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OVER THE SUMMER months there was renewed speculation about Enda Kenny’s future if Fine Gael is re-elected to government next year.
Much of this was prompted by ill-advised comments his chief whip Paul Kehoe made in an interview with the Irish Examiner. Kehoe suggested that the Fine Gael leader would not just lead the party into the next election, but the one after that too.
This raised the prospect of Kenny serving as Taoiseach for a decade, as Fine Gael leader for nearly two decades, being a TD for well over 45 years – and then attempting to add to that.
Kenny has always maintained that he would serve a full second term if re-elected. Indeed he said he “would of course” in an interview with TheJournal.ie in March:
After Kehoe’s comments, Kenny said he had “no intention of staying beyond the remit of the next government to be Taoiseach”.
It was subsequently reported that government sources believed that Kenny, if re-elected, would step down in 2018 once “full employment” – or 2.1 million people at work - is achieved.
But the Taoiseach reiterated this week that he would serve a full second term. He told the Irish Independent it would be his “intention” to serve the full term of the next period in government, saying he would not seek a third term.
This appears pretty definitive and yet it does raise interesting questions about whether he could last as Taoiseach and Fine Gael leader until 2021 (assuming the election is next year, as Kenny repeatedly said it would be this week).
Much depends on the outcome of the next election and whether the coalition is re-elected with a solid parliamentary majority that ensures there isn’t another election 18 months later.
If we assume – and it’s a big assumption right now – that the government gets re-elected and goes the full five years then we face the prospect of Kenny being in power for 10 years, and nearly 20 years as leader of Fine Gael.
He will also be nearly 70 by the time of the next election, and some within Fine Gael believe it is unrealistic that he would go on for so long, citing those agitators within the party.
We’re not just talking about Kenny’s possible successors – Leo Varadkar, Simon Coveney and Frances Fitzgerald – but those who have fallen out with Kenny or will if they fail to get the plum cabinet or junior ministerial job next time out.
There will be a feeling among that group that replacing the leader would be good for them and, remember, politicians are big on self-preservation.
Quite a few Fine Gaelers we spoke to today weren’t surprised by Kenny’s remarks this week, but at the same time they don’t believe a second five-year term for the Taoiseach is likely.
One TD deemed it “unrealistic” today. Another said Kenny was giving the full second term line to avoid the ‘when will you retire and who will replace you’ questions during the upcoming general election campaign. Others differed, one saying the possibility was “realistic” if a stable government is formed.
One senior party figure believed the idea of setting a definitive date in the middle of the next term would only serve to give the leadership contenders “notions”.
If they know that nothing is happening for five years, they are far less likely to position themselves or make a move on the leader.
But the truth is that Varadkar, Coveney and, just last weekend, Fitzgerald are already positioning themselves. The bombastic Sunday Independent headline – ‘Fitzgerald: I want to lead’ – was effectively the justice minister putting her cards on the table.
Varadkar’s disclosure of his sexuality at the beginning of the year was partly about introducing his personal side to the Irish public and, to some degree, seeing whether the country was ready for a gay party leader or Taoiseach.
Meanwhile, during the same-sex marriage referendum Coveney spoke often of his personal journey on the issue, how he’d gone to being against to being for it. It introduced us to a more personal side of the sometimes aloof agriculture minister.
Make no mistake, the contenders are positioning themselves and, if you look deeper into the backbenches, many TDs are already considering life after Kenny and how that might play out in the post-election landscape.
The Taoiseach is resolute in his belief that he will go the distance, but whether those within his party will allow him is another matter.
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Interesting language used in the article. Terrorists are called rebels. The Syrian government is called the Syrian regime. It’s always good to hear what the ‘independent’ British backed Syrian Observatory for Human Rights have to say. It would be interesting to see the reaction of the ‘West’ if the Russians/Chinese started labelling the protesters in Paris as ‘freedom fighters’, started supporting them directly/indirectly in order to disrupt/displace the Macron government, met with them on the streets shaking hands and spurring them on, protested aggressive government actions on ‘peaceful protests’, etc a la Maidan in Kiev.
@Conor Treacy: Nail on head,
But sure it is no wonder the language used in these articles when they are all copied and pasted from AFP which is a French Government controlled news association.
@Pixie McMullen: Oh look, someone else who thinks ‘state-owned’ and ‘state-controlled’ are the same thing. Just because the two are mutually inclusive where you’re concerted, it doesn’t mean the same applies everywhere else.
@Harry Whitehead: Leave Harry’s terrorists alone. Did u not read yesterday that the english don’t consider ISIS a major threat anymore. Russia is the big bad wolf now. Saudi Arabia having killed 48,000 children in Yemen year to date are considered Harry and englands ally.
@Cal Mooney: “The English”? There hasn’t been an English state since the 1700s. Try and keep up Wally. And I’m still waiting for your examples of my having defended the Saudo regime.
Who to believe??….the Russians or Al-Qaeda.
@Derek Durkin: Neither!
@Derek Durkin: Maybe if you and Charliegrl80 took your head out of the western media and read some other news sources you would both have a better understanding of what`s going on, but i won`t hold my breath on either of you bothering, keep drinking the Koolaid.
@Pixie McMullen: Bore off comrade. RT’s that way, you’re on the wrong site.
@Harry Whitehead: Ah, There you are Harry, throwing in your pearls of wisdom as always..
For a bloke with a bio saying he is interested in history, politics, linguistics and current affairs, It is pretty laughable when all your actions on this site are always just little wisecracks, insults or comments with no substance.
@Derek Durkin: President Assad used chlorine, bombing civilians. The Russians, Assad’s ally, then use this to justify attacking a rebel group.
