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TAOISEACH ENDA KENNY has raised the possibility of a border poll as part of negotiations over the UK’s departure from the European Union.
Comparing the North’s situation to that of East Germany’s absorption into the EU, he said that the clause in the Good Friday Agreement could be triggered, allowing for a referendum on the North’s constitutional status.
His call followed comments from Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin that expressed a hope that Northern opinion would move towards majority support for Irish unification.
Although a slim majority of UK voters supported leaving the European Union in the recent Brexit referendum, a majority in Northern Ireland voted to remain.
The Brexit result raises the prospect of the North being taken out of the EU, against the will of a majority of people there.
Moreover, new British prime minister Theresa May believes Brexit will end the ‘invisible border’ between North and South, and has said border controls may be brought back.
There have been warnings that the resulting EU border could disrupt not only cross-border trade, but possibly the peace process.
One way to ensure Northern Ireland remains in the EU would be to allow it to join the Republic, a current EU member state – but for this to happen, a border poll would first be required.
The Good Friday Agreement recognises that Northern Ireland remains part of the UK due to the consent of the people living there.
But it also provides for the people of the island of Ireland to exercise their right of self-determination by agreement between the people of North and South.
It says that the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland could propose legislation allowing a united Ireland before the UK Parliament.
According to the Agreement, this would happen if…
…the wish expressed by a majority in such a poll is that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland.
But the Agreement adds that a poll will only be held if a majority appear in favour of it in the first place:
The Secretary of State may by order direct the holding of a poll for the purposes of section 1 on a date specified in the order … if at any time it appears like to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland.
Voters in the Republic of Ireland would also have to vote in favour of unification, in a separate poll.
Enda Kenny’s intervention is the first time he has called for a border poll. But it really depends on the British government.
Theresa Villiers, until last week the Northern Ireland Secretary, said she didn’t think the conditions had been met for a border poll. The new NI Secretary, James Brokenshire, has also insisted there’s not enough support.
He said:
There is a clear constitutional settlement in relation to the border poll and it is also clear to me opinion does not support a change.
A majority of the North’s population expressing their desire to secede from the United Kingdom and join a united Ireland would be required, in order for a poll to take place.
And while there are now almost as many people in the North from Catholic households (45%) as from Protestant (48%), that hasn’t quite translated into resounding support for transferring responsibility for the North from London to Dublin.
Speaking to RTÉ’s The Week in Politics at the weekend, former Irish Times editor Geraldine Kennedy said that the Brexit result could require the renegotiation of the Good Friday Agreement.
I hadn’t realised until I went back and read the agreement again how inextricably linked with the EU it is.
The British government may need to consult with Dublin before pulling out of the EU, Kennedy said, adding:
Certainly I’m advised that there would have to be a referendum in Northern Ireland, to dismantle the Belfast Agreement [Good Friday Agreement] and take the EU parts out of it.
And I don’t think anybody has seriously thought that through yet.
Sinn Féin has been trying to drum up support for a border poll for years now, and was quick off the mark in the wake of Brexit, saying the North was going to be dragged out of the EU “on the tails of a vote in England”.
The demand for a border poll, and demands in Scotland for another independence referendum, gained plenty of traction in the London press following Brexit.
Unlike Scotland, though, the position of the North’s pro-EU majority is hampered by the fact its First Minister, Arlene Foster, campaigned to leave the EU.
Foster publicly refused to countenance the Taoiseach’s proposal for an all-island Brexit forum when the two met recently.
A poll of 2,000 people last year conducted by BBC and RTÉ Primetime showed that two-thirds of people in the Republic wanted a united Ireland in their lifetime, but only 30% of people in Northern Ireland supported the move.
Among those surveyed in Northern Ireland from a Catholic background, 57% answered Yes and 29% answered Don’t Know.
In the Republic, the overall support for a united Ireland dropped to 31% “if it meant paying more tax”.
The results slightly contradicted a 2011 survey by Northern Ireland Life and Times. which found that 52% of Northern Irish Catholic respondents favoured union with Britain over a united Ireland.
A 2014 poll by the Belfast Telegraph, meanwhile, found that most people in the North supported a border poll, but that 59.8% would vote No.
Speaking yesterday, Ian Paisley Jr said he thought Taoiseach Enda Kenny’s suggestion of a border poll was “far out, man”.
