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THE GOVERNMENT IS outlined its intention to cuts taxes and increase spending every year from now until 2020 in an ambitious but light-on-detail Spring Economic Statement in the Dáil today. In what is seen by many as the opening salvo of the general election campaign, the opposition hit out at efforts to buy the next election.
Here are the main points of the Spring Economic Statement:
Here’s how it all unfolded:
Hello and welcome to our liveblog of the government’s Spring Economic Statement. I’m Hugh O’Connell and over the next few hours the coalition will be outlining its plans for tax cuts and spending increases over the next five years in statements to the Dáil.
Proceedings kick off at 2pm but before that we have Leaders’ Questions at 1.30pm, where Enda Kenny will be quizzed by opposition party leaders. Well be bringing you live coverage of that here and you can also watch proceedings in the livestream above.
Some people aren’t that excited about today, including most of the general public and opposition TDs :
Do you care about the Spring Statement? Let us know in the comments.
Speaking on RTÉ’s News at One, Transport Minister Paschal Donohoe claims that today’s Spring Statement is a “standard procedure”. Despite the fact we’ve never had a Spring Statement before. Ever.
The scene in the Dáil right now. Leaders’ Questions is about to get under way
Ceann Comhairle Seán Barret warns TDs to be “conscious” of the need to stick to the time limits so we can get the Spring Statement under way at 2pm.
Fianna Fáil’s Micheál Martin is raising the Siteserv issue and says the decision to allow KPMG investigate IBRC sales is a “political error”.
Meanwhile, some people are very excited altogether:
“A lot of guff has gone on publicly,” says Martin, who’s asks Enda Kenny if he an assure the Dáil that the activities on the Siteserv share register will be covered by the inquiry and that there will be “full transparency” in terms of the personnel involved.
Enda Kenny says that the interests of the government is for the taxpayer and that the facts in respect of the Siteserv sale should be made available as quickly as possible. He essentially says that a Commission of Investigation into the Siterserv controversy would take too long.
Enda Kenny says, if necessary, the government are quite prepared to legislate for a further independent analysis of this by the office of the C&AG.
He concludes with his usual potshot at Fianna Fáil: “The only reason that the board of IBRC were taking decisions on behalf of the taxpayer was because of the decision of your own government… which caused absolute economic mayhem.”
“But of course you conveniently forget about that,” Kenny concludes.
Martin shoots back by noting that Kenny and his party voted for the bank guarantee and asked for it to be extended.
Micheál Martin again asks why there was not an independent inquiry. Enda responds:
What Deputy Martin would like to thinks is there was some sort of cover-up.
Lots of shouting from across the chamber. Now we move on to Sinn Féin’s Gerry Adams, who is also asking about Siterserv. He says Kenny seems insistent on proceeding with a review that no one has any confidence in.
Adams asks Enda Kenny when Michael Noonan informed him of the Department of Finance concerns about goings on at IBRC. Kenny responds that Department kept him informed of the promissory note deal and plans to liquidate IBRC.
“I don’t have the date, but he kept us updated on the IBRC,” the Taoiseach says in a surprisingly brief answer.
Kenny to Adams:
I think, deep down, you have problems with the institutions of the State here.
Taoiseach is essentially reverting back to his usual form during Leaders’ Questions in the Dáil, ignoring questions to launch his customary partisan attacks.
Kenny notes that liquidation of IBRC saved “serious money” for the taxpayer. We now move on to Paul Murphy who is citing George Orwell’s Ministry of Truth… This should be interesting.
Paul Murphy also raising Siteserv issue and asks Taoiseach if the investigation meets the requirements Tánaiste laid out in Dáil last Thursday, that inquiry needed to be independent and carried out by a competent authority.
Paul Murphy asks if Michael Noonan should resign. Laughter in the Dáil. Enda Kenny says “that last retort” is hardly worth of an answer.
Meanwhile, this is happening:
Taoiseach repeats much of the answers he has already given to Gerry Adams and Micheál Martin.
Uh-oh: Ceann Comhairle Seán Barrett asks Paul Murphy to withdraw a remark that Michael Noonan deliberately misled the Dáil. Murphy says Noonan did. Barrett’s not happy and says that Murphy cannot make charges like that against any minister in the Dáil.
“I withdraw the ‘deliberate’,” Murphy says, before he then goes on to say that he “misled the Dáil”, exempting the word ‘deliberate’.
There’s a bit of a row breaking out now.
Murphy moves on and calls for a broad inquiry to the IBRC issue… “We need to go deep into the rabbit hole that is Siteserv,” he says.
