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THE 2011 GENERAL election couldn’t have gone any better for Fine Gael and Labour with both parties winning a historic number of Dáil seats.
Fine Gael’s record number of 76, combined with Labour’s record number of 37, ensured a bullet-proof majority that has been eroded over the last five years but was still untouchable at the conclusion of the 31st Dáil earlier this month.
In this general election both parties are running separate campaigns, but at the same time hoping to be re-elected to govern together for another five years. While the latest polls indicate that’s unlikely to happen, the parties have just under two weeks to change their own fortunes.
But strategists on both sides quietly acknowledge something which has become blatantly obvious to political observers examining the various constituencies in recent months: Fine Gael cannot have a good day without Labour having a bad day – and vice versa.
“I’m really worried about Labour,” said one senior Fine Gael strategist at the party’s Ard Fheis last month, acknowledging that the collapse of the junior coalition partner’s vote might benefit Fine Gael but, crucially, won’t get the government back into office.
Alternatively, a good day for Labour will see it hold on in certain constituencies by scraping enough votes together for the final seat. In some areas this will come at the expense of Fine Gael.
It’s no wonder the Irish Independent reported late last month that Labour strategists are planning to ‘take out’ so-called ‘second-tier’ Fine Gael candidates in certain constituencies.
Second-tier or not, the problem of Fine Gael v Labour for the last seat is particularly acute in Dublin.
Take Dublin-Rathdown, now a three-seater, where Labour’s Alex White is fighting for his political life. If he is to take the third seat it will most likely come at the expense of Fine Gael’s second candidate, councillor Josepha Madigan.
Alternatively, Madigan could knock out White if Fine Gael has a good day in a constituency where it has traditionally been very strong.
In nearby Dublin Bay South, the last of four seats could come down to a battle between the incumbent Labour TD Kevin Humphreys and the insurgent Fine Gael councillor Kate O’Connell.
She could benefit from the transfers of the expected poll-topper Eoghan Murphy in a traditional Fine Gael stronghold. Either way, it’s hard to see them both getting elected.
In Dublin Bay North the sitting Labour TD Aodhán Ó Ríordáin could come under threat from Fine Gael councillor and former Dublin lord mayor Naoise Ó Muirí, who is closely aligning himself with expected poll-topper Richard Bruton in a bid to maximise his chances of election.
In Dublin North-West, Fine Gael is hoping to win a seat in the only constituency where it it did not get any TD elected in 2011 and has high hopes for councillor Noel Rock.
But Rock’s election would likely come at the expense of sitting Labour TD John Lyons who cannot count on the surplus of his now former Labour colleague Róisín Shortall this time around.
But it’s not just a problem for the two parties in Dublin.
A good day for Fine Gael in Cork South-Central would see Jerry Buttimer re-elected along with Simon Coveney, but this would almost certainly come at the expense of Labour’s Ciarán Lynch.
In Galway West, Labour’s Derek Nolan has a fighting chance of keeping his seat in the old stomping ground of Michael D Higgins. But his election would likely push out the two Fine Gael hopefuls, John O’Mahony and Hildegarde Naughten, who are vying for a seat.
In Limerick City the last of four seats is likely to be a battle between Labour’s Education Minister Jan O’Sullivan and Fine Gael backbencher Kieran O’Donnell, who’ll be hoping that transfers from Michael Noonan will secure his re-election. O’Sullivan will hope her status as a minister will aid her bid to hold her seat.
In Tipperary the re-election of Alan Kelly seems a good bet after his, er, high-profile in recent weeks, but that will likely come at the expense of the second Fine Gael candidate Noel Coonan. Alternatively, on a really bad day for Labour, Kelly does not hold his seat and Coonan seats the last of the five on offer.
Despite vastly different electoral systems, this problem has been likened to what happened in last year’s UK general election where the Conservatives won an unexpected majority as a result of taking dozens of seats off its coalition partner, the Liberal Democrats.
The problem for Fine Gael is that even if it does take seats off Labour in all of the aforementioned constituencies it does not have a realistic chance of an overall majority, which is why party strategists on both sides are worried.
Labour does need Fine Gael in this election, particularly in areas like Dublin West where Joan Burton is likely to be reliant on Leo Varadkar to hold her seat.
But ironically, in lots of areas. it could well be the case that the biggest barrier to the re-election of the two coalition parties is each other.
