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OUTSIDE AND AWAY from the stifling heat of the hall where the MacGill Summer School took place in Glenties last summer, the former Fine Gael strategist Frank Flannery assessed where it all went wrong for his party.
He’d just delivered a devastating critique of Fine Gael’s disastrous local election performance – “one of the worst I ever saw” – and was now identifying why exactly it was so bad. The answer was simple: the government failed to set the agenda.
“The election was fought on the issues that were driven by the opposition. Whoever can set the agenda for an election has the best chance of winning it and I think on this occasion, no really strong or coherent attempt was made to set that agenda,” he said.
Flannery no longer works for Fine Gael but it’s a fair bet that the party still remembers the advice of a man who masterminded their historic 2011 general election success.
Perhaps that’s why in recent days the government, and particularly Fine Gael, has shown a clear determination to set the agenda with the election still, we are told, well over a year away. After water charges, medical cards and several other controversies, the coalition wants to get on-message and sell the economic recovery to the Irish electorate.
On Friday there was a very obvious coordinated attack from Fine Gael and Labour ministers on Sinn Féin and its policies.
On Sunday, Michael Noonan accused Gerry Adams of being dishonest about his party’s tax policies, saying in a rare, but not unprecedented, statement through the Fine Gael press office that Sinn Féin “insist on increasing taxes so that they can spend more. They are a tax and spend Party whose economic policies would severely damage the economy”.
Fine Gael attacks on Sinn Féin are not unusual but the concentration of them in recent days is a new development and is indicative of a party that is now firmly in election mode.
Not that it’s the only one thinking about an election. Fianna Fáil and Sinn Fein have both made clear they expect voters will go the polls next year and talk of Election 2015 dominates Leinster House. Labour is probably hoping the coalition will go all the way to spring 2016 as it looks to recover as much lost ground as possible in the polls.
With Fine Gael and Sinn Féin both running at 22 per cent, according to the most recent Red C poll for the Sunday Business Post, the two parties are now looking to firmly frame an ‘us or them’ narrative. Both have more or less ruled out coalition with each other and both are at opposite ends of the political spectrum.
It’s on these grounds that Fine Gael is looking to set the agenda and hammer home the message to voters that they face a choice: either a Fine Gael-led government that has restored economic growth and created thousands of jobs or a Sinn Féin-led government that’s all about tax and spend.
Sinn Fein’s message is that the recovery has helped the few and battered the poorest, that a Sinn Féin-led government would be ensuring a fairer and more equitable recovery where high earners pay a lot of tax and those at the lower end of the spectrum see some of the welfare cuts in recent years restored.
What all of this does is make Fianna Fáil seem irrelevant. Fine Gael has spent the past three years dismissing Micheál Martin’s party as ‘the crowd that got us into this mess’. The polls show that FF are certainly not proving as attractive to people whose vote is up for grabs as Sinn Fein or independent candidates.
There is a certain level of arrogance in this approach from Fine Gael as Fianna Fáil spokespeople have identified in recent days. We can expect this to form part of the FF message in the lead-up to the next election: that this government, and particularly Enda Kenny, are “arrogant and deluded”.
Billy Kelleher said this morning that Enda Kenny is a “like a broken down salesman” going around the country selling tax cuts in the future budgets. Fianna Fáil believes that Kenny’s unpopularity is something it can capitalise on.
Labour will hope to be in the conversation, but knows that it faces into a difficult election where many of those elected in 2011 in danger of losing their seats. Depending on how many TDs it returns, it could yet be a key player in any coalition negotiations.
While it has been wedded to Fine Gael for the past three years you can’t rule out a fundamentally left-wing party doing a deal with another party of the left, Sinn Féin.
That’s all without mentioning the significant number of independents likely to be returned as well as the growing popularity of the Socialist Party/Anti-Austerity Alliance. Then there is Shane Ross and Lucinda Creighton perhaps each forming new parties in the run-up to the next election.
All these questions are sure to be answered in the coming months. But the most important question of all is when that election will be, and all the signs are that by this time next year the people will have had their say.
She can put whoever she wants onto her “front bench” and it still doesn’t make any difference.
@Blue Moon: So you don’t believe in democracy and the notion of an opposition?
The current government have shown themselves up after only two days in the new Dail and are planking it, new “old” scandal regarding Michael Lowry and DoB, new High Court order to produce documents relating to the Moriarty tribunal served on him. Michael Martin who was highly critical of DoB in 2011 is now doing business by allowing that crook sit on government benches.
@Mr Inbetween: 100% correct
@Mr Inbetween: everyone believes in opposition, it’s just a pity they’re so useless and couldn’t organise the proverbial in a brewery…..
@Mr Inbetween: Slab Murphy, Dessie Ellis and I can go on
@Harry Paisley: SF didtn murder anyone , your statement could be precived as slanderous
@James Brennan: oh yes they did
@Paul O’Mahoney: So your saying SF murdered people? Proof please!!!
@Blue Moon: Mary Lou has put her party in retrograde mode in regards to Irish politics, political dictats went out of fashion with Hitler and Stalin!
