Live BlogLAST UPDATE | 17 mins ago
THE BALLOTS HAVE all been cast in the 2024 general election.
Sorting of votes commenced at 9am in centres around the country to determine who will – and won’t – be making it into the next Dáil.
Last night’s exit poll puts Sinn Féin on 21.1%, Fine Gael on 21% and Fianna Fáil on 19.5% (with a margin of error of plus or minus 1.4%).
The Journal will have reporters bringing you live updates throughout the day from multiple count centres at various locations around the country.
Buckle in.
With updates by Lauren Boland (now) and Órla Ryan (earlier)
Mallow’s returning officer says that the Cork East count is expected at 6pm, Cork South West at 7pm, and Cork North West soon after, reports Steven Fox.
No candidates are likely to be elected on first count but the returning officer is hoping to have all the seats herre filled by the end of the night.
With 100% of boxes counted in the final tally for Carlow-Kilkenny, Fianna Fáil will be rather happy with the outcome.
John McGuinness of Fianna Fáil is at the top of the polls with 14% of first preferences, closely followed by his running mates Jennifer Murnane O’Connor and Peter ‘Chap’ Cleere, reports Rachel Holden.
Fine Gael’s Catherine Callaghan follows behind along with Sinn Féin’s Áine Gladney Knox. Still a long night ahead at the count centre.
Sinn Féin’s Thomas Gould speaking to Niall O’Connor at the Cork North Central count:
Deputy Thomas Gould in Cork North Central looks set to retain his seat on the tallies so far. @thejournal_ie pic.twitter.com/JPH3Bsq0KM
— Niall O’Connor (@NiallJournal_ie) November 30, 2024
Reporter Eoghan Dalton has the latest for us from Wexford:
The first full tally here showed Independent Verona Murphy in the clear with 21% of the vote. Fianna Fáil’s James Browne followed with 16%, while Sinn Fein’s Johnny Mythen and Labour’s George Lawlor were level on 14%.
There are four seats available in Wexford but Fine Gael may be struggling to get either of its candidates over the line. Cathal Byrne is on 9.5% and running mate Bridín Murphy is on 6%. Coming in between them is Aontú’s Jim Codd on 7%.
However, transfers may yet play a role in deciding those final seats.
The first count is not expected until 6pm this evening, with some thinking the count could easily go into tomorrow night.
Emma Whitney has been speaking to a member of Claire Kerrane’s (Sinn Féin) campaign team at the count centre for Roscommon-Galway.
On Kerrane’s chances of election, the team member feels they are “pretty good”, though Independent Ireland’s Michael Fitzmaurice appears on track to take the first seat.
“Claire may get some transfers to push her forward across the line from some of the smaller candidates being eliminated. The likes of People Before Profit’s transfers would likely transfer to Sinn Féin, as well as some transfers from Dympna Daly-Finn in the north of Roscommon,” the team member said.
The first count announcement for this constituency is expected to come in around 7pm, Emma reports.
Elizabeth Rymut reports the bustle has slowed down a little in Dun Laoghaire as an announcement about the result of the first count is expected to come soon.
Gráinne Ní Aodha of the PA news agency (a former reporter for The Journal - hi Gráinne!) has the scoop on the count staffer snapped wearing a t-shirt saying ‘Maybe I Like This Misery’.
Photos of count staffer Cian O'Connor are getting a bit of attention today. A lovely man who gets his cool tshirts from the Cork-based business @HairyBabyTees.
— Gráinne Ní Aodha (@GNiAodha) November 30, 2024
Here's an interview we did with him in June, complete with more count-appropriate fits... https://t.co/96ZSFcieL5 pic.twitter.com/w54XQ5zXJ4
In Dublin Central, the constituency of Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald, Gerry ‘The Monk’ Hutch is very much in with a chance of winning one of its four seats.
The tally of its first preference votes has Hutch in fourth place on 9.3%.
He’s up against high-profile candidates. Not only McDonald, who is on 19.4% in tallies, but also Paschal Donohoe of Fine Gael (16.6%) and Gary Gannon of the Social Democrats (13.2%).
Labour’s Marie Sherlock, Green Neasa Hourigan, Independent Malachy Steenson and Independent for Change candidate Clare Daly were all also running in this constituency.
So how did Hutch break through?
My colleague Mairead Maguire has written more about that in this article on The Journal.
We’ve talked a fair bit about the Wicklow constituency, where sitting minister Stephen Donnelly has a fight ahead of him if he wants to try to keep his seat. Here’s what the state of play looks like with the tally fully… tallied.
After 45 years as a local councillor, William ‘Willie’ Aird is on course to be elected as a TD in Laois.
