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FINE GAEL AND Labour could be within touching distance of re-election, according to a new poll carried out for TheJournal.ie in the final days of the campaign.
Fine Gael is on 32% with Labour on 8%, giving the coalition parties a combined 40% that would be close to the 42% or 43% it would need in order to be in a position to return to government.
However, while Fine Gael is well on course to be the largest party in the 32nd Dáil, much will depend on Labour’s willingness to go back into government if it returns only a handful of TDs, as the poll suggests it might.
The poll was conducted for this website by market research students at the Dublin Institute of Technology (DIT) who interviewed a random sample of over 1,000 adults between last Friday and Monday.
The poll indicates that Fine Gael, which has averaged 30% in the final opinion polls of the campaign, is on course to do slightly better on election day.
Although Enda Kenny’s party will be 4 percentage points down from its 2011 result, it is on course to be the largest party. However it will be significantly short of the 76 seats it won five years ago.
The poll has Labour well down on its 2011 result when it achieved 19% and took a historic 37 Dáil seats. On 8% in this poll, it’s unclear how many seats this would secure for Joan Burton’s party but less than 15 could make it difficult to return to government.
Fine Gael’s other possible coalition partner, Fianna Fáil, is on 20%, an improvement on the 17% support it secured in 2011 when it returned a historically low 20 seats.
Micheál Martin’s party has enjoyed a strong campaign with many expecting it to outperform the opinion polls on election day and boost its seat numbers significantly.
Fianna Fáil figures have repeatedly ruled out doing any form of post-election deal with Fine Gael and maintained that it wants to be the largest party and lead the next government.
Sinn Féin is on 15%, five percentage points higher than its 2011 result when it secured 14 seats.
The party is widely expected to increase its number of Dáil seats, but it has said repeatedly it will not go into government unless it is the largest party.
Independents are on 14%, while among the smaller parties the newly-formed Social Democrats come out on top with 4%.
This comes as the SocDems expect to win a handful of seats off the back of the strong performance of one of its leaders, Stephen Donnelly, in the second TV debate.
The Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit party is on 2%, as is Renua Ireland. The Green Party, which lost all six of its Dáil seats in 2011, is also on 2%.
The students interviewed a random sample of 1,014 adults between Friday 19 and Monday 22 February.
Interviews were conducted across the country using a random digit-dialing method involving a mix of both mobile and landline numbers which were used to ensure a random selection.
The results were weighted by age, gender, region and social grade and likelihood to vote according to election records.
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Dream on Hugh hahaha
Roll on Friday
Why do you always assume anybody who’s against your beloved Fine Gael is a ‘shinner’? I strongly resent Fine Gael, as many people do, but I also wouldn’t even entertain the idea of Sinn Fein being in power. It’s like the political equivalent of screaming ‘racist!’ at any opportunity, but as I’m typing this I’m remembering that you are indeed one of those people too.
Copy and pasting libellous comments you’ve made previously into multiple posts.
Cherrypicking sentences from a report, then chopping the beginning off said sentence and adding your own bit to try make it convincing.
Misassigning quotes to more senior police officers then the people who actually made them.
Spoof after spoof after spoof, wash rinse repeat.
And now, replying to the most popular post with something unrelated, so you can piggyback your guff on its coattails.
What a good little minion you are dermo. There’ll be an extra biccie with your afternoon tea. Say hi to all the gang in theh fraperoom for us. Guess the next generation of FG will be just as bad as this one.
Can you address any of my points shinnertroll, or is abuse all you’ve got?
Soon as you make a point worth addressing dermo, I’ll do so.
But I won’t hold my breath, lest my face turns the same colour as yours in your profile photo.
@ Enda doesn’t understand any of the economic issues any better than Enda does. The question is how well Michael Noonan understands them and Doherty has shown time and time again that he has a better grasp of them than Noonan does.
any better than Adams sorry.
“For” Connolly, perhaps you can explain to the taxpayers on this forum why you spend your working hours in a public sector job continuously canvassing online for Sinn Fein and the Provisional IRA….
Well said. They were always going to lose support when it came time to move away from generalities and to provide the detail of their policies. Of course if this result comes to be, they’ll claim it as a great success and point out they went from 9.9% in 2011 to 15% now. But deep down they’ll know that this was a golden opportunity and they blew it..
@Stephen, considering Lab will be wiped, FF has been on the rack for 7 years and we’ve had 6-7 austerity budgets in a row, anything below 20% for the Shinners would be a horrific result. Their incompetence and connections to the Provisional IRA are keeping them locked out of middle Ireland.
And, meanwhile, as other party leaders who apparently had a better campaign go from supporter meeting to supporter meeting with armed Garda protection……
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YxrIT54Mr2I
‘Ger-ry, Ger-ry, Ger-ry!’: starstruck children meet TV star
Mistresses, media, flowers, Irish language and cheering crowds for Sinn Féin leader”
“Children on a 1916 tour outside the GPO were distracted from their history lesson by the swarm of media, Irish and international, who arrived behind them. Ger-ry, Ger-ry, Ger-ry,” they chanted when the focus of attention, Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams, arrived on O’Connell Street with deputy leader Mary Lou McDonald and crossed to the median in front of the GPO.
He crossed back to them, swamped by the media swarm, shook hands with some of the starstruck pupils and told them that he would making the point that “young people can make change”, before he addressed the press on the theme of getting the youth vote out.”
He’s fighting the establishment from within.
That is a very valid point Diarmuid.
FF lost 57 seats in 2011 – 7.5%. They were left with 20 seats.
If they double this and SF secure less seats then them, then that is total embarrassment for SF – the party that destroyed this country are a more palatable alternative.
17.5% not 7.5%
1 Fine Gael
2 Labour
3 Renua
His bias was slightly noticeable in the commentary after the last rte tv debate. To be fair to the man his analysis was mostly ok. He did remark on the memorability of Gerry’s “3 amigos” remark in his closing address.
