Live BlogLAST UPDATE | 25 mins ago
THE BALLOTS HAVE all been cast in the 2024 general election.
Sorting of votes commenced at 9am in centres around the country to determine who will – and won’t – be making it into the next Dáil.
Last night’s exit poll puts Sinn Féin on 21.1%, Fine Gael on 21% and Fianna Fáil on 19.5% (with a margin of error of plus or minus 1.4%).
The Journal will have reporters bringing you live updates throughout the day from multiple count centres at various locations around the country.
Buckle in.
With updates by Lauren Boland (now) and Órla Ryan (earlier)
Afternoon! Lauren Boland here.
If you’re just joining us now, here’s the state of play:
*One seat has technically been filled – the Ceann Comhaire, who is not allowed to engage in politics, is automatically re-elected. That’s Fianna Fáil’s Seán Ó Fearghaíl this time around.
Thanks for staying with us so far today, I’m now going to hand you over to my colleague Lauren Boland.
Another update from Wicklow…
🗳️ Next hour or so will be critical for the Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly. At 6.4% with over 40% of boxes tallied the seat may be slipping away.
— Ireland Votes (@Ireland_Votes) November 30, 2024
Speaking to our political editor Christina Finn in Wicklow, Sinn Féin’s John Brady said a trend is “starting to emerge” as boxes continue to be opened in the constituency.
He said SF has done “extremely well” in Wicklow and nationally, based on the exit poll and early tallies.
Had a quick chat with Sinn Féin’s John Brady on how the day is shaping up. pic.twitter.com/9UJ9GW2SpZ
— Christina Finn (@christinafinn8) November 30, 2024
Outgoing People Before Profit TD Bríd Smith (Dublin South-Central) said there is an alternative left alliance to Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, but other left parties had “failed to pull that together”.
Speaking to RTÉ News, Smith said: “You had Mary Lou McDonald calling for ‘vote left, transfer left’ in the last two days of the campaign, you had the Social Democrats’ Gary Gannon saying something similar and Joan Collins saying something similar in the last week.
“We have been saying this for months and months, we wrote to all the left parties and all the left independents and asked them to do a ‘vote left, transfer left’ pact and got no responses – and the failure of the left is much to their shame.”
Smith added she is “delighted” to see PBP’s Hazel De Nortúin tallying at around 12% in Dublin South-Central.
Early tallies in Cork South Central place Tánaiste Micheál Martin out in front (but all boxes are yet to be opened):
More than 60% of boxes have been tallied in Cork North Central.
Here’s the latest tally:
Unsurprisingly, the Healy-Rae brothers are polling well in Kerry.
With 69 of 260 boxes opened, Michael is on 23% of first preference votes while Danny is on 14.5%.
Pa Daly of Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil’s Norma Foley are both on 13%.
As it stands, the four incumbent TDs are likely to be re-elected.
Fianna Fáil in the hunt for a second seat in Kerry afterall at the expense of Fine Gael - with Michael Cahill and Billy O’Shea running neck and neck on 10%
— Barry Lenihan (@BarryLenihan) November 30, 2024
With 25% boxes tallied favouring rural areas in North Kerry but transfers likely to favour Cahill
4 incumbents hold
And speaking of lost things, our colleague Nicky Ryan is also missing some deeply sentimental personal items.
Brought several loving but venomous pet snakes with me while voting yesterday, just realised I haven't seen them since! Can the count centre staff PLEASE keep an eye out for them in the ballot boxes
— Nicky Ryan (@NickyRyan_) November 30, 2024
Speaking of Donegal, another wedding ring has been found in a ballot box (the other ring was found in Mullingar earlier).
We found a wedding ring among the ballots in Donegal. 🗳💍😆 More details on https://t.co/MViqsbauLm #GE24 pic.twitter.com/zy7u9ZHbDC
— Mark Tighe (@MarkLTighe) November 30, 2024
Voting is not without its risks, kids.
My colleague Mairead Maguire has an update on Donegal, another constituency worth watching as counting continues.