Aird is currently in the lead in the constituency – ahead of two sitting TDs, Seán Fleming and Brian Stanley – as counting continues.
Órla Ryan has written a report about his bid for the Dáil on The Journal - including the reason why he hasn’t ran before.
I mentioned earlier that Michael McGrath of Fianna Fáil, who has recently become an EU Commissioner, is at the Cork South Central count to support his brother Seamus, who’s looking to replace him in the constituency.
Niall O’Connor has spoken to Michael McGrath:
I spoke to Michael McGrath here. His brother Seamus looks safe for a seat in Cork South Central. @thejournal_ie pic.twitter.com/0JEretoX6q
— Niall O’Connor (@NiallJournal_ie) November 30, 2024
There is a definite buzz in the air as the count continues at The National Show Centre for Dublin Fingal East and West, Alice O’Leary tells us.
In Fingal East: Fianna Fáil’s Darragh O’Brien is ‘soaring’ at a tally of 8,756 – with expectations he will soon reach the quota. Sinn Féin’s Ann Graves follows behind at 14.4%, with Labour’s Duncan Smith and Alan Farrell of Fine Gael sitting closely together at 14.3% and 14.2%, respectively.
There was a brief interruption to counting at the Dun Laoghaire centre, reports Elizabeth Rymut, as the fire alarm starting blaring unexpectedly.
Most people remained inside the building as the alarm sounded until all except count staff were asked to move outside.
The fire alarm has started blaring at the Dun Laoghaire count centre. pic.twitter.com/4GmzLFpjlV
— TheJournal.ie (@thejournal_ie) November 30, 2024
Shortly after media and others were moved out of the building, the alarm stopped and attendees were allowed back inside.
The alarm is no longer ringing but there’s certainly a new boost of energy in the room now after the bit of excitement to break up the count-watching, Elizabeth says.
The hustle and bustle is back in Carlow-Kilkenny, Loreto Secondary School, as we near the end of the count with 93% of boxes counted. John McGuinness (Fianna Fáil) is now leading with 13% and Jennifer Murnane O’Connor (Fianna Fáil) following with 12%, reports Rachel Holden.
Sinéad Gibney of the Social Democrats says she is “thrilled” with the result so far in Dublin Rathdown, with this morning’s tally showing her at 8.7% of the vote – but it will be a close race for one of the four seats up for grabs, reports Aisling Redden.
The Journal Politics Correspondent Jane Matthews is at the RDS, where she’s been hearing from both outgoing Green TD Eamon Ryan and… filmmaker Jim Sheridan, who spoke about Gerry Hutch’s run and says he’s thinking about making a documentary about this election.
Eamon Ryan has arrived at the RDS.
— Jane Matthews (@janeematthews) November 30, 2024
He says there is now a risk of the political system reading the Greens poor performance as a message not to go so strong on public transport or reducing emissions.
He warns that this would be the wrong direction for the country. pic.twitter.com/7G5WIXNK81
Director Jim Sheridan on what he thinks Gerry “the monk” Hutch’s appeal is.
— Jane Matthews (@janeematthews) November 30, 2024
Sheridan said he is “thinking” of doing a documentary on this election and that at the beginning, he didn’t think Hutch had a chance.
@thejournal_ie pic.twitter.com/omXmCiZraR
There’s plenty of media at the count centre for Dublin West but no big news just yet, reports Megan O’Brien.
The returning officer told The Journal that spoiled votes are still being removed.
It’s looking good for outgoing Minister for Finance Jack Chambers a tally published at 12:01pm that put him on 22%.
Fine Gael Senator Emer Currie may be able to win a seat as she’s on 15% but Sinn Féin’s Paul Donnelly sits just ahead of her on 17%.
Supporters of Green Party leader Roderic O’Gorman may be cautiously optimistic, as the tally puts him fifth on 7%, just behind People Before Profit’s Ruth Coppinger (8%).
In Dún Laoghaire, Elizabeth Rymut reports that the count centre expects a first count result by this evening. Here’s what the scenes look like around the centre, which is focused and filled with the sounds of shuffling and knocking papers:
Cork native and The Journal News Correspondent Niall O’Connor is at the count centre for Cork South Central and Cork North Central.
He says the centre is expecting its first count result at around 6pm. Full count will take about two days.
Good afternoon from Cork South Central and Cork North Central count centre. Counting underway.
— Niall O’Connor (@NiallJournal_ie) November 30, 2024
I spoke briefly to returning officer Martin Harvey who tells me full count will take two days. First count result at around 6pm-ish. @thejournal_ie pic.twitter.com/mrFFpcm5JQ
After a busy morning in Carlow-Kilkenny, around three-quarters of the boxes are opened. Fianna Fáil’s Jennifer Murnane O’Connor and John McGuinness are topping the count at the moment, reports Rachel Holden, who’s on the ground for us at Loreto Secondary School in Jamespark.