This is another example of spin, trying to sway the undecideds to not vote for change. I hope labour get hammered and Kelly and Burton lose their seats I hope FG get less than 50 seats. What they did to future generations in this country should never be forgiven.
“What they did to future generations in this country should never be forgiven.”
Presiding over an economic recovery after the worst crash in our history?
I just scrolled straight down to the ‘ journalist’s/FG propagandist’s ‘ name…..they are desperate at this stage.
Hahahahahahahaha….
No……Enshrining the debts of gamblers to the irish state and continuing the cronyism and corruption they were elected to change. A failure of a Govt, Never again will FG get a vote in this house and my children will be told of what they did.
Enda Kenny 2011 “This is not your debt” “I will not run for reelection if I don’t fulfill this contract” 2016 he made it our debt and HAS NOT fulfilled his contract……yet he runs for election again on the back of his lies. Remember tomorrow folks we get the Govt we deserve, send a strong message for change and don’t transfer to candidates you don’t want to see back betraying us.
I was going to vote FG but won’t bother now… Home and hosed
Well I’ll be voting for a party that at least knows how to use a calculator and is not making false promises.
“But in the here and now of the election campaign the Fine Gael message has been confused. The party of prudence has found itself accused of an unaffordable tax cut with its promise to abolish the universal social charge (USC). Combined with that, it has also promised to spend substantial sums on investing in public services.”
“Having soundly managed the national finances over the past five years and overseen an economic recovery, Fine Gael saw its father figure Michael Noonan – revered within the party – mishandle the communication of its economic election package to such an extent that Sinn Féin could give lectures on bad sums and dodgy figures.”
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/fine-gael-needs-boomerang-not-just-rebound-1.2537257
Lol you clearly didn’t read what you posted…………..
Michael Noonan on the u.s.c in 2014. Beware of false promises. HIs figures don’t add up.
“I should point out that it was never intended that the USC would be a temporary measure. The USC was designed and incorporated in to the Irish taxation system as part of its permanent structure and the revenues collected play a vital part in meeting the many expenditure demands placed on the Exchequer.”
http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/sf-to-demand-abolition-of-universal-social-charge-499047.html
Sinn Féin President Gerry Adams will today launch a campaign demanding the abolition of the Universal Social Charge (USC).
http://www.sinnfein.ie/contents/20382
Sinn Féin Spokesperson on Finance Pearse Doherty has tonight moved the Sinn Féin Private Members motion which seeks the abolition of the Universal Social Charge.
Speaking from the Dáil Deputy Doherty said that the Universal Social Charge (USC) is little more than a tax on the working poor and should be abolished.
Deputy Doherty said:
“I am moving this motion tonight and in so doing am calling on all those who claim to oppose this unfair tax to support our motion.
“The abolition of the Universal Social Charge is an issue which demands the full support of each elected representative in the Dáil. It is little more than a tax on the working poor.
“This tax needs to be abolished and instead the Government should work on building a fairer tax system by creating a progressive tax base that taxes fairly and equalises wealth.
“Fine Gael and Labour have said that they will ‘review’ the Universal Social Charge. They have also proposed at least 32 other reviews in the Programme for Government.
“A review is not good enough. Fine Gael and Labour should make a stand for the people and abolish this grossly unfair tax.”
Diarmuid , you have to understand, For Connolly is a civil servant, not a public servant, big difference, plenty of time to spend online unlike true public servants like myself ; ) hopefully he has stayed away from the photocopier.
I wonder is he a Civil Servant contributing to his defined benefit scheme and in receipt of a tax credit for doing so?
watersedge – they’re all the same promise, parceled up in a different way, to buy votes.
In 2011 SF demanded the abolition of the USC when this country was on its knees (It is not correct to say that things have gotten worse, problems that already existed, legacy problems like health and housing did get worse of course), it demanded that the Government abolish a tax that brought in 4 billion – and replace it with what ffs.
Now when the government pledge to end it over a 5 year period (would you believe them by the way? I wouldn’t), SF now want to keep it – because they have to because their promises are pretty fkn costly as well.
Keep plugging away watersedge, good luck to your party – you posted a link (several times) the other day from VB and he clearly said – more of the same on the way.
Short memories in the electorate . Turkeys voting for Christmas .
Hugh @ the journal
I am actually shocked that you took down my reply to Patlyndo where I put up this link and quoted from it.
“Abolishing the USC would involve a reduction in public spending equivalent to the largest austerity budget implemented during the current government’s term of office. And it would not just be a once off reduction – it would be an annual loss, a form of ‘permanent austerity’. That is why it is essential that significant changes to the tax system are assessed in terms of their potential impact on Ireland’s general tax revenue (which provides the funding for public services) and wider economic inequalities.”
Therefore, abolishing, or substantially reducing, a tax such as the USC without providing alternative tax raising measures is likely to make this unsustainable situation significantly worse. The USC raises approximately €4billion in revenue each year which equates to the entire annual budget for capital infrastructure (housing, hospitals, schools, roads etc.).
http://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/rory-hearne-the-poor-will-bear-the-brunt-of-the-abolition-of-the-usc-1.2532556#.Vr5rcDPftv4.twitter
A 50% increase in share of the vote for Sinn Fein compared to 2011 is nothing short of a spectacular achievement. It’s only a matter of time before Ireland is changed forever
Enda Kenny 2011 “This is not your debt” “I will not run for reelection if I don’t fulfill this contract…
I tried to do a google search on that quotation to see where it had been published etc. Google says /Some results may have been removed under data protection law in Europe. Learn more.
Maybe I’m just bad at searching google or Enda wants us to forget FG/L dishonour.
Wow white monkey that must have been a joint effort among you and you ither FG Trolls at HQ,
Enda you lied.Just go back to Mayo and dig your spuds and lets try and get some real politicians to repair the damage you caused the country.
FG/LP/FFailures got their Fiscal Space figures wrong by a massive €2billion. Was it incompetence or dishonesty? Any SF put the 3 amigos right!
