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Brian Hayes Leon Farrell/Photocall Ireland

Here’s who’s in the running to take Brian Hayes's vacant Dáil seat

The junior minister’s departure creates a vacancy in his Dublin South-West Dáil constituency.

FINE GAEL TD Brian Hayes’s election to the European Parliament earlier this week means that two political positions have opened up.

The now vacant office of Minister of State for the OPW and junior finance minister is likely to be reassigned in the Cabinet reshuffle next month.

But of more interest to politicos will be the by-election for his Dáil seat in Dublin South-West which will be hotly-contested by the political parties later this year. 

Hayes’s election on Monday meant he immediately vacated his Dáil seat and his departure for Brussels automatically triggers a by-election for his seat in the Dáil within six months.

The coalition parties

Fine Gael will not be overly confident of retaining the seat given the party’s performance in the local and European elections and the strong working class vote in the area.

The party will either run Senator Cáit Keane, who came fifth in the four-seat constituency in the 2011 general election, or else opt to blood a younger candidate and give them electoral experience with the likes of Emer Higgins, Colm BrophyAnne-Marie Dermody and, even, Kenneth Egan in the mix.

Keane, a former Progressive Democrats councillor, has remained active and prominent in the area in recent years, particularly around the Terenure and Templeogue areas which are her strongholds.

The party may opt for her given the experiment of running the well-known, but politically inexperienced, Eamonn Coghlan in Dublin West didn’t go to plan as he finished fifth and put in a dreadful performance in an important TV debate.

Labour, which holds two of the four Dáil seats (Pat Rabbitte and Eamonn Maloney), could run councillor Mick Duff, who has a strong support base in Tallaght. Or it could opt for Pamela Kearns.

The party is unlikely to win the seat which means it could opt to field a younger candidate to give them new experience. In that case, one strong contender would be the newly-elected Martina Genockey who shot to national prominence during the election campaign.

The opposition

Former Fianna Fáil TD Charlie O’Connor, who won a seat on South Dublin County Council last week, is likely to look at regaining the Dáil seat he lost in 2011 when he finished sixth, ahead of former minister Conor Lenihan who has since left politics. But the former government party may seek to bring in a fresh face in the form of councillor John Lahart.

Sinn Féin holds one Dáil seat in the area through its foreign affairs spokesperson Seán Crowe and will be expected to poll strongly, particularly in light of its success in some wards in the constituency where it got enough of a vote to take three or four seats but only had two candidates. Its likely candidate is councillor Cathal King but Eoin Ó Broin might also come into contention.

One possible independent candidate is former South Dublin mayor Dermot Looney who resigned from Labour over its policies in government. He was easily re-elected to the council on a non-party ticket last weekend and would poll strongly.

The Socialist Party could run either Mick Murphy, who has competed in every election in the constituency since 1997, or offer Paul Murphy, its outgoing MEP, a chance to restart his political career by running for the Dáil.

Note: A version of this article was originally published on 29 January 2014 and has been republished now that Hayes has been elected to the European Parliament. 

Read: A Ming Dynasty? Here’s who’s in the running to take the MEP’s vacant Dáil seat

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62 Comments
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    Mute Jenny McCabe
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    Apr 14th 2022, 12:48 PM

    So basically to be able to afford an average home in an average location a couple/family need to earn 80571 minimum per annum. Before any children are taken into account and a 28k deposit to boot. With all the other inflation recently how are people expected to ever get in the property market. FFFG have so much to answer for!

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    Mute Zippy
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    Apr 14th 2022, 3:12 PM

    @Jenny McCabe: 2 average salaries

    57
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    Mute Sean McCarthy
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    Apr 14th 2022, 4:05 PM

    @Zippy: I think that is the real thing that is not being considered here. A couple may have to buy a house together with 2 salaries. When the couple decides to have a family and after they have the family extremely difficult decisions are made. Enormous amounts of incalculable hardship are put on working families as a result. You can’t calculate that on any spreadsheet.

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    Mute Paul Hedderman
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    Apr 14th 2022, 4:13 PM

    @Sean McCarthy: Kids and extra expenses should be easily affordable when the max mortgage you can get, bar getting an exemption, is 3.5 times the salaries……. a person/couple on 80k is easily able to afford a house at 282k, even people on less salary could. Many people are locked out of the housing market because of this rule.