Nearby, at the tally for Fingal West, Sinn Féin’s Louise O’Reilly is leading with 23.2% of the votes. Rob O’Donoghue of Labour sits at 16.2%, with Fine Gael’s Grace Boland at 15.4%, Alice reports.
Turnout is slightly lower than neighbouring Fingal East – just 56.76% here.
Fianna Fáíl’s Darragh O’Brien is showing a clear majority for Fingal East, with 23.1% of first preference votes in the completed tally, reports Alice O’Leary, who’s on the ground at its count centre.
Coming shortly behind is Sinn Féin’s Ann Graves at 14.4%, Labour’s Duncan Smith at 14.3% and Fine Gael’s Alan Farrell at 14.2% – the fight is on for the second and third seat in this new three-seat constituency, Alice reports.
Turnout in the new constituency was 60.2%.
Former Green Party leader Eamon Ryan has arrived at the RDS count centre.
Ryan himself isn’t running in this election, leaving a seat up for grabs in his former constituency of Dublin Bay South.
Steven Fox is at a count centre in Mallow.
In the tally for Cork East, Fianna Fáil’s James O’Connor and Fine Gael’s Mark Stanton are currently leading the pack but neither are over the quota, Steven reports.
Sinn Féin’s Pat Buckley and Social Democrats candidate Liam Quaide are tight behind.
In Cork South West, Michael Collins of Independent Ireland is on 23.5%, Social Democrats leader Holly Cairns is on 20% and Fianna Fáil’s Christopher O’Sullivan is close behind on 19.2%.
Sinn Féin’s two candidates aren’t doing too well here with just 2.8% and 1.8% each.
Emma Whitney is in the count centre for Roscommon-Galway for us this afternoon.
It’s the constituency where Michael Fitzmaurice is running, the former independent TD who recently founded the Independent Ireland party.
Emma reports that a member of his campaign team at the count centre seems hopeful. “You’re always a bit worried when pounding the doors but (…) the people have stood by Michael Fitzmaurice and it’s very obvious that people appreciate the work that he’s doing, especially the rural and farming community,” they said.
“We’re looking at a time when rural Ireland, all over the west, is in a state of crisis and little towns and villages are being lost – the doors are closed and the windows are fogged up (…) Towns can only survive if the rural hinterland around it is prospering,” the team member said.
Meanwhile, Malachy Hand, the president of Fianna Fáil’s Roscommon South branch, said he feels that candidate Martin Daly has polled very strongly and ran a good campaign, but ultimately it will come down to transfers and eliminations of other candidates.
We’ve just published an episode of our politics podcast The Candidate, with Christine Bohan (in studio) and Christina Finn (in her car).
They’ve identified one big question that’s hanging over the results so far: is it still viable for parties to refuse to consider Sinn Féin as a coalition partner?
Listen now (and subscribe) wherever you get your podcasts.
At the count for the Dún Laoghaire constituency, Elizabeth Rymut reports that the count centre has its final tally in.
Jennifer Carroll MacNeil (Fine Gael) is leading the poll at 21.05%, with Barry Ward likely to take a second seat for Fine Gael, Elizabeth says.
Richard Boyd Barrett of People Before Profit could also likely reclaim his seat, as could Cormac Devlin of Fianna Fáil to fill the constituency’s four seats.
Stephen Donnelly is in trouble.
The Fianna Fáil health minister has a fight on his hands to try to hold his seat in Wicklow, writes politics editor Christina Finn.
The constituency has gone from a five to a four seater, meaning that at least one of its sitting TDs cannot be re-elected.
Donnelly has 6.3% of the vote share, according the latest tally, which has got through 126 of the 158 boxes.
He’s in fourth place right now but hot on his heels is Independent Shay Cullen with 5.8% of the vote, followed by Fine Gael’s Edward Timmins with 5.4% and Independent Joe Behan with 4.9%.
Megan O’Brien is reporting for us at the count for the Dublin South-West constituency.
Work is quietly continuing at the Weston Airport count centre, Megan reports.
No candidate has appeared to reached the quota yet on the tally but Sinn Féin’s Sean Crowe is well in the lead on 14.85%. Fine Gael’s Colm Brophy follows on 12.69% and Fianna Fáil’s John Lahart on 12.39%.
It’s not looking good for the Social Democrats, Green Party or Aontú here, Megan says, as Labour’s Ciarán Ahern, People Before Profit’s Paul Murphy and Fianna Fáil’s Teresa Costello shape up to be in contention for seats.