And you would vote for ff? They make ashamed to say I am irish. I am not a fg supporter either.
Thank fiddlers all the polls and fluff pieces and opinion articles will now STOP for a few hours.
Just remember folks, go out and vote tomorrow! Regardless of who you vote for! Even if you spoil your vote, just use it. Don’t be a lazy sod and sit on your arse at home. Not using your vote means you have no right to complain if you don’t like your representatives.
It’s a broadcast moratorium, pretty sure it doesn’t cover;
online only media ie.g thejournal, broadsheet,
online editions of print e.g The Irish Times, The independent,
news aggregators e.g Reddit.
Social media; twitter/facebook.
Podcasts; the front bench, inside politics
Online media can cover it all they like. There’ll be no moratorium on here and elsewhere
Dara and Luke…you have just made me do an Unlucky Alf in the office.
not sure if I could handle another term of enda and Joan we need a fresh change not the same old cra p
Wouldn’t be conserned too much about another 5 years of joan Richard. Next you’ll hear of her is when shes shoehorned onto a state board.
I hate that mantra ‘if you don’t vote you can’t complain’. Quite the opposite, if you vote you’re part of the useless machine. YOU can’t complain! If I had a social Democrat in my constituency I would vote. But I don’t, so I wont
You have plenty of independents!! Not voting is a vote for a continuation of the last five years. Well done.
That’s pathetic up down. If you vote you are part of the useless machine……got to be one of the worst comments i have seen throughout the entire election process. People fought and died and families ripped apart for you to have a vote. People in many other countries would die for the privilege. shame on you.
Up down, if I considered that none of the people standing in my area were worthy of my vote I would stand myself. At the very least use your vote to keep the worst of them out. Less whinging more action will shape a better society for all!
@Peter Mc Hugh
Had to argue with your sentiments but the ‘red thumbs’ indicate a least a few lazy sods are about.
@Up Down
“If I had a social Democrat in my constituency I would vote. But I don’t, so I wont”
Why didn’t you volunteer to stand yourself as a Social Democrat if you feel disenfranchised by not having one in your constituency ??
Hmmm why am I getting so many red thumps for being a bit mad at a stupid statement that ‘if you vote you are part of the useless machine’! USE YOUR VOTE
seems the public have seen through the SF lies :D
Tommy, this is a shinners comments section. Most probably because it’s free.
Remember people a vote for Sinn Fein is vote to help the lazy and Unambitious.
Someone has been watching Georges Carling recently lol.
Lies, damn lies, and students conducting a poll of 1,000 people – what could possibly go wrong…
I’m a taxi driver and obviously the biggest topic of conversation in the car since Xmas has been the GE.. There is no way in the world nearly 40% of the people I talk to are happy and willing to vote back in the Government.
Wouldn’t like to be in the back of your cab
Cosmo, that’s the sad thing about it, it doesn’t have to be 40% of the people, just 40% of the voting public. Anyone who doesn’t vote, no matter what their political persuasion, loses the right to say anything about a situation they could’ve changed by getting off their arses and marking X beside their preferred candidate.
Ditto..
Seems the public are colluding with FG :D
Cosmo
Follow your thinking just wondering how many won’t be happy with FG/Labour being returned but will bring them back on the basis of best of a bad choice. Also when alls said and done ignoring the things they haven’t done they took over a hell of a mess and have sorted somethings out. Personally I still don’t know which way to go. Just wish there was someone I could trust and believe.
Yeah, right Steve :-D
Small point Andrew. don’t mark X or your vote will be spoiled.
Yeah… Because most Irish people are mindlessly agreeable with whatever their taxi driver is ranting or moaning about today… they paid for a ride somewhere, not an political argument or go slow protest to the fact we don’t agree with you.
If I had a euro for every racist taxi driver comment I just said ‘uh-huh’ to, I’d be riding round all next month for nothing…
Best laugh I’ve had in ages
Bad news for the angry left. Anything to be said for another march.
As a shinner Colm, the joke’s on you.
Independent groupings at 14% is the true success story in all of this election. Even a loose collection of them will have more clout in opposition than SF will. SF won;t even be the largest party in opposition after 5 years of austerity. How embarrassing. They are polling at 15% and that will translate at closer to 12 or 13% of the overall votes. if they are lucky. A mere 2% or 3% increase in real numbers on the last 2011 election. Laughable considering the political landscape. . At this rate it’ll take the shinners 7 election cycles to be the largest party in a coalition government. Up to 35 years.
The only investment worth making is an investment in Independents, SD’s, and “others” IMO.
Gerry’s idea of breaking with criminality is to have the guy whose shed was used to hide Slabs hundreds of thousands of hot money, out canvassing for Gerry himself. This from a guy that wanted to, in the middle of an election campaign and gangland violence, remove the SCC. Today’s IT carried the story. The SF mafiosa we don’t need in this country. Not even on opposition benches.
Roll on the SD’s and “others”. Give us an opposition to be proud of. And pat yourselves on the back and thank you for not entering voting pacts with the shinners. I wouldn’t have voted for anyone that did. It has been the only saving grace of this entire campaign for me.
Well timed there Journal, I bet you blueshirts had this planned well in advance.
Less than an 30 mins before curfew. Protect DOB and FG at all costs…
I agree Colm. Who said today’s students don’t have a sense of humour!!!
Fred, its hugh posting a poll cobbled together by students. It carries about a much weight as Victoria Beckham.
With the help of God hugh will take a few months off after the election. Spend the few bob endo and dinny are so obviously paying him.
@fc no matter where you look for connolly – 75-80% of the electorate dont’ support SF and furthermore 70% do not support the loony left – like the UK the silent majority will vote to preserve what involves the least amount of change. The prospect of giving the keys of the house to a failed and in the case of the AAA untried and discredited ideology (Joe higgins saying that the model of government he wants is untried anywhere in the world) is an anathema to most.