Paisley insisted that nationalists and unionists alike had “no interest whatsoever” in a united Ireland.
He also argued that Dublin could not afford the cost of unification – echoing the arguments that took place during the 2014 Scottish independence referendum.
In doing so, he perhaps presaged the sort of debate that would happen if the border poll was allowed to go ahead.
It’s a real shame that we have Enda Kenny as Taoiseach at a time when we need strong leadership that can be trusted.
we are blessed to have such a fantastic leader :)
When the Fianna Fail grassroots wake up to the reality that is facing the country there will be huge pressure on the leadership to collapse this incompetent government as quickly as possible.
All praise the leader!
The leader is good, the leader is great, we surrender our will as of this date….
The so called FF grassroots are about 10 years to late walking up , while they slept the country was brought to its knees lost it sovereign and was ruled by the IMF all under FF ……
Child homelessness has increased by 37% in six months
Any chance we could shift done of the blame for child homelessness to the parents(more likely parent) instead of government? Is there no such thing as personal responsibility left in this country or do we Judy constantly blame someone else(notably government) for our issues.
If you tell people they will have to pay more taxes to support the north,they will only vote one way
Just tell them the truth.
€36.5 Billion benefit from Reunification. – The Irish Times.
Coles – that debunked nonsense projection ignores the fact that the UK subsidises the North to the tune of £9 billion per year. This would wipe out any potential gain and more.
Coles – they also completely ignored the increased security cost. They ridiculously stated the study assumes there is no Unionist dissent and therefore no terrorism (which would destroy tourism both sides of the border) no extra Gardai, no extra PSNI and no extra security. Total fantasy.
Pull the subsidies and let the north stand on its own two feet first, when unionists realise that they will have to shoulder the tax burden themselves as well as the loss of EU funding they won’t be long in exploring the possibility of a prosperous future with the south.
Prosperous future? Like our recent past…
They already have a well equipped police force up north for dealing with that sort of act, why would we need extra security when it is already prepared for?
The 9 billion ‘subsidies’ are no more than is received by 5 other economic regions in the UK. Northern Ireland is not unique in that respect.
This figure would likely be lower when you reduce the duplication of services that currently exist between North and south.
The main issue is the lack will, the people north and south are not interested in unification.
Britain issues it’s own currency and so can always afford (in financial terms) the cost of running Northern Ireland. The only concerns are the availability of real resources (e.g. manpower) and the political will to deploy those resources in NI.
The Republic does not have the same monetary freedom as the nation is no longer a currency issuer having ceded that power to E.U/ECB. A united Ireland within the Euro would face a budget constraint and would need to borrow from the financial markets or depend on the goodwill of the E.U to fund any deficits.
Depending on the goodwill of the E.U is not a sustainable policy as the working class of Greece, Spain, Portugal and the ROI have discovered.
We have Zero say in the poll down South as its only the six Counties who vote.. So going on about how much it will cost to support a United Ireland has absolute no relevance… Its written into the Good Friday Agreement that a border poll will happen and even if it costs hundreds of billions we down South have to accept the result of the poll..
If East and West Germany can reunify, Ireland can too.
@Coles @Brinster
It doesn’t take into account the almost certain re-ignition of full scale violence by people who are dragged into a new country against their will
@Ignore
There is no comparison.
@Cosmo
The island can only be united by a majority vote in both Ireland and Northern Ireland. If its rejected in either it is rejected.
Issuing your own currency aint the be all and end all… I vaguely remember us issuing our own currency up to recently and we still got into shite… The soviet union and Zimbabwe used to as well,and that didnt work out too well…
@ Craba
I believe a border poll ‘vote’ would only be held in Northern Ireland, the republic of Ireland has already agreed to the terms laid out by the Good Friday agreement, which was ratified after the referendum in 1998 – The Nineteenth Amendment.
@Meanderingsz
Thats not the case.
Craba the vote will only take place in the North. North and South have already voted for the Good Friday Agreement and in that agreement is a stipulation that at sometime in the future a vote will take place in the North only on a United Ireland.. There will be no such vote down South as we already voted for the Good Friday Agreement.. So you and everyone else who red thumbed my original comment know your facts before you harp on about how much it will cost us down South.. We have no say in the matter..