You’d almost forget in all this that there was big, non-election, happy news yesterday for Social Democrats leader Holly Cairns, who gave birth to her first child.
President Michael D. Higgins has offered his congratulations.
Every health and happiness to @HollyCairnsTD and Barry on the birth of their baby girl
— President of Ireland (@PresidentIRL) November 30, 2024
Aisling Redden is reporting from the count centre for Dublin Rathdown.
She says it’s fairly calm there for now after the morning rush to open the ballot boxes. From the tally, Neale Richmond (Fine Gael) is set to maintain his seat with 20.5% of the vote. His Fine Gael partner Maeve O’Connell is at 13%.
Meanwhile, Shay Brennan (FF) looks fairly steady at 12%.
Sinéad Gibney (Social Democrats) is at 8.7%, just ahead of Catherine Martin (Green Party) at 8.5%.
Gibney could benefit from potential transfer votes from Labour’s Lettie McCarthy who is trailing at 6.2%.
But competition for the fourth seat will be fierce, with Independent candidate Michael Fleming at 8.9% while Shaun Tracy (Sinn Féin) is on 7.2%.
What does a count centre look like? Some behind the scenes photos of the RDS in Dublin and Shoreline Leisure Cenre in Wicklow today. Photos by Leon Farrell and Sasko Lazarov of Rollingnews.ie.
Cork North Central has now completed its tally.
Padraig O’Sullivan of Fianna Fáil is topping the tally with 13.2% of first preferences, followed closely by Sinn Féin’s Thomas Gould.
Ken O’Flynn of Independent Ireland is on 9.8%, Fine Gael’s Colm Burke is almost on par on 9.7%, and Fianna Fáil’s second candidate Tony Fitzgerald is next on 7%.
Mick Barry of People Before Profit received 6% on the tally and Eoghan Kenny of Labour received 5.6%.
There were 21 candidates in total on this constituency’s ballot – many of them received less than 5%, or even less than 2% or 3%, of first preferecces.
The quota for the constituency is expected to be 9,509.
No candidate appears to have reached that (O’Sullivan is on 7,470 first preferences, according to the tally), so it’ll likely take a couple of poorly performing candidates being eliminated before a seat is filled.
Some unpleasant news that may not come as a surprise for anyone in touch with the current political climate: at least 55 incidents of politically motivated violence, threats, harassment, targeting and smears against political candidates or their canvassers have been documented in the weeks leading up to the general election.
The Institute for Strategic Dialogue, which studies extremism, hate and disinformation, and the Hope and Courage Collective, a civil society organisation working against hate and extremism, have released a joint investigation on violent activity identified in the five-week period ahead of the general election.
Roderic O’Gorman, Aodhán Ó Ríordáin, Monica Peres Oikeh, Mary Lou McDonald, Paul Murphy, Umar Al-Qadri, Mary Butler, Pearse Doherty and Helen McEntee were among the candidates who were targeted by hate or harassment.
You can read more about the investigation in this article on The Journal.
In Cork, Michael McGrath – the incoming EU Commissioner for Democracy, Justice and Rule of Law and former Fianna Fáil finance minister – said it is important that the new government is a stable one.
Speaking to the PA news agency at the Nemo Rangers count centre in Cork, he said: “I hope it is a stable government that has the prospect of lasting the five years because of the challenges we are facing in Ireland and throughout the European Union.”
“Let’s allow the picture to emerge over the days ahead.”
McGrath was at the count centre in support of his brother, Councillor Seamus McGrath, who is running in Michael’s former constituency of Cork South Central.
“I’m here to do what he did for me for about 25 years,” (Michael) McGrath said.
It’s been a difficult election for the Green Party.
Party leader Roderic O’Gorman has called it a disappointing result and expects the party will only receive two or three seats, which would be a marked fall from the 12 seats it has held since the last election in 2020.
Our reporter Emma Hickey at the RDS count centre says Neasa Hourigan is en route to lose her seat in Dublin Central and Ossian Smyth has fallen behind in Dun Laoghaire.
In O’Gorman’s five-seater constituency of Dublin West, where 97% of the ballot boxes have been opened, he is currently in fifth place in terms of first-preference votes. However, transfers could still change that as the rounds of counting play out.
Afternoon! Lauren Boland here.
If you’re just joining us now, here’s the state of play:
*One seat has technically been filled – the Ceann Comhaire, who is not allowed to engage in politics, is automatically re-elected. That’s Fianna Fáil’s Seán Ó Fearghaíl this time around.
Thanks for staying with us so far today, I’m now going to hand you over to my colleague Lauren Boland.
Another update from Wicklow…
🗳️ Next hour or so will be critical for the Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly. At 6.4% with over 40% of boxes tallied the seat may be slipping away.