This time monday the only thing will have changed is slightly less seats for FG slightly more for FF .. a lot less for labour and a few more for SF and independents..And you’ll be watching a FG taoiseach in Dáil Eireann.
Hope 40 independents get elected at least will make the Dail more interesting Like the Vincent Browne show on tour If they can’t agree on a budget European commission can always draft it
Don’t give in to all the negative campaigning about SF, remember, they are important if real change is to be brought about and are the largest grouping signed up to right to change.
“While everyone in the media failed to predict the FG-FF alliance now expected, it has been a dreadful election for journalism in worse ways.
The most alarming feature has been the ferocious campaign against Sinn Fein. The State has never witnessed such a biased agenda across all media organisations against a political party.”
“A detailed analysis of the anti-Sinn Fein editorialising over the past three weeks would make a very interesting thesis for any media students. It had a significant negative effect on opinion polls.
The party was slow to take issue with bias until its poll numbers were hit. Even then it only focussed on RTE.”
The Sun – lol.
The indo – lololololol.
If you’re not sure how your how the voting system works, read this.
No vote / no transfer to FF FG Labour, leave BLANK
@Andrew – yeah i’d agree – at least though the independent doesn’t have a section ‘irish columnists’ it’s pretty much inferred as the norm.
SF continue to nosedive in the polls and another good republican arrested for raping children today. How could anyone vote for SF
Tommy, typical example of what I have just posted about yet nowhere to be seen yesterday on the Michael Noonan story where it stated that Fine Gael Councillor Garrett O’Halloran, a former member of of the South Eastern Health Board has written to the Garda Commissioner calling on her to investigate the minister’s actions in the case.
That’s how you win an election campaign folks, through nothing else only running a dirty, mud slinging campaign in partnership with the media to keep the status quo. After all, it is not me or you who benefits, but them along with all the cream at the top – vote wisely.
32% in the polls and all those beautiful transfers, enda has done a fantastic job. meanwhile the shinners wallow on 15%- talk about irrelevant and the most transfer toxic party in the history of irish politics :D
The largest republican party in Ireland, North and South. I count all 32 counties as my country and especially this year in which we celebrate the 1916 rising where all the leaders had a vision and a determination for a free, united, 32 county republic which has yet to be achieved, I know I am backing the right party.
should labour add UK votes too… just to bulk up the numbers like?
all 26 counties of this beautiful country are perfectly united :)
Well said, Luke. SF/IRA were hoping this was their time considering the mood of the nation but a group of independents stole their thunder and are rightfully refusing to go into any vote pact agreement with such a toxic party.
hypocritica
The Shinner O’Bots are losing the plot. They put their names in Irish to somehow feel more Irish than the rest of us and support a ‘political’ party that is nothing short of a wing belonging to a criminal organisation from the North who are the true leaders of SF.
The loud uneducated mobs who have bombarded the internet with oneliners and copy and paste crap campaigning for SF will be silence when the final tally is made. SF are and always will be a party tainted by their violent and criminal past (and present!) and to be honest that is a shame as we could genuinely do with a proper left opposition in Ireland. Instead we have party who will spit out whatever populist line it feels is right to hook, line and sinker the fools they have hoodwinked.
SF. A party who are suited only to be in opposition as they only whinge and moan without ever offering anything of substance as a solution to what they whinge about.
100% spot on but wait for the usual suspects to start abusing you as a blueshirt stooge
Just look North to see how “effective” Sinn Fein are in government.
LMAO good old Journal. Like something you’d read on the rubberbandits Facebook page
True Blue why the surprise !!!
Spot on. SF/IRA and their supporters in a nutshell. And yes, because they wave the tricolour and have Irish names they think they’re more ‘Irish’ than the rest of us.
At least they can do the maths.
“Getting the balance right between making attractive but affordable promises was the task facing Fine Gael in the run-up to this election yet it managed to muck it up at the start of the campaign by not appearing to know how its own figures added up.”
Polls won’t influence anymore… FG/LAB must now pay..
One final push by the Journal to so their support for FG, and Labour. To only survey that will matter is the one on Saturday, not these bullshit polls.
I agree Derrick. I think the polls are going to be significantly wrong.
As they say, that would just be insanity, to keep voting for the same crowd that wreaked this country & expect something different! If they get back in , they will finish off carving up this country for themselves & their friends!
And they will sell what’s left over to some American Vulture Fund
That was FF not FG & L , when FF left power the unemployment rate was 15% its now down too 9%
No John…the live register is down to 9.3%. Don’t forget the activation schemes that remove people from the live register to massage the figures even though they still get their SW or Dole + €50.
That’s over 82,000 on schemes.
Don’t know where you are getting these polls but who the hell would vote FG in
Elderly catholics, the haves and have mores, the ‘whats in it for me’ people, legacy folk, civil war politic enablers, and so forth.
Mé féiners.
Sad isn’t it?
The shinners will be hoping the Travellers will come out and vote for them, and the Roma too.
The SF shuttle buses will be heading to halting sites all around Ireland.
You looking for a lift Luke?
Lol – I hope as a well paid cossetted Civil Servant with a Gold Plated pension, you are including yourself in that group FC?
Pat, this must be the 5th or 6th time you’ve refered to me as well paid. I take it you know what salary I’m on so?
I consider any well paid if they have a job for life, a guarenteed paycheck, generous paid annual leave entitlements and a generous Gold Plated pension waiting for them on retirement.
But sure, when Ruth gets in she’ll reverse all your pay cuts, so not to worry.
if you don’t consider yourself well paid – then leave and go to work in the private sector.
Oh, forgot to mention your generous entitlement to paid sick leave.
@pat – if for connolly was well paid he’d probably be better informed… so i suspect he’s not. He’s the guy behind the counter with the chip on his shoulder.
Unfortunately Gabby, no matter how informed he is, he’ll still get the same pay – his PMDS scored him a 3 no doubt.
So, basically, you have no idea how much I’m paid, but can state I’m well paid.
