AS THE RESULTS of the UK General Election rolled in during the early hours of last Friday, it became clear that the opinion pollsters had been wrong and that outgoing Prime Minister David Cameron would be returning to Number 10 Downing Street, but this time with an overall Conservative majority.
Back in 2013, in a move to appease the fractious Eurosceptic wing of his party and combat the then-rise of the UK Independence Party (UKIP) led by Nigel Farage, Cameron announced that if re-elected, he would hold a straight ‘In-Out,’ referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU by autumn 2017.
Hours after the election result, Cameron confirmed that he would keep with this promise. It is not yet clear when this referendum will take place but it may depend on what, if any, concessions Cameron might get from other EU leaders in relation to the UK’s financial contribution to the EU’s budget and also the extent to which certain EU rules and directives will apply to the UK.
How will Cameron will go about leading the referendum campaign?
Cameron’s original plan to hold the referendum by the autumn of 2017 might also be problematic due to the fact that the UK is actually due to hold the rotating Presidency of the Council of the EU in the latter half of 2017. Another potential factor in the mix is what’s happening elsewhere in the EU with the French presidential elections, in the spring of 2017, and the German federal elections in September 2017.
It remains to be seen how Cameron will go about leading the referendum campaign and what precise stance he will take, although he has signalled that he does want the UK to remain in the EU but that his government would need major reforms if that were to happen.
A significant number of Cameron’s backbenchers are resolute that they want the UK out of the EU no matter what and the same can be said for UKIP. In Northern Ireland both the DUP and UUP have said they are in favour of holding a referendum. Both have also signalled that if such a referendum was to be held today, without any reforms, that they would advocate for an EU withdrawal.
The Liberal Democrats, who shared power with Cameron in the last government, want the UK to stay in the EU while both the Labour Party and the SNP have said they don’t think a referendum was necessary and that they want the UK to remain within the EU.
A potentially fatal blow to the European project
The prospect of the UK leaving the EU presents a massive challenge to the future of the Union; its entire viability is at stake. Only Greenland has left the European Union and only after it received full devolution from Denmark. The departure of a full member, especially one the size of the UK could be a fatal blow to the European project.
Of all the Member States, Ireland would suffer most if the UK were to leave. Our original accession to the then EEC was wholly dependent on the UK joining too. The UK remains Ireland’s largest trading partner while the social and historical links cannot be overstated.
As it stands, the vast majority of treaties, agreements and trade deals that Ireland has with the UK all now come under the auspices of the treaties of the EU. If the UK were to leave, all these deals would collapse and either Ireland directly or the EU as a collective would have to negotiate new deals, which could take time and any delay could be disastrous for a recovering economy like ours.
The practical implications would also be stark for Irish people: would we require visas to travel to the UK? How much would they cost? Would we have to go through border controls in Heathrow similar to when entering the US? What will happen to all the Irish people working in the UK or the people from the UK working here; will they have to go home and apply for work permits for their current jobs?
Ireland has a crucial role to play
The Chinese proverb of ‘may you live in interesting times,’ seems to apply to what faces the EU over the short-term. EM Ireland believes that the European Union is a good thing, and that Ireland’s membership of the EU has been positive. So much of that success is allied to our strong relationship with the UK.
It is very clear that that the most important issue arising from last week’s General Election is to keep the UK in the EU. Ireland has a crucial role to play in convincing the UK that it is better off in rather than out, and in working with the rest of our EU partners to ensure such an outcome.
Noelle O’Connell is Executive Director of European Movement Ireland. European Movement Ireland is an independent, not for profit, founded in 1954 that works to develop the engagement between Ireland and the EU.
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