— Ireland Votes (@Ireland_Votes) November 30, 2024
Speaking to our political editor Christina Finn in Wicklow, Sinn Féin’s John Brady said a trend is “starting to emerge” as boxes continue to be opened in the constituency.
He said SF has done “extremely well” in Wicklow and nationally, based on the exit poll and early tallies.
Had a quick chat with Sinn Féin’s John Brady on how the day is shaping up. pic.twitter.com/9UJ9GW2SpZ
— Christina Finn (@christinafinn8) November 30, 2024
Outgoing People Before Profit TD Bríd Smith (Dublin South-Central) said there is an alternative left alliance to Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, but other left parties had “failed to pull that together”.
Speaking to RTÉ News, Smith said: “You had Mary Lou McDonald calling for ‘vote left, transfer left’ in the last two days of the campaign, you had the Social Democrats’ Gary Gannon saying something similar and Joan Collins saying something similar in the last week.
“We have been saying this for months and months, we wrote to all the left parties and all the left independents and asked them to do a ‘vote left, transfer left’ pact and got no responses – and the failure of the left is much to their shame.”
Smith added she is “delighted” to see PBP’s Hazel De Nortúin tallying at around 12% in Dublin South-Central.
Early tallies in Cork South Central place Tánaiste Micheál Martin out in front (but all boxes are yet to be opened):
More than 60% of boxes have been tallied in Cork North Central.
Here’s the latest tally:
Unsurprisingly, the Healy-Rae brothers are polling well in Kerry.
With 69 of 260 boxes opened, Michael is on 23% of first preference votes while Danny is on 14.5%.
Pa Daly of Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil’s Norma Foley are both on 13%.
As it stands, the four incumbent TDs are likely to be re-elected.
Fianna Fáil in the hunt for a second seat in Kerry afterall at the expense of Fine Gael - with Michael Cahill and Billy O’Shea running neck and neck on 10%
— Barry Lenihan (@BarryLenihan) November 30, 2024
With 25% boxes tallied favouring rural areas in North Kerry but transfers likely to favour Cahill
4 incumbents hold
And speaking of lost things, our colleague Nicky Ryan is also missing some deeply sentimental personal items.
Brought several loving but venomous pet snakes with me while voting yesterday, just realised I haven't seen them since! Can the count centre staff PLEASE keep an eye out for them in the ballot boxes
— Nicky Ryan (@NickyRyan_) November 30, 2024
Speaking of Donegal, another wedding ring has been found in a ballot box (the other ring was found in Mullingar earlier).
We found a wedding ring among the ballots in Donegal. 🗳💍😆 More details on https://t.co/MViqsbauLm #GE24 pic.twitter.com/zy7u9ZHbDC
— Mark Tighe (@MarkLTighe) November 30, 2024
Voting is not without its risks, kids.
My colleague Mairead Maguire has an update on Donegal, another constituency worth watching as counting continues.
She writes:
Donegal is a county with a dispersed electorate, and at this point fewer than 50 of the 267 boxes have been opened so I will preface this analysis with a massive health warning!
With that being said, this is what we know about the five-seat constituency so far. Tallies say:
Sitting Sinn Féin TDs Pearse Doherty and Pádraig Mac Lochlainn are pretty much guaranteed to keep their seats.
Fianna Fáil will likely win at least one seat. This could be the 76-year-old Pat ‘The Cope’ Gallagher, who is running after a short break from politics. Incumbent TD Charlie McConalogue, who served as Agriculture Minister, could be in trouble, or he could win a second seat for FF.
Still, the last two seats are very much up for grabs. The 100% Redress (Mica) Party candidate Charles Ward is doing well in early tallies. Meanwhile, independent Thomas Pringle, a mainstay of the constituency, can’t be too confident just yet. It really is too early to tell.
There’s a chance that Sinn Féin’s third candidate, Noel Jordan, could also win a seat.
It’s not looking good for either of the two Fine Gael candidates – but with only 20% of boxes open and an uneven geographical spread, it’s all to play for.
Counting is in full swing in Limerick city – despite concerns about the fact the names of some candidates were not listed in alphabetical order (as required by legislation).
And we’re off —counting of votes has started 4 seater Limerick City constituency alphabetical error on the ballot paper acknowledged but Returning officer satisfied that count proceed @rtenews pic.twitter.com/t5FlZsbfeC
— RTÉ Limerick City (@RTElimerickcity) November 30, 2024
Electoral law states that candidates must be listed on the ballot paper in alphabetical order, however Sinn Féin’s Maurice Quinlivan and Dean Quinn (The Irish People party) were incorrectly placed ahead of Willie O’Dea (FF) and Elisa O’Donovan (Social Democrats), on some ballot papers.
