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YOU MIGHT SLEEP a little better tonight if you don’t live in one of these ten cities.
Swiss Re, a global reinsurance company, has analyzed the disaster potential for 616 of the world’s largest cities.
Each city is ranked according to its potential for earthquakes, storms, storm surges, tsunamis, and river floods. For each type of disaster, Swiss Re devised an extreme weather scenario in which defenses fail and the human and economic toll can be enormous.
Further, each city was ranked based on the effect each scenario would have on its residents by combining population-distribution data and vulnerability estimates for each disaster.
The scenarios consider fatalities, injuries, evacuations, those whose homes would be damaged or destroyed, and those who would be unable to access their workplace.
15.6 million people potentially affected.
Tehran sits on one of the most dangerous fault lines in the world — the North Anatolian fault. The entire population of the city is heavily exposed to earthquakes.
16.4 million people potentially affected.
Los Angeles, like much of California, sits along the San Andreas Fault, making it one of the most earthquake-prone places in the world; 14.7 million people are at risk directly of earthquakes at any given time in the city
16.7 million people potentially affected.
Shanghai, China’s most populated city, is located on the Yangtze River Delta, making it vulnerable to serious flooding from storms and typhoons. Its long coastline and the large volume of water flowing through the city make it especially at risk.
17.9 million people potentially affected.
Kolkata is situated near the world’s largest river delta, which makes it susceptible to flooding nearly every year. The drainage system, which is more than 140 years old, covers less than half of the city. Cyclones, tsunamis, and storm surges could also affect the city, which is ill prepared to deal with a natural disaster.
22.9 million people potentially affected.
Many of Japan’s major cities are situated directly along the Ring of Fire, a continuous series of active fault lines that account for 90% of the world’s earthquakes. Tsunamis — caused or compounded by earthquakes — are a major risk in Nagoya, where they have the potential to be devastating.
27.7 million people potentially affected.
A lack of planning can exacerbate the effects of natural disasters, a phenomenon which has taken root in Jakarta. Rains, insufficient drainage, and the fact that 40% of Jakarta is below sea level ensure that the city continually experiences floods.
The government agreed to build two dams this year to help matters, but that does nothing to ease the other dangers that Jakarta faces — namely earthquakes. Situated near a fault line, Jakarta is prone to earthquakes, which are magnified by the soft, poorly drained soil.
32.1 million people potentially affected.
In 1995, the Great Hanshin earthquake devastated the Osaka-Kobe area, killing more than 6,000 people and causing $100 billion in damage. Another earthquake like that could easily hit again, and the city wouldn’t be much more prepared. Because the city is on a coastal plain, the area is vulnerable to storm surges and ranks third for cities at risk of tsunamis.
34.5 million people potentially affected.
The urban density of the Pearl River Delta is unprecedented. Centered on vast floodplains are the massive cities of Shenzhen, Hong Kong, Dongguan, Macau, and Ghangzhou. It’s the No. 1 area at risk for storm surge, the third highest for cyclonic wind damage, and the fifth highest for river floods.
34.6 million people potentially affected.
Manila may have gotten lucky during super Typhoon Haiyan, dodging the worst that the storm had to offer, but next time it might not be. Nearly half of Manila’s population is seriously at risk of earthquake damage and the city is severely affected by high wind speeds and severe storms. Flooding has become a near-annual disaster, plaguing the city in 2012 and 2013.
57.1 million people potentially affected.
The Tokyo-Yokohama region is at severe risk of nearly every potential calamity: earthquakes, monsoons, river floods, and tsunamis. Nearly 80% of the population is seriously exposed at any time to large earthquakes. In addition, Tokyo is located on an active fault in the Pacific, making it especially at risk for tsunamis.
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So ireland is importing millions of tonnes of soy to feed to cows to export 85% of beef and dairy produced abroad while being an overall net importer of calories and barely growing any of our own fruit and veg. Sounds a bit precarious.
@eoin fitzpatrick: zero linked up thinking.
@eoin fitzpatrick: Not true, I grew a few apples and had a great crop of rushes this year.
@eoin fitzpatrick: Lol! beautifully put. All so a handful of people can earn more profits.
@eoin fitzpatrick: there are no govt handouts for growing fruit. Farmers follow the handouts of OUR taxes to them to pollute and chop down trees.
What would happen to Irish milk production if all this imported feed wasn’t available?
If one was to believe the hype it’s all based on our “grass based system “. ….but grass alone won’t provide the nutrients that Irish cows need to produce the large volumes of milk the dairy industry requires …..this article highlights the shallowness behind the “grass based system” propaganda that the Irish public consistently hear from the dairy industry in this country…
@Padraig G: It is grass based as you call it. The bulk of what cattle eat is grass, be it fresh during the summer or preserved during the winter. But dried and fermented grass (hay and silage) during the winter does not provide everything. This is when animal feeds are used. After all, milk production runs 12 months a year, and proper fresh grass is only available for half that.