She writes:
Donegal is a county with a dispersed electorate, and at this point fewer than 50 of the 267 boxes have been opened so I will preface this analysis with a massive health warning!
With that being said, this is what we know about the five-seat constituency so far. Tallies say:
Sitting Sinn Féin TDs Pearse Doherty and Pádraig Mac Lochlainn are pretty much guaranteed to keep their seats.
Fianna Fáil will likely win at least one seat. This could be the 76-year-old Pat ‘The Cope’ Gallagher, who is running after a short break from politics. Incumbent TD Charlie McConalogue, who served as Agriculture Minister, could be in trouble, or he could win a second seat for FF.
Still, the last two seats are very much up for grabs. The 100% Redress (Mica) Party candidate Charles Ward is doing well in early tallies. Meanwhile, independent Thomas Pringle, a mainstay of the constituency, can’t be too confident just yet. It really is too early to tell.
There’s a chance that Sinn Féin’s third candidate, Noel Jordan, could also win a seat.
It’s not looking good for either of the two Fine Gael candidates – but with only 20% of boxes open and an uneven geographical spread, it’s all to play for.
Counting is in full swing in Limerick city – despite concerns about the fact the names of some candidates were not listed in alphabetical order (as required by legislation).
And we’re off —counting of votes has started 4 seater Limerick City constituency alphabetical error on the ballot paper acknowledged but Returning officer satisfied that count proceed @rtenews pic.twitter.com/t5FlZsbfeC
— RTÉ Limerick City (@RTElimerickcity) November 30, 2024
Electoral law states that candidates must be listed on the ballot paper in alphabetical order, however Sinn Féin’s Maurice Quinlivan and Dean Quinn (The Irish People party) were incorrectly placed ahead of Willie O’Dea (FF) and Elisa O’Donovan (Social Democrats), on some ballot papers.
98% boxes tallied #dubc #GeneralElection24 #GE24 pic.twitter.com/MLL5zi3s2n
— RTÉ Dublin Central (@RTEdubCENTRAL) November 30, 2024
Gerry ‘The Monk’ Hutch is performing well in Dublin Central, he’s currently in fourth place (in the four-seater), based on an early tally:
Hutch, a notorious gangland figure, has divided people in the constituency.
Another update from Christina Finn, our political editor, in Wicklow:
There’s a heavy media presence here – Sky News, RTÉ, Virgin Media and many well known reporters are all here to watch how the Wicklow constituency plays out.
Speaking to a few tally people – both FF and FG – it’s acknowledged that sitting minister Stephen Donnelly could be in bother. Simon Harris, as to be expected, is coming out on top so far. As one FF person said, transfers between FG and FF will matter hugely for Donnelly.
From what I’ve seen, many people have given Harris their number 1 and Donnelly their number 2 vote.
Predictions from a few people here: Harris, Soc Dems’ Jennifer Whitmore and Sinn Fein’s John Brady should each safely take a seat, but Donnelly will be in a battle for the last seat.
It’ll be interesting to see how many of Harris’ transfers go to running mate Edward Timmons or independent Shay Cullen.
— Brian O'Connell (@oconnellbrian) November 30, 2024
Excellent t-shirt choice by a worker at the Nemo Rangers count centre in Cork.
In a time-honoured election tradition, someone lost their wedding ring in a ballot box.
Who had their money on Mullingar?
We have a wedding ring! One of the counters Peter Creamer has found a wedding ring in a box from Gael Scoil an Choilin in Mullingar. #GE24 pic.twitter.com/blS6D2bfnE
— RTÉ Longford-Westmeath (@RTElongfordWMH) November 30, 2024
I’m here in the Greystones where the Wicklow tallies are underway. It’s gone from a five seater to four, so a dogfight here.
— Christina Finn (@christinafinn8) November 30, 2024
Tallies are weighted towards the west of the county but Harris performing well, as is Soc Dems Jennifer Whitmore.