98% boxes tallied #dubc #GeneralElection24 #GE24 pic.twitter.com/MLL5zi3s2n
— RTÉ Dublin Central (@RTEdubCENTRAL) November 30, 2024
Gerry ‘The Monk’ Hutch is performing well in Dublin Central, he’s currently in fourth place (in the four-seater), based on an early tally:
Hutch, a notorious gangland figure, has divided people in the constituency.
Another update from Christina Finn, our political editor, in Wicklow:
There’s a heavy media presence here – Sky News, RTÉ, Virgin Media and many well known reporters are all here to watch how the Wicklow constituency plays out.
Speaking to a few tally people – both FF and FG – it’s acknowledged that sitting minister Stephen Donnelly could be in bother. Simon Harris, as to be expected, is coming out on top so far. As one FF person said, transfers between FG and FF will matter hugely for Donnelly.
From what I’ve seen, many people have given Harris their number 1 and Donnelly their number 2 vote.
Predictions from a few people here: Harris, Soc Dems’ Jennifer Whitmore and Sinn Fein’s John Brady should each safely take a seat, but Donnelly will be in a battle for the last seat.
It’ll be interesting to see how many of Harris’ transfers go to running mate Edward Timmons or independent Shay Cullen.
— Brian O'Connell (@oconnellbrian) November 30, 2024
Excellent t-shirt choice by a worker at the Nemo Rangers count centre in Cork.
In a time-honoured election tradition, someone lost their wedding ring in a ballot box.
Who had their money on Mullingar?
We have a wedding ring! One of the counters Peter Creamer has found a wedding ring in a box from Gael Scoil an Choilin in Mullingar. #GE24 pic.twitter.com/blS6D2bfnE
— RTÉ Longford-Westmeath (@RTElongfordWMH) November 30, 2024
I’m here in the Greystones where the Wicklow tallies are underway. It’s gone from a five seater to four, so a dogfight here.
— Christina Finn (@christinafinn8) November 30, 2024
Tallies are weighted towards the west of the county but Harris performing well, as is Soc Dems Jennifer Whitmore.
All eyes on Donnelly here. pic.twitter.com/lcpWkYz9zI
Our political editor Christina Finn is in Greystones, where counting has begun in the Wicklow constituency.
This is, of course, Taoiseach Simon Harris’ constituency. He is expected to retain his seat, but a question mark hangs over the seat of Health Minister Stephen Donnelly (Fianna Fáil).
In Finn’s words, it’ll be a “dogfight”.
We’ve another update from Emma Hickey in the RDS:
We’re not long past the first hour of counting here at RDS Simmonscourt, but boxes are being opened left, right and centre.
Dublin Central is a constituency to watch, with a number of high-profile incumbents and high-profile contenders – Gerard ‘The Monk’ Hutch and former MEP Clare Daly are contesting a seat here, and they’re up against the likes of Mary Lou McDonald, Paschal Donohoe, Gary Gannon and Neasa Hourigan.
Based off initial tallies, McDonald is leading in the constituency, followed by Hutch. Gannon and Donohoe are not far behind.
In Dublin Bay South, 35% of the boxes have been tallied for first preference votes only, and Sinn Féin’s Chris Andrews is leading the way with 21.2% of the current vote count.
Ivana Bacik is next with 14.3%, and just 11 votes behind her is Fine Gael’s James Geoghegan, the current Lord Mayor of Dublin. So far, there are no real surprises in the tallies, but as one tally person said: “The transfers are going to be all over the place.”
Dublin Bay South will be a very hotly contested constituency.
Speaking about early tallies there, former Labour TD Kevin Humphreys told RTÉ News that Fine Gael’s James Geoghegan “has done very well”.
Many boxes are yet to be opened but, as things stand, Humphreys predicted that Geoghegan will be elected alongside Labour leader Ivana Bacik and Fianna Fáil’s Jim O’Callaghan.
Humphreys said he believes the fourth and final seat will go to Sinn Féin’s Chris Andrews or the Green Party’s Hazel Chu.
Of the boxes already opened, Andrews is ahead but Humphreys cautioned that those boxes are from Andrews’ “core” areas where he was expected to do particularly well. Ultimately, it’ll come down to transfers.
Chu is doing “very well” from transfers from the Social Democrats and Labour, Humphreys said.
That seems to be right through the ballot paper – the Greens, Social Democrats and Labour are transferring very heavily to each other.
Kate O’Connell, an independent candidate and former FG TD, is a bit further behind, according to early tallies but boxes in many of her key areas are yet to be opened, Humphreys added.
