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AS IRELAND PREPARES for the upcoming referendum, I find myself in the midst of another divisive political campaign. On May 27 Colombians will go to the polls in the first round of a presidential election.
On every street and in all forms of media I am bombarded with propaganda, while every conversation inevitably turns to the ongoing electoral race. It is one of the most polarising elections in Colombian history and one that could profoundly transform the country.
Peace agreement
In 2016, following the narrow rejection of the initial agreement by voters, the Colombian government approved a revised peace agreement with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) following decades of civil war.
This Marxist rebel group, formed by rural peasants to fight for land reform, grew immensely powerful due to its profits from the drugs trade. Through a series of attacks on the military and terrorist bombings, it pushed the Colombian state to the point of collapse.
Paramilitary groups, formed by military officers, landowners and drug traffickers to combat the guerrillas, responded with brutal campaigns against the peasantry, massacring entire villages and driving people from their homes. The war has left more than 250,000 dead and many more injured or displaced.
Peace plebiscite
But despite the carnage and suffering caused by the conflict, many Colombians rejected the peace process. Some were angry that FARC commanders could avoid jail sentences under the special justice system.
Others feared that allowing FARC to enter politics would lead to a communist government or economic ruin. The peace plebiscite in 2016 showed wide divisions amongst voters. Those in the remote regions where the conflict is now mostly fought almost all supported the accord with FARC, while many in cities rejected it. A generation gap has emerged as young voters are far more likely to back the peace process.
These divisions have given rise to a polarising presidential campaign. Iván Duque, with the backing of far-right former president Alvaro Uribe, has emerged as the frontrunner in the race.
The candidates
He is wildly popular among those who reject the peace process. According to opinion polls, his closest rival is socialist Gustavo Petro. A former member of the now demobilized M-19 guerrilla army, this former mayor of Bogotá has won enormous popularity those tired of the cosy elite who have long dominated Colombian politics.
This support for a leftist is an anomaly in one of Latin America’s most conservative countries. Meanwhile, the more centrist candidates are trailing behind in polls, most notably Sergio Fajardo who was the early favourite in the race.
This election will decide the future of the peace process. If elected, Duque will do everything in his power to undermine it and to reverse some key articles. This comes at a time when the process is faltering on several fronts.
Efforts to curb cocaine production in conflict zones have largely proved ineffective. Peace talks with the smaller Army of National Liberation (ELN) have moved very slowly and several small dissident groups from FARC have joined them in attacks on state forces.
Division and hatred
Meanwhile, the remnants of the paramilitaries remain active in many areas and have attempted to block the land redistribution at the heart of the peace deal. Often acting in alliance with local politicians and the military, they have killed many social leaders throughout the country in an effort to terrorise the local communities.
The division and hatred in Colombian politics is truly astonishing. Many right-wingers I know have called for a military coup or the assassination of Petro. There is also widespread fear amongst the electorate.
With the potential failure of the peace process and the ongoing economic and political collapse in neighbouring Venezuela, many voters fear what the future will bring for the country. The influx of over a million Venezuelan refugees to ma country which already had a high unemployment rate has caused a severe backlash.
Widespread hope
Nevertheless, there is widespread hope in many regions of the country. Some areas which were once plagued by violence are now welcoming tourists for the first time in living memory.
The very fact that a left-wing candidate is so close to the presidency is encouraging for the future of Colombian democracy – several predecessors were killed by the military or paramilitaries.
The peace process still enjoys the oversight and backing of the UN and many Colombians are determined not to let this chance for peace slip away. Hopefully their efforts will not be in vain and the country will soon see an end to the violence that has cursed it for so long.
Kieran Duffy is an Irishman living in Bogotá, Colombia. He writes about the country’s politics and ongoing peace process. He tweets at @bogota_duffy.
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RIP those who died. No-one is immune from disaster.
Weather forecast was hit and miss and the severity certainly wasn’t flagged. In Nice airport since last evening. Ryanair flight cancelled at midnight and delayed again today. Not sure when we will get moving and as usual no info from airline. At least we are safe. Terrible for those who were caught in the storm
and lost their lives. Very frightening few hours.
My husband & I have just arrived back from Nice & it was terrible last night. Downpours for 3hours easily. Our Ryanair flight attendant told us 27people did not make the flight this morning so just hoping everyone is safe.
Rip
where were the weather forecasters in all this was a warning put out
Even met eireann forecast it Thursday so would assume the French did the same.
What’s your point exactly?
They did forecast it but not the severity – it really is unprecedented and President Holland is linking it to climate change and stressing the importance of the climate change conference in Paris this December, considered to be a last chance saloon for world leaders to do the right thing, before it is too late. Current weather-related disasters are a result of emissions going back 50 or 60 years, because of the time lag, which makes it even more worrying, as this thing would keep getting worse for many decades even if we stopped all emissions tomorrow. As it is, it is going to get much worse by mid-century and positively catastrophic if we do not act with urgency to keep warming as low as possible and, if we can, below 2 degrees – if that is even possible any more.
Unprecedented? The article itself refers to two years, 1990 and 1999, when more people were killed. By all means spout you Human Caused Global Warming nonsense but please do not revert to sensationalism as many of the other “believers” of the same unproven theory do. For the record, I am not anti anything, I just happen to believe that if you have a theory and give predictions based on that theory and all those predictions turn out to be false, you revisit the theory not doctor the evidence to suit the theory.
Does your man out for a cycle know how ridiculous he looks?
have your say