Enda wraps up by saying a Commission of Investigation would lead opposition to claim that government was putting off finding out what happened until after the election.
And now for the Spring Economic Statement. Hold on tight.
Michael Noonan: Since taking office in 2011, the government has determined to fulfil the mandate given to us by Irish people, to repair economy and public finances, to give hope and confidence to our citizens of a better future. Scale of crisis has been unprecedented.
Noonan: Such a bright future is not guaranteed and is contingent on a continuation of policies and reforms introduced and being followed by this government. There are external risks, but choices taken in this house are important.
Noonan: The young people who have left are coming back and they will continue to do so. The public finances are under control. Debt levels to move down to European average.
As a result, we will be in a position to implement another expansionary budget this year and every year to 2020.
Noonan says the Irish economy will grow 4 per cent this year and has the capacity to expand by around 3.25 per cent every year up to 2020.
Noonan: A continuation of the current strategy will see two million people at work by the end of 2016. The employment lost during the downturn will be recovered by 2018 and there will be more people working in Ireland by 2020 than ever before.
Noonan: “Over the remainder of the decade we expect all sectors of there economy to contribute to growth an employment.”
The Minister for Finance goes on to outline growth in the area of tourism, foreign direct investment, International Finance Services, construction, agri-food, payment technologies and…. Irish Water.
Noonan: Irish Water will invest €5.5 billion between 2014 and 2021.
The investment is also required to prevent the massive wastage of water through leaks and to ensure a reliable safe water supply for all our citizens.
Noonan on mortgages, says it is the “single biggest debt most people will eve take on” and that government is “actively considering a range of options to strengthen the mortgage arrears framework”.
He says there will be an announcement on this “in the coming weeks” with a particular focus on enhancing the role of the Insolvency Service of Ireland, and the range of solutions through an insolvency arrangement.
Michael Noonan tells Dáil that government will have between €1.2 and €1.5 billion available for tax cuts and public spending in the next Budget in October. “The final scale of the space will become clearer closer to the Budget,” he says.
Noonan says that Fine Gael and Labour have agreed a 50:50 split between tax cuts and spending increases in Budget 2016.
Noonan says that reducing the State’s debt burden remain a key priority for government and points to measures already taken. He says that the government intends to offload State’s share in banking system.
The exit strategy about recovery of the full cost of the taxpayer’s investment in these institutions and sing the proceeds to further reduce the debt.
Noonan: “The sale of 25% of PTSB that concluded yesterday, further improves the position and I am now confident that all the taxpayers money invested in AIB, BOI and PTSB will be fully recovered.”
Michael Noonan now moves into ‘attack the opposition’ territory:
“The forecasts for future Budgets are contingent on continued sensible economic and budgetary policies being pursued. Prudent policies support growth, support job creation and generate the taxes and the fiscal space for further investment in the economy.
“The scale of the fiscal space available in later years will be determined by the growth and if the wrong policies are pursued, the economy will not grow and the fiscal space will not materialise.”
Michael Noonan escalates attacks on the opposition parties:
In fact the principal domestic risk to Ireland’s continued economic growth is the tax and spend policies of the Opposition.
Unfortunately the policies proposed by the opposition will do exactly this. They will increases taxes, increase expenditure, increase debt, lower growth rates, reduce tax buoyancy and cost jobs. The policies of the opposition will again cause the economy to spiral downwards.
You were wondering about the corporation tax issue, weren’t you? You were worried it might be raised, weren’t you? Well, worry not:
The 12.5% corporation tax rate will stay. This is a red line for the Government.
Michael Noonan:
A Cheann Comhairle, we must never again repeat the mistakes that left Ireland on the verge of bankruptcy in 2010 and resulted in a lost decade and such hardship in the lives of so many people.
Michael Noonan concludes by saying he looks forward to contributions from Brendan Howlin and the opposition parties.
Órla Ryan will guide you through Howlin’s statement now…
Brendan Howlin is up now:
Today is about recognising the point we have reached in our recovery,
and then setting out the context for Budget 2016. Today is not an
alternative to that Budget; it is a point-in-time assessment of where we
stand now and the challenges ahead.
Having come through the worst economic shock in our history as a
State, our primary focus must be, and will be, on sustainability. The
Minister for Finance and I share one overriding priority. That is to
ensure what we endured as a nation over the last seven years cannot
happen again. We will not throw away the hard won progress we have
made as a country.