All eyes on Donnelly here. pic.twitter.com/lcpWkYz9zI
Our political editor Christina Finn is in Greystones, where counting has begun in the Wicklow constituency.
This is, of course, Taoiseach Simon Harris’ constituency. He is expected to retain his seat, but a question mark hangs over the seat of Health Minister Stephen Donnelly (Fianna Fáil).
In Finn’s words, it’ll be a “dogfight”.
We’ve another update from Emma Hickey in the RDS:
We’re not long past the first hour of counting here at RDS Simmonscourt, but boxes are being opened left, right and centre.
Dublin Central is a constituency to watch, with a number of high-profile incumbents and high-profile contenders – Gerard ‘The Monk’ Hutch and former MEP Clare Daly are contesting a seat here, and they’re up against the likes of Mary Lou McDonald, Paschal Donohoe, Gary Gannon and Neasa Hourigan.
Based off initial tallies, McDonald is leading in the constituency, followed by Hutch. Gannon and Donohoe are not far behind.
In Dublin Bay South, 35% of the boxes have been tallied for first preference votes only, and Sinn Féin’s Chris Andrews is leading the way with 21.2% of the current vote count.
Ivana Bacik is next with 14.3%, and just 11 votes behind her is Fine Gael’s James Geoghegan, the current Lord Mayor of Dublin. So far, there are no real surprises in the tallies, but as one tally person said: “The transfers are going to be all over the place.”
Dublin Bay South will be a very hotly contested constituency.
Speaking about early tallies there, former Labour TD Kevin Humphreys told RTÉ News that Fine Gael’s James Geoghegan “has done very well”.
Many boxes are yet to be opened but, as things stand, Humphreys predicted that Geoghegan will be elected alongside Labour leader Ivana Bacik and Fianna Fáil’s Jim O’Callaghan.
Humphreys said he believes the fourth and final seat will go to Sinn Féin’s Chris Andrews or the Green Party’s Hazel Chu.
Of the boxes already opened, Andrews is ahead but Humphreys cautioned that those boxes are from Andrews’ “core” areas where he was expected to do particularly well. Ultimately, it’ll come down to transfers.
Chu is doing “very well” from transfers from the Social Democrats and Labour, Humphreys said.
That seems to be right through the ballot paper – the Greens, Social Democrats and Labour are transferring very heavily to each other.
Kate O’Connell, an independent candidate and former FG TD, is a bit further behind, according to early tallies but boxes in many of her key areas are yet to be opened, Humphreys added.
Former Green Party leader Eamon Ryan topped the poll in the DBS constituency in 2020, but is not running this time around.
Our reporter Emma Hickey is at the RDS count centre in Dublin. Here are some updates from her:
Two tallies from Smithfield in Dublin Central, 15 minutes into the count. Mary Lou McDonald and Paschal Donohoe leading the way pic.twitter.com/xf4XasTAK5
— Emma Hickey (@emma_hickey1) November 30, 2024
Tally of a ballot box from Cabra — Paschal Donohoe, Marie Sherlock and Mary Lou McDonald comfortably ahead #dublincentral #GE24 pic.twitter.com/pGEEavY4li
— Emma Hickey (@emma_hickey1) November 30, 2024
Speaking on Morning Ireland, Sinn Féin’s Matt Carthy, who is looking to retain his seat in the Cavan–Monaghan constituency, said SF could end up being the biggest party.
“We went into these elections with many people predicting our demise. It now appears that we may be the largest political party.
“If we are the largest political party, we will talk to everybody. We will try and create a government without Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael,” Carthy said.
Sinn Féin was mired in controversy when the election was called just a few weeks ago. However, the exit poll places them *slightly* ahead of FG and FF (21.1%, 21% and 19.5% respectively).
Carthy said: “The nightmare scenario, as far as I’m concerned, as somebody who has an 18 and a 17 and younger kids at home, the nightmare scenario is Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael returning to government, regardless of what the third leg of the stool is, because what that means is that many people of their generations will be finding work in Australia and Canada and elsewhere.”
