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The term is not nearly as complex as it sounds. Put simply, it’s the amount of money that will be be available to the next government over and above what it is already spending on public services like health, welfare, education and so on.
The money does not yet exist and is dependent on strong economic growth of around 3% over the next five years. But it has now emerged that Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Labour had all been miscalculating the fiscal space in recent weeks with the embarrassing result – for them – that only Sinn Féin has its numbers right.
For Fine Gael and Labour this is particularly serious given they claim to have the only credible economic plans for the country over the next five years. But, in fact, the figures they have bandied about in recent weeks have been wrong by a massive €2 billion.
How did this happen?
sam boal
sam boal
Less than two weeks ago Finance Minister Michael Noonan told the Fine Gael Ard Fheis that the money available would be €12 billion:
Our Expenditure Rule ensures that our commitments are sustainable by capping the growth of budgetary commitments at below the long-term growth of the economy.
This rule will limit new budgetary commitments to €12 billion over the five years from 2017 to 2021. This is half of the budgetary expansion in the last five budgets in the years which preceded the crash introduced by the Fianna Fail led Government.
As for the Labour party, Public Expenditure and Reform Minister Brendan Howlin said pretty much the same thing at the party’s conference last weekend:
The figures, confirmed by the Department of Finance, given to all the parties in replies by the Department of Finance, is €12 billion and that, I believe, is the figure we should work on.
Sam Boal
Sam Boal
How did they reach that number?
The two parties based their figures on what they said the Department of Finance was telling them. The department released an information note last week which explained how it calculated the fiscal space.
It said the gross fiscal space was €10.9 billion if economic growth over the next five years is on average 3%. It then included €1.4 billion as a result of the expected relaxation of EU fiscal rules on deficits because Ireland’s economy is performing so strongly.
Included in the note, the Department said that if the next government did not apply indexation then €2 billion would become available.
What’s indexation?
This involves adjusting tax rates and bands to keep up with inflation, which is the rising cost of goods and services. Indexation would also involve increasing social welfare payments to keep up with inflation. Effectively it means that as the cost of living rises, the government adjusts taxes and welfare payments accordingly.
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But this is a decision for a government to make, not the civil service. This is why the Department of Finance assumed that the indexation would not apply.
So what did the parties get wrong?
Labour interpreted the Department of Finance figures to mean that the structural balance in 2021 would be €8.6 billion. It then claimed that €2 billion from non-indexation of taxes as well as the €1.4 billion from the relaxation of fiscal rules would create a total space of €12 billion. Fine Gael appeared to do the same.
Sam Boal
Sam Boal
To further confuse matters, Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin claimed on RTÉ News on Wednesday that the fiscal space would be €8.6 billion before claiming the non-indexation of taxes would generate a further €2bn.
However, Labour is now privately admitting that the tax indexation figure of €2 billion was double-counted and should have been included in the €8.6 billion figure.
Who got it right?
It was left to Sinn Féin to clarify matters when it put the following statement in an email to the chief economist in the Department of Finance John McCarthy:
The potential additional revenue that would be generated from a political decision not to proceed with indexation is approximately €2 billion. This additional revenue from not indexing is included in the net fiscal space figure of €8.6 billion. Conversely, the net fiscal space of €8.6 billion cannot be increased from non indexation.
McCarthy responded that this was indeed correct. Therefore the available fiscal space, when non-indexation is included, is €8.6 billion.
Leah Farrell
Leah Farrell
This is how much Sinn Féin says is available to spend over the next five years. Fianna Fáil now agrees with that number. A spokesperson confirmed this morning that the party is working off €8.6 billion being available.
What are Fine Gael and Labour working off?
Fine Gael says the fiscal space is €10.1 billion, because it’s including the €1.5 billion it says has been freed-up by the loosening EU fiscal rules, which allow Ireland to run a small deficit in 2018. The party launched its so-called long term economic plan yesterday.
Labour is now also saying the figure is €10.1 billion but adds that it will create additional resources by raising extra revenue. It’s publishing its fiscal plan next week. Speaking today, Howlin suggested that the government, if re-elected, could exceed the €10.1 billion figure:
I believe we will exceed them as we have done in everything we’ve done for the last five years and the fiscal space will be greater than that. But we will act on the basis of prudence.
