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Updated 14 April
‘TAKE THREE. AAAND (no) action!’
The 32nd Dáil is trying this afternoon for the third time to elect a Taoiseach. The 158 members of the house will fail to do so again.
That’s because the two biggest parties haven’t been able to form a coalition or, so far, convince each other and independents to support a minority arrangement.
Fianna Fáil’s rebuffal of Fine Gael’s advances to form a “partnership government” means that a minority government led by one or the other seems to be the only show in town.
The horse trading over the past few weeks has seen the two parties trying to win the backing of independents, but no firm commitments have yet been made.
Michaél Martin has now tried to force the issue by telling independents that today will be their last opportunity to vote for him as Taoiseach.
If this is indeed the case, then a Fine Gael-led minority government would be the only remaining option that avoids a second election.
But what exactly would such a government mean in practice?
Let’s take look at that option with an eye on some of the other less likely ones.
*Just a note, this article is focused on exactly how those likely government constructions would work, not how likely they are to happen.
The Fine Gael minority option
In this scenario, Fine Gael would form the government themselves but would be reliant on other TDs, probably including Fianna Fáil, supporting or at least not actively blocking them passing legislation.
The party would hold the ministries itself and be alone at the cabinet table. But because Fine Gael on its own is 30 deputies short of a majority, any bills they proposed could easily be voted down by the rest of the house.
In order for them to govern by minority, they would need the tacit agreement of a sufficient number of opposition deputies not to do this.
This would most likely have to include Fianna Fáil who could decide on a vote-by-vote basis whether or not to support the government or stand in its way. Essentially, to neither be a part of nor actively against Fine Gael running the country.
In order to come to some kind of tacit arrangement, both parties would have to at least be on the same page as to the kinds of issues Fine Gael would tackle in government. In talks this week, they’ve so far been unable to reach that point.
If such agreement was reached, there are potential positives and negatives to such an arrangement.
On the plus side this approach could, in theory, mean increased cooperation among all deputies.
For instance, it would be in the government’s interest to listen to amendments and suggestions from other TDs because there’d be greater chance of the legislation being passed.
There are potential drawbacks too, however. A Fine Gael minority scenario would mean that the government party would be constantly reliant on the opposition keeping out of their way.
Even if Fianna Fáil and others were honest in their approach and always voted based on what they felt was best, they could essentially take down the government when they wanted to.
In that sense, it’s been argued that this scenario could hold a significant long-term benefit for Fianna Fáil who could force an election if they so wished.
If this scenario were to come to pass, the first time we’d see it in action would be Fianna Fáil abstaining from a Dáil vote on electing Enda Kenny as Taoiseach.
The Fianna Fáil minority option
Michael Martin’s party has only six fewer seats than its main opponent, so the above scenario, except with Fianna Fáil at its head, is also a possibility.
The party would need to continue to court the support of independents and smaller parties and also bank on Fine Gael deciding to go into opposition.
A number of independent TDs like the two Healy-Raes and Mattie McGrath have indicated they’d be more likely to support Fianna Fáil, but there’s still a way to go.
The latest is that 14 independent TDs have said they will abstain from today’s vote and have instead asked the two main parties to figure it out. So in that sense, it throws the ball back to the parties.
That Fianna Fáil minority option for Fine Gael is one which some in the party aren’t necessarily opposed to.
Included among them is Leo Varadkar who has said previously that the onus is on the newly swelled Fianna Fáil benches to try to cobble together a government.
The obstacle, of course, is the fact that a Fianna Fáil minority government would be at an even greater risk of being voted down. They’d need an understanding Fine Gael and possibly even a sympathetic Sinn Féin for it to be workable.
The grand coalition option (Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil)
This now appears to be off the table after Fianna Fáil scuppered it in its infancy, but let’s take a look anyway.
Technically, the previous Fine Gael-Labour government was also a grand coalition. The two largest Dáil parties with ostensibly opposing left-right ideologies coming to a consensus to govern together.
The term wasn’t really used though because in Ireland, for good or bad, right-left hasn’t been the main force of friction in our parliament. No, that was the preserve of the schism between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.
That’s the main reason why a coalescence between the two old foes is being given the ‘grand’ moniker.
How would it work?
Well, as with any coalition, that would be decided in negotiations between the two parties. As well as merging their policies to develop an agreed programme for government, they’d also have to agree on how the ministries are doled out.
How many departments would Fine Gael and Fianna Fail each get? Who’d get which department? Who would get the formidable Minister of Finance position?
The larger party usually holds most of the cards in these negotiations, getting the biggest and most departments. But the two parties are so close in terms of seats that this wouldn’t be so clear cut this time around.
There were suggestions when Fine Gael’s offer was made that they would split cabinet seats equally and even have a rotating Taoiseach, with Enda Kenny and Michael Martin each holding the position for an agreed period.
