REJOICE. WE HAVE a new government! And it only took over two months, endless meetings and waffle, and enough false starts to give Usain Bolt nightmares.
But we finally got there. Enda Kenny is the first Fine Gael leader to be re-elected as Taoiseach. There’s a new cabinet in place and none of this caretaker administration malarkey. The only way is up from here, right?
Well, no, frankly. The new government is going to have to shake off the elation of being in power quick smart because there are enough political problems floating around Ireland at present to bring the whole shebang to its knees before you can say ‘water charges protest’. Here’s a selection:
Irish Water
Say a prayer for poor old Simon Coveney. One of the most capable of all Enda Kenny’s lieutenants, he was instrumental in the negotiations that brought the new government to pass. His reward? A great big national problem that just won’t go away, in the guise of the much-maligned water utility.
Key to the ‘confidence and supply’ arrangement between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael going forward is the establishment of a new commission to examine Ireland’s water infrastructure and decide what happens next. That means that water charges are set to be suspended for at least nine months – and a whole barrage of people who actually paid them will in all likelihood be not one bit impressed at the suggestion that the payments they have made are non-refundable.
Then there is the issue of the national water situation itself. For all its faults, particularly in how it was set up and a less-than-clever approach to customer service, Irish Water was established to deal with the serious issue of the country’s antiquated water supply. That problem hasn’t gone away.
Should the new commission come up with findings that are not to Fianna Fáil’s tastes, you get the feeling the government will be on a very shaky footing indeed. Still at least that’s all that Coveney has to worry about. It’s not like he’s also been dumped with…
Housing
Yes, as the new Minister for Housing, Planning and Local Government (one of the three parts that the old Department of Environment has been split into), Coveney gets another poisoned chalice in the national housing situation. And it isn’t pretty.
One of the biggest brickbats that the opposition were able to beat the last government with was their performance on housing and homelessness. Now homeless numbers are spiralling at a rate of knots, while house prices are barrelling upwards all around the country after reaching something of a plateau of unaffordability in Dublin. Meanwhile, the lack of supply of social housing has led to initiatives like the modular housing builds being seen in certain areas of Dublin.
It’s not a nice situation to have to deal with, but it is one which requires effective action and, probably, some fresh ideas if the new government isn’t to founder. Over to you Simon.
Independently speaking
Lordy if this new Dáil isn’t full of independents. They’re everywhere, and quite a few of them have snagged plum ministerial appointments to boot. The problem is, working within government is a deal different from the cosy playing to the gallery which many independents are so fond of indulging in.
However, if the madness of last Friday (when the Dáil was forced to wait for the arrival of the Independent Alliance (IA) from last minute negotiations before holding a vote to elect a Taoiseach) is anything to go by, keeping the various independents in line may be easier said than done.
Michael Fitzmaurice eventually abstained from that vote, saying he didn’t want to prevent the formation of a government because of his own concerns over access to bogs in his constituency. If his stable-mates in the IA begin to feel dissatisfied with their own lot then the government could be finished before it gets started.
Strike Strike Strike
One of the most high-profile of those independents is of course Shane Ross, the new minister for transport. In breaking a media silence over the makeup of the new cabinet by announcing he’d landed the transport portfolio, Ross possibly gave an indication of how he plans to conduct himself in government. By behaving as and how he wishes in other words.
Well, he has immediately landed in the middle of a strike situation that has captivated the nation in the guise of the Luas industrial action. It’s an impasse that no amount of threats on either side have managed to break. Bringing it to a conclusion would be quite the feather in Ross’ cap. He has form here too – he’s been plenty critical of the likes of CIE in the past.
He would want to do so quickly however, because one of the sole substantive results of the ongoing Luas action is that other unions and professions are starting to make pay-related noises also. Bus and rail strikes don’t feel like they’re a million miles off.
And it’s not just transport. Justice and education ministers Frances Fitzgerald and Richard Bruton could have their work cut out with possible garda and teachers’ strikes in the near future. Not to mention…
Health problems
Fine Gael wunderkind Simon Harris has come a long way since being elected to Dáil Éireann in 2011. Previously serving as a super junior minister in the Department of Finance, he now joins the top table by taking over the health ministry from Leo Varadkar, who moves to social protection. And he’s not even 30.
Unfortunately, health may be the most problematic department of them all. Between under-funding, the trolley crisis, the ongoing furore over the location of the new children’s hospital at St James’s in central Dublin, nurses threatening industrial action, controversy over ambulance first-response times, and the ongoing fallout over the re-allocation of €12 million in mental health funding from the last budget, the poor man has his work cut out.
And then there’s the news today that the new government is set to dismantle the HSE and replace it with a new health commission – something Fianna Fáil has already said that it opposes.
None of these situations is going away. Regardless of how talented the minister, health seems to be an area where one step up is followed by two steps back in recent times. Can Harris buck the trend?
Should they stay or should they go?
There’s a big vote coming up in Britain next month on the 23 June. Yes, after what seems like endless discussion and speculation, the UK is finally set to decide on whether or not to Brexit or Bremain (as Fine Gael MEP Seán Kelly would have us say).
The Brexit has been on the agenda for a long time here, but the true reality of what it would mean for Ireland has probably not fully hit home as yet. That’s something the government and Michael Noonan as Minister for Finance are going to have to get to grips with because a return to border controls and an enormous aftershock hitting our relationship with our biggest trading partner is just a Yes vote away.
What about the Eighth?
As it became clear that it was facing into an almost total drubbing at the polls in the last election, Labour sought solace in pushing its progressive policies - chief among those being a call for a referendum on the repeal of the eighth amendment to the constitution – the clause which guarantees the right to life of an unborn child.
Labour may have been soundly walloped in the election, but the national clamour for a referendum is very present. It’s hard to imagine this government staying the course without holding such a referendum, not least because one of the new independents in government, children’s minister Katherine Zappone, has said in the past she would not sign up to any programme for government that didn’t include an allowance for such a referendum.
You would imagine that fast-tracking such a referendum would have to be a priority if the government is to last any length of time. Of course, once you’ve done that, the fallout from the referendum result has to be dealt with. Who’d be a politician eh?
How long has Enda got?
Finally, the elephant in the room. After making what could politely be described as a hames of its election campaign, to the extent that it is only barely still the largest party in Dáil Éireann, Fine Gael’s leader is still on shaky ground. He has said in the past that he will not see out his second term, but if Enda goes who takes his place?
The obvious choices are Leo Varadkar (who seems to have taken something of a scolding in being given the social protection portfolio after badmouthing Fianna Fáil during the two parties’ protracted negotiations two weeks ago) and Simon Coveney. But can the government handle a switch of driver mid-race?
The last time that happened Brian Cowen took over from Bertie Ahern in May 2008. And we know how that ended up. As the song goes: “There may be trouble ahead…”
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