But in this case it appears that Sinn Féin is the only major party to get the figures right. Howlin wasn’t prepared to acknowledge that today, saying only:
I’ve no quibble with Sinn Féin. I do have a quibble with Sinn Féin economics normally.
But when economic competence is all-important when it comes to the next government, it appears the current one screwed up the numbers – and that’s not good for its re-election hopes.
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The entire political, corporate, media and academic establishment peddle fantasy economics when they pretend that fiat currency money is somehow a scarce commodity and not created at will on the computer keyboards of the world’s central and commercial banks. There can always be as much (or as little) money as there needs to be to fully utilize the resources of society. Any shortage of money is a political choice which serves the interest of private capital.
With the Eurozone, they’ve turned their fantasy into reality with the member states reduced to the status of children pleading with the big daddy ECB for their pocket money. It would be funny if the consequences for the working class were not so serious.
90% of new wealth goes to the top 1/10 of 1% Tickle down economics is the real fantasy. Even when it works which it never does, the wealth only ‘trickles’ down. The idea that any type of recovery can happen under these circumstances is the real fantasy. I would encourage everyone to bring this story to at least one persons attention even if it means boring the sh!t out of them. The Fine Gael/ Labour way of doing things is unsustainable even with the application of acute austerity. Imagine what a disaster it would be without it.
We seriously need to get these people out.
Wally ,when it comes to hard cash nobody or party can touch SF ,they have lots of experience of burning it ,shoving it under floor boards and behind luxury baths .You have.to hand it to them ♨️
This has actually impressed me and made me seriously reconsider SF, as for the other three muppet parties. Forget it. If they can use a calculator they’re certainly not getting my vote, ok they weren’t getting it anyway.
I was just thinking the same. It’s going to be very difficult for a person of my era to vote SF but I have been grappling with it and I think the time may have come. I think the polls don’t reflect this but a lot of people now feel that way.
Wally while I agree fiat currency is essentially fantasy money, that doesn’t mean I think we should keep printing more and more of it. In fact I think the opposite. Currency should really be fixed to something to prevent hyperinflation and excessive quantitative easing is a risky policy to pursue.
To quote Ron Paul: “This is gold, Mr. Bond. All my life I’ve been in love with its color… its brilliance, its divine heaviness.”
The real Question is, will the civil servants who came up with the figure get the Sack.? Or was this a deliberate massaging of the figures and their jobs are safe as unbuilt FG social houses.
I have to say I’m absolutely shocked that such a story is indeed being printed. Aren’t there supposed to be all only bad stories re ‘Shinnernomics’ being run now an election is in the offing? Are you coming around to ‘Proper politics for the People’ Hugh?
Is describing FG supporters “blueshirts” like describing SF the “Provos” mind you the blue shirts were nearly 75 years ago and the Provost well! are still in existsnce though thankfully now putting up posters! Instead of shooting people!
This “fiscal space” malfunction is a massive kick in the peanuts for Fine Gael. Sinn Fein have been handed a huge opportunity to gain votes they wouldn’t have counted on a few days ago and I expect them to make the most of it over the coming weeks.
Any word on the inept accountant knowing about the abuse allegations 20 years ago?they seem to be circling the wagons again.Between this and the way he treated the hep c patients he needs to go immediately. #slimeball
Lads the success of this government is there to be seen and felt everywhere you look 40000 new cars in One month ,retail up massively ,unemployment down by half ,nurses and engineers and others happy to return and confidence about the future .The Shinners little experience as part of a UK government with no opposition speaks for itself .The Irish people are not that gullible to think that SF can be trusted with high office here .
delighted you’re here Pol – tell me this (as no SF rep has called to the door yet)…
If Gerry was elected to the big T. would he negotiate with terrorists?
What if the SF position on me shooting someone if I don’t like their political views – such as my next door neighbour who appears to be a bit of a nazi?
And lastly – can you tell me … does SF believe in a united Ireland? If not, which of the 26 would you boot out? (My preference would be Cork … they consider themselves separate anyway)
Best slogan yet for a poster. Very memorable. The figures have never added up, especially for IW , Poolbeg incinerator, The hospital that will never be built, the voting machines in storage and the list goes on.
