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FINE GAEL TD Brian Hayes’s election to the European Parliament earlier this week means that two political positions have opened up.
The now vacant office of Minister of State for the OPW and junior finance minister is likely to be reassigned in the Cabinet reshuffle next month.
But of more interest to politicos will be the by-election for his Dáil seat in Dublin South-West which will be hotly-contested by the political parties later this year.
Hayes’s election on Monday meant he immediately vacated his Dáil seat and his departure for Brussels automatically triggers a by-election for his seat in the Dáil within six months.
Fine Gael will not be overly confident of retaining the seat given the party’s performance in the local and European elections and the strong working class vote in the area.
The party will either run Senator Cáit Keane, who came fifth in the four-seat constituency in the 2011 general election, or else opt to blood a younger candidate and give them electoral experience with the likes of Emer Higgins, Colm Brophy, Anne-Marie Dermody and, even, Kenneth Egan in the mix.
Keane, a former Progressive Democrats councillor, has remained active and prominent in the area in recent years, particularly around the Terenure and Templeogue areas which are her strongholds.
The party may opt for her given the experiment of running the well-known, but politically inexperienced, Eamonn Coghlan in Dublin West didn’t go to plan as he finished fifth and put in a dreadful performance in an important TV debate.
Labour, which holds two of the four Dáil seats (Pat Rabbitte and Eamonn Maloney), could run councillor Mick Duff, who has a strong support base in Tallaght. Or it could opt for Pamela Kearns.
The party is unlikely to win the seat which means it could opt to field a younger candidate to give them new experience. In that case, one strong contender would be the newly-elected Martina Genockey who shot to national prominence during the election campaign.
Former Fianna Fáil TD Charlie O’Connor, who won a seat on South Dublin County Council last week, is likely to look at regaining the Dáil seat he lost in 2011 when he finished sixth, ahead of former minister Conor Lenihan who has since left politics. But the former government party may seek to bring in a fresh face in the form of councillor John Lahart.
Sinn Féin holds one Dáil seat in the area through its foreign affairs spokesperson Seán Crowe and will be expected to poll strongly, particularly in light of its success in some wards in the constituency where it got enough of a vote to take three or four seats but only had two candidates. Its likely candidate is councillor Cathal King but Eoin Ó Broin might also come into contention.
One possible independent candidate is former South Dublin mayor Dermot Looney who resigned from Labour over its policies in government. He was easily re-elected to the council on a non-party ticket last weekend and would poll strongly.
The Socialist Party could run either Mick Murphy, who has competed in every election in the constituency since 1997, or offer Paul Murphy, its outgoing MEP, a chance to restart his political career by running for the Dáil.
Note: A version of this article was originally published on 29 January 2014 and has been republished now that Hayes has been elected to the European Parliament.
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Hayes standing at the window smelling the gravy ah! Bisto.
Are all your windows front doors?
Ogochukwu was having a good ole chuckle and along comes Dave and ruins it ..lol Dave ,youse are like too much baking powder in a cake ..lol
I would like to announce bosco is gonna run, he said “if that Muppet can make it into the dail so can i”
In all fairness, I reckon enda has ruined politics for other red-haired wooden puppets.
They can forget it. Hayes wont be going anywhere. If to Europe, it will be on holidays.
Every time I see that head, my right hand instinctively becomes a fist!
It’s true. Anyone mad enough to give Hayes a vote should familiarise themselves with his list of substitutes.
Any political party that is serious will be starting to think about this as a follow on from the Local Elections.
You’d have to expect the const. to be hit hard in the locals and the person who is favourite to run to be given a higher profile.
Hayes is going to be elected very comfortably. He will top the poll.
I don’t like his politics or him but why pretend otherwise.
You can start for voting for someone else.
He has nothing to loose.
TDs, Senators and ministerial pension. Nice way to retire at 44.
I not going to vote for him but enough will.
All he has to get is one in four and he is home and dry.
