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UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson. 31 January. PA

Explainer: Is this the final throw of the dice before a post-Brexit deal is struck?

Why have things flared up this weekend, and are we actually close to an EU-UK trade deal?

HERE WE GO again.

There’s less than a month to go before the UK leaves the EU’s Single Market and Customs Union, having officially left the bloc in January.

Things seemed to have flared up this weekend – so what is going on?

To recap, since trade talks began almost 10 months ago, the core stumbling blocks have remained the same: the level-playing field provisions, a dispute mechanism and fisheries.

Now with just weeks left before the transition period ends – which was an arrangement where the UK could have one foot in the European Union and one foot out to give it time to prepare to leave – those three issues are still yet to be completely resolved.

Over 95% of the EU-UK trade deal has been agreed and drafted into a legal text.

A flare-up on Friday saw UK chief negotiator David Frost and the EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier jointly announce that they would ‘pause’ negotiations.

The final hurdle of Brexit talks was always going to end up being made by political leaders, as happened in the first round of Brexit talks.

A breakthrough was made over the Northern Ireland Protocol after then-Taoiseach Leo Varadkar met with UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson in Cheshire, after months of deadlock between the negotiating teams.

In this case, negotiators deferred to Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

Both leaders spoke yesterday, released a statement that said gaps remain, but that negotiations in Brussels would resume today and the two would speak again tomorrow evening.

belgium-eu-britain-brexit European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Julien Warnand Julien Warnand

What’s happening here is that the political leaders are being asked to give negotiators a bit more wiggle room in order to strike a final deal. 

The three main stumbling blocks that have ground talks to a halt have been:

  • Level-playing field provisions: This is about the EU and UK agreeing the same set of rules on things like workplace standards and workers’ rights; environmental standards; and rules on State aid, so EU or UK firms don’t get an unfair advantage.
  • Governance: If the UK or EU have been accused of breaking the rules of any trade agreement they might reach, who will decide whether this accusation is fair, and what would the punishment for breaching rules of the agreement be? The UK does not want this to be the European Court of Justice, which one Tory MP said would be like “the EU marking its own homework”.
  • Fisheries: There is a row over how many EU fishing boats the UK will allow into its waters, and how many fish it will allow them to catch. The UK wants to ‘take back control of its waters’, but the EU argues that European boats have fished in British waters since long before it joined the European Union. You can read Irish fishermen’s concerns about the fisheries arrangement here.

In the past few weeks, murmurings from politicians have suggested that progress has been made on the level-playing field issue, possibly the most contentious of the three. 

But reports from the confidential talks have suggested that demands from the French government over rights to the UK’s fishing waters may have created a new problem this week, just as a deal was about to be struck.

Any one of the leaders of the 27 EU member states can veto a final trade deal. Giving them access to the details of the deal before this vote takes place ensures that everyone is onside – which seems to be where this last-minute snag arose. 

“We know that 100% access to fishing waters in the UK maritime zone is finished,” European Affairs minister Clement Beaune told le Journal du Dimanche.

“But we need lasting access. The British can’t have total access to our EU Single Market and exclude fish.”

Tory MP Andrew Bridgen suggested on RTÉ Radio One today that the UK government would grant this “lasting” access, though there has been some suggestion of a time-limited trial of various fishing arrangements. 

The 27 EU leaders are due to gather in Brussels on Thursday for a two-day summit planned to tackle their own budget dispute, but which will now once again be clouded by the post-Brexit trade talks.

If there is no trade deal between the EU and UK, trade between the two nations would have high tariffs set by the World Trade Organization. This could have a huge impact on Ireland’s highly lucrative dairy and beef sectors. 

But if the UK reverted to a no-free-trade deal relationship with the EU from 1 January, trade negotiations between the two regions would continue in the new year, as some sort of trading relationship would need to be built up due to the UK’s geographical proximity and the close relations that already existed when it was an EU member state.

Today, Foreign Affairs Minister Simon Coveney suggested today that if Westminster passed either the contentious Internal Market Bill or the more recent Taxation bill, which contravene provisions in the Withdrawal Agreement, that he couldn’t see how the European Parliament could pass an EU-UK trade agreement.

Both the House of Commons and the European Parliament would need to vote to accept any EU-UK trade agreement before it can be ratified, and come into force.

But Coveney also said that if a trade deal was struck, that problems linked to those pieces of legislation “may find a way of disappearing”, suggesting that the EU is less concerned about those bills than it is about striking a deal, which is still the most likely outcome.

Current negotiations may rumble on from today right up until the European Council meeting on Thursday, which would give the UK time to pull its two contentious bills.

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17 Comments
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    Mute Manbackonboard
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    May 24th 2019, 9:48 AM

    I think they’ll be disappointed. Queen are not the same without Freddie Mercury.

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    Mute Michael Mulcahy
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    May 24th 2019, 10:17 AM

    @Manbackonboard: excellent

    79
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    Mute KJmadra.
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    May 24th 2019, 10:00 AM

    I feel sorry for the Queen.

