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LAST WEEK, IBEC chief executive Danny McCoy warned that the island of Ireland needs to be ready to have a population of 10 million by 2050.
He argued that investment on a massive scale is needed on that basis.
But how realistic is the prediction – and, if it happens, could we deal with it?
Density
CSO projections estimate that the population in the Republic could hit around 6.7 million by 2046, so a 10 million figure is possible, but not probable. Even that projection is in a scenario where Ireland’s fertility rate is high.
But let’s assume that huge swathes of the diaspora come home, there is low migration and fertility goes up slightly and, by New Year’s Eve 2049, the 10 millionth resident of the country is born.
In terms of density, Ireland could easily deal with the extra bodies. Sure, there’s tons of room:
A population growth from 4.6 million to 10 million would bring Ireland’s population density from 65.3 per square kilometre to 142 per square kilometre. That would make the country more dense than China, but still only the 83rd most dense country in the world.
The problem, as the next map shows, is that Irish people and people arriving in Ireland don’t spread out evenly. They spread out like this:
Dublin and its metropolitan area currently account for around 39% of Ireland’s population, not to mention those in a commuter belt that is getting further and further from the capital.
If Ireland’s population hit 10 million, that would mean 3.9 million people living in and around Dublin unless building and settling habits shift radically.
That is not to mention that Dublin’s low-rise suburbs are almost at saturation point when it comes to housing anyway. Blanchardstown, for example, has 105,000 residents and not a whole lot more green space to build on.
Dig up, stupid
One solution, says head of the School of Spatial Planning at DIT, Henk van der Kamp, is to fill in the gaps of what’s there and be ready to go up.
He says that Ireland could sustain such a rise in population, but planning needs to start soon.
“Planning is about being prepared. You always need to plan for a much higher population that is actually envisaged.
“We can be prepared in two ways. One, we can get the infrastructure in place, but we also need to decide what you are doing and how.”
He says that throwing an extra couple of million people into Dublin probably wouldn’t be very comfortable, but says that the idea of a “network city”, with dense urban centres from Dublin to Swords to Dundalk to Belfast, could work.
“A city of 3 million people isn’t a great idea, but a network city could do it. It would be a much bigger footprint, but it wouldn’t be a sprawl model. You could go away from the current city and take another node like Swords and build.
“If you have good transport connections, it can be done.”
He says that in places like Adamstown and Newbridge in particular, development has only happened on one side of the railway lines, contrary to best practice.
The market, he argues, cannot be allowed dictate long-term planning.
“It has to be done in a managed way. You’re talking about significant growth in population. There’s a lot of land around the railway lines that can be made denser.
“But you can’t let the market dictate planning.”
Charleville
Building along a corridor requires planning and maybe a little bit of thinking outside the box.
The example van der Kamp uses is Charleville in Cork. Situated between Cork and Limerick cities, it is on the Dublin rail line and has vast space around its traditional town centre.
“If you think of Charleville. It is important in its strategic location. It’s a small town, with a lot of land. You could plan to put an American company there and build a new town there. It would be part of a corridor with Cork and Limerick and have regular rail links to Dublin.
“It takes a brave man to say “I’m putting 1 million people in Charleville, but if an American company wanted to build there, the IDA could attract them and start building.”
So, could we cope with 10 million people in 35 years?
“It can be done. There is plenty of time to buy the land and build the infrastructure. But it has to start now”.
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This country baffles me sometimes… constantly people moaning about a lack of transport and then something really positive like post 1am Luas gets proposed and people are like “nah I’ll walk home thanks” and other comments drowned in negativity. Blame the government all you want folks, a lot of our lack of progress is due to this “no thanks, not in my backyard” generation ruining it for the rest of us.
@The CFC Standard: red line at 8pm on a Friday is pretty rough, imagine 1am? They need to provide proper security to run it at this time.
@The CFC Standard: agreed – there’s also the reality that far too many of our wonderful people behaviour Friday and Saturday nights needs to be called out – it’s little wonder drivers would choose to work 7am until 7pm rather than tolerate the drunken abusive and often outright dangerous behaviour of so many people during the wee hours – so many comments complain about the lack of drivers on the road after midnight and wouldn’t take that risk for love or money and love to point the blame at everyone else in society – seems to be so much hypocrisy in ireland these days
@Fephie Stitz: I totally agree. I wouldn’t feel safe. It’s like that during the day too.
Good news but there should be security on every Luas, especially late nights.
That sounds lovely & safe
Not a hope. Ill walk home thanks
@John Doyle: So, if you lived in say; Saggart, you’d walk the 30km (4hrs) from the city centre home at 1am. Wow, the hyperbole is strong with you.
@Alan Wright: off ye pop I’ll jump on the luas with the 4 big stt security lads on board
@Darren Callaghan: What? I’m advocating for people to take the luas, it was the other guy that wants to walk.
@John Doyle: you could hitch a ride in an ambulance after you’ve been mugged by a couple of scrotes out on bail?!
Brilliant news hopefully it will be 24 hrs when the demand is there
They’ll do both and then drop back to the gteen line only due to antisocial issues.
They could investigate why only 29% of drivers are working at busy periods. Used to be where they would only work at those times. Sounds like there are enough taxis but they don’t like working when someone is going to get sick or abuse them or fight them or flee. Come on Eamonn
@Simon: or maybe taxis are become less of a cash business and drivers aren’t thinking it’s worth it anymore. Accepting card and using apps like freenow, the taxi driver pays a % of the fare to use that service. Cash is king. And the king is dead.
@Ciaran: well said
@Ciaran: in a post-covid society cash is becoming rare or it will be. Everything is becoming digital and for the better
Could we not allow non taxi licenced Uber drivers to operate Thursday to Sunday 10pm to 3am only? They could be Garda vetted and registered with the national transport authority.
Can’t believe Ryan advocating using public transport when he’s single handedly turned the city into a velodrome ……on yet bike Ryan…..Luas drivers already start earlier and finish later than every other public transport provider in the country now you just want them finishing later whilst your green mates work from home and cycle into the city on a Saturday for some bobble tea and some vegan ice cream…..increasing the trams to later operations will only increase anti social activity. The only way it works is if we have Transport Policing …..but you’d rather focus on cycle lanes
Folks, don’t forget to pack your stab vest and crash helmet in your backpack for these after hours Luas journeys home after those extra late nights out in our fair city. Good luck!!
Can we get rid of closing time constraints, and add more night links and 24 hr luas (restricted time table depending on demand) like any sensible European country
If you are getting I get to have luas at 1-1.30am, then you also need then at 4-5am for those of us who start work early
Great. I don’t live in Dublin, but this seems like an eminently sensible plan.
12% hike in taxi fares, ffs… Nobody else in the state getting half that percentage of a rise…. Incredible
Brilliant news … provided the line doesn’t run right outside your bedroom window ,,.?
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