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IN NOVEMBER 1942, following the British rebuff of the German army at El Alamein in Egypt, then-UK Prime Minister Winston Churchill proclaimed this victory as a major turning point in the Second World War.
His words are by now well-worn:
Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end.But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.
The United Kingdom leaves the European Union tonight, but Brexit does not end there. The conclusion of the withdrawal phase is only the end of the beginning.
This is because the UK and the EU enter a transition phase on 1 February, during which little should change in daily life even though the UK will no longer hold EU membership.
The EU and UK must now negotiate agreements on their future relationship, covering a range of areas from security to trade.
An ambitious timeline
The British government says it would like to conclude these negotiations by the end of this year. Many on the EU side think this is much too short a timeframe.
International trade deals, for instance, usually take years to conclude, and Brussels would, therefore, like to extend the transition period by two years (as provided for in the EU-UK withdrawal agreement).
London, however, is currently adamant it will not agree to any extension of the transition, during which it remains aligned to EU laws and pays into the EU budget.
Both sides must take a decision on extending the transition (or not) by the end of June 2020, so the Brexit clock is already ticking again.
The core issue in those negotiations will be the trade-off between open access for the UK to the EU single market, and ongoing UK alignment with EU rules.
Crudely put, the British government must choose between a narrow interpretation of “sovereignty” and the ongoing prosperity of the UK economy.
May not be so easy
“Taking back control” of laws may appeal in principle, but in practice, almost half of UK trade is with the EU.
Brussels has offered tariff and quota-free trade to the UK, on the condition that it remains aligned with EU rules, in areas like industrial support, labour protections, product standards etc., to ensure a level trade-playing field.
The difficulty of that trade-off might explain why mixed messages have been emerging from London recently.
On 17 January the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Sajid Javid, told the Financial Times that British business should forget staying close to the EU: “There will not be alignment, we will not be a rule-taker.”
On 22 January Javid told a business audience in Davos, at the World Economic Forum, that “We won’t diverge just for the sake of it”.
For some harder Brexiteers, aligning with EU rules is akin to a “Brexit in name only” and better to trade on World Trade Organisation (WTO) terms – which would result in more barriers to trade, such as tariffs and quotas, than a more open trade deal with the EU.
If the EU and UK are unable to agree on a way forward by the end of this year, those harder Brexiteers will have their WTO-only wish.
One way around this, if both sides are unable to agree on extending the transition period by mid-summer, might be to agree on a so-called skeleton trade deal by the end of the year, containing basic objectives, and perhaps continue more detailed sectoral negotiations thereafter.
This “bare-bones” free trade agreement (FTA) would cause less friction for EU-UK trade than the WTO-only route, but it would still mean more friction than today.
A mountain to climb
No matter what happens this year, on 1 January 2021 there will more barriers to trade between Ireland and the UK, the question is how many more.
Moreover, negotiations on future EU-UK relations could take years. Even after framework negotiations conclude, in some ways Brexit will never end.
Like other non-EU European countries Switzerland and Norway, the UK will be continuously negotiating with the EU in some form or another, on one subject or other.
The EU, including the Irish government, has consistently said it wishes to have as close a relationship with the UK as possible after Brexit. It has never offered, for example, a quota and tariff-free trade deal to any other country.
True, that offer is conditional, partly to ensure that the UK does not have easier access to the 450 million-strong single market than EU members have.
As the EU member with the closest relationship with the UK, a cooperative EU-UK relationship is much more desirable for Ireland than a competitive one.
A lot hinges, therefore, on the choices the British government will make this year.
“Brexit day”
While today, “Brexit day”, is only the end of the beginning, Winston Churchill would probably have been most impressed with the emergence of such a strong European Movement in the UK.
He, after all, was one of the founding fathers of what became the European Movement International (and its British branch) after World War II.
