HOW AND WHEN the restrictions on the Irish public during the Covid-19 crisis are lifted will have to be examined “very carefully” in order to prevent a “potentially very dangerous peak” of new cases here, Professor Philip Nolan from the National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET) has said.

The chair of the NPHET’s Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group told RTÉ Radio One’s This Week programme that there is a “real danger” of a second wave of coronavirus cases if the correct actions aren’t taken when deciding to lift restrictions.

Currently, people in Ireland are being told to stay at home with exceptions including those engaged in essential work, shopping for essential groceries and exercise no more than 2km from home.

Taoiseach Leo Varadkar extended these restrictions to last until 5 May, and gardaí have special powers to enforce these restrictions amid the Covid-19 crisis.

It is not yet clear which restrictions – such as those on the opening of businesses – will be lifted after that, and Professor Nolan said today that if the wrong approach is taken we could be facing into a “second wave” that could be potentially “very dangerous”. 

He said that at present Ireland seems to be in a “stable situation” in terms of the number of new cases being confirmed here.

The reproduction rate of the coronavirus here - which is the number of other people infected by one confirmed case – is approaching just one person which shows that the social distancing measures introduced are having a positive effect, Nolan said.

However, more needs to be done to ensure that this number falls below one person, he said. Seeing where this figure is at ahead of 5 May will help to determine what approach should be taken regarding restrictions beyond that.

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“As we look to modify restrictions, there’s a real danger if we don’t do it very carefully we’ll get a second wave of disease,” he said, adding that if authorities get this “wrong” then a dangerous second peak of cases is possible.

A testing regime of the highest standard will also be needed if restrictions are to be safely lifted. Having encountered problems in the number of tests being done in recent week, the government is aiming to dramatically increase its testing over the coming weeks and be able to turn around a test within 48 hours.

Professor Nolan emphasised the importance of adhering to the social distancing guidelines in the coming weeks, and said that people who don’t have symptoms should act like there’s a possibility they have the virus and take all necessary precautions to avoid it spreading to others.