@Harry Paisley: there is no ira,you are still living in the last century.Catch up
@Paul O’Mahoney: You’re naming IRA heads that Sinn Fein disassociated from over a quarter of a century ago when they welcomed the Good Friday Agreement. In the period since ditching the ‘ra Sinn Fein have won over a huge number of ex FF/FG voters. Indeed there used to be a time when only one of FF/FG and a small party could form a government no problem, now FF & FG don’t even have the numbers to form a coalition with just the two of them involved. I can go on….
@Paul O’Mahoney: Charlie Haughey, disgraced former leader of Fianna Fail, armed the Provisional IRA to help the downtrodden Catholic community, you do remember that Paul?
@Blue Moon: Opposition parties are just as important in a democracy as government parties.
But yet again, the gov have shown they are incapable of honesty, housing figures, 10,000 short,
Lowry gate, and now storm supports or lack of.
Embarrassing is not the word.
@James Brennan: Martin Mc Guinness said he was a member of the IRA and SF and he was part of the ” war” ….so there’s one piece of evidence.
@Paul O’Mahoney: @Paul O’Mahoney: You keep forgetting the Good Friday Agreement, all ties with IRA cut and still are, in fact the provos or whatever they call themselves now hate the new Sinn Fein for ditching them and going down the route of democracy. To prove my point I will just say that before the GFA Sinn Fein never polled well in Irish Elections, now they are the second biggest party in Ireland, they also take part in NI elections which neither FF or FG ever did.
@Mr Inbetween: Hilarious stuff, they take part in NI elections for Westminster too but take the money and do nothing else. SF leaders are regularly seen shouldering coffins of ” good Republicans ” ie bombers and the like and even during Covid……The GFA didn’t sever anything and nobody believes it did except for SF supporters.
SF will be in opposition again for 5 years according to Mary lou and shes also going to be at the helm , she has yet again conceded this before a fight has begun.
Leadership from SF is populist nonsense and like FFG just roll out the same shyte day after day, btw SF lost 160000 votes in the last election, if going backwards is going forward then ye are lost
@Mr Inbetween: how did SF disassociate itself from dessie Ellis over a quarter of a century ago when he’s still a TD for them? They’re also trying to get Conor Murphy into the seanad.
@Paul O’Mahoney: Dump your triggered bs on whatever the IRA are calling themselves these days. Sinn Fein are independent and try to make a difference to the people North & South, FFG are dinosaurs who have been steadily losing votes to SF since the year 2000. Second largest party in the South, biggest party on the island of Ireland. FFG never cared for the Catholic community up north.
@Paul O’Mahoney: he was a member of the IRA and then became a SF politician, so again no proof SF killed anyone
@Mr Inbetween: And SF lost 160000 votes in the last GE, got 2 MEPs without making a quota, and ran so many candidates in the Local elections that it confused it’s voters. Those are the facts, suck it up.
@Harry Paisley: Now the only party to KILL people was FG , Cervical check scandal.
@Mr Inbetween: the whole point is he is not sitting on Government Benches
@Mr Inbetween:all they needed was 2 to form a government wise up
Moaning Mary & Where’s Wally … comedy show
@Harry Paisley: “Unchanged”. Is the keyword. Most of the problems of the world are because of people stuck in ruts be they ideological(severe Marxism) or religious(severe Islam)
@thomas molloy: Dont forget cronyism Tommy lad.. they haven’t gone away you know !
@thomas molloy: Severe Christianity even.
I wonder if that chap on her left looks like Trotsky on purpose?
@Del Ray: them socialist always Tend to look similar, delusion has a look.
To the members of Sinn Fein political party, If the price of a United Ireland was to disband Sinn Fein as a political entity would you be willing to do it?
The Journal, any chance you would run a poll based on the above question. Curious to see what people really think.
@Séamas Mac Cárthaigh: what a stupid thing to say, its amadán’s like you that have ffg in power the oast 100 years, and making the rich richer, the poor poorer, and the working class blaming each other and immigration for the mess this country is in instead of blaming those at fault
@he didnt take the 120k because he already got it split over 3 years:
I take it you put SF above a UI.
@Séamas Mac Cárthaigh: A united Ireland or otherwise will ultimately be the people’s choice. I can’t see that the non-existence of SF would sway too many.
@he didnt take the 120k because he already got it split over 3 years: But SF didn’t recognise the Republic until 1987, it was easy for FFG and Labour to get votes as SF weren’t in the mix , they essentially were cowards in facing the electorate.
Now they are just a Trumpian type populist party, or even a Farage type party all noise no substance. People talk about corruption in Irish Governments but not about corruption within SF let’s have that debate.
@Séamas Mac Cárthaigh: That’s going to rattle a few cages…..
@he didnt take the 120k because he already got it split over 3 years: you honestly believe the poor are poorer now than 100 years ago in Ireland? Let’s see your argument for that, please.