Brian “Stasi” Hayes who told Matt Cooper on The Last Word that listeners should inform on neighbours who hadn’t paid the household charge. Use your vote to punish this man and his party for the Property/Bondholder Tax and water metering
Suggest Anger Management – Egg Head.
4 votes here he wont be getting !
Honestly can say I’ve never seen a more punchable head as his
aye he has a face like a garden, needs a good digging
He’s the most hated piece of s/-t in Irish Politics.
His voters don’t seem to think so.
Well I’d just hope come the by election that no one votes for FG, FF or Labour. Hopefully there will be some other candidates who might improve the choice.
What a smug shower they are.
poor old brian everybody dislikes him lol .
Don’t finish the race before it is ran he lost his Dail seat two terms back.
Why are Socialists doing so poorly in Ireland? Police corrupt, mass emigration and politician’s mendacity ought to be a fertile ground for the far left.
Worth remembering that this by-election will be fought on the old boundaries. So areas like Knocklyon and Rathfarnham will only join South West come the 2016 General Election.
This reduces the likelihood of the likes of John LaHart from being selected as candidates, unless parties with no chance of winning (Fianna Fáil being one of those parties) go for a long term strategy.
The loss of Dermot Looney puts a real dent in the Labour vote, and I’d be surprised if Sinn Féin had the votes to win a by-election. They’re a very popular party here, but can they pull in enough transfers?
Only time will tell.
Don’t matter he won’t get elected
I think Cathal King of SF would be popular enough to get a lot of transfers, he is quiet liked by all sides in the DCC.
Charlie Tallaght would be FF’s only chance of getting a good vote here. Their org.outside of his supporters is absolutely woeful, pound for pound the most ignorant people you will meet. Would else is there to run that is electable beside the Charlie Pensioner.
This idea that Hayes will not be elected, when all the Tallies from his own const. shows he is great at getting transfers and his party are the largest in Dublin.
He is going to top the poll, simple as that.
Quiet liked? Hardly a ringing endorsement, ssshhhh….
The man is a creep.A career politician .Pity I wont get a chance to say it to his face when election time comes.
This will most likely be a fight between FG and Lab to take the seat.
Sinn Fein even if they think they can win won’t be able to hold 2 seats come the next GE under the new boundaries so they’d be minded to not put a whole lot of effort into this one.
As for Mr. Tallaght. I think he needs to recognise his time in politics is up.
A fight between FG and Lab, yeah Labour really polled strongly at the last bye election.4% it was that high wasn’t it?
Ah you’re back clueless about politics again I see. Doesn’t really surprise me you don’t do numbers so much as rhetoric. Just because you want it to be one way doesn’t mean that’s how it will be.
Careful Adam. Any suggestion that Fine Gael or Labour, let alone BOTH will not just get some votes, but actually WIN an election is an automatic down-thumb on this site.
Your analysis is spot on.
Adam clueless? So how did the Meath bye election go for Labour, am I wrong with the 4% figure.
Yes clueless. You do realise that people vote constituency by constituency yes? For example if you look at last weeks constituency poll in Dublin South-East (the soon to be Dublin Bay South) which party polls highest? Yes Labour.
I suppose that’s spin though right? Yeah try again next time.
David,
I hadn’t considered that FF might not run Charlie but as you said they might run the younger candidate as it would give him some level of profile. In any event if Looney runs Lab vote is cut in half and Fine Gael walk in on transfers.
I’ll come back with you after polling day if Mr Hayes goes to Europe.
You do know polls can be wrong, remember the Seanad poll.Also two polls last week.Indo had Lab up and SBP had Lab down guess you preferred the Indo one.Funny though most political hacks respect the Red C polls over others.
Btw polling day is the only poll that counts.
Try not to get to upset bad for your blood pressure.
Mr Tallaght will be in the reckoning for a seat here.
His time in politics is up but he can still get out a personal and FF gombeen vote.