Today, 31 January 2020 will be a sad day for all pro-Europeans, but British friends should remember Churchill’s advice to the Congress of Europe in 1948:
There is only one duty and watchword: Persevere…Persevere along all the main lines that have been made clear and imprinted upon us by the bitter experiences through which we have passed. Persevere towards those objectives which are lighted for us by all the wisdom and inspiration of the past: Persevere.
Noelle O Connell is Executive Director of the European Movement Ireland.
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The priority should be to make it good first. We need a massive improvement in the bus service. When people can depend on the bus coming on time they will use it. In Cork at least we are a long way from that.
@Windelhand: agreed.make it good first,and then concentrate on pricing.i also would not make it free,I would charge a nominal amount.
@Windelhand: It’s improving to be fair, ballincollig to carrigaline will be a great service outside of rush hour. There’s supposed to be a new 24 hour route connecting Mahon with blarney as well from what I here. It’s far from perfect but at least they’re trying to fix it.
@Windelhand: I have recently given up public transport in favour of the car. It’s cheaper to drive and significantly faster, despite the fact that I spend about 10-15 hours a week in traffic. I know my car will be outside the job, no waiting for phantom busses, or trying to squeeze on a dart or luas. I actually think I would quit my job if I had to go back to waiting at bus stops.
The service in Cork is unusable on many routes if you need to get to a destination at a particular time. Like work. There is no excuse for scheduled busses just not turning up. That happens too often for people to trust the service.
@Windelhand: the social and environmental benefits would far out weight the costs, still no bus route from Passage West to Carrigaline despite all the promises to deliver a service once they moved our health centre feom Passage to Carrigaline.
@Elizabeth Hourihane: The 220 could easily go via Passage,Monkstown and onto Carrigaline/Crosshaven, or elsedo an extension of the 223 that every second bus would be called the 223A and go via Carrigaline. The solution is easy, getting the pen pushers in the NTA to do it? More difficult. Cork have a number of single and double decker buses sitting in storage that could be put to good use this way, would the unions allow that? who knows.
@Elizabeth Hourihane: that might come once custom house relocates down to ringaskiddy. It’s crazy , there’s not something linking the two and ringaskiddy.
@Cork Truck Driver: that’s too much of a trek for the 220 , ovens, ballincollig, bishopstown,city,Douglas,rochestown, passage,monkstown,shanbally,ringaskiddy, carrigaline, crosshaven fountainstown. It’s bad enough taking 40minutes to get to carrigaline from the city as is.
@Windelhand: agree at the moment is like monday in stress cus the bus is late or never showed up , tuesday – is like having monaday’s deja vu. wednsday – it’s getting a lil better, thursday is like , not bad, friday – I dont care , weekend has began
€600 million has been spent on a lot worse before. Anyone with foresight and a bit of logic should be able to see that it would have huge positive knock-on effects and would likely pay for itself – increased economic activity, healthier public as it would encourage walking, less road maintenance needed, better city environments, faster travel times for everyone, cities become more attractive to foreign investors, and to tourists.
But no. Let’s just keep doing things the way we’ve always done them. Because it’s been working so well. Plus, I suppose they want all the petrol duty.
@Donncha: it’s €600m per year, not a once off cost
@John Meade: So that’s about 200 a year extra tax or 50 a week for less traffic, better environment, fitter people seems ok.
@Donncha: Actually amazed it would be so cheap. There are so many benefits I can think of it could well pay for itself.
@John Meade: I’m well aware that it’s a yearly cost. But with 2.3 million people working, it comes to the princely sum of a fiver a week each. That’s if they needed to raise taxes to fund it, which they should not need to do. That is fantastic value for what we would get in return.
@Donncha: there would be a big loss in revenue if everyone started ditching their cars. The government get a lot from car tax and tax in fuel. A strong insurance lobby also
@Donncha: Well said. You have put forward a case that deserves scrutiny and assessment. And if everyone used it for free then the pressure would be there to curb antisocial behaviour on public transport and make it safer for staff.