    287
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    Mute Russel Steapot
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    May 24th 2019, 11:03 AM

    What TF are Harry and Wills doing by agreeing to meet the Trumps? Surely they’re not obliged.

    47
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    Mute TamuMassif2019
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    May 24th 2019, 12:37 PM

    @Russel Steapot: Must be setting up the Royal family in the US now, it is a business?

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    Mute Paula Mackie Senior
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    May 25th 2019, 7:47 AM

    @Russel Steapot: probably moral support for poor Grannie who has a deluge of crooked, ignorant Trumps, who’ve invited themselves, to cope with. That family have some neck!

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    Mute emer caffrey
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    May 24th 2019, 10:04 AM

    One will need xanax with ones gin to cope

    187
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    Mute TamuMassif2019
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    May 24th 2019, 12:41 PM

    @emer caffrey: Trump’s all excited about the Royal wee…

    20
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    Mute Eamonn Ó Maoldomhnaigh
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    May 24th 2019, 12:56 PM

    @TamuMassif2019: Desending on him from a great height?

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    Mute TamuMassif2019
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    May 25th 2019, 1:02 AM

    @Eamonn Ó Maoldomhnaigh:
    Rain down, rain down
    Come on rain down on me
    From a great height
    From a great height
    Height
    Rain down, rain down
    Come on rain down on me
    From a great height
    From a great height
    Height
    Rain down, rain down
    Come on rain down on me
    That’s it, sir
    You’re leaving
    The crackle of pigskin
    The dust and the screaming
    The yuppies networking
    The panic, the vomit
    The panic, the vomit
    lol.

    1
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    Mute Olly Keegan
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    May 24th 2019, 10:36 AM

    I think they should just give Philip a free reign to say whatever he wants and then sit back and enjoy the show

    186
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    Mute Col de Gal
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    May 24th 2019, 10:46 AM

    @Olly Keegan: They should let him do the driving.

    104
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    Mute Enda Heff
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    May 24th 2019, 10:47 AM

    @Olly Keegan: That would make for excellent reality TV if they put a camera In the room

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    Mute TamuMassif2019
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    May 24th 2019, 12:39 PM

    @Olly Keegan: Phillip’s driving them to the palace…

    3
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    Mute Tom Kelly
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    May 24th 2019, 9:57 AM

    Hope she snubs the lot of them.

    94
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    Mute Shane Carroll
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    May 24th 2019, 10:51 AM

    @Tom Kelly: One wealthy family from inheritance that doesn’t declare their tax meets another. One difference though is that the royals pr team bans them from exposing their real thoughts on social media!

    45
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    Mute Russel Steapot
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    May 24th 2019, 11:04 AM

    Imagine if Prince Philip had a twitter account! That would be legendary.

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    Mute Anthony
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    May 24th 2019, 11:56 AM

    @Shane Carroll: the royals don’t declare tax because they don’t pay tax. It’s difficult to declare zero

    19
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    Mute Steven Moens
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    May 24th 2019, 10:16 AM

    I wonder if Her Majesty will be able to keep up the facade when that reality TV bunch of riff raff comes to soil her carpet….

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    Mute Pl O'neill
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    May 24th 2019, 9:53 AM

    Probably worried about leaving them at home with creepy Joe biden .

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    Mute Orla Smith
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    May 24th 2019, 10:12 AM

    @Pl O’neill: You mean Brett Kavanaugh!

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    Mute Enda Heff
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    May 24th 2019, 10:45 AM

    @Orla Smith:. No he clearly stated Joe Boden. Is there something wrong with you?

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    Mute Sorcha Ní Shúilleabháin
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    May 24th 2019, 10:50 AM

    @Enda Heff: He clearly didn’t state Joe Boden!!!

    47
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    Mute Enda Heff
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    May 24th 2019, 10:53 AM

    @Sorcha Ní Shúillekabháin: so the pretext of creepy changes the clarity is it?

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    Mute Sorcha Ní Shúilleabháin
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    May 24th 2019, 11:21 AM

    @Sorcha Ní Shúilleabháin: No, but if you’re going to be so rude as to ask what’s wrong with someone else it would help to be right yourself!

    37
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    Mute Julian Friesel
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    May 24th 2019, 1:54 PM

    @Sorcha Ní Shúilleabháin: *mic drop*

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    Mute Dave O'Keeffe
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    May 24th 2019, 4:08 PM

    I don’t think he has figured it out yet

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    Mute White Rabbit
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    May 24th 2019, 7:11 PM

    @Enda Heff: He clearly didn’t say David Hasselhof. Does that affect the context?

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    Mute bill clear
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    May 24th 2019, 9:59 AM

    Oh God does that mean they are coming here too. Nooooo

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    Mute DJ François
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    May 24th 2019, 10:15 AM

    Let loose the corgis…

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    Mute Keelan O'neill
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    May 24th 2019, 10:58 AM

    @DJ François: with bees in the mouths and when they bark they shoot bees.