Yawn! Grow up Darby. This article is about economics. I’m sure you can use your comment in the other countless articles that Hugh O’Connell will print about the troubles. No doubt he will alert you to them on the right wing lunatic network.
Noonan has a Degree in Economics, Enda is a former school teacher and Joan an Accountant. And they all missed this massive Financial and Mathematical mistake. Doherty no College Degree, particularly no Economic or Accounting Degree and he spots it. Only makes this mistake all the more massively monumental. And if anything highlights the current leaders of Ireland as being incompetent, inept, useless and embarrassingly stupid
So tom Kelly sf advisors were able to do the maths and show the truth. Fg , labour and ff advisors can’t do the maths and were obviously spouting lies. Moral of the story sf were right , the rest were wrong.
For those ignorantly obsessed about degrees being the be all and end all,
UK Finaance Minister(the one championing the Conservative party’s 19th century Austerity dogma)
GEORGE OSBORNE’s Degree is in History.
Mind you 40 Economists have lambasted The British Conservative party’s Economic policies
(who Fine Gael are busy trying plagerise after several top level consultations with them)
and backed Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party policies:
“The accusation is widely made that Jeremy Corbyn and his supporters have moved to the extreme left on economic policy. But this is not supported by the candidate’s statements or policies.
Jeremy Corbyn wins economists’ backing for anti-austerity policies
Read more
His opposition to austerity is actually mainstream economics, even backed by the conservative IMF. He aims to boost growth and prosperity. He voted against the shameful £12bn in cuts in the welfare bill.
Despite the barrage of media coverage to the contrary, it is the current government’s policy and its objectives which are extreme. The attempt to produce a balanced public sector budget primarily through cuts to spending failed in the previous parliament. Increasing child poverty and cutting support for the most vulnerable is unjustifiable. Cutting government investment in the name of prudence is wrong because it prevents growth, innovation and productivity increases, which are all much needed by our economy, and so over time increases the debt due to lower tax receipts.
We the undersigned are not all supporters of Jeremy Corbyn. But we hope to clarify just where the “extremism” lies in the current economic debate. “
So Sinn Féin have just showed up Fianna Fail, Fine Gael & Labour for being absolutely clueless and it’s only the start of the campaign. The Government said SF figures don’t add up when in fact they can’t even get the basic figures correct.
We won’t mention that the SF shadow budget was independently accosted by DOF and found to be balanced and do-able for want of a better word. FF shadow budget was out by €600,000,000 ( thought the zeros would show the absolute joke of it) but no msm made a comment on this!! And they want us to vote these clowns back in?? Jesus wept
Easy done in fairness.It’s the type of money you find down the back of your sofa.Hold on,I read it as €2. How do ya miss out on a couple of BILLION.Would be funny if it wasn’t so serious…
Fg had to follow what was laid out by the previous government so it was an easy ride the last 5 years…but look what happens when they have to produce their own finances..incompetent is an understatment..these people can not be trusted to do anything right..god help the people of ireland if Fg get in again..remember this “the people have the power”
They obviously just forgot to factor in how much they were planning to give to Denis O’Brien in those brown envelopes. €2,000,000,000 sounds about right.
So fg, labour and ff have been playing fantasy economics , not been able to do maths and its sf that has the numbers right. Really is a case of pants on fire
I think they’ll find it’s a lot closer to the Fiscal authority figure of 3.2 billion euro.
The expenditure benchmark kicks in this year from ‘our friends’ in Brussels.
Bailout countries like Ireland are harder hit than most.
Economist Constantin Gurdgiev reckons approx €4.3 billion, but that this is totally unreliable past 2017 anyway.. others like Stephen Kinsella agree. But, seriously, can anyone recall when any of the establishment’s economic forecasts were even close months in advance, let alone 5yrs?
As ever, the Irish public are being played..
Bottom line? Don’t vote for FG, FF or Labour. None of these parties, by their *record* (never mind what BS they give you) deserve your trust.
More FG lies, saying theyl cut USC. Fair play to SF for catching them out. No fiscal space for cutting USC afterall but theyl continue to spin that lie. Isnt that what you do during an election.