Workers at the RDS in Dublin, and many other count centres around the country, have their hands full this morning:
Some more information from the Ipsos B&A exit poll commissioned by RTÉ, The Irish Times, TG4 and Trinity College Dublin.
Almost half of people who said they gave Sinn Féin a first preference vote said housing and homelessness was the most important issue for them.
Health and cost of living were the biggest issues for Fianna Fáil voters, while economic stability, cost of living, and health were the biggest issues for Fine Gael voters.
According to the exit poll, the top three issues for the 1,250 voters questioned were housing/homelessness (28%), cost of living (19%) and health (17%).
The next most important issues were economic stability (9%), immigration (6%), climate change (4%), crime (2%), transport and roads (2%) and childcare (2%).
Some 6% of people listed ‘something else’ as their main concern.
On Morning Ireland, Jack Chambers wanted to point out the “very clear differences” between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.
He said the two parties “worked well together in the last four and a half years in government through very difficult times – Covid and the energy crisis and the war in Ukraine”.
However, he noted: “We ran different campaigns with different priorities and very much a different platform.
“We have emphasis on greater investment in public services, and we didn’t take the same approach when it came to reduction of taxation, for example. So there were very clear differences in policies.”
Boyd Barrett said he was “glad” when Sinn Féin asked their voters to give preferences to parties on the left on Wednesday, but he wishes it happened sooner.
“Two days out, to say we’re going to vote, we’re calling for second preferences and third preferences for People Before Profit and the Soc Dems.
“They should have done that earlier. And I think we would have had a different type of dynamic. And even now, I would say the left have to give people a sense of that alternative.”
RBB said the low turnout in many areas indicates some people didn’t see an alternative to Fianna Fáil and/or Fine Gael returning to power.
“The low turnout, lower turnout of working class areas, I suspect among young people, is because they didn’t see a clear alternative to the establishment.”
Speaking on the same programme, People Before Profit leader Richard Boyd Barrett said the exit poll showed that voters’ main concerns are housing, health and cost of living.
A large number of voters also chose the ‘other’ option (6%) when noting their concerns, RBB said he believes many people in this category were referring to Palestine.
“The moving of the dial, from a policy point of view, has actually been in the left direction,” he said.
“Whoever is in power will have to deliver on those things.”
Speaking on RTÉ’s Morning Ireland election special, Minister for Finance Jack Chambers said the outcome is “too close to call at this point”.
Opinion polls in recent days had put his Fianna Fáil party slightly ahead of Fine Gael and Sinn Féin.
However, last night’s exit poll, places FF slight behind SF and FG – although it’s all within the margin of error. (The exit poll puts SF on 21.1%, FG on 21% and FF on 19.5%.)
Speaking this morning, Chambers said his party is awaiting news of the “wider trend” and “regional breakdown”.
The minister said the regional trends will give a better sense of what way the seats will go. He praised Micheál Martin’s “positive” campaign and said FF is hopeful of returning to power.
“We’ve really strong candidates across the country who ran excellent grassroots campaigns.”
Happy Count Day, to all who celebrate.
Happy Count Day. pic.twitter.com/GDNvGgQamG
— Rachael English (@EnglishRachael) November 30, 2024
Pop quiz: Who said this, a staff member at a count centre or Count von Count?
“Greetings! I am The Count. They call me the Count because I love to count things.”
Answers on a postcard, please.
Has a politician ‘scraped through’ if they were elected in the later counts?
A political scientist from Trinity College Dublin says such a claim is “misleading”.
Gail McElroy told The Journal it doesn’t matter what count you get elected on.
“You get elected or you don’t, it’s not even a conversation which count you get elected on.
“It’s a very disingenuous debate and is irrelevant and misleading.”
Some more details from the Ipsos B&A exit poll commissioned by RTÉ, The Irish Times, TG4 and Trinity College Dublin.
Micheál Martin is most people’s preferred Taoiseach, according to the poll, followed closely by Mary Lou McDonald.