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The Government really don’t care about the housing crisis and the impact it’s having on a whole generation. They have ripped the social contract to shreds in Ireland. Sooner they are kicked out of office the better, especially Fine Gael.
@Daryl Walsh: Couldn’t get a builder myself during COVID.
@zephyrum: We need to stop using excuses. As John Taffer says. “”I don’t embrace excuses, I embrace solutions.”
Our lot need to do better.
@Daryl Walsh:
Tell us where they are going to get the builders…
The Government don’t pay cash in hand..
@Jack Dermody:
Cash in hand comment is such a classic government apologist line.
Yea lets blame literally the only people building houses for the housing crisis.
The Irish government who pays 2 billion for a hospital has trouble finding builders??
Throw your vote in the bin come general election, it’s clear where its going.
@Jack Dermody: I have worked on many building sites over the years and know a fair few guys. And the number one thing that attracts workers is not pay, but a permanent job. All this bogus self employment has meant that a huge proportion of our workers have no reason to stay.or even come back. They may as well be working abroad than here week to week with no holiday pay and very few entitlements.
The government(s) have known about this problem for years and done nothing about it.
Apprentices, like medical staff, are gone as soon as they qualify
I’m sure it might suit some but if you want to keep people look at a long term building programme with secure jobs and you’ll get people.
@zephyrum: you couldn’t get a lot during covid….
@Jack Dermody: cut the social in half after 6 months.
There needs to be legislation to prevent these funds from being used to repurchase the 17,000 residences held by 10 corporations. The French people would not put up with so why do we?
There needs to be legislation to prevent these funds from being used to repurchase the 17,000 residences held by 10 corporations.
@Jimmy Donovan: we have become so accepting now to inept, immoral corrupt governments. The political system should be changed. People need to vote these lot out.
@Dave Barrett: and put the IRA in charge?
I think I’ll pass on that one.
@John Mulligan: maybe get your mentors in the FFG party to create the conditions to attract and retain people to the trades.
When there is a so called senior banker shortage Pascal is shouting for lifting their pay caps and reintroducing senior banker bonuses. But sure tha was always the FG way, now FF infected the same way.
@John Mulligan: Yawn yawn and more yawns..
So the question remains. How much DID they spend, and WHAT did they spend it on because it sounds like they done feck all in the last 100years never mind 3
I heard a builder say the problem overall are the sewage systems ..They do not have the capacity and it needs to be upgraded ASAP..to allow the building of more houses
@Marianne Sherlock: that’s certainly the case in my local area.
@Marianne Sherlock: that and the road network. I’ve seen particularly in Dublin large housing estates going up on narrow country roads which creates traffic havoc.
@Marianne Sherlock: there are no more houses allowed in my area until the sewerage system is upgraded.
Of course Ireland will need 50k new homes for years to come.
This is what happens when you needlessly vote for the same two right wing laissez faire capitalist parties over an over again.
Stop voting for self-harm.
That is a lot of money!
None of this makes sense!
Emergency powers should be used and that money should be spent.
@Michael Mc Gee: no emergency power You are playing into their hands
The whole thing is manufactured. The evidence is there. they did everything possible to create the problem, now is the reaction stage, the solution that will be offered will be the erosion and debasement of Article 43/ private property rights. They need enough people on the edge in dire situations to push that objective through. All deliberate, we are being played folks.
@Peter John McDaid: what is the ultimate goal of your conspiracy?
@Peter John McDaid: The right reaction would be to hand hang them outside the Dáil by the neck as a lesson to those that come after them.
@Craic_a_tower: It is clear to anyone with a modicum of intelligence that the govt created this situation. Undermining article 43 is the objective. Old couple that own and live in a three or four bedroom house, CPO them out. People that worked hard and own a second home, CPO it off them. The “greater good” etc.
@Peter John McDaid: it is weird how people look at the same details and come up with a different theory. Some think politicians are forcing house prices for their personal benefit while others think it so they will lose rights to their own property. Very strange thoughts given incompetence and populist policies explain it much more simply
@Peter John McDaid: Certainly Ireland could do with more townhouses so that people could afford to buy their own smaller homes. Okay to have theories but plenty of people would voluntarily move to smaller local homes if there were any available. No need to imagine dramatic scenarios.
How do you build during a lockdown?
