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IRISH BUSINESS LEADERS are calling for stability in a time of upheaval as the country’s key trading partner plots its exit from the EU.
While currency and share markets were in a state of flux this morning following the UK’s Brexit vote, the full economic impact for the Republic could take years to emerge.
In a briefing note, Davy chief economist Conall Mac Coille said the UK decision probably wouldn’t be enough to push Ireland into recession, but it could drive the Republic’s GDP down as much as 2% this year and the next.
The crashing value of the pound is going to be one of the biggest factors as that new low price takes its toll on exporters.
“At this stage, quantifying the negative shock on consumer and business confidence is impossible,” Mac Coille said.
“However, Irish households and companies are still saving, rapidly paying down debt. So (they) are unlikely to cut back on spending and increase their savings from already high rates. That said, uncertainty could delay the fledgling recovery in spending by domestic companies and households.”
The ESRI previously predicted trade between Ireland and the UK could drop 20% in the case of a Brexit vote, although there won’t be any major changes to existing arrangements until the end of the two-year period for an EU exit set out under the Lisbon Treaty.
However there have been dissenting voices that argue an EU without the UK will present an opportunity for the Republic as the only English-speaking nation in the group.
Economist Constantin Gurdgiev had this verdict on Ireland’s prosperity in the EU over the longer term:
Time for pragmatism
Ibec CEO Danny McCoy said Ireland “will be impacted more than other countries by the UK’s decision to leave”.
“It is important that acrimony quickly gives way to pragmatism and that a speedy, mutually beneficial arrangement between the EU and UK is reached,” he said.
“Whatever the outcome … the vote will fundamentally change our relationship with our nearest neighbour and most important trading partner.”
Meanwhile the head of the Irish arm of one of the world’s largest companies said that Ireland “should make every effort to play its role in the continued evolution of the EU”.
PwC managing partner Feargal O’Rourke said that the country should “be at the EU negotiating table engaging in the discussions to ensure the potential outcomes of any negotiations are in the best interests of Ireland, our people and our economy.”
Global share markets have also been suffering this morning with Ireland far from spared from the carnage.
Companies particularly susceptible to currency fluctuations and the UK market were the hardest hit, with Bank of Ireland shares down more than 40% at one stage.
Meanwhile, tourism is one of the indigenous industries most exposed to UK customers and this morning the Irish Hotels Federation warned there was a risk of economic uncertainty and weaker sterling could have an impact on the country’s largest source of visitors.
Major implications
Food and drink producers are also among those with the most to lose from a Brexit and Irish Farmers’ Association president Joe Healy said minimising uncertainty and setting out a clear strategy for Ireland was key.
“The outcome of the UK vote has major implications for Irish agriculture and the agri-food sector,” he said.
“The government must give a clear signal that the issues of major importance to this sector, our trading relationship with the UK and Northern Ireland and the EU budget, will be central to the EU-UK negotiations.”
The British Irish Chamber of Commerce said it would be campaigning for the continuation of the long-standing common travel area between Britain and Ireland as well as a quick trade deal between the UK and EU.
Deloitte’s Brendan Jennings said there were positives to be had from a Brexit for some sectors, particularly the financial industry.
“We know that many financial services organisations in the UK have already identified an overdependence on the UK as a centre, and will be looking at the locations of their operations in that context,” he said.
“Ireland is a flexible, competitive and highly skilled economy and an attractive place to do business – something that can play to our advantage as internationally mobile business considers its options in the post-Brexit world.”
Written by Peter Bodkin and posted on Fora.ie
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I’m not worried. If anyone seriously believes that German businesses are going to allow themselves be hampered by a Brexit they are delusional. Germany exported over 1 million cars to the UK last year alone. Money talks. New EU wide votes and legislation will be in place before the UK makes any formal exit. They’ll hang Merkel out to dry in no time if she opposes any trading deals with the UK.
I think this move by the UK was exactly what Europe needed in many ways. I’m very happy today.
agree undie…nothing stops business!After all the scaremongering…the same mouthpieces are all over the media at the moment saying now that”nothing will change”…there’s a surprise
I ordered a grands worth of stuff from the UK about 2 weeks ago. The company is new and a reseller of a German product. I emailed them 2 or 3 times and heard nothing back in the last few weeks. I rang them about a week ago and he said he’d out the order through “tomorrow”. I was getting pissed off waiting as I was checking my balance constantly to see if it came out or not. Last night they processed it! I wonder why? They were watching the exchange rate I’d say.
cents matter in business….call it business cents:)
Still, I’m going on holidays next week and it’s camping gear. cutting it close the fcuker.
And another plus for us is …. Companies wanting a gateway to Europe won’t be able to go through Britain anymore they’ll come through….”Boom “you got it … Give yourself a pat on the back….
A grand’s worth of camping gear? Are you bringing a portable 5* hotel room??
Well, perhaps glamping would be more accurate. I’m too old for tents and can;t get enough time off work to go foreign (a full week off) so I figured I’d take the kids around Ireland instead for a few days a week between now and September instead as I have Monday’s and Tuesdays off.
Nice. Enjoy. Hope ya get good weather for it
you’d get a holiday home in Kerry for about 400 euros ATM?
Disgraceful you have comments on isis recruiter closed. Journal up to its usual censoring. Just be done with it and have every article a hilarious Irish mammy one
About time tge courts found the balls to deal with these towelheads
Hush-hush, we can’t say anything bad about the religion of peace and how tolerant they are.