Cosmo & Meanderingsz
Firstly I never thumb comments, its a complete nonsense
Secondly, you are both correct on the border poll, it is just for the people of Northern Ireland. And if the majority of people in Northern Ireland voted to leave the UK, then the onus is on the British government to pass legislation to accommodate that.
But, for there to be a united Ireland, there would need to be a referendum in Ireland as per Article 3 of the Irish constitution, which was inserted in 1998 as part of the GFA.
laughable to think that the republic wouldnt have its own vote on the matter. it would be a resounding no on economics alone
The Republic already owed the UK £7 billion loaned to support this country during the bank bailout, so when do we pay that back…..
I gave you a big green thumb from my red hand Craba!
I’m all for self-determination, but that can be achieved by NI become its own independent state, as opposed to joining ROI. I don’t think we’d want them, given the choice. The North has been an expensive jurisdiction for the UK to run.
A significant and unusually high amount of the population work in the public sector indicating that London has been subsidising work-schemes to keep the unemployment rate artificially low. We can’t afford to give them the same treatment.
If they were to become independent of the U.K. now if they wish, perhaps they can take a few years as a separate state to get themselves into a stable and self-sufficient footing. Then after a while there can be a border-poll if both sides are in favour.
Doing a border poll now would be foolish, I wouldn’t say it’d pass.
you are right it is foolish but i would still welcome the opportunity to reject the north and its people :)
Tommy the troll
The likelyhood is that the losing side would be bitter in defeat and all the sh!t that went on before would reemergereemerge. If there has to be a border poll the results should be announced only on July 12th next year because in the event of a unionist it would be too much to have to watch two lots of triumphalist matches every year.
What happens if they vote to leave the uk and then the republic rejects him. It’s like dumping the wife only to get dumped by the one you were to run away with. The wife doesnt want you back
Inteteresting times ahead for your cultural lamp post and kerb painters, Tommy Mac especially with your motherland Scotland seeking her freedom.If the motherland goes the Tories will do what’s best for their electorate and will push for Irish unity.If the electorate in the colony reject reunification the Tories will probably whack the colony up on EBay,no way are the Tories going to stick their hands in their pockets to fund a loss making vsnity project such as the colony.
tommy red thumbs
Brian being an independent state would defeat the reason for leaving the UK and the vote as they would still be out of the EU
Brian, Northern Ireland will never go it alone. It’s simply not an option. It’s either remain part of the U.K. or reunification.
Ever wonder why no politician ever mentions this as an option?
The more desperate you get the more blissful Schadenfreude I feel. Your little loyal Irish hating ship is sinking fast, a little like that other epic fail built in East Belfast. You had 100 years and all you brought to the table was hate. Karma is not on your side.
Tommy Red hand
Love to leave the red hand print on his face, a beautiful 9 countie slap to the cheek
@tomny unless you have something remotely constructive to say can you plz shut the f*ck up
It’s summer school talk. I really cannot see a majority of NI voters wanting to leave the UK. If I was asked do I want them at present I’d vote no.
it would never pass in the north never mind the the republic. i do welcome the narrative though as it gives us a perfect opportunity to rightfully tell nordies a few home truths about their scrounging ways :D
€36.5 Billion benefit from Reunification. – The Irish Times.
they can flash their tits any way then want coles, it the people we reject, always have, always will :)
The first step in reunification is to start debating it. Brexit has speeded up this process. Thank you DUP.
Coles, it seems like a bad deal for the Republic considering that NI has an annual budget deficit of €12bn that we’d be paying for.
£12 Billion? Where did you get that figure? Most recent figures show a fiscal deficit of £9 billion of which £4.5 billion of goes towards UK military, UK debt servicing.
The research shows the economic benefits of reunification.
Different currencies.
Coles, are you able to tell us anything about the Knights of the Red Branch of California who commissioned this report? No one seems keen to be clear on that. The last time out, the most coherent response came from our friend in Tyrone who offered the opinion that it didn’t matter whether it was commissioned by Mickey Mouse or the loyalist front organisation that used to use that title.
My guess is that Merkel made suggestions in that direction a few weeks ago when Kenny visited. Would love to see a united Ireland. Financially it would be difficult initially but down the line the benefits would be huge both economically and tourism wise. The political implications though and the Unionist response to this is the only unknown. Tinder box scenario perhaps but I guess a vote would let us know just how far away we are from that happening. It cant hurt to find out
Ya, the tourists will flood in when the loyalist dregs start blowing the shit€ out of the nationalist dregs and vice versa….