    16
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    Mute Paula Mackie Senior
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    May 25th 2019, 7:50 AM

    @DJ François: in case you missed it … all royal corgis are now ex- corgis. They’ve died out and Betty isn’t going to have any more.

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    Mute Dave O'Keeffe
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    May 24th 2019, 10:02 AM

    A nice day out for Tiffany

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    Mute Veronica
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    May 24th 2019, 10:51 AM

    @Dave O’Keeffe: haha so harsh

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    Mute thephantomshit
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    May 24th 2019, 10:02 AM

    Is this really news?

    32
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    Mute Dave Moran
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    May 24th 2019, 10:29 AM

    The Grizwalls meet the Queen National Lampoon European vacation!

    35
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    Mute ianglen
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    May 24th 2019, 10:06 AM

    Wouldn’t be the first time the monarchy of the UK was sympathetic to a fascist.

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    Mute Pl O'neill
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    May 24th 2019, 12:00 PM

    @ianglen: Always Facists around in Central Europe .

    3
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    Mute Eugene Conroy
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    May 24th 2019, 10:52 AM

    A democratically elected head of state meeting an unelected head of state before he meets with an other head of state that inherited his position from his pals. Would I have that right or am I missing something

    28
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    Mute Joe Curran
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    May 24th 2019, 10:52 AM

    The Clampetts are coming to town!

    27
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    Mute Malcolm Smith
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    May 24th 2019, 11:44 AM

    Well he’s bringing the ones he knows about !

    19
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    Mute Patabake Kennedy
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    May 24th 2019, 10:19 AM

    It’s going to be like a school outing.

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    Mute TamuMassif2019
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    May 24th 2019, 12:35 PM

    @Patabake Kennedy: Who took a dump in the Queens handbag… Own up…

    3
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    Mute FlopFlipU
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    May 24th 2019, 11:14 AM

    I didn’t think he was a adult never mind siring any such a thing

    10
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    Mute TamuMassif2019
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    May 24th 2019, 12:33 PM

    @FlopFlipU: Show the Queen what you do for Daddy lol.

    3
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    Mute Gus Sheridan
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    May 24th 2019, 11:17 AM

    I think three Queen will be so excited……not

    9
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    Mute David Faulkner
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    May 24th 2019, 1:48 PM

    He reckons he’s royalty most likely. Delusions or notions, or both

    9
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    Mute Marty from Sligo
    Favourite Marty from Sligo
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    May 24th 2019, 11:07 AM

    The Queen of England is head of Britain’s for over 60 years and its amazing no one ever voted for her..

    8
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    Mute TamuMassif2019
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    May 24th 2019, 12:32 PM

    @Marty from Sligo: No need when they have the BBC Propaganda machine working overtime.

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    Mute Kyle Mac Creddin
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    May 24th 2019, 12:51 PM

    What do you call a bunch of Trumps?????

    8
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    Mute Dave Thomas
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    May 24th 2019, 1:11 PM

    @Kyle Mac Creddin: an intellectual black hole

    17
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    Mute Paula Mackie Senior
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    May 25th 2019, 7:52 AM

    @Kyle Mac Creddin: a degradation of Trumps?

    1
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    Mute Dominic Leleu
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    May 24th 2019, 10:05 AM

    Yeah.. don’t mind us, we just have hotels and golf courses.. moving on, next the United Kingdom… They speak the same language so it should not be hard ..

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    Mute CharliesAngel
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    May 24th 2019, 3:38 PM

    I thought you had to be invited by Her Majesty, that you couldn’t just rock up to the palace with all your family in tow. Could this be like a reverse Assange? They show up at Buckingham Palace and claim asylum?
    (No offence meant to anyone who genuinely is seeking asylum)

    5
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    Mute Kim Campbell
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    May 26th 2019, 9:45 PM

    @CharliesAngel: May invited him for a state visit just after he was elected.

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    Mute TamuMassif2019
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    May 24th 2019, 12:31 PM

    Because they all have sore feet and Trump heard the Queen has Footmen lol.

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    Mute In my opinion
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    May 24th 2019, 1:35 PM

    The Von Trappe family meets the Queen

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    Mute michael dowling
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    May 24th 2019, 1:24 PM
    2
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    Mute Donal Desmond
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    May 24th 2019, 4:54 PM

    Is Stormy Danials going also… Will the video be on sale after visit.. Asking for a friend.

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    Mute Louisa Anna Harley
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    May 25th 2019, 9:11 AM

    He is a multi billionaire so that should be no problem.

    1
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    Mute Francis Glynn
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    May 24th 2019, 2:23 PM

    Like a pack of……..

    1
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    Mute Kim Campbell
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    May 26th 2019, 9:47 PM

    Oh I hope Charles and the boys have a great talk about climate change and the benefits of wind power.

    1
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