Most people polled (31%) want another FF-FG coalition, but others (22%) want a Sinn Féin-led coalition without FF or FG.
Exit Poll suggests that 35% of respondents want Micheál Martin leading the next government, followed by 34% support for Mary Lou McDonald, with Simon Harris trailing on 27% https://t.co/ymbwClNORP
— RTÉ News (@rtenews) November 30, 2024
Some 31% of people who took part in the Exit Poll want to see a FF-FG coalition form the next government, followed by 22% who want to see a Sinn Féin-led coalition without FF or FG https://t.co/afZC8mNHYe
— RTÉ News (@rtenews) November 30, 2024
Is there anything to be said for some more projections?
The aptly-named Irish Election Projections has this to say about transfers:
Some chatter around the in-party transfer figures in the exit poll and while on surface they look bad for FF and FG, if you adjust for the number of constituencies where they only have one candidate, it works out very similar to GE 2020. pic.twitter.com/GvAqhdsU00
— Irish Election Projections (@irishelectproj) November 30, 2024
In a follow-up post, the group said it “wouldn’t read too much into this at this stage, or the small fluctuations, beyond noting that it is similar to last time round”.
Here is a round-up of our Voices opinion pieces over the past few days:
What might the next Dáil look like? Ireland Votes has compiled some seat projections, based on the Ipsos B%A exit poll.
In their words, “a lot of collaboration” may be needed in the weeks (and months) ahead.
What do our Seat Projections - based on the Ipsos B&A Exit poll data - indicate for government formation?
— Ireland Votes (@Ireland_Votes) November 29, 2024
Well, as you can see, there may be a lot of collaboration needed in the weeks ahead...
Note: we applied a rule of 4 parties or less! https://t.co/anZMLjQUJa pic.twitter.com/VjOt4K1jP1
Voes in the constituency of Limerick City may be determined void before they are even counted, after it emerged candidates names did not appear in alphabetical order on some ballot papers, as required by legislation.
Clarity has been sought as to whether or not the votes will be counted at 9am today after the error on the ballot papers was noticed and first reported by the Limerick Post newspaper.
Section 88 of the Electoral Act 1992 *does* stipulate that candidates must be listed in the ballot in alphabetical order by surname
— Gavan Reilly (@gavreilly) November 29, 2024
Electoral law states that candidates must be listed on the ballot paper in alphabetical order, however Sinn Féin’s Maurice Quinlivan and Dean Quinn (The Irish People) were incorrectly placed ahead of Willie O’Dea (Fianna Fáil) and Elisa O’Donovan (Social Democrats), on some ballot papers.
The votes have been cast, but when will we know the results?
After a three-week campaign, the talking is over and the nation has spoken at the ballot box.
However, it will be some time before we know the results of the 2024 general election, Diarmuid Pepper explains here.
There are four extra constituencies and 14 additional Dáil seats up for grabs, compared to 2020.
Close to 700 candidates have been vying for votes across 43 constituencies to fill the 174 seats in what will be the largest ever Dáil Éireann.
We could be facing a slightly longer count than last time as a result.
A return of coalition based around Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael is likely if the exit poll results are borne out tomorrow, our political editor Christina Finn writes.
So now what?
With these figures, and noting the margin of error, it is pretty much deadlock.
“Government formation talks could prove tricky, but there is a path back to power for Simon Harris and Micheál Martin, if they choose it,” Finn writes.
First things first, the exit poll.
ICYMI last night, the three biggest parties are all tied on similar support, according to an exit poll commissioned by RTÉ, The Irish Times, TG4, Trinity College Dublin and carried out by Ipsos B&A.
The poll shows Sinn Féin on 21.1%, Fine Gael on 21% and Fianna Fáil on 19.5%.
It’s important to note that margin of error is plus or minus 1.4%.
The other parties are as follows:
Ipsos interviewed 5,018 people in 253 polling stations across Ireland immediately after they voted yesterday.
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