Howlin: “The economic crash has taught us that nobody owes Ireland a living. We received emergency funding at a time when the markets stopped lending to us. We owe it to ourselves to ensure we do not allow a return to this position again. That is why we have sought to broaden the tax base to prevent the over-dependence on property and transaction taxes, which contributed to the crisis in the State’s finances.”
Howlin: “It became fashionable for a while to decry this country and its potential. But the turnaround that we have achieved in our economy is indicative of its fundamental strengths. We are now the fastest growing economy in Europe. Our recovery from this crisis has been as remarkable as our original descent into it.”
Howlin: “We have learnt just how vulnerable we can be to a global downturn exacerbated by domestic policy mistakes. Our purpose into the future should be to mitigate these threats where we can, to build resilience, and to focus on how we can grow our economy.”
Some light reading for the opposition:
Howlin: “Budget 2015 marked a very welcome point in our recovery. It was the first time since 2009 that reductions in expenditure were not required to meet our fiscal targets.”
Now – as outlined in today’s fiscal forecasts – as we prepare for Budget 2016 we will look to increase gross voted current expenditure by an additional €600 to €750 million. This increase will allow government to deal with underlying demographic pressures in key areas such as Social Protection, Education and Health. It will also allow us to target enhancements in key public services.
“As a proportion of the overall economy, government spending is roughly the same size it was in 2001.”
People are talking about a broad range of issues today:
Howlin turns his attention to pensions:
“We currently spend over €6.5 billion annually on pension provision. Over 400,000 people are in receipt of one of the two main State pension
schemes, the contributory and non-contributory State pensions. The cost of paying for these two schemes alone is projected to increase by €200 million per year out to 2026.
Let me be clear. There is no threat to the pension. This Government is committed to pension provision and to sustaining the value of those pensions. It is because of this commitment that, in our discussions on spending, it is important to consider future trends.
“Not enough of our citizens are planning for the future to supplement State pension entitlements. It is in this context that the Tánaiste has set up a working group to examine the pensions issue.”
Howlin on education:
“In education, the number of school children is set to increase every year over the next six years. By 2021, we will need an extra 3,500 teachers at primary and secondary level to provide education to an additional 50,000 pupils. The number of third level students is also projected to increase, by 20,000 in the same period.
“These are positive developments. Our economic future is bright as our highly educated workforce expands. But we need to plan to ensure our public finances can meet the challenge this represents.”
Here’s what the chair of the Young Greens makes of it all:
We were disappointed by this too, frankly.
Howlin on jobs:
“We take the view that reducing unemployment remains the best route to recovery. It increases the tax base and allows investment in public
services. By continuing to get people back to work we make our recovery sustainable.
Irish people want to work. This has been a central focus of this Government’s efforts. We are now starting to reap the benefits – employment has increased in every quarter for over two years and we expect this trend to continue. Almost 100,000 new jobs have been
created since the low-point in mid-2012.
“We are achieving success through a range of measures, including the Action Plan for Jobs and investment in key capital projects such as
social housing.”
After all the build up to today, not everyone is impressed:
Howlin on public service pay:
“Earlier today, the Government agreed to my proposal to enter into discussions with the trade unions on the issue of public service pay. The pay reductions are governed by financial emergency legislation that requires me to annually review the status of that emergency. As
the economy improves, the prospect of a successful legal challenge to the financial emergency increases. It is prudent therefore to plan for an orderly unwinding of the emergency provisions. Not to do so would be foolhardy. I don’t intend to have those discussions here. But let me say this.
All public servants have had their pay reduced significantly. Over the last two years, they have seen the beginnings of pay awards in the
private sector. As the economy recovers, we need to ensure that remuneration and the cost of the Public Service more generally are managed to ensure that they remain sustainable.
“Of course, without the productivity gains made in recent years, we would not be in a position to discuss unwinding the FEMPI measures. Given their value to the State, the unwinding of those measures will take time. To do anything else would jeopardise the public finances again – something we will not do.”
Seriously, where can we get these?
Howlin has a jab at Fianna Fáil:
“I want to repeat that we must not allow this country to return to the devastating cycle of boom-and-bust that has been the
hallmark of previous governments. We must learn the lessons of the past decade and not repeat the mistakes that brought us to ruin.
“Our vision and plans for renewed prosperity will not be built on the sand of short-term and unsustainable increases in Government
spending. It will be built on the rock of fiscal responsibility and investment in the productive capacity of our people.
