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WINNING A US presidential election takes years, billions of dollars and relentless determination. It also requires crunching a lot of numbers.
The victor must get to the magic number of 270 electoral college votes – but just trying to anticipate the result is a complicated exercise in adding, subtracting and combining.
That’s because the US election – taking place on Tuesday – is not an exercise in direct democracy where a nationwide popular vote determines the result through a simple majority.
Candidates must instead win a majority of the electoral college votes assigned to the 50 states.
Those who win a state’s popular vote are apportioned the state’s electors, the number of which is roughly in line to the size of its population.
Except in Maine and Nebraska – which distribute electors through proportional systems — candidates earn electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis.
With a population of 38.8 million, California has 55 electoral votes, while Montana – population one million – has only three.
A total of 538 electoral votes are in play, corresponding to the total number of elected representatives in Congress (435 members of the House and 100 senators) plus three for the US capital Washington, DC.
Technically, it is those electors who elect the president and vice president in a formal rubber stamp vote on 19 December.
To win the keys to the White House, candidates need a simple majority of electoral votes – 270.
And if history is any indicator, the path is far clearer for the Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton than for her Republican rival Donald Trump.
That’s because 18 states – providing a total of 242 electoral votes – have consistently voted for Democrats since 1992.
Another 13 states have picked Republicans over the same period, but they weigh in with only 102 votes.
Six more states appear to be firmly in Trump’s camp despite their votes shifting in the past.
The outcome in the remaining dozen “swing states” is more uncertain, and that’s where Clinton and Trump are focusing almost all their campaigning.
The more electors a state has, the more crucial its role, led by Florida with 29 electoral votes, Pennsylvania with 20 and Ohio with 18 – places the candidates continually visit.
Potentially, candidates could also forge a path to 270 by winning enough small states such as Nevada, Iowa and New Hampshire – or by winning a state that’s historically voted for the opposing camp.
The experts are taking all those factors into account as they explore multiple possible combinations – adding Ohio, subtracting Iowa, flipping a Democratic state here or a Republican one there.
Despite all the variations, many believe Florida – the mother of swing states – is the key to the election.
Without it, winning will be ‘very difficult’ for Trump, his campaign manager Kellyanne Conway has admitted.
Here’s a list of the major swing states, the number of electoral votes and the latest BBC poll of polls through 4 November in a four-way race – including the outsiders, Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green candidate Jill Stein.
29 electoral votes
Trump has 46% support, Clinton 45%
20 electoral votes
Clinton at 47%, Trump at 43%
18 electoral votes
Trump at 46%, Clinton at 43%
16 electoral votes
Trump at 48%, Clinton at 42%
15 electoral votes
Clinton at 46%, Trump at 46%
13 electoral votes
Clinton at 47%, Trump at 42%
11 electoral votes
Trump at 47%, Clinton at 44%,
Nine electoral votes
Clinton at 43%, Trump at 41%
Six electoral votes
Trump at 42%, Clinton at 40%
Six electoral votes
Trump 46%, Clinton 44%
Four electoral votes
Clinton 44%, Trump 41%
Utah is also proving interesting despite having voted Republican since 1968. Forty-year-old independent Evan McMullin, a Mormon and former CIA officer who entered the race in August, is running close on Trump’s heels.
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Can you all seriously stop thinking about the parents for one moment and think of the six kids.
Who cares if the parents messed up dramatically time and time again. SERIOUSLY LIKE!
THIS IS NOT ABOUT THE PARENTS AND THEIR PROBLEMS!!!
This is about six kids and that is it.
If you don’t get that then I really don’t know that to say.
I can close my eyes and smile when I think of the wonderful Christmas’s I have had thanks to my mum and dad. Most of us can.
IS IT TO MUCH TO ASK that for one the lot of you shut up about your politics etc and think of six kids and how magical we can make their Christmas #itsnotaboutme
Well said Bia Maith, and fair play to you. The world needs more compassionate people like you. It is about the children, it’s Christmas for God’s sake!
You will be helping to give these children some happy Christmas memories and that’s a wonderful gift. I’m so sorry about your Mother by the way, she obviously did a great job bringing you up! Wishing you a very happy Christmas and all the best for 2015.
Can I put money into your bank account towards getting the kids are present? It won’t be delivered if I ordere something and have it delivered
I wonder how this family is homeless ? like where are they now and up until Christmas day and where will they be living after Christmas ??
Sorry but 910 euro a month alone for 7 kids from child benefit , on top of the social that her and her partner are receiving per week ( assuming the are not working ) , they would also be entitled to rent allowance too , am I missing something here ??
Finding a house under the rent allowance limit is next to impossible right now. As for the rest I can not comment on.
@jiminy, Vincent and others. I’ve a great idea. Why doesn’t the state just take the children of those who have fallen on hard times into care?There must be loads of industrial schools lying empty. Hardly surprising we have such an appalling history when it comes to women and children when attitudes have barely changed.
Very good offer for that family. I don’t understand how he wises to remain in secret and yet contact the journal
A lot of negative comments! Wonder why that is? Negativity in the mind, people you should be more positive. May lead to depression. PMA people, PMA.
what happens then?
have your say