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WITH MANY COUNTS complete, all eyes will now be on the formation of the next government.
With Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael likely to form another partnership (having both ruled out doing business with Sinn Féin), the former rivals will need to find a way to shore up their combined numbers and form a stable majority in the Dáil.
That’s where Independent TDs and the smaller parties come in – or will they?
Social Democrats Holly Cairns said in a statement on Sunday evening that her party will talk to “all the other parties” about government formation in due course, but Labour leader Ivana Bacik has sounded a more cautious note this weekend, insisting she hopes to form a common platform with other parties on the left before any government talks.
TDs in these parties may not want to end up facing a near total wipeout like the Greens in five years’ time. Labour MEP Aodhán Ó Riordán has said publicly his party should not go into government with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael – adding that they had thrown the Greens under a bus.
Irish electorates are traditionally tough on junior coalition partners.
We spoke to former Independent junior minister Finian McGrath, former Progressive Democrat leader Michael McDowell, former Labour minister Pat Rabbitte and former Green Party (and now Independent) TD Paul Gogarty about the advice they’d give anyone considering entering coalition talks.
McGrath, former Independent TD for Dublin Bay North and junior minister for disability in the 2016-2020 Fine Gael-led government, says potential junior coalition partners need to first decide is whether they really, really want to enter government “because there’s a very high chance that it’s going to end in tears”.
Next on McGrath’s list is to have six or seven clear “big ticket” priorities that can be stitched into a programme for government.
“You need to have clear policies and clear objectives when you into the talks,” McGrath says.
“If they agree to your issues and your programme for government, then you start demanding ministries to back that up so you can enforce the programme for government, and have one or two people at cabinet to keep an eye on things.”
Paul Gogarty, a Green Party TD in the Fianna Fáil-led government of 2007-2011, and re-elected on Sunday evening as an Independent TD for Dublin Mid-West, believes “any party or individual, assuming negotiations give you what you’re looking for, should try to go into government”.
Gogarty says it’s “better to make 10% of the change you’d like than 0%”, adding that there is a “moral imperative” on serious politicians to try and make positive changes when they can.
He admits that going into government as a junior coalition partner may mean you end up “out on your ear in five years time” but argues that if you can stand over something you have achieved it will have been worth it.
Pat Rabbitte, a Labour Party Minister for Energy during the 2011-2016 Fine Gael-led government, believes Bacik’s proposal to talk try and agree a common platform first with other parties of the left is the correct strategy, adding that it will be important for Labour to take its time when making any decisions.
He notes that any potential junior coalition partner will be “confronted with a phalanx of Fianna Fáil [and] Fine Gael deputies that will now number mid 80s, maybe even a little higher” – in other words, not very far off a majority.
As it happens, neither McGrath nor Rabbitte thinks Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael want to go into government with Labour or the Social Democrats, who are on track to be the biggest small parties. Neither sets any store by a flurry of media reports in recent days that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael consider Labour a favoured potential coalition partner.
Independent Senator Michael McDowell, a former leader of the now defunct Progressive Democrats and Minister for Justice for that party in a Fianna Fáil-led government of the early 2000s, is also sceptical that Labour or the Social Democrats are the preferred option.
McDowell adds that he doesn’t think Labour or the Social Democrats will be interested anyway.
“Even though maybe people like Ivana Bacik and Alan Kelly might like to be back in government, their colleagues would know that if Labour go into government, they’ll be the targets of Sinn Féin and the Social Democrats. They’ll end up paying the price for anything unpopular, and they won’t get the credit for anything good,” McDowell says.
“I think the Independents are in the driving seat now. I’d say there’s between six and eight Independents who would do a deal with the government.”
McDowell adds that Independents will be viewed by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael as a “safer” bet for five years, as Labour or the Social Democrats could choose to collapse the government “rather than suffer the fate of the Greens”.
McGrath agrees.
“Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are going to have a fairly substantial number. I think you could easily get six credible Independent TDs who will sit down and hammer out their issues,” he said.
“I think the big beasts like Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will be nervy about the Soc Dems because they might think they’re a little bit wobbly and the first crisis could bring them down.”
Rabbitte too believes the most likely way the big parties will make up the numbers needed is with “a handful of like-minded, compliant Independents”.
“They’ll say other things, like they did during the campaign – but that was only to send out the signal that they wanted rid of the Greens, that wasn’t in praise of the Labour Party or anything else,” Rabbitte says.
Ultimately, forming a government is not the hard part – that comes next, and there are likely to be some frustrating days for any junior coalition partner over the coming months and years.
McGrath says anyone who wants to enter government will need to have resilience to deal with the “landmines” that appear “every few weeks” in government.
Opposition parties will be setting down critical motions, “stuff that will really annoy you – and also that stuff that you might agree with yourself, and yet you’re holding the lines of the government”, McGrath says.
“You have to have a bit of bottle and a bit of courage.”
With reporting by Alex Cunningham in Dublin Mid-West.
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