@Emmet Murphy: Also how can you build if you haven’t enough construction workers?
@Emmet Murphy: Swear it wasn’t government that put us into lockdown
@Daryl Walsh: I’d say it was the pandemic, swears…
@Aidan Farrell: The question is how did a labour shortage ensue when one in four men in Ireland were working in construction until around 2009-10?
@Seamus Enright: the older generation were prepared to do manual work, today’s are more into third level and I.T ,how many apprenticeships do you hear of nowadays.
@Mark Sheehan: A pure waste of time working for free though Mark. Pay apprentices a decent wage and they will appear.
@David Corrigan: They should get paid a bit more than 80-90% of minimum wage alright though you don’t get paid anything for studying in University so the comparison is a bit invidious, particularly when you could still end up with less money after getting many college degrees.
Mind you, there seems to be plenty of labour to build hotels and we bend over backwards to allow companies like TikTok to build data centres because here because of all the construction jobs they provide, which I find the most bizarre thing of all.
@Emmet Murphy: Ireland had record homelessness BEFORE the pandemic.
You handily ignore that.
@Seamus Enright: A little thing like the property bust stopped building completely and many of the workers retired, emigrated or changed jobs to different sectors. It will take many years to get the employment numbers back to those levels. The only current way to increase the workforce is bring in foreign operatives which is not easy given our expensive accommodation and taxation system !!!!
@Chris Gaffney: With all the unemployed builders around at that time the government could have invested in public housing but they seemed to think that paying off 34% of Europe’s overall banking debt was a better idea.
The FFFG government has probably done this so as they can use the money to buy the election when it comes around.
24,000 homes built is more than enough houses for 11,754 people homeless. What am I not getting?
@Keith Twamley: Well the fact that there are thousands of people still living at home with parents, wanting to rent or buy that are not included in homeless figures, is just one thing you’re missing.
@Daryl Walsh: Numbers just constantly going up though, something doesn’t feel right. Needs to be a lot more transparency as to where all these houses are going.
@Keith Twamley: Those homes are being snapped up in bulk by the vulture funds Keith. They leave very little for the citizens to buy.
@Daryl Walsh: Garden sheds as a spare sitting room to have breathing space while saving up for a mortgage?
@Keith Twamley: by all accounts Ireland needs 50k new builds a year and HAS needed about that number for a decade…. But when you care more about landlords than any other voting block, supply and demand dictates you don’t worry so much about supply.
@Mise Eire: The trouble is that people do need to use a toilet and you can’t add one to a garden shed! They will be uninsulated as well.
Yet last week shovel ready school building projects were told they are halted due to budgetary constraints. In a week where corporation tax take is over a billion more than they thought and Darragh O Brien has a billion behind the couch, WTAF is going on here? Infuriating stuff.
No builders available? All I’m seeing is apartment block after apartment block spring up all over the place!
@Tony Harris: Agreed, and every affordable apartment has to pay maintenance fees into the bargain instead of doing their own.
How does this Country operate, when our planning/political/environment is in the toilet? As long as we keep the old parties like FF/FG/L/SF in existence and keep voting for them. We will never reach our potential, to be a great Country and where most things work properly. If it wasn’t for the EU, Pakistan would be in a better place than we are now.
All those modular homes that could have been built on state land,while eviction ban was in…..fast tract building…mindboggling.
Frightening how poorly informed the comments are , and how so many seem to have completely succumbed to populism. The next gov will be dealt the exact same hand and will also disappoint you . Why? Because the construction ecosystem has become impossiblly difficult (for Ireland & most other European countries) with some factors well beyond the control of governments. But hey, dont let a fact or two interrupt your rants.
@Paul Duffy: Ah don’t spoil their fun!!
@Paul Duffy: A fact or two? What fact or two? You haven’t given any, just criticised other posters.
“€1 billion left unspent by Govt on housing projects over the past 3 years” plus the massive amount of extra/additional overspend of Euro’s the cash cow to developers that is the new national hospital is costing….€1 billion is equal to 2,800 building units costing €350,000 each to build from scratch to completion. €350,000 spread over let’s say 30 years equals to €11,666 per year or just over €970 per month. This figure is way way below the average rent paid by tenants to private landlords. Now if the Govt became landlords and spent €1 billion on 2,800 housing units they would receive €2.7 million per month in rent.
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