The Journal writing a pro Sinn Fein article???? Oh how the times they are a changing………………. thy must have realized Sinn Fein will probably be running the country soon and they need to tow the line!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Tara i’ve been looking all over the place to find this out, seems too good to be true, would you be able to give me an example to look at much appreciated :)
Well to keep any credibility he had to publish this monumental error , if he didn’t he would be accused of hiding the facts to favour FG , a no win situation for Hugh , I am still waiting for the story on Noonan knowing about child abuse for 20 + years and not reporting it , That really says it all for me about the character of this vile human being
FG certainly having a bad election so far. Day 1, down 2% in the polls, day 2 it’s revealed they can’t do maths, …. They are already a joke. Looks like the FG seat losses will need revising upwards from 15-20 to 22 -26
The Noonan disease.
Michael Noonan Is a breed of Limerick criminal that are dying from a series of diseases called political dystrophy quite quickly. This particular disease ravages areas of the mind that are deprived of truth serums on a regular basis for years at a time. The disease is noticeable in people who have begun to actually believe they’re own con. The Dundons Limerick criminals of another sort, and they’re ilk are almost gone. Noonan and his ilk are not fare behind. We must be vigilant. We can never give up on the Nations need to destroy the Noonan disease, already it has become viral and is in danger of taking over all the National grids where honesty is an integral part of the successful operation of said grids: School system, Communal system, Social system, Economic System, Banking System, Etc
” Yes, everyone has noticed the gang of phonies from the three main parties trotting out garbage about the seriously flawed printed report into the banking inquiry. Perfect example of the Noonan disease.
All but one of these turds and lackeys had one or two redeemable but not remarkable qualities.
Some of these FG FF apologists were just backroom boys when this deadly bailout deal went down.
The leadership of Fianna Fail and FG agreed to sign away 60 billions in money belonging to the Irish peoples, to the Krauts. Remember Germany is the richest Nation in Europe.
It has since been brought to our attention that this amount represented roughly half the total average European debt accumulated in a financial period.
Chicken feed for 270 odd million European people, but for Ireland’s tiny population to deal with this debt it was back breaking, heart breaking and soul destroying.
Though he was the recipient of Bertie’s poison chalice. ” Cheek by jowl Brian the cow and gate Cowen ” was key to this sell out of the Irish people.
Garret Fitzgerald always found Cowen a promising student of Keynesian economics. ” Supply and demand economics”
Biffo was not prepared for what was expected of him by the banksters in ”Germany, London, Washington DC and the City of Rome.” or able to deal with the staggering impact
on the Irish people, especially the young, of the payback terms.
Remember the Irish people are still being squeezed for this money by ”Germany, London, Washington DC and the City of Rome.” The bond holders have basically been dealt with.
The criminal cabals in the last four mentioned locations are demanding and are being given a stake in the infrastructure of the Island of Ireland.
This is what Brain Cowen and the late Brian Lenahan are guilty of.
By creating NAMA and investing it with the power to dispose of property and power belonging to the people of Ireland, they have sold the people of Ireland into slavery.”
All these politicians are beginning to look like a clutch of chickens fighting over an egg that has not yet even been laid!!!!
Fiscal space, tax indexation, budgetary commitments, yes, these are all phrases that Mrs. and Mr. Joe Ordinary use every day round the breakfast/dinner table.
Like in all previous elections all these grand promises and predictions will melt like snow in a furnace as soon as they are elected.
Much of this talk about ‘fiscal space’ is really discussing by how much each political party thinks they can buy the next election. I don’t really see much talk about how we can sustainably reduce national debt while addressing the larger social problems which have developed over the course of the bailout period.
Credit to SF
Hope the other parties take a leaf from their book and all promise no increase in public spending for the next 5 years. We dont have the fiscal space for it.
“Sinn Féin’s finance spokesperson Pearse Doherty said that the three other parties manifestos – which have not yet been published – should be withdrawn and “shredded”. He said the majority of the fiscal space would be used to invest in public services.”
This looks like a bit more than a lie.It looks like gross incompetence compounded by a lie.A huge question mark now hangs over the rest of their figures.It seems that they were promising “twice the sex with half the foreplay”, and guess who they were eyeing up to be screwed.