Remember over 70% of folk in NI want to be part of the UK, what right do we have to interfere in their country. We gave up that right almost 100 years ago.
Saoirse that’s naive, even if the majority in the North were to vote for unification in the future, what’s certain is that the vast majority of the Unionists will be voting for the Union. You would be dragging a people out of their beloved union. There would be violence on a massive scale, and Dublin would no doubt be targeted. Let’s leave well enough alone, we’re doing just fine as we are.
Just like Irish people up North are kept out of there beloved country.
*their.
I think they can travel down to the republic whenever they want no? I’ve never heard of a law that keeps Irish people out of the republic?
Fred, and what about those of us who were abandoned by our countrymen into a new state that treated us like shit for decades. Thanks for that. Typical, I’m alright Jack attitude.
So Fred a non viable statlet formed through Unionist violence and a sectarian head count, propped up with British Threats of further violence, Lloyd Georges “immediate and terrible war”. Your solution is let it remain dividing our island and people becuse it will just lead to more violence from them. Get of your knees croppy!!!
@M Bowe
Not sure where you learned you history, Northern Ireland was formed as part of the peace negotiations following the war of Independence. It has survived the guts of 100 years. That’s even with nationalist terrorist organisations trying to destablise it over the last 50 years or so.
“croppy” wow! There is a blast from a long forgotten past.
When you think it through, upon unification the British Army would withdraw. The Irish army would then enter the North, and would immediately be targeted by the UVF types. It would be a mirror image of the troubles, except Irish Army targets all over the island would be targeted, and civilians targets in Dublin would be hit in order to bring us to the negotiating table to make us withdraw from the North.
All a bunch of hypotheticals with no basis in reality. Unionist paramilitaries were primarily jumped up drug dealers with all decisions and weapons provided directly by London or through ‘informants’. Without a blind eye and funding from a corrupt state, they would be crushed in a week. Everyone knows these people and organisations inside out.
The original constitution of Ireland recognized the jurisdiction of Ireland as being the entire island of Ireland. The Good Friday Agreement solidified the right for a minority to Partition and to remain part of the U.K. If say we have a border poll and a majority in NI vote for a United Ireland but 2 of the 6 counties vote to remain part of the U.K, wouldn’t they claim the same right or precedent to remain part of the U.K.?
is that the GFA where the shinners accepted the queen as head of state? what loyal little subjects the shinners are :D
Troll
an i wrong in saying that the recent polls that only 30% favour a united Ireland, meaning that there is no appetite for a border poll at all. all this political stirring (from nationalist and Irish politicians) is based on the people of NI wanting the whole of the UK to remain in Europe, not change how they feel about Ireland?
Alien8, the first poll when the Scottish referendum was announced was similar. Polls change.
@ Andrew. Scotland rejected leaving the UK, remember? They’re not independent.
I never said they were Brinster. I said polls change. The only important poll will be the unification referendum.
there would have to be two referendums and there wouldnt be a hope of either getting through, sure the shinners cant even convince nationalists never mind anyone else
Dane, the only guarantee in the running of a unification referendum is that you would continue to spout complete and utter bollocks the whole way up to the vote. Not everything in the world revolves around shinners, you seem quite obsessed about them though. Unrequited love I presume? ☺
In my view – an appealing UI, in order to swing the vote in the North, would require much soul searching, reconciliation with the past, an entente cordiale with those who consider themselves British on this island; but most challenging, all of this would likely require seismic constitutional changes. Those who think that the prospect of continued EU membership is enough of a carrot to entice the majority in the North to join the Republic under its current setup are kidding themselves. Any UI, in my view, could not and should not be a case of extending the current Republic to the North. What we would have to be talking about would be an entirely new Second Irish Republic. The constitution, the flag, the anthem, the Oireachtas, the Presidency, local councils, the Gardai.. all of it be on the table. it’s hard to see how it would not be a case of starting over completely – this is the real challenge and it’s to the people of the whole island.
Nail on the head Inish Eoin!
Some interesting thoughts there Eoin. If you had a platform at Glenties or similar, I’d go to hear you develop the ideas you outline.
