IN RECENT WEEKS, there has been a surge in speculation that the government will call an election before the year is out.
Opposition parties are convinced there will be an election later this year but the official government position is that it will take place in the spring of 2016.
The latest that the current Dáil can be dissolved is 9 March 2016, which means an election must be held around the first week of April 2016.
But might the country be having its say a bit sooner?
1. The decks are being cleared
This is perhaps the biggest reason why many politicos are now suggesting that the country will be voting before the year is out. The recent passage of the same-sex marriage referendum and the swift conclusion of the public sector pay talks have led some to believe that the decks are being cleared for an early election.
The government is squaring off many of its remaining priorities with the collective bargaining legislation that Labour has championed due before the Dáil next week. The Seanad is understood to have been told to expect some five-day sittings in June in a sign that a lot of legislation will be coming through before the summer recess.
2. The polls are good
Bar one Red C in April, the polls have been largely going in the right direction for the government since the turn of the year. Fine Gael is now on the brink of the psychologically important 30 per cent mark. Labour still languishes in the single figures in most polls, but the junior coalition party believes an election will focus voters’ minds. Which leads us to…
3. TINA
The government has been hammering an argument that ‘there is no alternative’ (TINA) to its economic plan. With Fianna Fáil struggling to define its identity and Sinn Féin proposing a radical departure from the current economic policies, the coalition believes it is the only credible option that the people can elect. That message was reinforced in the much-maligned Spring Statement that set out a long-term economic plan.
4. The Budget chat is already under way
Tax cuts in Budget 2016 have been mooted for some months, but the Taoiseach and Tánaiste have been more specific in recent weeks, with a commitment to cut USC. Such specifics so early on have led some to believe that the Budget will, in fact, take place earlier than mid-October with an election called shortly after.
5. Go now, before something goes wrong
The disaster that was 2014 put paid to any suggestion of an election this summer, but the coalition could have regained enough ground by now to be in a strong position to go to the country. If the two parties left it longer it leaves open the possibility that some controversy or scandal could crop up before the end of the year to damage them beyond repair. So, the logic goes, it would be better to get an election out of the way now, while the going is reasonably good.
1. Everything everyone has said
The language repeatedly used by the Taoiseach, Tánaiste and ministers has centred on the election taking place in the first few months of next year and though there has been the odd divergence from that view they’ve been pretty consistent.
2. Wait until people feel it in their pocket
There is not necessarily a political dividend to be got from announcing tax cuts that don’t come into effect for some months. Some in government argue that it would be better to wait until early next year when people actually feel the benefit of a tax cut in their first pay packet of 2016.
3. Labour wants to wait
Joan Burton said this week that there was “a lot of merit” in the government going its full term. For Labour, there has been little in the way of progress in the polls since she took over as leader nearly a year ago and the party might want to wait until the last possible moment to see if they can get into double figures on a consistent basis.
4. The logistics point to 2016
As we reported in April, the political parties are all planning their ard fheiseanna for the first few weeks of the new year. Fine Gael’s will take place on 22 and 23 January and the belief amongst some in the party is that Enda Kenny will call an election in the week after that. That would mean a trip to the polling booth sometime in late February.
5. A canvassing nightmare
The shorter evenings and colder weather would not make for a happy canvass later this year. All parties are agreed on this which is why the government may be better off waiting until the spring of next year when the evenings are brighter and the temperatures a bit warmer.
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