Enda says we have a choice …. That choice is now different ….. Miscalculations from Parties (ie cooking the books to get a vote then telling the people when they’re voted in we didn’t know the books were as bad so we can’t keep our promises)….. Or Fantasy Economics which turn out to be more of a true story than The Lord of The Rings Trilogy ….Those 3 leaders must be loving Geraldo Adams right now lol
This may remind people that FG was essentially elected by default, and that there was a good reason we didn’t elect them in back in the Bertie days.
(And, no, I’m not a FF supporter either…)
People in Ireland need to realise that we have been led by people only interested in feathering their nests for years, we are in the biggest mess since the formation of the state, its time for serious change, so forget past history, thats gone , look to our future and vote in some real change for once..what harm can it do?
Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different outcome is madness..
Can we now see a serious debate with party leaders, not a staged RTE production but a face to face serious challenge. We deserve to see the electioneering mantras and one liners teased out.
No pre question itinerary,no ear pieces, just a good old fashioned straight talking journalist with the guts to challenge the B/S. A Jeremy Paxman type of person, someone who would treat them all with equal contempt.
Not rod, you and yours are been caught out in your deceit, lies and treachery, your type will always have your followers, unfortunately our 32 county Ireland always had her share of traitors.
Looks like FF have nicked their slogan from the Maltese Labour Party. MLP used the “Malta for All” in their last general election. Sincerest form of flattery I guess. ☺☺
“The term is not nearly as complex as it sounds. Put simply, it’s the amount of money that will be be available to the next government over and above what it is already spending on public services like health, welfare, education and so on.”
Listening to news at one today. Pearse Doherty and Michael McGrath spent half an hour telling everyone what they were going to do, build houses, pump money into the health service, cut USC, increase pensions, reverse lots of cuts etc. etc. I was under the impression that the country is still broke, still in a recession, still borrowing money for day to day expenses, still owe 181 billion, so I was wondering where is this money they were busy promising to spend coming from? Both of them were talking SH**e. The only space either of them have is between their ears.
Alan, you’ll find that SF are looking to spend the least amount of money compared to the other major parties. Hell Fine Gael and Labour think that they’ll be able to spend nearly double the amount of money that SF are predicting.
Alan, the truth came out about the FG Fiscal Space so surely that is a good thing. Why are you upset?
BTW, FG have also promised to build houses and spend, spend, spend.
Perhaps the only space you have is the crack between your lower cheeks.
Now chill out and applaud the fact that the fag packet Fiscal Force cock-up has been found wanting. I might even elevate SF to a higher preference for their hard work.
@Christy & Jason
Automatically both of you jumped to the conclusion I am a Fine Gael or Labour Supporter. I am Not.
If you read my comment again You will find I mentioned 2 politicians from 2 different parties. Without a second thought both of you jumped to defend Sinn Feinn., Did either of you hear the Horse SH**e Doherty and McGrath were churning out?
I think not.
Hey Hugh why dont you come straight out and tell everyone you have a hard on for FG…..
Journalism is supposed to be unbiased but I suppose your looking for scraps from the table and a place in the party ?
FG/FF/Labour are all brutal at economics and caused this recession and SF were never involved, are you and your Nazi comrades afraid off being called out by real and fair economic policies or would you rather the usual olde Criminal economics to suit the 1% and REDACTED….
This is huge news. RTE dulled it down so much, said nothing much happened yesterday , I can’t believe it. They lied again for votes. I’m switching to Sinn Fein.
Nevermind it is premised on future projections of growth that, with the China stock market crash and unstable world markets, is fantasy economics. The only way to ensure a “fiscal space” is to tax corporations and billionares and use it for public investment. Something all the major parties got wrong. AAA-PBP have it right.
Looks like another SF promice broek, just caught up RTE nees and they said they would take FF into Governent as junior party after saying they would not a fre weeks ago.
Vote for SF is now as good as a vote for FF.
SF last a few das afo the space was over 9 billion as well….
SF have stated they will only go into government with a party which has signed up fully to the right2change policy principles, whether its FF or anyone else.
“Pearse Doherty, Sinn Fein’s top economics chap, got out his calculator. He had the same access to the Department of Finance explanatory note on which all the “fiscal space” chatter was based. And he began insisting that the figures didn’t add up.