@Paul O’Mahoney: Ohhh look over there ! Let’s not.. let’s address the government of the day. This government isn’t gonna last a wet week with Lowry propping them up. A man whose behaviour the Tribunal described as “profoundly corrupt to a degree that was nothing short of breathtaking”. A man MM called for the resignation of stating “We must rehabilitate the idea of civic virtue and the idea of the duty and nobility of public service “.. sure Micheál..Yet here we are with the altar boy sitting down a negotiate a programme for government with this man and relying on a convicted criminals support to run his excuse for a government.. thats your definition of substance..pfft…
@Brian: I might also add the only Trump level of lies I’ve seen in the Dail in all my days was Micheál claiming the banks weren’t bailed out!!!
@Brian: Direct your ire at SF , your just another loudmouth from Cork , I’ve dealt with the likes of you all my life and will say this you’re meaningless. You’re jealously is obvious and you are now trolling I’ll be in Cork soon to sign contact s if you’re man enough name the place.
@Paul O’Mahoney: Poor Paul.. can’t defend/won’t condemn corruption at goverment level so he puts on his billy big bollix boots..Pink fluffy slippers more like. What age are you.. 9 ? You haven’t the intellect to defend your position, yet again, so you get angry and abusive, yet again. If you don’t want your drivel challenged .. don’t post it.. and don’t get your little knickers in a twist when it is.
@Brian: Hilarious
@he didnt take the 120k because he already got it split over 3 years: so we would all be rich if SF were in power
Will they be wearing Balaclavas? Asking for a friend.
@Dan Murphy: the ones in actual control do
Funny how Sinn Fein is always very popular in the opinion polls.
Until people go to vote.
@Davido: because at the end of the day a lot of people are still doing well in the country and are happy to keep the status quo. They don’t care if their neighbours are struggling to pay heating , feed their children as long as they go on their summer holidays etc.
I have an excellent job, earn 6 figures and I always vote based on what I think a party can bring with it.
Used to be FG, voted FG after the crash and then swore never to vote for them again after what they did.
For the first time ever i voted SF and social democrats as the system is completely broken and needs to be changed.
I detest SF completely, hate the IRA and I still gave them a vote.
But the majority of people in my position will still give a vote to FG/FF rather than vote for change.
Turkeys don’t vote for Xmas.
These Paddystinians won’t ever learn
@Tom L: They don’t have to learn, no Exams involved, just sit in the Dáil stirring sludge and get paid for it. O’Broin, Mary’s pet builder of Castles in the Sky is back to annoy common sense with his presumed Fairytale ‘Trotskyite theories’ Also back on the Barking Front Desk (Bench ?) is ? ? ? ? And that is the Question as to what they add to the real Debate’s. Ah well that’s my bit said, good luck to All in the Dáil.
@James Keogh: Excellent post and it really personifies SF . They truly are nefarious at every level.
I thought Louise O’Reilly worked for RTE! She’s never off the airways
So she’s going to unveil them. Fitting for statues.
3 legs and made of recycled plastic
Who cares? May as well put all Dustin the Turkeys on FB. Never be in power
From the shinners to the shouters, useless crowd.
Round up the usual suspects and play musical chairs.
” nobody is in a position indefinitely” – except for that ghoul Adams, obviously. A nothing reshuffle. Such a clear and obvious admission that they have a “significant” dearth of talent.
These republicans must be getting tired. Most northerners I’ve met lately have lost interest in reunification.
Well there’s a surprise. They don’t have enough capable people on the back benches to bring through. Same tired old faces.
@Dermot Blaine: Same old, same old
Yes Mary Lou. I hope the people put there are there on Merit. Very important to get the best people for the job.
@Oliver Cleary: It’s SF ….
@Oliver Cleary: Yes but they must vow allegiance to the Army Councils rules and regulations based in Belfast.
You do not speak unless it’s vetted by Belfast
Same old same old nothing changes
A bit like the Government that was announced last Thursday on the 23/01/2025, much the same of the useless talk.
Unless SF stand up for Irish people and our interests in the 34th Dail , they will be in the same position come the 35th Dail in opposition in a smaller form.
All she talks about is change but not for Spinn Pain!
Ridiculous ‘re-shuffle’ but there’s little strength in depth in SF so there is no one to come up through the ranks.
Any Sinn Fein moment of silence for omagh bomb?
@Ciaran: No as apparently it was Mi5
Moany and her group of aggressive thugs
If at first you don’t succeed, fail fail again?
They always looked annoyed and about to shout. It must be on the entrance exam for SF.
Deja vu : old wine in old bottles, to give a twist ( pun intended!) to an old adage: old wine in new bottles!!!
Same old same old only 2 new faces need a lot more than 2
What a shower of complete clowns. Time after time they show themselves to be completely unfit for office and are just as incompetent as the current government that we have. Their policies are stale and their dual love affair with Socialism and Islamist is a huge disgraceful blight on this country. They hate free trade and free markets which have driven Ireland to the point of development that we are at today. They tried to have it both ways when it came to illegal immigration and people saw through their laughable doublespeak. Don’t let them cod you, they are not on the brink of getting into power. They only won 19% of the votes in the last election and only won 12% in the local elections in June. They’ve run out of ideas and out of viable politicians to shuffle into cabinet.
5 more years in opposition and like the old rhyme 40 sheep went out a gap and 40 more came as after that.
What is it now after how many elections 5 – 5- 5- 5 – and more to come in opposition
Trolls very busy here today
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