We cannot and will not throw money at problems. Expenditure growth must continue to be linked to performance and reform. Any increases in expenditure and incomes must be in line with growth and productivity. Decision-making must be evidence-based, with a strategic focus on improved outcomes for citizens.
Ceann Comhairle tries to hurry things up:
If you have your chats outside please, I’d appreciate it.
Fianna Fáil finance spokesperson Michael McGrath: People will be scratching their heads wondering what all the Spring Statement fuss was about.
McGrath asks Noonan and Howlin why they didn’t say they will scrap the banks’ veto in personal insolvency deals, or do more for the 1,000 children who will sleep in emergency accommodation in Dublin tonight.
Former Labour TD Róisín Shortall agrees with McGrath
McGrath is unhappy that local property tax was not addressed in statement.
On another housing note, McGrath said Noonan came into the Dáil today “pumping his chest” and saying variable mortgage rates are an issue for the banks, not him.
“You were dragged into the debate, minister, kicking and screaming”.
Here’s what former junior minister Lucinda Creighton thinks of it all (Hint: she’s not impressed):
The crowd thinned out once Noonan’s and Howlin’s contributions were made.
BREAKING
Oh wait, hang on…
Hmmmm…
#ThrowbackTuesday
McGrath’s particularly unhappy about one issue:
Fianna Fáil’s Spokesperson on Public Expenditure and Reform Sean Fleming thinks this is an exercise in ministers “congratulating each other”.
Ahem.
Click this link for a mystery price.
Pearse Doherty first up for Sinn Féin, says the government is not serious about political reform.
Doherty: A fair recovery would get rid of the “unfair home tax” and water charges, and stop shifting the income tax burden onto lower-earning families.
“I understand your big day isn’t going down as well as you planned,” Doherty tells Noonan and Howlin, adding that Sinn Féin would do the “radical” thing of keeping its promises if the party came to power.
That’s it from me now, I’ll hand you back to Hugh O’Connell.
Enjoy the rest of #SpringStatement day! – ÓR
Hello again everyone. Hugh O’Connell here. Sinn Féin’s finance spokesperson Pearse Doherty is in the middle of having a considerable go at the coalition.
While Pearse continues, it’s fair to say that the general consensus is that the Spring Economic Statement was incredibly light on detail and underwhelming when compared to the considerable build-up.
Right now, the opposition attempts to paint this as a PR exercise are likely to have more impact than anything the government said in the Dáil today. We’ll have full analysis on the site later today.
“Fiscal vandalism dressed up as fiscal rectitude.” – Pearse Doherty‘s assessment of the Spring Statement who describes today’s announcement as “McCreevy-style with a Limerick accent”.
In a break with tradition during recent Budget speeches, Michael Noonan and Brendan Howlin have remained in the Dáil chamber for the opposition speeches. But it’s fair to say they’d rather be elsewhere.
Here’s a statement from Brendan Howlin on plans to talk to trade unions about public sector pay and unwinding the emergency measures taken during the crisis. The talks will begin in May.
Mary Lou McDonald, Sinn Féin’s public expenditure spokesperson, speaking now, says that spring statement has been full “grandiose claims that have amounted to nothing”. She goes on to quote Jonathan Swift:
“Blessed are those who expect nothing for they shall be never be disappointed.”
Mary Lou says that the government should have abolished water charges and the property tax. They didn’t, you’ll be surprised to hear.
The Spring Statement served to prove that the Government are satisfied with their performance; their self-appraisal has delivered an A+. But today’s report will do little to assuage public concerns about growing inequality, under-investment in services and infrastructure, or tax reforms that disproportionately favour society’s wealthiest.
Mary Lou notes that prescription charges – which the government pledged to abolish – have risen from 50 cent, when it came to office, to €2.50 at present.
At this stage, there could be a whole slideshow in the faces that Micheal Noonan and Brendan Howlin have been pulling at the opposition today:
See what he did there? See it?
As Mary Lou McDonald finishes up, Noonan and Howlin leave the chamber before the Technical Group begins its response. Sinn Féin’s Padraig MacLochlainn raises hell over this, saying it shows disrespect to independent TDs.
“The ministers have been here since two o’clock, I think they are entitled to a comfort break at least,” the current Dáil chair, Olivia Mitchell, says.
Responding first for the Technical Group, independent TD Catherine Murphy welcomes the economic growth and job creation (that’s probably the first time anyone not from the government has said something positive about today) but adds:
The economy has been stabilised at the expense of society.
She goes onto criticise the lack of political reform.
Catherine Murphy: We’re still very much in the ha’penny place when it comes to broadband provision.
