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Joan Burton and Enda Kenny were the toast of Dublin Castle on Saturday. PA WIRE
Analysis
Should the government call a cheeky election right now?
Analysis: The coalition could capitalise on the feel-good factor following the passage of the same-sex marriage referendum.
9.15pm, 25 May 2015
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146
ENDA KENNY AND JOAN Burton embraced on the makeshift stage as thousands cheered and showed their appreciation for the Taoiseach and Tánaiste.
It was another extraordinary moment on a day of extraordinary moments last Saturday in the Dublin Castle courtyard.
For cynical and jaded political correspondents the sight of TDs from all sides of the political divide hanging around the VIP area, chatting, laughing and generally having a great time together was an odd experience.
Whenever they went on the main stage where the TV cameras were set up there were huge roars of approval. Gerry Adams took possibly the most extraordinary selfie in Irish political history with Panti and Justice Minister Frances Fitzgerald.
For members of the government it was as if they had just won an election on a tide of goodwill.
In reality, they are approaching the end of a term in office that has been a success in terms of restarting economy but hugely controversial when you consider the cuts, the taxes, and the scandals. It has been, many would admit, a bruising experience.
It isn’t that long ago that Joan Burton was being held against her will by angry water protesters in Jobstown or that Enda Kenny was being heckled everywhere he went over the same issue. The same was true for many ordinary backbenchers.
We were dealing with an entirely different issue over the weekend but there is no doubt there was an enormous amount of goodwill towards Fine Gael and Labour right now.
Both parties put in a great effort to get the referendum passed and the appreciation wasn’t just coming from a minority of people directly affected by same-sex marriage being legalised.
It was coming from people of all ages, of all different political outlooks. Some of them were first-time voters, who’ve been energised by this campaign. The challenge for all politicians now is to get the motivate those same people to participate and vote in future referendums, and of course, the next general election.
For sometime, the conventional wisdom has been that this will not take place until early next year (we’re putting our money on February) but there has been some talk of the Taoiseach going to the country election after the Budget in October.
But how about a snap election right now?
The passage of this referendum and praise for the government could be capitalised upon, especially if an opinion poll due out this weekend shows a rise in support for Fine Gael and Labour.
The likes of Leo Varadkar and John Lyons were, quite rightly, treated like rockstars at Dublin Castle over the weekend.
Yes, those in the upper court yard are not representative of the entire country but there is definitely a feel-good factor all over Ireland right now.
It’s the sort of feeeling we haven’t had since those exhilarating few weeks in May 2011 when both the Queen and Barack Obama paid a visit to these shores and support for Fine Gael and Labour was actually higher than what they got in the election three months previous.
The government has a good story to tell. Not just on same-sex marriage, but on the economy and the promise of more tax cuts in future Budgets. A snap election focusses voters’ minds on what they want.
With Fianna Fáil in yet more disarray today and Sinn Féin performing strongly, but not strong enough to be in a position to lead a government (which is their only aim), the coalition can hammer home that same message it has been subtly putting out there in recent months: There is no alternative.
Several coalition figures who we put this idea to over the weekend smiled politely but dismissively. When we raised the idea with one senior cabinet minister this morning, they smiled and laughed before departing the conversation.
While it’s unlikely, it certainly merits consideration.
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I don’t know why the journal once a month writes an article about early elections. Why would anyone cut themselves short from running the country? The term is five years, they will do five years. Can anyone name a single government that ever finished up early without collapsing?
Ha ha ha ‘ cheeky’ election..my behind. Like its a fun thing to do. Wink wink…
Seriously…leave them in there and let the opposition do their jobs.
The water thing is not going away because we decided to vote Yes. The usc thingamajobee yolk is not going away because we voted yes.
Time to regroup ….this government give us back what they said they would give us back…and not charge secret charges through the back door.
Transparency…I think thats the word they used.
Opaque..I think
It gives the shinners something to look forward to and I think the casual followers of journal.ie enjoy seeing their vulgar language and threatening posts.
If the RWC lifts the mood of the nation we’ll have a Nov election.
Economy doing well, modest reductions in taxes promised, rising opinion poll figures, falling unemployment, Easter 1916 celebrations to come… you can be sure they’ll hold on as long as possible.
Just look up Snap Election in wikipedia and you will see countless examples from various parliamentary democracies.
The whole reason that they might is that the economic stats seem to be going up (not translating to majority of people though IMO), there is a feel good factor around this referendum, and they are up in the polls. So they might feel they have a better chance of winning another 5 years of government now, whereas another year of uncertainty, another budget, possibly more cuts, or an unforeseen economic downturn.
As well it can be a tactic to try and catch the opposition of balance.
More corruption and lies is the only real difference failgeal/liebour have made. OH and helping there rich buddies get even richer .I wonder how the independent investigation is going into siteserve ?
