IT’S LOOKING LIKE it could be a very good election indeed for brothers Michael and Danny Healy-Rae in Kerry.
The brothers, both independents, are set to take both seats they’re aiming for in the election on 26 February according to a new Ipsos/MRBI poll conducted on behalf of TG4.
Taking two of the five seats available in the new Kerry constituency would heap pressure on the Healy-Raes’ opponents from the established parties.
In order to secure both seats an effective vote-management strategy would need to be employed.
Currently Michael Healy-Rae is polling at 33% of the vote in the constituency, more than twice the quota required to secure his seat, with his brother claiming 4%.
The current standings in the field according to the new poll are as follows:
Michael Healy-Rae (Ind) 33%
Jimmy Deenihan (FG) 13%
Brendan Griffin (FG) 13%
John Brassill (FF) 11%
Arthur Spring (Lab) 8%
Martin Ferris (SF) 7%
Norma Moriarty (FF) 6%
Danny Healy-Rae (Ind) 4%
Michael Fitzgerald (Green) 2%
Grace O’Donnell (FG) 1%
Michael O’Gorman (Non Party) 1%
Donal Corcoran (Renua) 1%
For both Healy-Raes to ascend to the 32nd Dáil Danny would have to benefit from a great number of first-preference votes coming from his brother.
The two have been encouraging voters in east Kerry to vote for Danny first. Elder brother Danny’s candidacy was only announced last Thursday.
The TG4 poll seems to bear out the logic of that choice.
Of most surprise in the poll is probably the fact that Sinn Féin’s Martin Ferris is in considerable danger of losing his own seat, a situation that is in some contrast to the generally rising fortunes of his party across the country.
Ferris has been an ever-present in Leinster House since the 2002 election.
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