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BILLIONAIRE BUSINESSMAN DONALD Trump has in the past eight months defied his critics and proven his White House bid is not simply a surreal stunt.
To the shock of the political world, the 69-year-old onetime reality TV star’s nomination to be the Republican presidential candidate is now a genuine possibility.
His populist campaign has morphed into a national protest movement against Washington elites and establishment “politicians.”
He has rallied fiscal and social conservatives as well as moderate Republicans who could propel him to the nomination — but the GOP trophy will depend on the behaviour of other party rivals still in the race.
The crowded field shrank by one after Saturday’s South Carolina primary slugfest, leaving five: Trump, Senators Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, and two underdogs — Ohio Governor John Kasich and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson.
Trump has a solid support base of about 30-35% of the Republican vote: He won New Hampshire with 35% and South Carolina with 32.5%. In national polls, he is averaging about 34% support.
So long as the remaining votes are divided between other candidates, as occurred in the first three nomination contests, Trump appears unbeatable.
And from 15 March, most states will award their delegates via the winner-take-all method, which would help Trump clinch the nomination before the Republican convention in July in Cleveland.
But if several others withdraw — as Jeb Bush, the son of one president and brother of another, did Saturday after faring poorly in South Carolina — voters could in theory elevate a challenger capable of uniting the Republican electorate against Trump.
“I do think Trump has a ceiling, probably around 40%, and that he’s not going to do much better than that,” explained University of Massachusetts political science professor Brian Schaffner, who also directs the UMass Poll.
Trump might snag some voters from Carson, who is popular with evangelicals, should the doctor drop out, and he is likely to earn trickles of support from Bush and others who suspend their campaigns.
But Schaffner has studied surveys about voters’ second, third and fourth choices, and has concluded that it’s pretty black or white on Trump.
“Most of the people who don’t support him really have no interest in supporting him,” and the majority of those who had backed Bush or Kasich — symbols of the establishment — would switch allegiance to either Cruz or Rubio, he explained.
‘A three-person race’
Trump has no patience or use for the calculations of such “geniuses,” and who can blame him? He has defied expectations daily since last summer.
“They don’t understand that as people drop out,” Trump said Saturday night,
“I’m going to get a lot of those votes also.”
Indeed, voters are hardly beholden to the prognostications of political experts. They may be more sensitive to personality traits than political platforms.
Trump’s undisputable talent “is to keep the focus on him” and not necessarily his policies, generic as they are, said Timothy Hagle, a professor of political science at the University of Iowa.
America’s political left has essentially anointed Trump a bona fide frontrunner.
“Nothing is certain in politics,” wrote Josh Marshall, editor of web-based Talking Points Memo.
But it’s time to dispense with any faith-based logic that disputes the fact that Donald Trump is now the overwhelming favourite to win the Republican nomination.
Cruz, a champion of the religious right, is struggling to reach voters beyond his arch-conservative core, but he is determined to hang on.
Rubio nipped Cruz for second place on Saturday in South Carolina, consolidating his position as the mainstream darling.
“After tonight, this has become a three-person race, and we will win the nomination!” Rubio told cheering supporters.
There are indeed some obstacles in Trump’s path, notably involving his campaign organisation.
“Can he expand his campaign to more than one state at a time?” Hagle asked.
Eleven states across the country will cast ballots in Republican nominating contests on Super Tuesday (1 March), and Trump’s campaign team has fewer staff and volunteers — and less ground experience — than his well-stocked rivals.
There is also the scenario in which Trump, Cruz and Rubio remain in the race until the July convention, with none having managed to secure an absolute majority of delegates — 1,237 out of the 2,472 available.
Should that unfold, after a first round of voting, delegates would be released from their initial commitments and could vote for the candidate of their choosing in the second round.
Woe to whoever predicts the outcome in that scenario.
Fair fooks to all involved. Ashamed to say I’d not known it was on.
When is the next one?
What a great city
Was there only one photographer in dublin, couldn’t have got a pic outside Dublin no? Typical!! Not to put dampener on it as was great cause fair play to those who ran, just a gentle reminder to media life exists outside of DUBLIN!!!!
G’wan the chip on the shoulder. . . .
Feckin dubs ha!!
Does it really?
Ah sure we’re all friends. . . I’m sure there will be photos of the cork run somewhere tomorrow.all the journalists on the score.ie are too busy trying to come up with more Roy keane articles for us then to worry about the night run anywhere else!!
Well done to everyone involved in this including my amazing brother in law Gary Seery all the running for such good causes :)
Ran the race last night, had a great time :) thanks to all the organisers & volunteers for their free time & support. Well Done to all all over the Country & further a field.
Saw one of these in Vienna a couple weeks ago..really cool idea
Should be ran in the phoniex park.
Except for the lack of street lighting away from Chesterfield Avenue, it’s a nicer run but not practical for a run in the dark.
I ran in Kilkenny with some friends.lovely night for it
The reason i was suggesting it should be ran in the park is for a number of obvious reasons.
Free traffic congestion
Free parking where ever you want.
Free lighting (generatated lighting).
Don’t get me wrong i agree with the purpose of the run for charities and all that and i salute everybody that run’s the race…..just think its more of a suitable place.
have your say