Good lad.
How would I know what salary you are on FC?
Do you not consider a job for life as part of your overall package?
Guaranteed paycheck?
Generous AL entitlements?
Paid sick leave?
Gold plated pension on retirement?
These are conditions that private sector workers do not have – if you are on the average industrial wage, with those conditions attached – then in my opinion you are well paid.
shinners nose diving and slab about to be thrown into a cage, not to mention another IRA peado was arrested. good times
@patlyndo
Cheers for admitting you have no idea what I’m paid. Puts your claim that I’m ‘well paid’ into perspective doesn’t it?
Where did I claim to know what you are paid?
If you cannot see how fortunate you are, then that is your problem, but don’t pretend to be “one of the people” FC, because you’re not.
If FG do get voted back in it will only be through the lies and spin of the media. The defining story in this election is not the “recovery” but the mask falling off a so-called free press in Ireland.
A very valid point, Eamonn Hughes, and we should all take note of it. I have to say I have gained some education on media manipulation and spin during the course of the past six months – these lessons have been well learned and will colour my outlook for the future. DON’T BELIEVE THE SHITE!!!!!
There has never been a “free press”. Nor is there a “liberal media”
All of it is owned and dependent on investments.
The Journal & IT are knee deep in property so they push that. The Indo has DOB pulling the strings. RTE has government funding to worry about.
There’s no such thing as a “free press”. There never has been.
PMSL! Dear oh dear….
Up 2 in a poll that can be off by +-3, weighted using historical voting record data which cannot take into account the transfers thanks to new groupings, social media impact or the record number of new voters.
Complete waste of time.
The real poll begins tomorrow folks
GET OUT THE VOTE!!
People remember or have read their history in the last few days.
In the 70s, 80s and 90s FF made a mess of the country. The people then voted FG in to fix it and just as the country was improving (but not fast enough and still had a bit to go) what did the public do?
They voted FF back in again. And then the cycle continued.
This time is different. People are now seeing that we need to continue to fix things. Its that OR the great unknown of a rag tag of parties fighting over policy.
That’s why FF are continuing to rise in the polls? Good one Greg!!
@fc 15% undecided in national polls. Minority government supported by FF. General election within 18 months. FF back in power.
Also if any one is interested i have lotto results for Saturday too.
According to this poll 85% of people do not support SF. If you went by this comment thread you’d think they were the largest party. Parnell Square on overdrive eh for connolly?
“People are now seeing that we need to continue to fix things”
‘Continue’ implies that you have already started.
Have you started to fix the homeless crisis?
Have you started to fix the trolley crisis?
Have you started to fix the childhood poverty crisis?
And so on……
2,000 operations cancelled in the North last year and another homeless man died on the streets of Belfast last night. `That’s the FOURTH homeless man to die in the North in FOUR weeks.
Meanwhile SF decided to give a few quid from their $500 plate dinners in NY to the homeless in the SOUTH.
Imagine how that makes the homeless in the NORTH feel?
Troll along FC.
I am not a member of any party FC as I know you aren’t either (wink), so why ask me?
I support a mix of left and right and have said before would consider FG, SD and independents. Even some Renua and Green party policies are attractive.
I have voted left and right in the past. Left for public services and right for jobs and economy.
You only want the Left parties to drain the money out of people’s wallets with tax tax tax. That’s the problem and people don’t want to be taxed to the hilt.
Yeah, its almost as if SF have no contol over the budget allocation to northern Ireland.
Oh, thats right, they don’t. Stormont has no powers to raise additional revenue of its own.
But you know that already ‘luke’, don’t you?
@ Luke Kelly, How do these figure sit on your conscience?
Over 11,500 operations and procedures were cancelled over the first six months of 2015
Twice as many patients are having their operations, scans and hospital care axed under the current government.
A total 11,597 operations and procedures were cancelled over the first six months of 2015, with the figure for the full year set to top 23,000. There were 12,234 cancellations throughout the whole of 2011, when the government was elected.
Troll along there Luke.
@fc – i ask you to re-read your first line “Yeah, its almost as if SF have no contol over the budget allocation to northern Ireland” do you see any hypocrisy or irony there? – i suspect you’re on a lower pay level in the civil service. But good for you anyway.
Ouch!
35% for FG so? 11% Labour? 18% SF?
Or is it 29% – 5% and 12%?
MOD. You make the mistake of thinking that anyone that opposes SF is pro government and therefore answerable for government. Typical SF trolling.
Why do you think SF have dropped 8 points in the last few weeks? Why don;t you answer that. And FC too. It’s a very simple question. YOU are the shinner. I vote Independent.
I am making no mistake, i am pointing out your hypocrisy in pointing out problems in Northern Ireland,
Whilst at the same time completely ignoring the problems which are rampant in the Republic, if you are going to post info, at least make it an even playing field. Otherwise you are showing your true colours, which are that of a disingenuous government mouthpiece.
And NO i am not a Shinner per say, but they are better than the 3 established parties put together, who between them havepassed this nation around for nearly a century, covering up every nasty type of scandal, lies, robbery, theft and croneyism on a national scale.
My first vote goes to Richard Boyd Barret, I have ALWAYS voted left, then Sinn Féin, Gilmore got my vote 5 years ago,i wouldn`t give that lying parasites party the steam off my piss for the rest of my life.
As far as the 8% drop goes, do remember the margin of error, do remember the blatant media bias and spin,
AND DO Remember that all polls count for nothing on the day of the election.
No away with you, you troll.
Luke, I’ll answer how I always answer, the only real poll is the polling booth.
….. and it happens tomorrow.
Beware the Margin of Terror. Chortle.
Beware the ides of marching season.
how will the shinnerbots be celebrating slabs caging ceremony?
With a cake with a hidden key inside it and a miniature hack-saw
Bit depressing the same gov that promised so much and failed to deliver could be back in power.
we will be told we should respect the will of the people ,I for one will struggle to.