Catherine Murphy: “I think it’s criminal that people are continuing to pay for the Anglo debts. We’re still paying every penny back – just over a longer time.”
Catherine Murphy returns to the Siterserv issue, which she has championed. She is incredulous at the fact there are no notes of two meetings between former IBRC chief Mike Aynsley and ex-Department of Finance sec gen John Moran.
Catherine Murphy concludes and Clare Daly is up now, she says that coalition backbenchers are embarrassed by the government’s announcement today:
There hasn’t been a single one of them present for the jamboree, they’re a bit scarlet.
With that we’re going to conclude our liveblog today. Dáil debate on the Spring Statement continues until around 5.30pm.
Michael Noonan and Brendan Howlin are holding a press conference at 7pm. We’ll be livetweeting that on @TJ_Politics and bringing you more reaction later today.
Hugh O’Connell signing off.
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Count me in, science over conspiracy any day.
@Hear me now: Evidence, I think…
@Hear me now: Mostly because the “alternative view” almost always comes from a 50 year old still living in their mothers and getting all their opinions formed by what they see on Facebook.
@Hear me now: try facts
@Hear me now: when its baseless.
@Richard Right: Richard, have a decco at Facebook, have a read of Twitter, I am a trainer, if I need my car fixed I go to a mechanic, if my roof leaks I go to a roofer, if I we have a pandemic I go to a scientist and then a doctor,
@Valentine Kane: try not labelling people because they don’t agree with you. Fully vaxed BTW. Just don’t think if a person ‘chooses’ not to take a ‘voluntary’ vaccine that they are a conspiracy theorist…try being a bit more open minded perhaps!
@Hear me now: There’s a big difference between respecting someones right to have an opinion and respecting the opinion. If someones opinion is categorically wrong and flies in the face of all available evidence, it does not deserve respect.
@Francis Devenney: you can say that they are categorically wrong, really!
@Mjhint: Science actively encourages dissent if it is evidence based and can withstand peer review. Every scientist from lab technicians to Nobel laureates would love to be the one to overturn an existing paradigm. It’s the very nature of science question.
@Richard Right: the usual “may nots” “doesn’t”. The vaccine reduces transmission of Delta by 40%. Take your medicine lad.
@Hear me now: Can you not see when something is categorically wrong?
@Richard Right: incorrect vaccines do stop transmission.
Firstly they stop about 50-75% of infections, and a person who isn’t infected can not spread.
Secondly if a breakthrough infection does occur, the length of time a transmissible viral load is present for is around a third of what it is in an unvaccinated person
@Valentine Kane: There are 1000s of scientists and doctors around the globe not being given airtime – that advise that continuous mass vaccinating into a pandemic will just keep squeezing the virus, forcing it to mutate quicker than it otherwise would have. And a lot of them are also saying you have no way of knowing the long term effects of these shots. It’s understandable that people with underlying conditions / vulnerable people might have little alternative. But to force those things indefinitely on healthy women, children, and men is wrong.
@Alpha Centauri: and what was their conclusion and alternative plan? Let nature takes its course and survival of the fittest?
@Richard Right: it’s not a silver bullet I wish it was but it does help the fight against the virus what is your alternative instead of bashing vaccines love to hear it
@Alpha Centauri: What proportion of the scientific community do they make up? 1% 2%? If I have 100 mechanics look at my car and 98 say “It’s a leak in the steering rack” and 1 says “It’s the quantum flux capacitor and” and 1 says “There’s nothing wrong, it’s a plot by big steering fluid to make money and control you, you only think the steering is heavy because you’ve been conditioned to believe THEM” Who do you think I should believe?
@Francis Devenney: Also mutation is random. The vast majority are neutral some are deleterious and a very small amount are advantageous in meeting an environmental pressure. They are not driven by environmental pressures.
@Martin Greene:Not true, The members of NPHET are
Dr Tony Holohan, chief medical officer at the Department of Health.
Prof Colm Bergin, infectious diseases consultant at St James’s Hospital and Professor of Medicine at Trinity College Dublin.
Paul Bolger, director of Department of Health resources division.
Dr Eibhlin Connolly, deputy chief medical officer at the Department of Health.
Tracey Conroy, assistant secretary in the acute hospitals division of the Department of Health.
Dr John Cuddihy, interim director of the Health Protection Surveillance Centre (HPSC).
Dr Cillian de Gascun, director of the National Virus Reference Laboratory in UCD.