Actually I think the high voter turnout and feel good factor would benifit SF and the Independents.. People Now realise that they can make a difference and it feels good.. If there was a vote in the morning FG and Labour would be desimated…
Funny that FF,FG Lab got their worst total votes in over 70 years down there isn`t it, In The Name Of ?
While Sinn Féin have gone from strength to strength Both Labour and FG got mangled. – Riddle me that one so.
That’s true Jason, but there’s no denying they’ve made significant gains down there and will more than likely take a seat the next time. Mind you, you’ll probably deny that. “Dem gains tho”
People vote economically. The economy is improving. The idea of electoral ruin for FG at this juncture is nonsense. Don’t just take my word for it, go down and see what the bookies are offering on this FG wipeout.
Fine Gael will survive alright from an election, bit bruised but that is all. Labour on the other hand will get slaughtered, and if you have talked to people in any labour heartlands, particularily around Dublin, this is painfully obvious.
labour deserve all they get, but fg are scared as the appointment of a yfg’er to manage endas facebook account in mayo
the phoenix(a real journalist publication) pointed out enda is running scared and may even use the ceann chearla’s chair as a crutch to get elected by banishing his constituency fg running mate to it
but fg and enda are not that cynical are they??
I hope you are right. My worries though are people that voted FG in 2011 wanted austerity and neo-liberal answers to the crisis. They generally got what they voted for with a few exceptions in policiies.
Labour on the other hand, tore up their principles, and spat in the face of those that elected them, and then when faced with criticism view those same voted with utter contempt
I hope the progressive forces in the country can organise to a level to counterweigh those conservative voices.
People want an end to corruption once and for all. This is even more important than the economy because only good will follow if its stamped out. People would have renewed confidence and trust in government, business would thrive, investment would soar. The gombeen culture is even more active than it has ever been, one only has to look at the commission appointed to investigate Siteserv. This shower have brazenly duped and conned the Irish electorate and sold their souls for a few shekels and a cushy EU number. Get anyone but FG\LAB\FF in and insist that our constitution is revisited to protect the electorate from corruption, lies and sleaze and that any wrong doings uncovered is dealt with firmly by the law. Lots if traitors need to be locked up and thought very salutory lessons. The Irish people deserve justice after all the pain and unnecessary hardship they have been put through.
What about Enda and his contract to the Irish people and his seizmic shift.
Sorry I must have being dreaming these last 4 years of austerity for the little people of Ireland while Enda and Joans buddies filled their boots.
The highest % Yes votes were in working class areas, where SF have their strongest support. SF are not getting the credit they deserve for getting the referendum passed. On Saturday nights RTE news, they had interviews with FG,Labour and FF, SF ignored.
The next election will be about Irishwater, and FG-Labour are going to get a serious kicking.
A huge amount of middle class people voted yes in the referendum and they won’t vote SF in a million years. And they are the ones who turn out for GEs.
I live in a so called middle class area outside Dundalk. Highest in yes vote in Louth, and SF always top the polls in the area too. There’s a connection between SF and equality
Actually Jammin I’ve been reading the journal for about a year now and today is the first day I’ve joined the comments section. I don’t use Twitter so I did set up a new acc just for this purpose, so that like you I could give my opinion. From the many many post I have read from you I have seen that troll is by far and away your favourite word so that’s what I expect from you.
I think you’d be surprised. You have to take into account how they’ve been treated by successive governments. They bled that well dry and most middle class people are at their wits end with it
No I said I’ve been reading the journal for a year, set up Twitter acc yesterday. I didn’t know I had followers, they’ll be very disappointed. Doesn’t everyone on this have to start somewhere? Or do you own the journal comments section?
They probably would ease taxes on the middle classes. It would be the people who can most afford it that would likely to be taxed higher. Good point, well made
Todd I can only go on what I see around me and I can honestly say I have one relation who supports SF and that’s it. None of my friends or any of the rest of my family, and I’ve a big family.
WJ gets harassed on here by a half dozen accounts, they use his name and avatar and post all sorts of lies and nonsense the bullies, they never have a position on anything only to contradict WJ.
Glad the right result came in but in fairness it doesn’t have any thing to do with either Enda or Joan. Just a sign the Irish electorate are getting more mature. Bad news for Enda & Joan.
Very bad news for Enda and Joan if the young people politically motivated during the referendum decide they not only like voting but like voting to shake up the status quo.SF for better or worse could start sneaking seats left right and center.
What do we want? A vote. When do we want it? Yesterday!!!! I’m ready now my mind won’t be changed in 2016!!! Gimme me ballot paper now please!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Who ever gets in better abolish the water changes and reverse the USC that’s all I’ve to say.