@Pixie McMullen: “For a bloke with…” blah blah blah. Didn’t you say more or less exactly the same thing a while back, comrade?
@Ryan Dub: So you are telling me that the Syrian army moved into the terrorists positions, fired a load of chlorine filled missiles on their own civilians into an area they hold, then moved back out giving the positions back to the Jihadis who waited patiently for the Russian air force to show up?
Where do you buy your weed? It seems to be a lot better than anything i can get.
@Pixie McMullen: “read some other news sources”
Translation: read something which refuses to criticise our Glorious Leader or his Aliies under ANY circumstance.
@Harry Whitehead: You really should be put in between 2 fingers and squeezed………like any other whitehead
@Pixie McMullen: For a bloke who whines about “wisecracks, insults or comments with no substance” you sure have a funny knack for farting them out yourself. Making whitehead jokes though? That’s lame even by your pisspoor standards.
@Harry Whitehead: You triggered hon?
Not very nice when you slag someone off who turns out to be better at slagging than yourself, is it?
Go have a wee lie down and a good cry
@Pixie McMullen: “turns out to be better at slagging” no comrade, that’s kinda the whole point. Never mind though, you keep telling yourself you’re Oscar Wilde reborn. Attaboy.
@Harry Whitehead: Harry grow up and drop the comrade crap, you come across clueless
@Michael Eric Devine: “Sorry, this content isn’t available right now” Mighty fine coincidence there, wouldn’t you say?
@Harry Whitehead: He has the Idiot blocker activated on his Facebook profile, That`s why you can`t see it `arry
@Harry Whitehead: you are such a damn cliche. You have to be an especially arrogant and delusional person to believe Russian agents are being paid to argue against you (the hint is you don’t have an actual argument you’re just slinging shit)
The absolute neck on you telling someone who raised a valid point the ‘other side’ is that way. You may have picked your side and chosen to unquestionably swallow all it presents, that’s entirely on you.
You’re everything that’s wrong with debate in 2018
@Michael Eric Devine: “Cliche!” squawked someone from with a fake profile and a kneekerk defensive reaction to anyone dissing Uncle Vlad and his pet regimes. LOLz
@Harry Whitehead: Harry give up responding you really are just making a fool of yourself
@Ryan Dub: if chlorine was used why have loads of people moved back into east ghouta
when chlorine bombs are used it makes houses uninhabitable for years
Russia’s RT broadcast claims that French special forces were involved in the attact…
“French special forces on the ground from where the missiles were fired”
Now Russia, conviently, has Casus belli to begin it’s Idlib campaign.
@Ryan Dub: army of islam and hayat tahrir al sham
the media for some reason never mentions these terrorists groups names.
they also infight alot and regularly change their names
The last real legitimate rebel groups you could say, not the islamic jihad groups in idlib, surrendered under reconciliation agreements in june the only requirement was to hand over heavy weapons and ieds they were let keep their ak47s and mgs and most took the offer to integrate themselves in to a syrian army division as they weren’t active in fighting for 2 years.
@David Jordan: Conveniently???
They have held off for the last 2 months after a ceasefire was brokered, The headhackers haven`t lived up to their part of the ceasefire, firing indiscriminately and refusing to relinquish the heave weaponry and move out of the buffer zone Turkey helped set up.
Russia and the SAA have every right to go on the offensive, as they are the only 2 legitimate forces in this war, but of course, you know all this already
I can`t wait to see the French and US Tomahawk missiles to start raining down on these headhacking western backed terrorists over the use of chemical weapons…..
@Pixie McMullen: Russia’s RT broadcast claims that French special forces were involved in the attact. This is grade A conspiracy rubbish.
“French special forces on the ground from where the missiles were fired”
Now Russia the Syrian government, conviently, have Casus belli to begin it’s Idlib / West Aleppo campaign. Russia and Syrian government forces have started bombing West Aleppo, breaking a months long ceasefire.
https://youtu.be/ApIhgFVa6-A?t=78
https://twitter.com/dannymakkisyria/status/1066647370115571713?s=21
@David Jordan: And you know this to be rubbish because……
Russia warned of chemical weapon in the hands of jihadis time and again over the last few months, there are reports that one terrorist group attacked another and took 2 cannisters of Chlorine from them a few weeks back, there are reports of chemical weapons being smuggled in over the turkish border to be used…
It wouldn`t surprise me in the slightest if this report is true, UK, US and French ALL have special forces on the ground in Syria, and have done for quite a few years now
@Pixie McMullen: for what it’s worth, the syriancivilwar sub on reddit which is pro-Syrian government and pro-Russia, is very skeptical that an attack actually took place. West Aleppo has been bombed by Syrian government and Russia for the first time in 75 days in response.
@David Jordan: Odd then that “The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights”, which has been relentlessly on the side of the “rebels” are confirming the chlorine attack.
@brendan fitzsimons: They didn’t confirm a chlorine attack, they reported on claims of a chlorine attack. Anyway, here we are a few days later, and still no proof that a chlorine attack happened. No dead, no chlorine cannisters, no results of an independent investigation. 1the OPCW and UN have not been asked to investigate – Russia has gone quiet on the story, it’s now all forgotten about as if it didn’t happen. News later on suggests people panicked.
BBC and the Guardian still hold onto myth that these rebels are moderate and not Al Queada or IS….Within a few years of start of civil war the rebels became radical Sunni Jahadi backed by Saudi… Qatar and the US….
The Russian Federation is not the same as the Communist led USSR. Under Putin, Russia has reinvigorated her Christian soul. The Western democracies can’t handle that. Where we in the West are witnessing constant attacks on Christianity, the same cannot be said about Russia.
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