontrunner in the category.

Readers like you are keeping these stories free for everyone...
A mix of advertising and supporting contributions helps keep paywalls away from valuable information like this article. Over 5,000 readers like you have already stepped up and support us with a monthly payment or a once-off donation.

Close
7 Comments
This is YOUR comments community. Stay civil, stay constructive, stay on topic. Please familiarise yourself with our comments policy here before taking part.
Leave a Comment
Submit a report
Please help us understand how this comment violates our community guidelines.
Thank you for the feedback
Your feedback has been sent to our team for review.

Leave a commentcancel

 
JournalTv
News in 60 seconds