THE ALL-TOO-FAMILIAR POLITICAL landscape across these islands is undergoing substantial transformation. The snap UK General election has delivered a Labour landslide, a Conservative bloodbath, a wipeout for the Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP), and a hat trick for Sinn Féin.
People across the UK and Ireland are waking up to the end of 14 years of conservatism, a period dominated by Brexit, austerity and Boris Johnson.
Rishi Sunak’s early election has backfired stupendously for the Conservative Party with the highest seat loss in the party’s history including a slew of high-profile MPs losing their seats like Jacob Rees-Mogg, former PM Liz Truss and Johnny Mercer. The latter was a driving force of the widely condemned UK Legacy Act, a deeply contentious piece of legislation that Labour has committed to tearing up.
Labour’s landslide victory may be the lead story of this election, but as Starmer’s party prepares to take their seats on the government benches, a new slew of relationships need tending at Westminster. The current Labour leader is decidedly not Blair and certainly not Corbyn; his politics fall much nearer to the centre, so whilst “change” was the party’s slogan, a Labour government is not expected to be radical.
Nevertheless, the Irish government is surely breathing a sigh of relief; the Conservatives’ reckless disregard for British-Irish relations and the Good Friday Agreement have frayed relationships to the breaking point, with Ireland formally taking the UK government to court over the Legacy Act.
With only 18 seats, Northern Ireland played a relatively small part in this election, but it packed punches; none as shocking as the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) MP Ian Paisley Jr losing his seat in North Antrim. The seat has been held by a Paisley for 54 years, with Jr stepping into his father’s seat in 2010 to maintain what was considered the safest of DUP seats.
DUP leader Gavin Robinson held his seat in East Belfast but make no mistake – this election was a disaster for the Unionist party with losses in North Antrim, South Antrim and Lagan Valley. East Derry almost joined that list of political casualties, with Sinn Féin just 179 votes behind the DUP’s Gregory Campbell.
With Unionism splintered in this election, the DUP losses were to the Alliance Party, the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP), and the Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) – a party backed by Nigel Farage’s Reform that sits even more right than the DUP.
For Alliance, it was a mixed bag; the party gained in Lagan Valley with Sorcha Eastwood becoming the first woman elected to Westminster in the constituency and winning the seat held by former DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson for over two decades. But the party lost North Down, a painful blow for deputy leader Stephen Farry who was outpolled by independent unionist Alex Easton. Going forward, expect Alliance to maintain efforts to prioritise East Belfast, Strangford, and East Antrim as top targets.
For the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP), this election was all about holding; both sitting MPs are returned to Westminster – albeit with reduced majorities. In Foyle, Colum Eastwood’s majority has been reduced from 17,110 to 4166, closed in by Sinn Féin’s Sandra Duffy. Sinn Féin will be happy with this result; this will be a top target for the party in the next election.
Sinn Féin may be recovering from a disappointing election in the Republic, but north of the border the party is now the largest at the Local, Assembly, and Westminster levels.
Both the Irish and UK governments cannot ignore the growth of nationalism or what it means for the constitutional future of the island of Ireland. Sinn Féin has not only emerged as the largest party but has increased its vote share in all seven seats that it held.
With a Labour government at the wheel, the Irish government has a more amenable partner in advancing conversations on constitutional change; this isn’t divisive – it is a right enshrined within the Good Friday Agreement and a constitutional aspiration for Ireland. The Irish government must seize the opportunity for cooperation with a party that led UK negotiations on the Good Friday Agreement and create a democratic pathway for the people of this island to have their say in their own future.
Emma DeSouza is a writer and campaigner.
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