Much sense coming from the part of our Republic more Northern than Northern Ireland. Well said Inish.
Sit back do nothing wait for the eu funds to dry up once brixit happens, they’ll all want a united island of sorts then
No i acutually want the poll now for that reason. There like the brexitiers they can’t pick and choose. If the don’t want to join fair enough but not one red cent will cross the border.
Endas only taking it into consideration now because the Mr Juncker told him to take the north into the EU for obvious reasons. Because he wants to punish Britain for leaving.
It seems to me that the solution is staring them in the face. Northern Ireland should seek a status similar to the Isle of Man or the Channel Islands. These entities are self governing crown dependencies with the U.K. responsible for their defence and foreign relations and neither joined the EU. Could not the reverse happen with the north and, for that matter, Scotland?
No can’t happen have to be a independent country to join eu
rejecting nordies is part of our DNA :)
Fine Gael DNA.
correct as FG DNA is a reflection of Irish DNA, as FG are the peoples party :)
Fine Gael, the partitionist party.
Fg are fools, as are you
Tommy mcdonagh. FG are the peoples crooks, an evil bunch with an evil halfwit in charge!
Don’t feed Tommy McDonagh the hungry Troll
Tommy is yfg
The passage of time will confer the inevitable.
if i was facing a leadership crisis like baron adams i too would be deflecting any way i could.
If I was facing a leadership crisis like Dame Enda, I too would be deflecting any way I could ☺
tell them that their health service with go to ruin and that they will have to pay more for insurance, cars and food see how they will vote then
The Irish Time/US report is full of assumptions/presumptions – which are steps too far, even for the academic who wrote it.
But it does, at least, confirm the net £9 billion that NI costs the UK every year.
With a National Debt of about E200 billion – there is no way we could afford to take on NI.
E1,000,000,000 – every month – is beyond us….well beyond….
the GFA will have to be scrapped as the north ireland is no longer in the EU, i would welcome this
Ireland, better together.
The northerners being forcefully removed from the EU against their wishes isn’t our problem, not really sure why we’d accept personal sacrifice to get them out of their mess.
We should face the fact the North can never be part of the South, they way off life for all up there is different, then theirs those who live and work on both sides of the boarder,
In this day and age were, were we are colonized by big corporations, we should put history were it is in the pass and learn from and make a better world / life for all,
It’s Enda talking, for heaven’s sake. He’s totally out of touch with reality, has he even thought of the better ways he could use the money a border poll is going to cost? We couldn’t afford to take on the Northern economy, we can’t manage our own. I don’t believe for a second hesOr is he hoping for loads more dosh to be poured into the country by Brussels after unification to .build the new state?
We need to have a United ireland because basically all of “Irish history” is about fighting the British “England” just look at it ……. Ull see what i mean. Plus the North / the whole of ireland was Taking from us by the brittish in the First Place . Therefore we should get it all back….. Like America / Australia and India they all got their full independence from Britain and so should we…. It’s only fair . And you can’t call your place home when you planted it because it will never be your home… It’s like me and 20,000 others coming to a county in England and declaring its ours and we kill anyone who tries to stop us…. It’s not democracy the north didn’t vote to join the uk….. It was taken by force and the unionists shouldn’t have a say … They should be deported to The England . Just becaus their families live there doesn’t give them the right to say should they join Ireland or not . NATO and the European Union should force Britain to hand over the counties to Ireland . The 6 counties in the north is still a British occupation.. They need our help and that’s why their should be s border pol but more importantly there’s Brits living there and they think the north is there’s (part of the uk) scrap the good Friday agreement and hand the counties back…. And there’s studies done that shows Ireland would benefit from it (look it up if your having doubts ) and that’s besides the point because sovereignty shouldn’t be decided by money….. sovereignty Is more important than money.
The lack of respect that Paisley showed our Taoiseach was appalling although I am not a great fan of Endas but still respect him. Their is an old saying BLACK CAT BLACK KITTEN it’s like Junior has made up his mind on a vote for united Ireland but thanks be to God he is only one voice.
Yes vote you get to stay in Ireland no vote pack your bags there’s plenty of Gaels around the world that would like to live in a United Ireland! Plus we would sort out the north it worked for ethnic Germans after the Second World War or should I say the countries their families lived for centuries before they were turfed out!
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