(However the SJWs are allowed to say whatever they want about Donald)
You lads are obviously the reason. You take it to another forum and straight away “towelheads” is trotted out. Not exactly contributing to sensible discussion, are we?
So much for freedom of speech, eh?
Freedom of ignorance and hatred is a different thing entirely. We’ve all heard the ingenious “religion of peace” gag now, Will. I doubt we’re missing out on much
Probably the first Isis article relevant to Ireland and you agree with shutting down comments then in case there are some ingorant contributions? Shame on you
I never said i agreed with it… i just said we obviously have a couple of examples of the perceived risk involved, which probably led to the decision to close the comments, right here.
Like the old saying goes: “See, this is why we can’t have nice things”
Seriously, like… I’m personally embarrassed by that ‘towelheads’ “quip”
@Joe, the followers Islam itself call it “The Religion of Peace”. However, in practice it is anything but.
If a terrorist attack occurs and it was done by a White Supremacist. Then the media would be all over racism and White-Power movements, having everybody praising each other for their comments against them.
However, when it’s an Islamic attack. Then we’re not allowed to say anything for fear of offense.
When Donald Trump has an assassination attempt made against him, then everyone is free to joke about it.
Or if someone makes a silly joke against him, say throwing swastika gold balls. He’s called a hero.
Now imagine if the exact same thing happened to Hillary or Obama? Would people be making jokes or would there be public outrage?
Ah here… i’m not even gonna bother. Enjoy your crusade. Let me know when you win back control of the world and all the different coloured people are back where you say they should be.
If you think anyone has been pu$$yfooting around Muslim involvement in anything, then you’ve a warped sense of perception.
The definition of the word “terrorism” is now completely linked to Muslim involvement across all media platforms.
Typical headline: “Explosions/Gunshots in [AreaX]. Terrorism suspected”
It’s only terrorism if there was a Muslim involved. Otherwise it’s just a crime or a symptom of mental illness.
“It’s only terrorism if there was a Muslim involved” —Omar Mateen, the Orlando shooter.
-Killed over 50 people and injured another 50 more.
-Was a registered Democrat.
-Was also A Hillary Clinton support.
Media: “Oh no, this wasn’t the result of ‘radical Islam’. He was just a madman and who was himself a suppressed in the closet homosexual”.
Couple of things… was that first line supposed to be a quote attributed to that hate-filled pr!ck?
Also… Is any of that supposed to disprove my point??
Just because one psycho since had a host of other problems, while he also happened to be Muslim, you think now it’s ok to generalise like that? He was obviously a self-loathing gay guy who turned his self-hatred against other gay guys. What’s your point though?
“He’s Muslim, innit”
@Joe
Joe I was quoting you……..yourself “It’s only terrorism if there was a Muslim involved. Otherwise it’s just a crime or a symptom of mental illness.” This was what you typed.
Then I pointed out that, Omar Mateen, who he himself was a Muslim and also openly called the police to pledge allegiance to ISIS.
Yet…………the media is reluctant to call his attack on Orlando a “radical Islam” attack. Even when he himself was a Muslim and openly supported ISIS and the laws of the Qur’an forbid homosexual acts which is punishable by execution.
Yet, the media like the Journal is reluctant to address the issue of radical Islam for fear of offense. So it censors comments on any articles.
Will… i know what you were trying to do… what you actually did was attribute what I said, to you, to someone else and you pointed out nothing new. All of that stuff has been reported in the media. Every bit of it. Maybe they’re not pigeonholing it the way you want them to because there was also the fact that it was clearly more about a person’s gripe with an apsect of themselves they were ashamed of.
I say this all to you in the name of the most high Jah Rastafari Christ.
I don’t really. But now people can say that i did and pigeonhole me too.
Libtard.
Because our financial leaders and bankers care so much for us and never get it wrong we should pay attention to them?
If you want a pension or savings left when you retire or insurance, yes you should pay attention to them.
Sorry but they have already screwed me on those two…
As long as apple get to avoid paying the proper corporate tax rate i think we will all be happy:)
Can we now have a referendum on europe? I think we should get out before it falls down
We have business leaders??
On a side note, the amount of political and economic experts on Facebook today is hilarious.
use the opportunity to learn then:)
I’m too busy working at being a full time mad b@st@rd!
im only part time!
Noonans delighted, he can now keep austerity and the USC in place. Farmers can stick up their prices to compensate for loss of British markets. And still deal with them anyway lol
Brian Killoran, CEO of the Immigrant Coucil of Ireland on Twitter:
“Lessons for all, including Ireland. The far right in Europe are jubilant. Its a boon to those who seek to sow division and reap its benifits”.
“Thinking of our colleagues in civil society in Northern Ireland who rely so heavily on EU funding for their work. Future is bleak.”
Looks like the immigration industry will have to go into liquidation.
Feels good, man.
Two years. EU won’t allow exit to be dragged out as uncertainty breeds a business freeze. The UK trade with the EU is 40%, it’s less than 20 in reverse. Ireland is the exception but they need our market access and now our EU access for financial services.
Don’t get hung up on the Article 50 two year timetable. Article 50 can only be triggered by the exiting member state and to do so would be madness. The U.K. Will negotiate the terms of exit and the basis of an ongoing trading relationship with the remaining 27 before they give notice under Article 50. Could take years.
Irelands business leaders?,best laugh i had all day
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