What had happened was simple. Fine Gael took the Department of Finance figure of €8.6bn and added its bits and pieces to sex it up – and didn’t notice that €2bn of the figures they were adding were already included in the €8.6bn.
Of course, everyone knows that anyone outside the FG/FF/Labour/Renua cartel is a wrecker who can’t add up. The right-wing of Irish politics, which brought us the credit bubble, the economic crash, the bank guarantee and five years of reckless austerity, are the sensible people.
And Doherty was just a noisy Shinner, therefore best ignored. Sinn Fein wrote to the department, asked for confirmation of its figures and got that confirmation.
On Thursday last, RTE’s Prime Time did the same. Katie Hannon and David McCullough almost ruefully disclosed the truth that evening. The parties quickly erased €2bn from their figures. And the Michael Noonan fans began practising their nonchalant whistling.”
Fascist Sinn Fein pretends to to lecture us about getting numbers wrong.
“They haven’t gone away you know”.
We don’t know the exact number of the hidden guns I suppose.
We know that the hidden guns are still there.
The mantra of a gunman.
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Information regarding which content is presented to you and how you interact with it can be used to determine whether the (non-advertising) content e.g. reached its intended audience and matched your interests. For instance, whether you read an article, watch a video, listen to a podcast or look at a product description, how long you spent on this service and the web pages you visit etc. This is very helpful to understand the relevance of (non-advertising) content that is shown to you.
Understand audiences through statistics or combinations of data from different sources 74 partners can use this purpose
Reports can be generated based on the combination of data sets (like user profiles, statistics, market research, analytics data) regarding your interactions and those of other users with advertising or (non-advertising) content to identify common characteristics (for instance, to determine which target audiences are more receptive to an ad campaign or to certain contents).
Develop and improve services 83 partners can use this purpose
Information about your activity on this service, such as your interaction with ads or content, can be very helpful to improve products and services and to build new products and services based on user interactions, the type of audience, etc. This specific purpose does not include the development or improvement of user profiles and identifiers.
Use limited data to select content 37 partners can use this purpose
Content presented to you on this service can be based on limited data, such as the website or app you are using, your non-precise location, your device type, or which content you are (or have been) interacting with (for example, to limit the number of times a video or an article is presented to you).
Use precise geolocation data 46 partners can use this special feature
With your acceptance, your precise location (within a radius of less than 500 metres) may be used in support of the purposes explained in this notice.
Actively scan device characteristics for identification 27 partners can use this special feature
With your acceptance, certain characteristics specific to your device might be requested and used to distinguish it from other devices (such as the installed fonts or plugins, the resolution of your screen) in support of the purposes explained in this notice.
Ensure security, prevent and detect fraud, and fix errors 92 partners can use this special purpose
Always Active
Your data can be used to monitor for and prevent unusual and possibly fraudulent activity (for example, regarding advertising, ad clicks by bots), and ensure systems and processes work properly and securely. It can also be used to correct any problems you, the publisher or the advertiser may encounter in the delivery of content and ads and in your interaction with them.
Deliver and present advertising and content 99 partners can use this special purpose
Always Active
Certain information (like an IP address or device capabilities) is used to ensure the technical compatibility of the content or advertising, and to facilitate the transmission of the content or ad to your device.
Match and combine data from other data sources 72 partners can use this feature
Always Active
Information about your activity on this service may be matched and combined with other information relating to you and originating from various sources (for instance your activity on a separate online service, your use of a loyalty card in-store, or your answers to a survey), in support of the purposes explained in this notice.
Link different devices 53 partners can use this feature
Always Active
In support of the purposes explained in this notice, your device might be considered as likely linked to other devices that belong to you or your household (for instance because you are logged in to the same service on both your phone and your computer, or because you may use the same Internet connection on both devices).
Identify devices based on information transmitted automatically 88 partners can use this feature
Always Active
Your device might be distinguished from other devices based on information it automatically sends when accessing the Internet (for instance, the IP address of your Internet connection or the type of browser you are using) in support of the purposes exposed in this notice.
Save and communicate privacy choices 69 partners can use this special purpose
Always Active
The choices you make regarding the purposes and entities listed in this notice are saved and made available to those entities in the form of digital signals (such as a string of characters). This is necessary in order to enable both this service and those entities to respect such choices.
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