Whatever about the likelihood of those variables, once it was agreed the coalition would operate much like those that have gone before it.
- A previous version of this article was published on 10 March.
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This is how the Zombie Apocalypse starts.
No the park is closed, so the animals and insects will just stay in the park, won’t they
Lol M, this is the America F##K YEAH generation we’re talking about.
Bombers loaded with Napalm are being flown in as we speak.
You don’t f##k with America.
Cant wait, would bw some craic. I wonder will they be fast like the ones in 28days later or slow like the ones in dawn of the dead.
It is to be hoped so.
The War on Squirrels begins. They’re probably trained by Al Qaieda or Iran or North Korea or some commies..
The CIA are looking for WMDs
american zombies…they’ll be SLOW!
Phew! Flying squirrels with the AIDS would’ve been much more Hollywood – or is that the summer 2014 blockbuster sheeple worrier?
So long as they can read the signs telling them it’s closed…
Plague is the great leveller ; it was instrumental in changing Europe from a feudal system where the “lords” owned the people to one where the workers earned the right to ear money for labour !
And there’s only one cure ! The Bishop of Winchester knew that one!
Squirrels and fleas?? This article had me scratching my nuts after.
Another strategy to keep the American population scared. Why? Because a scared population is a controllable population.
Yes, an easily treatable illness will realy scare the bejesus out of them.
‘LA park evacuated after DEADLY plague virus detected in squirrel’
Sounds like a pretty scary headline to me regardless of the fact it’s easy to treat…
Niall, as the squirrel would say…you’re nuts…
Coming from a man who can hear squirrels talking?!
Niall…As the squirrel WOULD say…( if it could talk)…
Don’t tell me you think that I can hear squirrels talking??? This is much more serious than I thought. You’re not just nuts, you’re nut eile….lol
Thank god it was a squirrel and not a beaver – I like beavers !
Then you are one of the few on journal.ie. Very few beaver lovers on here hence the high quantity of bitchy comments on a daily basis.
Elks are the enemy of the beaver an the wolf is the enemy of the elk.
No wolf ; No beaver!
Emmet “Stagg” is an elk for example !
That’d be great excuse to get off work, “Sorry, I can’t come.in today because I have the plague.”
Wonna ask what happened to the squirrel but know I won’t like the answer
Treated for fleas…
Somebody phone Dustin Hoffman!!
Wait for it, the Americans will blame the Taliban or some other terrorists organisation. Some marine will shoot the squirrel and will be thanked for giving the citizens “their freedom”.
Dope
A tenner says they won’t… ;-)
I hope that the Smithwick’s squirrel has got the all clear ?
Surly just brushing his teeth and flossing well fix that problem in a jiffy?
Give him some boiled 7up and he’ll be grand
And some disprin. Sorted.
Go squirrels!!
Ah nuts
Useless story. One squirrel tested positive for a something they routinely look for? That’s someone doing their job not an outbreak. Ireland had three cases of yersiniosis last year (HSPC.ie) and shure we’re grannnndddd. #plaugeproof
The Great Barrier Reef last week ( bombed) this week the evil squirrel. What next, butterflies carrying the Plague virus?
Slight hint of paranoia I suspect.
Dope 2.0
Well done rotund, a valuable contribution from an obvious troll. ;)
Still smarting from being called a dope for your useless attempt at wit regarding marines and americans in general? Jog on son…
After reading your comment, the obvious lack of grammar proves to me that intellectually you are so far beneath me that I will not be responding to you.
Ha. Good one. Listen im sorry that your ‘hilarious’ quip about americans and marines wasnt as funny as you thought it was. Better luck next time. Im off to get grinds now ;)
Saucers of milk for the pair of you.
But but but Gary. By typing that, you DID respond.
I was under the impression that James Reilly got rid of the plague!!
God’s wrath? Gay marriage! Where’s Pat Robertson when an opportunity like this arises?
That’s how Elvis died, he ate a plague ridden squirrel
How does a bacteria which hasn’t reappeared in over 600years in Europe suddenly appear in the US? I’m probably wrong in this, any experts out there?
Its always been around it never went away.
It isn’t know if the black death was the bubonic plague or not, some info here if you’re interested:
http://www.stuffyoushouldknow.com/blog/the-black-death-is-now-likely-extinct-perhaps/
Just out of interest: How did they know the squirrel had the plague in the first place? Was it a random check or what?
Better set up a “Squirrel Patrol”, course that could bring a “Squirrel Tax”…..
Won’t someone think of the children!!
I wonder will the Yankees blame Iran or some other country in the the east for this.
Methinks another invasion I’d the answer.
Karl. A rather stupid comment. Plague carrying fleas can be found all around the world. The only reason there is not serious outbreaks is that modern antibiotics are quite capable of stopping the infection.
If Barack Obama had a squirrel it would look like Trayvon.
Someone has read Dan Browns inferno and got a bit excited!
have your say