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    Mute Frank Cauldhame
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    Apr 14th 2022, 5:00 PM

    @Paul Hedderman: Most people don’t earn anything near the ‘average’ weekly wage, these figures which are often quoted by government ministers come from the CSO but a more forensic analysis would indicate that the average ‘median’ wage to be a more accurate reflection. In 2020 the average median wage for a couple living together was circa €49k. Now multiply that by 3.5.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/election-2020-fact-check-is-the-average-income-really-47-000-1.4155272

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    Mute Paul Hedderman
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    Apr 14th 2022, 5:52 PM

    @Frank Cauldhame: that has nothing to do with my point about mortgage affordably after drawdown and the 3.5 times rule.

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    Mute Frank Cauldhame
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    Apr 14th 2022, 6:18 PM

    @Paul Hedderman: I’m not arguing your comment Paul, merely pointing out the reality of the situation with regard to the majority of people with goals of owning their own home. Its nigh on impossible. The housing Minister must think we are eejits by using phrases like ‘Affordable Housing’ to describe these schemes.

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    Mute Rob Gale
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    Apr 14th 2022, 1:17 PM

    “Housing for all plan IS working!” – an angry Darragh O’Brien.
    At what point can he admit that ‘housing for all’ is working, but not for the public. It’s working for investors and developers. As it was designed to, no matter what he huffs n puffs about on prime time.

    249
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    Mute Esper Anto
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    Apr 14th 2022, 1:54 PM

    @Rob Gale: or the Housing F’ all plan as it might be better described

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    Mute David Corrigan
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    Apr 14th 2022, 3:19 PM

    @Rob Gale: But, but, but they built 8 affordable homes in 2021 Rob!!! That’s serious progress in O’Brien’s thick head.

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    Mute transik
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    Apr 14th 2022, 3:40 PM

    @David Corrigan: i been on that affordable house list for 3 years. Finally last december they ask for deposit and send me drawings and ask to pick the house. Great.
    Last month got the email suddenly saying they cant build becouse of matetial costs they returned my deposit and wish me good luck.

    3 f years.

    49
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    Mute David Corrigan
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    Apr 14th 2022, 4:05 PM

    @transik: That’s desperate altogether. A back to square one scenario after 3 years.

    39
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    Mute Burt Macklin
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    Apr 14th 2022, 8:01 PM

    @transik: That is awful! Sorry to hear that.

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    Mute Dean
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    Apr 14th 2022, 12:46 PM

    Which will be rented on to the Irish at rack-renting prices. As renting is becoming the default housing mode under privatization plans.

    Average rent nationwide is 1,500+ per month. While the avergae wage (after tax) is 2,600+ per month. (Or 40k anually).

    So rent is about 57% of a person’s wages, on average.

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    Mute transik
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    Apr 14th 2022, 3:44 PM

    @Dean: in dublin 1500€ will get you a studio.

    59
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    Mute PositiveMe
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    Apr 14th 2022, 12:42 PM

    Was nothing learned from the last bubble

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    Mute Merlin Lancelot
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    Apr 14th 2022, 12:51 PM

    @PositiveMe: this time it’s not a bubble. It’s real increase in demand outpacing any real capability of supplying new houses.

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    Mute Joe_X
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    Apr 14th 2022, 1:04 PM

    @PositiveMe: nope

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    Mute Joe_X
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    Apr 14th 2022, 1:15 PM

    @Merlin Lancelot: actually, it isn’t. Inflation last year was 5.5%, (that is, if I understood the report I read correctly, so I do stand to be corrected if I’m wrong) House prices increased by nearly 3 times that

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    Mute Lee King Buckett
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    Apr 14th 2022, 1:26 PM

    @Joe_X: It doesn’t work like that. Inflation being 5.5% doesn’t mean that everything has gone up by that amount – fuel went up by much more, clothing fell etc etc.

    Leaving that aside, house prices aren’t included in CPI figures so there is no relation between the two.

    Here we have more people looking for houses than there are house to sell to them so they outbid each other pushing up the prices. It’s a supply squeeze, not a bubble.

