AS TALKS BETWEEN Ukrainian and Russian officials draw to a close, attacks have intensified on key strategic targets throughout Ukraine.
Five days into the invasion, the Russian attack has faltered somewhat. On Monday, the Russians declared that they had neutralised Ukrainian airspace and that they had achieved air superiority throughout the country.
This would suggest that the initial aerial assault phase of the invasion was drawing to a close giving way to a more robust ground campaign.
Where next?
Air and missile attacks will continue in direct support of a number of key axes of advance. Around Kyiv, Russian forces are reported to be reorganising, concentrating their forces and preparing for an armoured thrust deep into the heart of the city – towards the presidential and government offices.
This assault is designed to effect regime change in deposing Volodymyr Zelensky – by killing or capturing him and his family. Zelensky has acknowledged that he is ‘target number one’ for Vladimir Putin.
Zelensky’s decision to stand and fight in Kyiv will be particularly provocative to the Kremlin. If he had fled the country with his family, this would have had a devastating effect on the morale and command and control of the Ukrainian military.
Thus far, the Ukrainian military has remained coherent and has held ground, repelling many of the probing attacks mounted by Russian forces. These initial engagements have been with reconnaissance elements – highly mobile elements of the Russian military.
These probing attacks are designed to draw hostile fire in order to establish the location and strength of Ukrainian positions in Kharkiv, Dnipro, Mariupol and Kyiv.
‘Bloody and destructive’
In the coming days, the Russians will move their main forces forward into these urban centres. This will represent a very bloody and destructive phase of the invasion.
The Ukrainian military have a number of strategic options open to them. They can try to prevent the Russians entering their cities, thereby creating siege-like scenarios such as the Sarajevo and Mostar sieges during the Bosnian conflict. Or, the Ukrainians can draw Russian forces deep into the urban environment – allowing their tanks and armoured vehicles to penetrate towards the city centre.
Narrow city streets and alleyways, overlooked by tall buildings would rob the Russian armour of much of the tactical advantages afforded them in open ground. It would force Russian tanks and armoured fighting vehicles to filter into columns and enter a maze of streets filled with anti-tank obstacles and anti-tank mines.
In either scenario, as I write, the Ukrainian military will be preparing elaborate defence networks in Kyiv, Kharkiv and hurried defences in Mariupol. These defensive positions will be mutually supported with interlocking arcs of observation and carefully laid fields of fire.
From these positions – deep within buildings and basements, the Ukrainian military will fire heavy weapons at close range at Russian armour and supporting infantry. These weapon systems will include shoulder-launched missiles, artillery and anti-aircraft weapons used in the direct-fire role, mortars and heavy machine guns.
This would allow the Ukrainian defenders to destroy large numbers of Russian vehicles and inflict heavy losses on supporting forces. The price for such a defence would be the complete and total destruction of cities such as Kyiv, Kharkiv and Dnipro.
Confronted with urban warfare, against a well organised and dug-in defence, the Russians will have to resort to massive use of force in order to dislodge the Ukrainian military.
Civilian victims
These would resemble the tactics used in horrific urban battles such as the siege of Stalingrad during World War 2 – or more recently, Russian military operations in urban centres such as Grozny in Chechnya.
In such a scenario, the Russians would be forced to resort to street by street, house by house fighting in order to ‘neutralise’ and then secure and hold sectors of the city.
This incremental form of battle would be extremely costly to both sides and would result in total destruction.
The Russian military has a track record of determination in such campaigns with little regard for the fate of the civilian population – or even their own troops. Most recently, in Syria, Russian forces deliberately targeted hospitals and civilian targets in order to drive Islamic State and anti-Assad forces from their city strongholds.
The Russians will use this recently gained experience to shape their operations in Ukraine. It has been widely reported that weapons have been issued to much of the male population by the Ukrainian authorities – with many citizens acquiring their own weapons and ammunition. The Russians will use this as a pretext to justify the indiscriminate use of force among the civilian population.
It is unlikely that Russian forces will – consistent with the provisions of the Geneva Conventions and the laws of armed conflict – provide humanitarian evacuation corridors to allow the civilian population to leave Ukraine’s major cities.
Despite the fact that many civilians have already fled, there will still be large numbers of civilians who will not be in a position to flee. These will include elderly people, people with disabilities and people in hospitals – and many families who simply do not have the means to leave, literally with no place to run to.
Thus, the scene is set for the major ground component of Russia’s invasion. This will involve massive loss of life and destruction of property on a grand scale. If Ukrainian forces hold their ground to any extent – inflicting heavy losses on Russian troops and delaying or denying a ‘victory’ to Putin, he may sanction the use of very heavy weapons such as thermobaric weapons in order to destroy whole sectors of the Ukrainian defence.
Unpredictable Putin
As I write, Putin is already impatient with the slow progress of the Russian military. He will feel humiliated and will not tolerate any loss of face in this military operation. It is likely that the initial successes enjoyed by the Ukraine military – generating a false sense of security and optimism – will soon pass, to be replaced by a brutal conflict involving major civilian and military losses.
Against this background, Putin has hinted at nuclear retaliation against European support for Ukrainian forces and has put his nuclear forces on ‘special alert’. Invoking this threat – so early in the conflict points to the risk of escalation in this war. As such, this is not just a war for the survival of Ukraine, it represents a war for the hearts, minds and values of all of Europe.
In calculating his invasion of Ukraine, Putin relied on a weak European Union and NATO. He also expected Ukrainian resistance to evaporate in the face of a Russian blitzkrieg. In short, Putin has relied on 1942 strategy and tactics in 2022.
However, this is not 1942. This is a conflict that will be live-streamed worldwide with every atrocity and mass casualty incident viewed in real-time throughout Europe and the world – including Russia itself.
Even if Putin succeeds in destroying Ukraine’s cities – he cannot hope to effectively occupy the country. This conflict, if escalated, has the potential to become a drawn-out war of attrition that could destroy all parties to the conflict – militarily, politically, economically and in humanitarian terms. It will certainly become unsustainable for Russia and the Russian people.
At this point, the ongoing talks between Russian and Ukrainian officials offer a very slim hope of a last-minute reprieve from this nightmare scenario. However, neither side looks likely to back down. This could become a zero sum game – a life and death struggle to avert the destruction of Ukraine and bring about the end of Putin’s leadership.
Dr Tom Clonan is a former Captain in the Irish armed forces. He is a security analyst and academic, lecturing in the School of Media in DIT. You can follow him on Twitter.
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