Colm Desmond, assistant secretary for corporate legislation, mental health, drugs policy and food safety division in the Department of Health.
@Valentine Kane: good boy.
@Francis Devenney: clearly…it’s amazing you have all the definite answers here!
@Hear me now: because science is backed up by facts and research, alternative opinions are just opinions which as we know are like a$$ho1e5. Everybody has one
@Francis Devenney: not according to Kingston mills on the tonight show 3rd September. No immunologist and not 1 practicing scientists on NPHET team
@Richard Right: the vaccine was released pre delta variant… The booster is shown to really increase immunity against it and it shows now in Israel
@D.Storm: Just the other day you tweeted: “Typical lying jēw”. You can feck right off.
Does it stop transmission? If not, why would a young healthy person take it? Honest question
@Man incognito: if you need to ask that question at this stage you don’t deserve a booster..
@Man incognito: An “honest question” I’m sure you’ve asked on many platforms. You continue to ask it and claim it’s honest even though you’ve been given the answer a hundred times.
@Man incognito: It reduces death rates. Latvia has 66% vaccine rate & 266 deaths per million. We have 93% vaccine rate of eligible groups and 15 deaths per million. Nothing wrong with trying to reduce death rates further.
@Man incognito: Among the seriously ill needing ICU treatment, are some young people with no known underlying conditions that haven’t taken the vaccine. If you get a high viral load of Delta variant without any protection, it doesn’t matter how healthy you are, you can end up in serious bother. Thats why they should take it. That and to protect the health service from avoidable admissions to hospital.
@Michael Byrne: First time asking
@John Walsh: Of course. And its great that this is available for the vulnerable and for whoever wishes to get one. My thinking is that there might be a stigma against those who choose not to take it
@Man incognito: I streamed a funeral of a 45 year old yesterday. His heart gave out after a serious COVID infection.
We had a memorial 2 weeks ago to the 9 people in our Indian office that died, youngest was 22 (which completely shocked me).
I’m currently staying at my parents. They’ve not yet had their booster. I would prefer to ensure my actions don’t negatively impact them as we know that death from covid is higher is elderly and vaccinated versus young and not vaccinated.
But we also know that young and unvaccinated are a high proportion of ICU beds (they are mostly surviving though).
So yeah, I will judge people that CHOOSE not to be vaccinated.
@Man incognito: “Does it stop transmission?”
Yes.
“Conclusions In conjunction with safety reports, this study demonstrates the effectiveness of a third vaccine dose in both reducing transmission and severe disease and indicates the great potential of curtailing the Delta variant resurgence by administering booster shots.”
Refs:
Levine-Tiefenbrun, M., Yelin, I., et al. 2021. Viral Loads of Delta-Variant SARS-CoV2 Breakthrough Infections Following Vaccination and Booster with the BNT162b2 Vaccine, https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.08.29.21262798.
@David Jordan: to play devil’s advocate. It’s great to provide a paper of a study that shows reduced viral loads yet there is a real life, real world test ongoing in Gibraltar with 100% of the populace being double jabbed and a sizable portion being boostered. Transmission rates are pretty high there(death rates are not great showing the effectiveness on that side)…I am not anti vax by any stretch, I’ve both shots alongside already having covid at the start of the year, However I don’t buy the reducing transmission piece all the same.
@Peazel: The infection rate is now decreasing in Gibraltar due to the booster rollout, nearly half the population given boosters in 5 weeks, you’ll soon see infection rates fall to zero when boosters reach ~80% of the population.
https://www.google.com/search?channel=crow5&client=firefox-b-d&q=gibraltar+covid
@Peazel: (death rates are not great showing the effectiveness on that side)
I think you’re watching bit too much of Dr. John Campbell, I found his recent Gibraltar update a bit too pessimistic. I posted this, buried deep in the comments all lonely and not upvoted:
Vaccine Fatality Rate 0.15% v’s No Vaccines Fatality Rate 2.79% (Ratio 18.6; 2,645 infections and 4 deaths v’s 3,159 infection and 88 deaths). I would not call this a failure.
@David Jordan: sorry I wrote that incorrectly. I mean to say death rates are not too high which shows the effectiveness of the vaccine against death as opposed to my point of the effectiveness around transmission. I also caught Campbells video bit I took that he also agrees that death rates are not as high as previous waves when the vaccination rate was low. However, on your point about transmission, I hope you are correct and we see a drop. However, couldn’t a drop in transmission also be attributed to the population being exposed to covid naturally (even if vaccinated)?