Just because they jumped on the gay marriage bandwagon doesn’t mean there going to get away with what they have done to the Irish people. There’s a lot more angry straight people than gay people right now. It’s just like this sneaky government to try and use the gay referendum to hijack a vote. Let the gay people enjoy there victory. You lot will keep. Don’t worry irish people don’t forget
@baz last time I checked this site was was a media and news outlet where you could share opinions and views on topics.. Not a place for grammar police to point out a certain somebody forgot a full stop
David Adams, that’s exactly what they did.
We were fooled by those who preceded them, we are not so easily fooled any more.
One thing I have learned from austerity, is the amazing ability to spot a liar or bullsh**ter, from a mile off.
@ Martina: They’ll try to buy the election bertie style with the october budget. Failing a scandal that brings their house of cards down, there won’t be an election before the giveaway budget.
Give away budget that’s a joke. Look at what they took to feed the bankers and bond holders from us. Nobody has gone to jail yet, where is biffo and bertie? Muppets! Where is the rest of FF and what did FG know?
Bertie style giveaway budget? Doubtful. It’ll be pretty modest. Sure didn’t everyone say the Spring Statement was dull?! No sign of big giveaways on the horizon, despite what the looney left want.
With a huge number of young voters now in play to ensure a yes vote, it’s bad news for FG/LAB. These same voters have been cast aside by this government and will now ensure the end is near for them. FG/LAB will not be forgotten for treachery in siding with German masters. Tax after tax and cut after cut.. Now the lies continue. Electorate will not be fooled again. Times up…
Oh please do. The by-election last week in a traditionally conservative constituency said it all. FFs worst performance there EVER, FG support almost halved, also at a historic low, and labour posting a historic low also.
BAZ,The economy has nothing to do with them as they have no say over the euro as we don’t and remember the last 7 to 8 budgets were done by the German government for us…
The talking monkey and the other cult members are on full alert. SF/IRA will never get popular support in an election while the smell of cordite and the hiding of paedophiles continues.
They will sit tight ’til next Spring. The economy is turning at the right time and a feel good budget in Autumn will help swing a few more voters their way.
Before anyone gives out then suggest a credible alternative when doing so.
Ye that’ll be it exactly. A nice soft budget to let on they care about Ireland’s most vulnerable then back to the old cronyism if elected again. Won’t have labour to prop them up this time anyway
You know the alternative unless you vote for it. It’s time the other had a chance to right the wrong of this and the previous government. I wouldn’t reward this lying government with a vote just because you think there’s no alternative. Change can only happen if we vote for it, and it’s time to break ranks with the normal corrupt parties that continuously get in and let’s us down.
Having had an interest in Irish politics for the past 30 years I cannot remember a more ridiculed and despised,in fairly equal measures,as Merkel,sorry mr.kenny.
Haughy for all his misgivings had a pair of balls,wouldn’t rate cowen as he was always going to be a temporary leader.Still think kenny is the most despised leader we’ve ever had.And totally detached as our Taoiseach.
The referendum result had nothing to do with kenny or burton, they just hopped on the bandwagon to try to take some credit to win some voters for the election. Everyone knows that! Kenny and fg went out canvassing last week in central dublin and in the majority, people were avoiding them like the plague, they had to resort to stopping cars to get some attention. In contrast, gerry adams went out a few days before, people gathered around him and wanted to take selfies with him.
Im going to give sinn fein a chance , the only party that gives a sh#t about ireland,ff fg lab are only interested in keeping our European masters happy at the expense of the irish people for that day when ireland and being irish is a distant memory in a united Europe .
With 7% in Carlow/Kilkenny the Labour Party could not even hold a seat in a 5 seater with a sitting TD.If the election were held now Labour would return no more that 5/6 TDs.
If FG get in John then the Irish people can look forward to attachment orders on their pay packets to pay their €800+ IW bills when it becomes privatised and uncapped.
These contemptible puppets are nothing less than localised debt collectors for foreign dept collectors aka The Troika. I recently saw the illegal theft from my pension fund that they use to fund their slave labour scam, ring my doorbell.
They should, it really shows that Fine Gael would go through anyone to get what they want, leaving Labour in a wrecked and ravaged state. The Red C polls are not telling in any sense, I saw a poll on the Journal from a couple of months ago that had Sinn Fein at 29%, and Fine Gael at a lowly 21%. If people believe that the marriage equality referendum will hold them in good stead then they obviously don’t acknowledge the Siteserve scandal, parties are saving that for election time and whether you be an independent or a party, neither Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil can comment on it or use it because they are both masters of corruption!
By the bye, Sinn Fein Cumanbs voted against a coalition with Fibe Gael or Fianba Fáil, so the media may stop spreading this myth that we’ll get involved in a coalition with either
I’d rather them not… I’d like to vote and can’t spare the time to arrange to be back in Europe.
Plus I’m really quite tired of democracy for a while given voting in the UK election, and following though couldn’t make it there to vote in the referendum.
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