They won’t be. We are going to see any number of methods between now and the polls closing to infer that therres no point voting as the government parties wil be returned. Its a well known ploy, as seen during the Seanad referendum.
Hopefully there aren’t as many weak minded sheep out there as the government and its cronys are banking on.
I see the dirty war is well under way. An IRA man arrested in spain wantedfor questioning here. A man in court over the omagh bombing and slab murphy to be sentenced tomorrow. Not a word about michael rings brother or crooked fg politicians in monaghan or elsewhere.
@seamus – are you suggesting that people involved in criminality don’t get arrested or charged because there is a general election on? – No matter what time of the year it is, sinn fein associates are before the attention of the law – it seems to be endless – imagine what it would be like if they were in charge of say the dept of justice – its that thought that will keep them from power to most right thinking people.
The DOB polling companies are out to get Sinn Fein.
@ seamus: I think it will be counterproductive. Too many coincidences that would make Goebbels blush. We saw it when Adams was arrested right before the local elections. To listen to the media, you’d think SF were toast, then they went on to have their best local election ever by a mile.
you still supporting the dissidents FC?
INM have been fairly disgraceful for the past year. I was a regular reader of this paper but I’ve stopped buying the Irish Independent as it is obsessed with Sinn Fein. Every week there is at least three or four articles about them. It must be demoralising for the Journalists that work there.
You have to wonder if DOB is manipulating everything we hear in Irish news.
Some people are easily manipulated but I hope the majority of people have the intelligence to see through the manipulation.
Agree Niallers, have a read of this by Oliver Callan, it is so obvious what they are at.
shinnerbots resorting to quoting comedians now, its getting all too tragic :D
This article was put up at 13.20 and I responded to it. 2 minutes later it was taken down! At 13.57 it re appears?
Guess who is pro Fine Gael…………….
It was taken down as there were errors in it. It initially had FG at 30%. When they put it back online it had FG at 32%
Insider knowledge there Luke.
No. I just read it before it was taken down. Shinner conspiracy theory *2011864
You’re on the ball today.
Are you running this rubbish to put people off voting at all because they’ll think it’s futile? Some college students do a survey and you run with it as it’s informative and important. Hugh O’Connell, I have serious misgivings about your suitability as a “political editor” and your boss is either complicit in your efforts to deceive or he’s not suitable to his role either.
I just wish whoever does your web design worked for Broadsheet or even Breaking News.
Joe
Bwt if SF were up much hugher you would not have a problem!
Paul
What?
For the record, I have a problem with any and all BS peddled by journalists to suit their own bias/agendas. Any journalist who does that (and Hugh does very little else besides that, as far as I can see) should be disciplined the first two times and sacked on the third, same as any other job anyone doesn’t do properly.
I have no illusions about Sinn Féin either. I happen to fully agree (unfortunately) with everything VB says here: http://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/vincent-browne-do-not-worry-about-gerry-adams-and-sinn-f%C3%A9in-1.2545703
Are you for real let’s start 1 you bailed the banks out you should of let the bond holders burn 2 tax the poor and the wealthy get richer like bono .Apple owe 1.6 billion and over and I keep going 3 tds should not be on the salary there on 4 payment of 2 million for CEO of Irish water Allan Kelly minister for housing I wouldn’t leave him in charge of a dolls house 5 property tax 6 wants to introduce recycling charges 7 water tax Hse is in a jocker Motor tax being spent on water installers and you want to get back in f××× off you and labour Mentally disadvantaged no help
You’re making some valid points but the way you articulate yourself needs more than a little work. When Sinn Fein finally do get into government I will lobby for adult education to be a top priority.
Here is to the “Bandwagon Effect” the “Milgram experiment” and to the “Stanford prison experiment” and how the political parties used parts of them to fool the voters…
But yet don’t all those who can afford to go to college / university not come from those who think they are somebody and that would be those who vote for F.G. anyway?
THE ELITE ALWAYS VOTE FOR F.G. or those who think they are anyway???
One last throw of the dice by Hugh to get his man enda home.
History will record Kenny as the man who had a golden chance to reform Irish politics and failed utterly. He just didn’t have the guts to go through with it. A coward.
Newstalk predict:
FG: 51 seats (32%)
Lab: 7 seats (4.4%)
FF: 39 seats (24.7%)
SF: 29 seats (18.8%)
PBP/AAA: 6 seats (3.7%)
Ind All: 6 seats (3.7%)
Soc Dems: 3 seats (1.8%)
Greens: 2 seats (1.2%)
Renua: 2 seats (1.2%)
Independents: 20 (12.6%)
FG/Lab are a mile away from being able to form a govt!
Connact – as of this morning 15% are undecided voters ? so it’s still open. I think minority gov supported by FF.. until it suits them to pull the plug.
Well one thing is for sure Gabby, it’s already been sorted behind the scenes. All the deals are done, from Saturday it’s all a performance of how to make the electorate swallow whatever make up of the next government is .
Undecided could mean, I intend to vote for Fianna Fail but I’m not going to tell anyone, Look Out Enda/Joan it’s going to be embarrasing
@gerry- i’d say that’s precisely what it means. I think FF are going to do very well – people who were traditional FF cannot find a home in FG or Labour and well when it comes to SF i think when it comes to the polling booth they won’t be able to bring themselves to give them the tick – to many unknowns.
There are three kind of lies; lies, damned lies and statistics
Do you think the polling is going to be vastly different than what the statistics suggest?
Yes I do.
People all over the place that I speak to are slating labour and saying they’re not voting for them. so unless they’re all lieing or the people speaking to the pollsters are lieing I just don’t get this at all
Please vote Sinn Fein or independent people .. Time for change .. FF wrecked this country FG lied there arse off to get voted in . Now we can pay them back along with there ass kissing labour camp .. Vote them out
Agreed james. I would ask people who are voting left to give their first preference to sf to keep labour out even if the sf candidate isnt your preferred candidate. Ff are asking voters to transfer to labour. This cozy establishment must be stopped.