Former Green Party leader Eamon Ryan topped the poll in the DBS constituency in 2020, but is not running this time around.
Our reporter Emma Hickey is at the RDS count centre in Dublin. Here are some updates from her:
Two tallies from Smithfield in Dublin Central, 15 minutes into the count. Mary Lou McDonald and Paschal Donohoe leading the way pic.twitter.com/xf4XasTAK5
— Emma Hickey (@emma_hickey1) November 30, 2024
Tally of a ballot box from Cabra — Paschal Donohoe, Marie Sherlock and Mary Lou McDonald comfortably ahead #dublincentral #GE24 pic.twitter.com/pGEEavY4li
— Emma Hickey (@emma_hickey1) November 30, 2024
Speaking on Morning Ireland, Sinn Féin’s Matt Carthy, who is looking to retain his seat in the Cavan–Monaghan constituency, said SF could end up being the biggest party.
“We went into these elections with many people predicting our demise. It now appears that we may be the largest political party.
“If we are the largest political party, we will talk to everybody. We will try and create a government without Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael,” Carthy said.
Sinn Féin was mired in controversy when the election was called just a few weeks ago. However, the exit poll places them *slightly* ahead of FG and FF (21.1%, 21% and 19.5% respectively).
Carthy said: “The nightmare scenario, as far as I’m concerned, as somebody who has an 18 and a 17 and younger kids at home, the nightmare scenario is Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael returning to government, regardless of what the third leg of the stool is, because what that means is that many people of their generations will be finding work in Australia and Canada and elsewhere.”
Workers at the RDS in Dublin, and many other count centres around the country, have their hands full this morning:
Some more information from the Ipsos B&A exit poll commissioned by RTÉ, The Irish Times, TG4 and Trinity College Dublin.
Almost half of people who said they gave Sinn Féin a first preference vote said housing and homelessness was the most important issue for them.
Health and cost of living were the biggest issues for Fianna Fáil voters, while economic stability, cost of living, and health were the biggest issues for Fine Gael voters.
According to the exit poll, the top three issues for the 1,250 voters questioned were housing/homelessness (28%), cost of living (19%) and health (17%).
The next most important issues were economic stability (9%), immigration (6%), climate change (4%), crime (2%), transport and roads (2%) and childcare (2%).
Some 6% of people listed ‘something else’ as their main concern.
On Morning Ireland, Jack Chambers wanted to point out the “very clear differences” between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.
He said the two parties “worked well together in the last four and a half years in government through very difficult times – Covid and the energy crisis and the war in Ukraine”.
However, he noted: “We ran different campaigns with different priorities and very much a different platform.
“We have emphasis on greater investment in public services, and we didn’t take the same approach when it came to reduction of taxation, for example. So there were very clear differences in policies.”
Boyd Barrett said he was “glad” when Sinn Féin asked their voters to give preferences to parties on the left on Wednesday, but he wishes it happened sooner.
“Two days out, to say we’re going to vote, we’re calling for second preferences and third preferences for People Before Profit and the Soc Dems.
“They should have done that earlier. And I think we would have had a different type of dynamic. And even now, I would say the left have to give people a sense of that alternative.”
RBB said the low turnout in many areas indicates some people didn’t see an alternative to Fianna Fáil and/or Fine Gael returning to power.
“The low turnout, lower turnout of working class areas, I suspect among young people, is because they didn’t see a clear alternative to the establishment.”
Speaking on the same programme, People Before Profit leader Richard Boyd Barrett said the exit poll showed that voters’ main concerns are housing, health and cost of living.
A large number of voters also chose the ‘other’ option (6%) when noting their concerns, RBB said he believes many people in this category were referring to Palestine.
“The moving of the dial, from a policy point of view, has actually been in the left direction,” he said.
“Whoever is in power will have to deliver on those things.”
Speaking on RTÉ’s Morning Ireland election special, Minister for Finance Jack Chambers said the outcome is “too close to call at this point”.
Opinion polls in recent days had put his Fianna Fáil party slightly ahead of Fine Gael and Sinn Féin.
However, last night’s exit poll, places FF slight behind SF and FG – although it’s all within the margin of error. (The exit poll puts SF on 21.1%, FG on 21% and FF on 19.5%.)
Speaking this morning, Chambers said his party is awaiting news of the “wider trend” and “regional breakdown”.
The minister said the regional trends will give a better sense of what way the seats will go. He praised Micheál Martin’s “positive” campaign and said FF is hopeful of returning to power.
“We’ve really strong candidates across the country who ran excellent grassroots campaigns.”
Happy Count Day, to all who celebrate.
Happy Count Day. pic.twitter.com/GDNvGgQamG
— Rachael English (@EnglishRachael) November 30, 2024
Pop quiz: Who said this, a staff member at a count centre or Count von Count?