Buses and trains are travelling around half empty most of the time anyway.
@Donncha: Considering the ballooning overspend already occurring on the NCH, 600 million would be a drop in the bucket to increase economic output, and decrease the chronic congestion into and out of our major cities, caused mostly by rural commuters just trying to get to work.
Good ideas like this never seem to get off the ground. You could put 300 million into implementing this for rural communities, subsidising the end cost to commuters, and still reap the many rewards.
Of course, they’d rather sink 2 BILLION!!! on an over the top design, in a difficult to get to location, for the NCH.
@Donncha: I have a car, no public transport in my area. Why should I pay car repayments, insurance, tax fuel etc on car, and pay for others to have free travel? It’s the same as me paying for my own water well, and my tax paying for everyone else’s too
@Martin Kenny: all the better, you don’t have to wait in the rain, drive where and when you want and you have less traffic. I say keep the car!
@Martin Kenny: I agree. To apply your own logic against you.
As a Dubliner I resent my taxes subsidising rural areas that are of no benefit to me, including where you live.
@Donncha: well I’m sorry but I don’t want to pay any more tax to subside a service I never use.
@Donncha: I don’t want to use public transport. I bought my own car for that very reason….. So why should I pay a fiver a week for it
@Vin: which of your taxes subsidise me?
Charge everyone 1 euro to use Dublin bus regardless of length of journey. 100 million journeys on the bus = 100 million euro. Do same for luas and Dart. Then look at a reduced standard fare for National bus and train. Small fare and reliable service = more users = More revenue. Wouldn’t be long making up the 600 million.
@Keith O’Hanlon: Agreed. I have reason to travel to relatives near Bray, from Cork. Train-Luas-DART-bus and then a 2km walk. Its just economic for a single adult, leaving out the time. However, 2 adult and 1 child train ticket is in excess of €110. I can do the journey in the car three times for that, and carry bags easily. Absolutely no reason to use public transport whatsoever, although I’d like to, at least on occasion.
@Keith O’Hanlon: but it’s not a cost of €600m in total, it’s €600m more than it costs already with the current fares. Would take a lot more journeys to make up the money.
I would love to see free public transport but where would the extra €600m per year come from?
@George Salter: To be fair, the bus tends to be less than half the price of the train.
@Gerry Quinn: True. But a 5-year old on the bus is chaotic. Also, I then need to get from Mallow to Cork, or do Mallow- Limerick then change for Dublin… Finally, Mallow- Cork is pretty much the same price as Mallow-Galway, by bus. Lunacy.
Sure it’s free for the grey brigade already
@alan doyle: and why shouldn’t it be free for OAP and people with disabilities
@alan doyle: the use the word brigade in the journal comments section brigade are out early today.
@alan doyle: Yes Alan, of which you will be one someday and I doubt you will turn it down then
Rather than make it free, expand it. More buses, more dedicated lanes and 24 hour bus routes.
This is a fantastic idea
@Mel Fitzpatrick: No no this money needs to be spent on who really needs it, the out of control PS pay and pensions bill of course…..its getting bigger by the year and will do until it bankrupts us again.
@Peter Hughes: if it would help meet our emissions targets and avoid those fines I thinks not a bad idea. Maybe just have it as a euro per journey if using leap cards so at least there’s some nominal cost. It’ll help get people back to work in lower paying jobs that are otherwise unaffordable, and for others they will have a little more money in their back pocket to spend on VATable goods and stimulate the economy. Tourism industry would also benefit.
@Peter Hughes: I guarantee if all public transport was free the €600m would be recouped double each year.
Make it free? Why should it be free?