James I can understand people voting left, centre or right.
There are plenty of left leaning parties out there Social dems, AAA, People before profit, The greens, many independents event he workers party!
But why vote Sinn Fein out of interest? They and their paramilitary wing were the biggest criminal organisation we have ever had in the state, involved in scandal after scandal brought on by themselves from murder, sex abuse, hijacking, robbery, kidnapping etc etc
vote anyone but the immoral shinners
Rabitte and Gilmore, for balance since SF seem to be the only ones with no past.
“More cynically, they remained allied to the Workers’ Party (it dropped the Sinn Féin bit after a while), while it was linked with the Official IRA, which, right through to the late 1980s was engaged in murder (for instance, the murder of a former member, Séamus Costello – by no means the only murder in that period), intimidation, racketeering, armed bank robberies and forgery – a printing press used to forge bank notes was linked to the party.
And during all that time, while media reports revealed the extent of this criminality linked with the party, they remained members and joined in the dogged denials even of the existence of the Official IRA.”
http://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/gilmore-and-rabbitte-built-their-careers-on-cynicism-1.956145
good point wateredge. Maybe we need another term or a generation before people will accept Sinn Fein.
When Ferris, Adams and the other old boys linked to all the atrocities are gone, I think they will be flying.
Doherty and some of the new breed need to break free and they could very well be the big left opposition to the right, but ONLY when those old links go will the young and not so young people in Ireland trust them.
I support them in the here and now Greg and make no apologies for doing so.
Im glad its nearly over..doesent feel like the shortest campaign..and we might have to face it all again before christmas..ah well..bye bye labour..
More bollocks!
People (especially the younger voters now) are finally starting to wake up and read the policies of all the parties and realise the mess we could end up in if we change.
We continue to improve the country or go into instability? You choose.
As they all want to emigrate as 23,500 did last year…
You write some waffle Greg, peoples OWN experiences will tell them who to vote for, not ones who belong to political parties acting as citizens on social sites…
Beware the Flying Monkeys…
http://trickstersworld.com/2016/02/11/fly-my-pretties/
Tony you know also that political parties here have paid companies to post pro party nonsense for them as well on social media sites.
Fear Chaos Fear Chaos Fear ChaosFear Chaos Fear Chaos Fear ChaosFear Chaos Fear Chaos Fear Chaos Fear Chaos Fear Chaos Fear Chaos Fear Chaos Fear Chaos Fear Chaos Fear Chaos Fear Chaos Fear Chaos Fear Chaos Fear Chaos Fear ChaosFear Chaos Fear Chaos Fear ChaosFear Chaos Fear Chaos Fear Fear Chaos Fear Chaos Fear ChaosFear Chaos Fear Chaos Fear ChaosFear Chaos Fear Chaos Fear Chaos Fear Chaos Fear Chaos Fear ChaosFear Chaos Fear Chaos Fear ChaosFear Chaos Fear Chaos Fear Chaos Fear Chaos Fear Chaos Fear ChaosFear Chaos Fear Chaos Fear ChaosFear Chaos Fear Chaos Fear Chaos Fear Chaos Fear Chaos Fear ChaosFear Chaos Fear Chaos Fear ChaosFear Chaos Fear Chaos Fear Chaos Piss off Greg you FG lacky
I don’t think 40% would be sufficient. 42% wasn’t for FF in 2002 and 2007 and transfers won’t be as tight between two parties. Also I’m sceptical of this poll as the polling was taken Friday-Monday is before the last Red C poll.
It really doesn’t matter which shower get in. All as poor as the others.
Memo to yourselves at The Journal …. The English Polls got it spectacularly wrong at their last election
Lol, memo to McCrory – they failed to predict Cameron’s outright win.
DIT students polling in Dublin 4,
Feel a bit sorry for some for the younger labour TD’s. Sold a pup by Gilmore, Rabbite and Burton. It’s going to be a bloodbath. Hope the Socdems have a good day
Know whAt ye can do with your polls
You can’t trust the media
Even if Carlsberg did elections FG wouldn’t get 32% and liebour achieve 8%, even at the final coffee this morning Enda could not get his prepared sound bite out without someone having a pop.”Kenny your a rat!” is how one voter stated his feelings. I could be wrong by Sunday we will all know who won and who lost. But for at least two leaders their power trip will end maybe in some cases before it even started. Its the Irish people I trust not the rotten politicians.
Yes indeed, well done Journal, we hear you. Congratulations on your final push – bonuses all round, no doubt, and if not – why not? You couldn’t have done any more. :-0
the ould shinner persecution complex is alive and well :D
According to Ivan Yates on Newstalk FG will get 51 seats and labour 6-8 seats so not sure how Hugh thinks they will form a Government?
Great news for Sinn Fein. I heard they were getting nervous a few months ago when they peaked in the polls and risked actually having to implement their policies.
Their plans to gut people’s pensions, tax employment and impose USC above 20k have killed them.
What a shocker, this article was written by Hugh!
It’s payback time get fg labour, out for betraying the people of this country.
It’s long been the hope by the Govt (and Chumocracy pals) that the electorate would “do a Tory” and vote them back in out of FEAR. A vote from FEAR insults our emigrants, our sick, our homeless and those we have lost. Is Calamity Kenny really the least worst option? Have you got the FEAR?
http://trickstersworld.com/2016/02/15/you-got-the-f-e-a-r/
Is that why people think happened in the UK?
I don’t know how interested you are in Facts but, Fine Gael have employed Tory strategists to “scare the shit out” of the electorate. More democracy (in)action.
Haven’t the opposition party used scare tactics?
None of these polls take the way people vote into consideration. Cross party voting and where no’s 4,5,6,etc go on the ballot paper can have a huge effect on the outcome of any election in the event of a tight vote.
Yea, interesting timing. The ONLY poll to show FG >30% AND Lab dovetailing nicely to get around 40% of the votes.