@David Jordan: 2.79% is really really high. That would have killed 220M world wide in the absence of a vaccine.
@Man incognito: there is and should be a stigma against those who can get vaccinated but don’t.
And so the merry go round starts turning again. Now it will be very mild vaccine immunity for about 6 months; followed by the discriminatory vaccine passports being upgraded to a 3 shot requirement when most of the country gets their 3rd jab; then followed by another big spike of cases next winter. And so on, and so on; the Big Pharma money machine keeps on churning. Then rinse and repeat. Start again! When are we going to wake up in this country, and smell the coffee?
@Liam Happe: Do you also think the flu vaccine which requires annual boosters is part of that? Nothing new with vaccines requiring boosters, that tends to be the way they actually work.
@Heather Knowles: Think the difference there is “annual” boosters for flu, not getting shots every 3-4 months.
@Andy Dunn: The booster shot is expected to last for 9 to 10 months and possibly longer, this is antibody immunity.
Also, the decline in antibodies, see after 3-4 month after initial vaccination only affects immunity to infection, CD4+ Killer T Cells and Memory B cells last much longer and protect against severe illness.
Some experts disagree with giving boosters to everyone, they point out that most people (except the elderly and immunocompromised) are still protected by durable long-lasting immune system that prevents severe symptoms.
“By analyzing the antibody levels, researchers have concluded that the third shot could be effective for 9 – 10 months, or even longer, the researchers predicted.”
@Heather Knowles: if you choose not to get the flu jab you can still lead a normal life…
@Liam Happe: Hard to smell the coffee when you’ve already drank the Kool-Aid, like you’ve done yourself Liam.
@Liam Happe: can’t smell the coffee when you have Covid. Seriously though, this is an unprecedented viral pandemic. The future is unknown so everybody doing the best they can. The jabs have reduced deaths, there nay be more required as this is unprecedented.
Yes big pharma making ridiculous amounts of money is crazy and that will have to change. There will be laws against patents for solutions to pandemics. BUT it’s early days and we need to work on vaccines.
@Liam Happe: can’t smell the coffee when you have Covid. Seriously though, this is an unprecedented viral pandemic. The future is unknown so everybody doing the best they can. The jabs have reduced deaths, there may be more required as this is unprecedented.
Yes big pharma making ridiculous amounts of money is crazy and that will have to change. There will be laws against patents for solutions to pandemics. BUT it’s early days and we need to work on vaccines.
@Liam Happe: what is your alternative ?
Please don’t say “Learn to live with it” , that means nothing
@David Jordan: We were also told Pfizer vaccine would be effective for up to 9 months. Look how that worked out.
@Karen Ní Dhochartaigh: there is zero relationship between covid and flu…. They are not the same…. Covid kills u by totally destroying your lungs
where do these jabs end? get vaxed, few months later booster, few months after another booster and so on so forth. recommended for all over 16.
@Macca1986: Waiting in line outside Croke Park yesterday in freezing cold for nearly 3 hrs with an appointment to get a booster jab is madness. HSE should get their act together it was a disgrace. No social distancing either a magnet for a virus infection hundreds of people on top of each other.
@Joe Johnson: isn’t it up to the individual to make sure they are socially distant though? Even if there were no markings people could have been proactive and stood apart.
@Sam Harms: It was freezing for 3 hours and as soon as people got under the cover of the stand they were penned in together like sheep for the last hour. Nothing they could do. Just as well it wasn’t raining.
@Macca1986: influenza vaccines are yearly, what’s the issue if same will apply for Covid vaccines?
@Stephen Kearon: trying to push them on all individuals is the issue plus at moment it’s even few months not yearly. vast majority of young people don’t take the flu jab but they’re not stopped from partaking in outlets of society.
@Macca1986: they reckon 9-10 months with this booster. Hopefully that will stretch to annual. Flu and Covid are different diseases so no comparison.
@GrumpyAulFella: exactly but you still shouldn’t be pushing a vaccine on everybody to partake in society. “they reckon” you said. nobody knows what’s around the corner.
@Macca1986: not sure what the alternative is to everybody not protecting themselves and others with this thing.
@GrumpyAulFella: get on with life and live it. the day is gone where you’re thinking of others in everything u do. many now will get up each day and do what they want to do and whatever makes them happy.
And an opt out for those with hybrid immunity?
Oh wait we don’t actually follow the science we just pretend to.
I’m good, thanks.
Folks lining up for shot#3. At what point will people say hang on a second do you think?