Surely the most important thing is make it decent first, I realise that the cities are the most important when it comes to public transport but the country in general has woeful systems. Us country folk just have to have a car to work, and that’s that, and it shouldn’t be…
Health, public transport, homelessness, its all a mess, government is so bad, but putting people of their ages in charge of a country? I mean really, 30somethings don’t know enough about life to run a country, not to mention ones who had a very cushy upbringing
@Amanda Burns: us city folk have to pay 4 to 5 times the property tax as rural folk(a percentage of that goes straight down the country to prop up broke county councils)we also have to pay a huge amount more for our properties in the first place and the cost of living is also way more expensive.this shouldn’t be………..the benefits of living in a city vs rural and visa versa.
@Amanda Burns: Ah “us country folk” living in one off housing and wanting a bus to drive by your front door every hour, a hospital in every town and a post office which can double up as a social club in every village.
@Amanda Burns: I’m willing to be that many a country road that country folk drive on to get to work is paid for predominately by urban tax dollars. But yes, I agree, it shouldn’t be free.
The service doesn’t need to be “free”. Make it affordable, reliable, plentiful, subsidise it properly. Have “park and ride” facilities all around the outskirts of Dublin. Make it attractive to use.
I would prefer that money be used to improve health services, myself.m
@WoodlandBard: history would indicate that throwing even more money into the black hole of the HSE makes no difference to the level of services. It needs root and branch reform, fewer pen pushers and more medical staff at all levels and proper professional management. By all means spend more money on it when it’s fit for purpose.
There is a fantastic Bus Service to Dublin and back every day from Wexford Town.
Bus Eireann every hour on hour.
Wexford Bus Half an hour later every hour.
In comparison it took my son 2 hours to drive me to Dublin city Centre from Naas leaving at 7.30am.
@Aine O Connor: There is nothing fantastic about the Bus Eireann bus from Wexford to Dublin unless you really like Arklow.
@Hugh Jass:
But there is the option of the Wexford Bus .
Course Ross would say that. The fine gaulers and their cronies like Ross are pushing privatisation of state run services. Perfectly doable but no will and too much in backhanders to lose
@Greg Dunne:
Any privatization of the bus services would be on the existing basis of a contract to provide for a fixed price. The cost of fares or lack thereof would be completely irrelevant, as is your comment.
That’s a long way off the extra billion we’ve agreed to in military spending thanks to PESCO
@Sarah:
Link?
@Sarah: fantasy figure.
German cities looking at this also and Lord Ross does not take in to account any of the savings that can be made when you do not have to collect revenue. He would rather give out contracts to British bus companies for profit and screw the punters getting the bus. Fares increased by 50% approximately in the 10 years since the crash and government subsidy cut in half so no investment. Maybe it’s time the citizens of this country stand up for themselves and demand better services not asking for free but at a reasonable cost.
Well, firstly it’s not clear whether €600 million additional is the actual cost or the revenue lost from making it free. They’re not necessarily the same thing. Did they subtract the costs for ticketing infrastructure and personnel for example, which wouldn’t be needed? Secondly, in any event, €600 million additional sounds like a good deal. Thirdly, of course Ross has said he is not going to do a cost-benefit analysis – that might actually show that it would actually save money to introduce free public transport, which would undermine his privatisation agenda. How much is lost to the economy due to:
- congestion (SACTRA published a report on this in the UK, decades ago, 1999 I think)
- road maintenance
- car accidents
- FDI deciding to go elsewhere because of creaking transport infrastructure
- people not getting any exercise by being stuck in their cars, rather than walking to and from the bus/train/luas
- air pollution
- fines for not meeting our international CO2 emissions obligations
€600m well spent, in my opinion. Especially when this govt has no problem overspending by much more on a children’s hospital being built in the wrong place. Or blowing €300m on unsecured Anglo bondholders. €13bn from Apple would cover it for 20 years.
@Michael Berchmans: it’s 600 million a year, it’s not a one-off.
@John Mulligan: yes John, €600m ÷ €13Billion = 21 years + change.
Excellent for myself, along with homeless couch surfers and street homeless, can live on the busses indefinitely.
