WHILE MUCH OF the talk around the latest opinion poll has focussed on Sinn Féin pulling level with Fine Gael, the notable drop in support for Fianna Fáil is another headache for party leader Micheál Martin.
This morning’s Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll shows that Martin’s party has dropped five points since May to 20 per cent keeping it firmly in the ‘becalmed’ state it has been in for much of the past two years.
Though there are only four points between the two opposition parties it appears that Sinn Féin is proving to be a far more attractive proposition than Fianna Fáil for voters of an anti-government persuasion.
While Gerry Adams’s party talks definitively about abolishing water charges and the property tax, Fianna Fáil talks about making both charges fairer. It’s easy to see why proposing to scrap unpopular taxes is a much more tantalising proposition for voters who don’t necessarily worry about the practicalities of abolition.
Sinn Féin can also count on strong media performers like Mary Lou McDonald and Pearse Doherty. Fianna Fáil’s equivalents – the likes of Micheal McGrath and Dara Calleary – are competent but not nearly as impressive.
This means that Sinn Féin is making significant inroads on Fianna Fáil’s support as former deputy leader Éamon Ó Cuív noted this morning, saying the republican vote appears to have split between the two parties.
This means that the party must make “hard choices”, according to the former cabinet minister, who told Newstalk: “I think we have to keep looking at our party strategy and we have to re-affirm are we the party that are a republican party that stands for republican ideals – in its widest sense – or are we an upper-middle class party?”
On a practical level, beyond the ‘hard choices’, Fianna Fáil needs to start winning.
Yes, it became the largest party in local government last May, but that was somewhat overshadowed by its disastrous European elections where it took just one seat.
The party then suffered the ignominy of seeing that sole MEP, Brian Crowley, defect to a right-wing grouping in the European Parliament, effectively expelling himself from the parliamentary party.
It’s worth noting that Fianna Fáil, despite being the largest opposition party, has not won any of the four Dáil by-elections that have taken place since 2011. This includes two failed attempts at winning back the Dublin West Dáil seat vacated by the late Brian Lenihan.
Tomorrow it is not expected to win in Dublin South-West but will be hoping that its highly-rated candidate, John Lahart, can come in third place.
It’s a different story in Roscommon South-Leitrim where the Fianna Fáil candidate Ivan Connaughton is on course to take the seat though he faces a stiff challenge from the Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan-backed independent Michael Fitzmaurice.
Martin has spent a lot of time in the constituency in recent weeks and is no doubt aware of the importance for the party and his leadership that it wins the seat.
Failure to do so would inevitably lead to more questions about just where exactly is Fianna Fáil headed in the run-up to the next general election.
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