@Colum Cusack: it will be one a year eventually but there’ll be improvements next year with oral medication also so the whole process should become simpler. Science never stops.
@Colum Cusack: no different from a yearly flu or pneumonia jab or from any other medication one needs to take regularly to stay healthy. If 6 montly or annual boosters are needed to avoid Covid Roulette so be it.
What about the 50s. Looks like we are forgotten!
@Maura: I think 50s were already included in the group for the booster. Now the recommendation has been extended to other ages groups.
May as well be injecting us with water if this south African variant is suppose to be as bad as it is
@James: The Booster shot is expected to increase immunity to variants, including the new SA variant. Te booster mimics super immunity, seen in people vaccinated months after an infection.
The extended, many month gap, between doses makes the immune system think the following:
“Oh s****t, this virus is not going away, it’s feckin seasonal now, better make long-lasting CD4+ Killer T and Memory B Cells because I’ll be dealing with this next year. It will probably mutate too, so make immune cells that can identify variants.”
A one off infection (or vaccination) generates a temporary immunity, the immune system fights if off and relaxes. But a repeated exposure, many months apart, makes the immune system realise the virus is seasonal, it’s not going away. So it then prepares a long term plan of attack. The long term immune system kicks in. The immune system is also a nerd.
“A team co-led by Andrés Finzi, a virologist at the University of Montreal, Canada, found that people who received this regimen had SARS-CoV-2 antibody levels similar to those in people with hybrid immunity[10]. These antibodies could neutralize a swathe of SARS-CoV-2 variants — as well as the virus behind the 2002–04 SARS epidemic.”
Callaway, E., 2021. COVID super-immunity: one of the pandemic’s great puzzles. Nature, 598(7881), pp.393-394.
@David Jordan: Thanks for all your efforts today to fight all the people spreading disinformation and “Just Asking Questions”. The Journal should really be policing these better and deleting some, but I suspect that it is not in their profit incentive to do so.
“If a person has had laboratory confirmed Covid-19 infection after completing their primary vaccine course, the booster should be delayed for at least six months after they were diagnosed” …………………..why?
@John Egan: because they have a good level of immunity after actually having had the virus, immunity that lasts around 6 months…. How do people not understand these things yet, it’s been almost two years.
@John Egan: natural immunity during that period I assume?
@Hairy Teeth: Like understanding that natural attained immunity has been proven to be far much stronger and lasting barrier than the vaccines? Was there a six-month warning for the initial vaccine? No.
Natural immunity plus your two dose regimen have been shown to infer long long lasting immunity with regards to both Memory B and Killer T cells alongside high levels and even increasing levels of antibodies.
The government are either too busy running around like headless chickens to create a bespoke policy regarding the sizable minority of folks in this bracket or at worst are acting carelessly with our money in buying more vaccine doses than needed for this magic third shot.
@Peazel: how many vaccine doses are needed? Is it possible to have too many as recoverers slip out of natural immunity every day?
Get ready to feel like shi#e for 48 hours
Not 100% correct: “no-one in these newly approved age cohorts has yet reached the recommended gap since the second dose of a two-dose vaccine”
For those who were deemed higher risk and got vaxxed earlier than their cohort initially, but are not quite as unwell/at risk now (thankfully), are already 6 months past…
They should just invite for a third vax based on 6 months going forward, they have everyone details on file so they do know when people were vaccinated…
It’s been 5 months and still no booster notification…
@Jane Alford: Same, six months ago and nary a text yet.
Why can’t we comment on Germany?
The health minister has.
thanks China
Here we go again ,68 and still waiting for booster ,m
Moooore jabs mooooooore.
What about the 50-59 year olds? Many had the Jansen vaccine
@Helena Flynn: those who had the J&J vaccine will be eligible for the booster after 3 months
@Stephen Kearon: had my j&j in july. not heard anything yet.
@Helena Flynn: They haven’t done the over 60’s yet.
Then why are Chemists not giving booster again slow off the Mark by those not giving go ahead.
Also my GP still only doing over 60s ..
@James Johnson: Some chemists are giving vaccine, mine booked for tomorrow.
wheres the 50 to 59 booster who mostly got one shot vaccine? or did I miss that ?
That headline is confusing, did pregnant women not get jabbed already..?
They haven’t started on the 50s yet have they?
Boost me up Skotty
Some pharmacies are giving vaccines, mine booked for tomorrow.
That headline is confusing, did pregnant women not get jabbed already?
Can someone tell me how much vaccine we have in storage since winding down a few months ago and the deliveries since then?
have your say