The FG/Tory clowns in government have actually begun privatising the bus services in Dublin . Its been an absolute disaster in the UK, not that it would stop FG devotion to the market.
@Ronaldo Blanc: That’s what FG do copy every crap policy the Tories come up with.
Nothing is free in Ireland, if they made public transport free ff/fg would only increase something else to offset it. We are in debt of billions and shall remain so until after our children’s children’s children have passed.
When its €6.75 standard return on the Dart I’m not surprised and all the Dart stations in a heap one wonders where all the at 600 million a year goes.
It doesn’t need to be free…just more affordable! A flat rate of €1 per journey, give value to the service while allowing affordability. For example it shouldn’t be cheaper for a family of 4 to drive from the suburbs of Dublin and pay parking for 2 hours than get a bus, I am often faced with this for a day out and it really annoys me, I choose to get the bus as the kids enjoy it, even though get the bus return costs more and takes longer!
@Blah blah: I agree. Myself and the wife brought the 3 kids into town today. It costs Eur 20 on the Dart. Next time we will drive!
The Dutch have a fantastic public transport system. It’s punctual and very reliable, BUT it’s quite expensive too. You can’t have both. Prices here are reasonable, cheap if you have a leap card.
How about make all journeys on public transport free between the hours of 7am and 10am, and 5pm to 7pm, Monday to Friday. This would eliminate traffic conjestion during the commuter periods.
@neuromancer: Or free on the weekend. Get people out more and spending a few quid. That way we won’t make the city centre just a place for work and drinking. It would be great for the economy and people’s feeling of social inclusion.
I automatically got a free travel card because I’m on Carers benefit ( my son has special needs) , I don’t need it cos I drive. However my son didn’t get it?! I’d much prefer to pay less tax or fuel costs. Or prefer someone get it that actually needs it. Whole system is flawed .
No such thing as ‘free’ I guess you mean ‘tax-payer funded’
Forgot about free transport we need free healthcare been living in the UK for the last year we are a joke when it comes to doctor and prescriptions, Ireland :€205 whereas UK : 8.50 sterling
So they obviously don’t know that if it was free more would use it .
Therefore lowering the number of cars ,
we’d have more tourism within the city also bringing in more money . Basic economic scence
But it also needs to be improved first.
Free public transport would be a disaster. It would end up costing far more than 600 million. That’s just based off the number of people that pay for it. How many more people would start using it when it becomes free. It would also wipe out competition with would cause standards to drop.
@Jordan Osullivan: That’s the point to get more people using it
@Jordan Osullivan: show us your calculations Jordan
Do it. I’ll pay.
This is Ireland, remember. Nothing is, or ever will be free.
@Michael Lynch: rubbish.a certain cohort get everything free.
Ross has proved to be a huge disappointment as transport minister. His focus has been almost 100% on drink driving while he has ignored the needs of public transport to an appalling degree.
Better than wasting in on NCH
Free primary health care cmon let’s have it strait with priorities
With the possibility of a reduction in VRT and car tax receipts reducing significantly, even with the possibility of a reduction of fines with the possibility of meeting carbon emissions targets.for a change, they will never bother implementing this. Either way I’d say there would be massive USC type tax banged on us all to pay for it. Ross also said that the price of the present free travel scheme 95 million can be added to the possible cost. The scheme would be null and void if travel was free for all so he is talking pure s@@t. Basic common sense seems to be lost on our ministers.
Or to lease 6 squadrons of saab gripen fighter jets to patrol our airspace. Bs
I automatically got a free travel card because I’m on Carers benefit ( my son has special needs) , I don’t need it cos I drive. However my son didn’t get it?! I’d much prefer to pay less tax or fuel costs. Or prefer someone get it that actually needs it. Whole system is flawed .
Ok, but could you at least keep fare increases in line with inflation and not 10% increases a year.
Ross continuously punishes motorists while not offering any alternative….