Labour aren’t in the races here at all. Maybe if it was Dublin South East but not here, will do well to come 4th. I wouldn’t be surprised if Pat Rabbitte lost his seat here next time.
It is between FG, SF and FF.
Doubt if SF would hold a 2nd seat here but it would be some boost to them going to a general election. Cathal King is popular and would get a lot of transfers.
Brian Hayes will be elected on the 1st count. Anyone I know in FG, SF,Lab. Socialists all agree with that.
Facts are just facts.
Labour are broken in Tallaght, Looney left because he did not want to go down with them. One of their best and brightest leaves because he is not sure of Lab. even getting a Council seat never mind a TD here.
Yeah I think Labour will really struggle in DSW. Out knocking on doors the last number of weeks and the sentiment being directed towards them is worse than the anger expressed against FF in 2011, and I have to say thier councillours are actually doing a fine job.
I don’t think Charlie will be elected, as much as he might try to down play it he was part of a government that destroyed this country, he is as much to blame for the current cuts as any other government TD. Also he has yet to address the issue of inappropriate payments outlined in the Mahon tribunal. I would be surprised if FF expose themselves by selecting him.
Sinn Fein would relish the by-election. I would love to see Cathal King go as I think he would make a great candidate. He served as Mayor and Deputy Mayor of SDCC in the last five years and has built a strong support base in Tallaght.
Cathal King got 31% ElectionsIreland.org: 2014 Local – Tallaght South http://www.electionsireland.org/result.cfm?election=2014L&cons=212
SF got 51% of vote in Tallaght South with 2 candidates
Marie Devine got 24% ElectionsIreland.org: 2014 Local – Tallaght Central http://www.electionsireland.org/result.cfm?election=2014L&cons=211
SF got 32% of vote in Tallaght Central with 2 candidates
Conor Lenihan will return from Russia watch this space
He may stay over in Russia, I think that family’s time in politics is finished, including the young lad in trinity, stay away,
His family name and association are toxic for a lot of people.
i can’t see people voting for him given his own past record and his brother’s slitting of Ireland’s throat.
wont be surprised if hayes keeps it in the family.sure wifey might get the nod
Been spending most their lives , living in the gangsta’s paradise
Power and the money , money and the power
I brought the coke , ‘cos he said he was broke
Good old Brian ,knew how to make a line
Been spending most their lives , living in the gangsta’s paradise
Jobs for the boys sickening
Ogochukwu will try again ..lol
Who voted the last time for the lovely person i.e Brian Hayes ..lol
Were things really that bad in 2011 ..lol
Hope that gets through the moderator ..lol
Lol you were born a lol comedian lol
And I needed reminding , is that it ..lol
Politics ……. Don’t you just love it.
Keeps us talking, keeps us moaning,
keeps us guessing!
Who needs the ‘soaps’ – when you have politics?!
Dermot looney will rejoin the Labour Party under the excuse that new leader will change things in fact he never really left just a self serving means of keeping a council seat. I would think Paul murphy will run and could do well
For God sake vote for him to go to Europe because we certainly don’t want him in Tallaght. We will though need to work out a plan to stop him from coming back.
Bring back the Minister for Tallaght, Charlie O’Connor. He’ll sort out the crime situation
Surely FF have more ambition than that?
Charlie O’Connor is the best that FF have there.
-He is certainly a relic of the past but the Councillors they have there were still only getting 7-8% in 2009 and they were a better organized, funded and supporter party then.
FG/SF fight out for 1st place, FF back a bit but too far to make it and Lab. still getting out of the bath, might even be beaten by an independent.
Councillor Mick Duff?
What a legendary name.
Not Paul Murphy please. He’s a failed politician. Brid Smith should go for it unimpeded. Socialist party messed her up last time. Typical revisionists.
Tallaght for Charlie!!!
We just had an expensive election, money is scarce ! How much is these by elections ( Mings seat also) going to cost. Just leave the seats empty. It’s the Tax payer paying for the election and pensions.
“Are these bye-elections”
have your say