All I can do is hope it is wrong.
I wonder did they restrict based on who was standing in a constituency.
For example, the Social Democrats aren’t standing in all that many, so if they have 4% national support concentrated where they are standing, it would mean 12% in those constituencies, meaning they could come back with quite a lot of seats.
But if they have allowed people (like me), who don’t even have a local Social Democrat candidate to select them, then it damages the usefulness of the poll.
Sure does. I’m in the same boat with no SD candidate here. The newstalk poll showing only 3 seats for them is going to proven wrong though. They have 14 candidates and will likely get closer to 6 or 7 seats.
As for shinners on 18.8%? Hahaha.
I wouldn’t underestimate SF, they have a very strong core vote.
The polls don’t reflect that the SD’s don’t have candidates in every constituency – I think they will do very well.
@luke apart from the 3 out going T.D.s who do you think is in contention of winning a seat ?
The Journal.ie. Take out the full stop , or dot , between the l, and the i , and you get the journaLIE!
Did these students enter socially deprived areas of Dublin or did they just grab someone with a copy of the Irish Times or Independent as participants in their survey???
FG took office in 2011 – 15.2% unemployment.
FG after their first five years – 8.6%.
Smoke and mirrors. It’s 12% if you include those on job activation schemes as Thejournal reported recently.
Can’t wait to give liebour, Finanna Fail & the blueshirts a boot up the hole tomorrow.
its gong to be hung Dáil.
But not a “well hung” Dail
I’ve said it before but it’s worth repeating daily. We are an amazing country. Despite the incompetent incumbents and the odious private debt burden we’ve taken on, we’ve still managed to get back to some semblance of a functioning country. We did this in spite of Enda and his Government, not, as he would have us believe,because of them.
Those of us who haven’t had “the shit scared out ” of us have been Smeared, Slurred and Dismissed as Whingers. No, we are not afraid of Enda, we will not be swayed by name calling. I believe we will vote for change and I believe Enda knows it. He’s got the FEAR… http://trickstersworld.com/2016/02/15/you-got-the-f-e-a-r/
To be honest Tony, I’m amazed sf/ira are managing 15% given their past.
Only adds up to 99%
Nobody I know said they are voting Fine Gael or Labour so polls must be wrong. Comments like that are just so amusing. If you oppose the government then you are more likely to want to mouth off about it & if you support it you are afraid to say you do because you might end up having an argument with one of the aggressive loudmouths who can’t take accept anyone having a different opinion than themselves.
We tend to surround ourselves with like minded people.
Yip i guessed as much same again for next five years….i better go and pay my water bills…..
Sinn Fein are down. Must be fake. #shinnerlogic
Hopefully the FF revival fails to materialise.
I wonder if Hugh could furnish the details of this poll i.e. how it was carried out, which questions were asked and how many people were polled?
We’ll know the outcome Saturday so this is a pretty pointless poll.
If I could have one wish it would be to see Enda and Joan signing on new Monday… Oh wait a minute they’ll get gold plated pensions, it’s only us pleps who have to work for a living
1. Fine Gael
2. Fine Gael
3. Fine Gael
“It was the neo-liberals and banksters wot did it etc etc etc ”
After 5 years of cutting and pasting rubbish the AAA is still on 1%
Nationalise Dell comrades !!
Grow up Hugh the dream is over
While i don’t really care what happens to dear old Enda, as a trade union member I am disgusted with labour and their behaviour in this coalition of the uncaring and i they get a kicking tomorrow
The poll was carried out by Dublin Institute of Technology – did they poll include people outside of Dublin? (and I don’t mean Bray or Clonee but in Galway, Cork etc, etc) What was the sample size of this poll?\ The poll was carried by Market Research Students and I don’t doubt their ability, but was it supervised and verified by qualified M.R. practitioners?
If this is a sign of a FG surge, then there are going to be a lot of journalists with egg on their faces. Many, such as Coleman and Yates, have been bugging up a FF “surge” with little or no back up or evidence.
Yates hasn’t much of a clue. He says Boyd-Barrett will top the poll in leafy Dun Laoghaire.
Boyd-Barrett is fighting for the second or third seat. If FF had run one candidate, I’d reckon that he’d be guaranteed the third seat but with two FF TDs, I say he’ll squeak in again with the other FG candidate.
Right 2 change running as many candidates as FG and Labour together. FG will transfer their first and second and in places third preferences amongst their own candidates. 106 Right 2 Change candidate’s will not transfer to Labour. Their wipe out will be huge, Lucy to come out with 7-10 seats. Due to R2C Sinn Fein are transfer friendly for the first time and could end up with 30-35 seats. Where are FF going to get transfers for either. So to conclude FG and Labour government is impossible.
SF will win less seats than FF. With FF’s baggage, that’s a serious failure for a populist party that is pitching themselves as a potential major partner of a government.
As for Right2Change, it’s a front for Unions aggrieved by SIPTU. It’s kind of obvious but it seems that FF are aware of that by refusing to sign up.
The next majority government of this state will be a Sinn Fein one within the next 15-20 years.
Wrong. There are not that amount of stupid people in the country,
Your having a laugh, right? FG etc back in power? I don’t think so …,,
Come saturday(no pun intended) the blueshirt ejaculation party at dermos will be canceled lol
What a load of horse minure..!! There’s no end to the corruption & media lies
If you vote for FG or FF you are voting for the same austerity that has empitied the country of its best young brains. You are voting for cronyism, corruption in office and the enslavement of the country by the Germans. Good luck!
Thats it so. No transfers for the Social Democrats.
Jesus christoph Hugh will you sort your jaw it’s taking blood away from your brain. Come out of dublin while doing polls this is not happening
here’s a sign in the sky for all floating voters!!!
https://eurofree3.wordpress.com/2016/02/24/irish-general-election-sign-in-the-sky/
Who paid for it?
There are dreams and wet dreams, you must be swimming in it Hugh !
Such crap is so insulting !!
have your say