No public transport to my work and half the way in no cycle lanes either.
But yeh if I forget my license I get penalty points, a fine and insurance hike for 3 years.
Good job ret@rd
Why not actually make public transport accessible by more people and make it more reliable first?
Use that money to add bus lanes to all city routes, add more regular buses at peak times, and open up closed railway lines that link our towns to cities. As much as I like greenways, our country needs infrastructure, not more tourist traps. It would also provide more affordable housing options im neighboring towns along with easier ccommmutes, and more building options. Infrastructure has really affected us during this britexist fiasco, it was the deciding factor in many companies relocation strategies.
More trains. More track.
Make it work properly…..not free!
That grand. Fire away
Cheap price all thins considered.
The level of fines Ireland faces on missing emissions targets were originally also put at €600 million per year, these have been supposedly revised down, but the point is even if the fines were €400 million per year, then you would be looking at just €200 million more per year to have free universal public transport, while simultaneously reducing emissions, which doesn’t seem so far-fetched or unobtainable when looked at from that perspective.
Forget about being free. Just provide a good service!! The TFI is a disgrace. They have raised their prices and cut services
Why would anyone even think that a transport solution in Luxembourg would be appropriate for Ireland? Luxembourg is a small place that is easy to service, without the scattered population of rural ireland.
Unless Richard boiled carrot is just talking about Dublin.
@John Mulligan: People do it all the time. Cherry pick the area within Europe (or without) that best matches what they want while ignoring the glaring issues or differences.
Outside my window, looking at a well-worn commuter pathway I see a free sidewalk and free bike lane, neither of which get much use. Beside them I see the road, which considering the cost of petrol and parking, is most definitely not free. Yet it is always busy. Making the bus and trains free will not magically cure the traffic issue. If anything it will just make it worse since the biggest problem I see with public transport (at least in Dublin and the commuter belt including parts of the surrounding counties) is capacity and coverage. Both of which would suffer if more of the transport budget went to subsidising the already existing network.
A nice big car park either side of city with a very regular bus system to discourage people taking their cars into the city and paying stupid 24/7 parking fees.
I think €600 million would cover that!
Why would we want to pay any extra when the gob*hites in Dublin are happy to subsidize transport in Ireland
Ah now We can’t afford that, but the private banks on the other hand, sure lets spread the cost of that over generations to come
Its not free though is it?
We don’t seem to learn any lessons from the Projects such as the children’s hospital, Metro North and all the other failed expensive state projects, it’s too long a list MetroLink and Busconnects are obsolete destructive primitive outdated overpriced projects that should be cancelled we should not be investing in 20th century transport infrastructure for private companies, these will turn out a costly white elephants and the taxpayer will be left with the bill.
Please stop advocating for these primitive project’s! If you don’t know the future of transport and public transit will be self-driving SHARED electric vehicles, there’s no if or buts about this, it’s going to happen it’s already happening in Phoenix Arizona,
Car ownership itself is dead, most young people don’t want to drive never mind own the liability of owning a car and nor can they afford one due to high insurance and the extortionate rents they have to pay on accommodation! the future will be shared all the car companies are changing there business model to this.
Dublin was once first with cutting edge transport infrastructure it was the Dublin to DunLaoghaire railway the first suburban railway in the world it was supposed to be a canal but visionaries went for rail
We should be first again and invest in real future proof 21st century transport infrastructure solutions
Like Elon Musk’s Loop system unveiled last December in LA please see video below.
The Boring company is breaking ground soon on the Chicago Loop project, downtown to O’Hara international airport, the same distance as Dundrum to the airport this will be built for only $1 billion and will do the journey in 12mins, compared to our 20th century rail link for €3 billion by 2027 the proposed opening of MetroLink transport technology is going to so advanced Ireland will be a laughing stock for investing in primitive outdated rail infrastructure!
Please abandon MetroLink and promote real 21st century transport [The Dublin Loop]
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