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    Mute southside
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    Apr 14th 2022, 1:28 PM

    @PositiveMe: I think they learned to restrict supply so that the prices wouldn’t fall like they did the last time.

    35
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    Mute Joe_X
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    Apr 14th 2022, 1:35 PM

    @Lee King Buckett: I undersrmtand that it is an average of every thing, but 15% in housing, and claiming it is in line with inflation is a bit much.

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    Mute Lee King Buckett
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    Apr 14th 2022, 1:41 PM

    @Joe_X: who claimed it was in line with inflation?

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    Mute PositiveMe
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    Apr 14th 2022, 1:56 PM

    @Merlin Lancelot: it’s a debt bubble if people are getting mortgages they cannot afford off the back of jobs that may be precarious in today’s world. The real effects of covid and now the war have to be realised yet.

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    Mute Lee King Buckett
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    Apr 14th 2022, 2:00 PM

    @PositiveMe: Less than 3.5 times annual income, minimum of 10% equity upfront and household debt burden continues to fall.

    Doesn’t sound like a debt bubble to me. Of course inflation, interest rates and economic contraction are risks but the present situation is miles away from 2008

    16
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    Mute Joe_X
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    Apr 14th 2022, 2:11 PM

    @Lee King Buckett: Merlin, further up, if I understood his comment correctly

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    Mute Lee King Buckett
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    Apr 14th 2022, 2:26 PM

    @Joe_X: I don’t think so and, believe me, I don’t usually agree with anything that guy has to say.

    He said its supply and demand – too many people looking to buy in an economy that doesn’t have the capacity to meet demand.

    I don’t think his point had anything to do with inflation.

    5
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    Mute Jonathan Conway
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    Apr 14th 2022, 2:56 PM

    @Lee King Buckett: Philip lane reckons inflation is temporary at today’s ECB meeting, says no imediate need to up Interest rates.
    Seriously these lads are letting inflation become entrenched and it will only make it even harder to get under control.

    8
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    Mute Lee King Buckett
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    Apr 14th 2022, 3:26 PM

    @Jonathan Conway: This is the ongoing debate. On one hand, a high degree of cost increase is a result of increasing energy prices, if they return to normal levels then a good deal of inflation will subside.

    However, if wages increase and some of the CPI increases become baked into the system then we have a different scenario completely.

    US core inflation softened this week which many took as a sign that inflation there has peaked. However, Europe is more directly affected by the Ukraine war with many of those increases feeding into core measures. ECB made no move to increase rates today in their minutes so it seems they are not going to take major action any time soon.

    Remains to be seen who is right…

    6
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    Mute Jonathan Conway
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    Apr 14th 2022, 3:44 PM

    @Lee King Buckett: Seemingly this new Comander for Russia or the butcher as he is known as, his trademark is besieging cities and areas for years like he did in Aleppo in Syria for years. If this is Russia’s new plan B to besiege eastern Ukraine like they did in Syria, then energy shortages and food shortages are inevitable.
    I would suspect inflation to level off for the summer months but it will start to increase come September October again as the real food price inflation of this years crop will get passed on as well as the incoming winter and fuel demand increasing.
    The supply chain issues are only getting worse too which may also be a perfect storm in the making

    5
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    Mute fintan doyle
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    Apr 14th 2022, 5:16 PM

    @Merlin Lancelot: I’m pretty sure that’s what all vested interests said last time

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    Mute Geoff Bateman
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    Apr 14th 2022, 12:49 PM

    Grand if your selling up and moving to another country where you could buy a decent property and still have money left over…. no good if your selling and looking to buy another place in or near your existing location, cos your gonna have to pay a lot more for it.

    90
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    Mute mark daly
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    Apr 14th 2022, 3:09 PM

    Waiting on the bubble to burst. There’s a limit on what people can afford.

    54
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    Mute Bitcoin Buddy
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    Apr 14th 2022, 12:40 PM

    Thank God the property market has finally slowed down to match real inflation

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    Mute WacoKid
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    Apr 14th 2022, 6:58 PM

    Not all properties crashed in 2008, it was more apartments made of cardboard and the large mansions. Family homes in communities with good infrastructure tend to be more insulated from any price corrections. Not a debt bubble this time. Multi nationals paying good salaries and houses are now typically priced on 2 income households.

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