“Greetings! I am The Count. They call me the Count because I love to count things.”
Answers on a postcard, please.
Has a politician ‘scraped through’ if they were elected in the later counts?
A political scientist from Trinity College Dublin says such a claim is “misleading”.
Gail McElroy told The Journal it doesn’t matter what count you get elected on.
“You get elected or you don’t, it’s not even a conversation which count you get elected on.
“It’s a very disingenuous debate and is irrelevant and misleading.”
Some more details from the Ipsos B&A exit poll commissioned by RTÉ, The Irish Times, TG4 and Trinity College Dublin.
Micheál Martin is most people’s preferred Taoiseach, according to the poll, followed closely by Mary Lou McDonald.
Most people polled (31%) want another FF-FG coalition, but others (22%) want a Sinn Féin-led coalition without FF or FG.
Exit Poll suggests that 35% of respondents want Micheál Martin leading the next government, followed by 34% support for Mary Lou McDonald, with Simon Harris trailing on 27% https://t.co/ymbwClNORP
— RTÉ News (@rtenews) November 30, 2024
Some 31% of people who took part in the Exit Poll want to see a FF-FG coalition form the next government, followed by 22% who want to see a Sinn Féin-led coalition without FF or FG https://t.co/afZC8mNHYe
— RTÉ News (@rtenews) November 30, 2024
Is there anything to be said for some more projections?
The aptly-named Irish Election Projections has this to say about transfers:
Some chatter around the in-party transfer figures in the exit poll and while on surface they look bad for FF and FG, if you adjust for the number of constituencies where they only have one candidate, it works out very similar to GE 2020. pic.twitter.com/GvAqhdsU00
— Irish Election Projections (@irishelectproj) November 30, 2024
In a follow-up post, the group said it “wouldn’t read too much into this at this stage, or the small fluctuations, beyond noting that it is similar to last time round”.
Here is a round-up of our Voices opinion pieces over the past few days:
What might the next Dáil look like? Ireland Votes has compiled some seat projections, based on the Ipsos B%A exit poll.
In their words, “a lot of collaboration” may be needed in the weeks (and months) ahead.
What do our Seat Projections - based on the Ipsos B&A Exit poll data - indicate for government formation?
— Ireland Votes (@Ireland_Votes) November 29, 2024
Well, as you can see, there may be a lot of collaboration needed in the weeks ahead...
Note: we applied a rule of 4 parties or less! https://t.co/anZMLjQUJa pic.twitter.com/VjOt4K1jP1
Voes in the constituency of Limerick City may be determined void before they are even counted, after it emerged candidates names did not appear in alphabetical order on some ballot papers, as required by legislation.
Clarity has been sought as to whether or not the votes will be counted at 9am today after the error on the ballot papers was noticed and first reported by the Limerick Post newspaper.
Section 88 of the Electoral Act 1992 *does* stipulate that candidates must be listed in the ballot in alphabetical order by surname
— Gavan Reilly (@gavreilly) November 29, 2024
Electoral law states that candidates must be listed on the ballot paper in alphabetical order, however Sinn Féin’s Maurice Quinlivan and Dean Quinn (The Irish People) were incorrectly placed ahead of Willie O’Dea (Fianna Fáil) and Elisa O’Donovan (Social Democrats), on some ballot papers.
The votes have been cast, but when will we know the results?
After a three-week campaign, the talking is over and the nation has spoken at the ballot box.
However, it will be some time before we know the results of the 2024 general election, Diarmuid Pepper explains here.
There are four extra constituencies and 14 additional Dáil seats up for grabs, compared to 2020.
Close to 700 candidates have been vying for votes across 43 constituencies to fill the 174 seats in what will be the largest ever Dáil Éireann.
We could be facing a slightly longer count than last time as a result.
A return of coalition based around Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael is likely if the exit poll results are borne out tomorrow, our political editor Christina Finn writes.
So now what?
With these figures, and noting the margin of error, it is pretty much deadlock.
“Government formation talks could prove tricky, but there is a path back to power for Simon Harris and Micheál Martin, if they choose it,” Finn writes.
First things first, the exit poll.
ICYMI last night, the three biggest parties are all tied on similar support, according to an exit poll commissioned by RTÉ, The Irish Times, TG4, Trinity College Dublin and carried out by Ipsos B&A.
The poll shows Sinn Féin on 21.1%, Fine Gael on 21% and Fianna Fáil on 19.5%.
It’s important to note that margin of error is plus or minus 1.4%.
The other parties are as follows:
Ipsos interviewed 5,018 people in 253 polling stations across Ireland immediately after they voted yesterday.
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