@Padraig G: BTW, I forgot to say, Maize and Barley, along with all the other cereals, are types of grass.
@Joe x: thanks for your feedback but most dairy farms I visit provide meal to their cows 12 months of the year….but your missing the point of the article, Ireland’s high intensity dairy model is totally reliant on overseas animal feed….there is no way the average dairy farm in Ireland could sustain the level of milk production we have at present on grass alone …Look at the wet summer we just had , plenty of farmers were providing meal rations to keep milk yields up ….
@Padraig G: But most of the animal feeds are grass based, which is what you were contending in the first place.
To me, the point of the article has nothing to do with what the animals are being fed anyway. By highlighting it in the title and being the first section they discussed, they turned it into a climate issue when nothing is further from the truth, especially when you look at how it is transported, as much as they can fit on one ship.
The real issue is why the farming sector has taken the route it did, which is simply down to cost. The dairy and beef sectors find it cheaper, and the tillage farmers can’t let it go any cheaper. Otherwise, none of them can make a living in modern Ireland
@Padraig G: We’re not meant to drink calves milk, we don’t have 4 stomachs.
I wonder if there is any mention in the article of the restrictions placed on beef farmers. An animal has to killed before it is 24 months otherwise there are big penalties. The beef barron and the factories have access to all the farmer data. The know how many animals are in the country and what age they are. Now if you want to have a beef animal factory fit for 24 months you have to feed grains. There is no alternative and yet farmers want the 24 month rule lifted and its not. It was bought in during the BSE scare back in the 2000s. The rule makes the factories richer and bad for the environment because we have to import feed. What is the difference between 24month and 34 month beef. There is no difference. Beef in Ireland is a monopoly. The same animal in the UK makes €400 per head more than in Ireland. Our farmers are being robbed by the processors and the only profitable sector left is milk.
@Washpenrebel: my point is that its not financially possible to finish our beef of just a grass based diet because the rules in place. Man made rules that are worse for the environment.
Funny how the first thing they concentrated on was the carbon footprint of importing the feed instead of asking why so much is being imported and not grown locally. Stating that it could be grown at home is stating the obvious, after all cereals have been grown on this island for hundreds, if not thousands, of years. The problem is cost for both dairy farmers to buy it local as it is cheaper to buy it in, so that they can have a living wage and tillage farmers to sell it local as animal feed as they cannot afford to sell it any cheaper, otherwise they will not have a living wage either. It’s the cost of things in this country that affect everything else as usual. .
Give the farmers a break and treat them as if they were Data centers or even better the Aviation industry whose emissions are also overlooked as they are not considered in our national emissions targets.
@john dennehy: Are you actually admitting that farming is causing serious issues for the planet. WoW!! The I.F.A. will love you for that!
Great article and FOI providing a great service to inform the public to make their choices. Our dairy cows are fed too much imported meal despite not yielding very much. Denmark produces 2/3 as much milk with 0.5m cows as we do with 1.7m cows. The answer is obvious.
@john mounsey: do you know that Ireland is one of if not the best place for milk in the world. We have some of the toughest restrictions in place which is why we produce a huge amount of the world’s baby milk. Grass is key to top quality milk and we grow grass better than anywhere else in the world. Its something we should be proud of but we have a group of people that love hammering farmers who work on average 14 to 18 hours a day.
@Washpenrebel: Our infant formula exports are dropping, was 620m euros to China in 2017, dropped to 266m last year. Hence poor milk proce for dairy farmers here.
@john mounsey: Dairy farmers all over the world are suffering because of the prices. There are many farmers in the leaving because its not paying enough. Same in Australia. Governments all over the world are making it harder for farmers and there will be a food shortage in the future. This is guaranteed. We live in the age of the internet and we can see what’s happening in other countries
@Washpenrebel: Its not the ‘player’ it’s the game.
Humanity, for what it is worth, is foolish in a particular way.
Climate is far too technical for most people, so retreating to the Earth science of biology is perhaps the best course to undo considerable damage to research by scientific method modelling.
Origin of Species attempted to use prejudice as a means to control perspectives of humans and who constitutes the title of superior and inferior ‘races’.
Just like carbon footprint, carbon emissions or some other buzzwords, natural selection/eugenics was once a major topic in society and found its full implementation in WWII as the Holocaust.
People are so distracted with the symptoms of modelling that they hardly are aware that scientific method modelling is the only issue.
So people with stature to deal with a serious topic just do not exist, and that is no insult but stated with deep dismay.
People want to consume dairy products and Ireland is one of the most climate friendly countries in the world to do this.
It is nonsense to say by supposed academic leaders that we should participate in solving this global problem by exporting dairy production to much less climate efficient countries.
The media climate B/S never ends,
Lovely emissions heavy feed, the best kind of feed
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