IT IS NEARLY eight years since I left Scotland and moved to Ireland. And a lot has happened in that time, both personally and in the world at large.
As my new family developed, economies crumbled, politics shifted and the landscape of towns and cities across the country changed seemingly forever.
Old certainties and familiarities faded to be replaced by insecurity and desperation.
Ireland’s people bore the brunt of it and undoubtedly looked across the water with some degree of envy as their British neighbours have complained vociferously about government policies and cuts that can only be described as ‘Austerity Lite’ in comparison to those imposed by the Dáil.
Not for one moment would I suggest that there is any desire in Ireland to return to the dark old days of Union with Great Britain. Independence was hard earned and it’s precious. That was quickly apparent to me as ‘in-comer’ and easily respected. The history of struggle, repression and repeated warring with a larger neighbour is ingrained in my psyche as a Scot.
I was brought up to be and remain a passionate patriot undiluted by years of exile. I optimistically anticipate the start of every Six Nations, read the Scottish papers daily and weep with the Tartan Army as glorious defeat follows tragic disappointment with unwavering regularity.
I know my Scottish history. I’ve wandered old battlefields, studied the machinations of rebellion, treaty, Empire and emigration. I frequently revel in the endeavour of a small nation that has given the world amongst other things, the telephone, television, postage stamps, penicillin, ATM’s, the pedal bike, pneumatic tyres, hypodermic needles, MRI’s, golf, rugby sevens and (surprising to many in Ireland) tarmac.
Scotland’s history is rich and its potential remains unfathomable (much like my new adopted home) but the 18th September heralds a pivotal and perhaps decisive moment for the people of Scotland – a vote for or against Independence from the United Kingdom.
This is not a vote forged from the fires of rebellion, war or economic suffering but one crafted through political disillusionment and disengagement from the main Westminster parties.
The Scottish National Party (SNP) has seized the opportunity to fill the void, capture protest votes and appeal to voters in an impassioned and vibrant manner securing a majority (albeit only 43% of the vote) of seats in the devolved Scottish Parliament for the past seven years.
The SNP has succeeded in forcing this referendum and vociferously locked horns with an increasingly uncomfortable coalition of the national political parties (Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrats) collectively known as the ‘Better Together’ campaign who have striven to retain and galvanise support for a Union that dates back to 1707.
Keeping its identity
Scotland was, at that time, economically destitute. It committed itself fully to this Union of Nations yet retained a distinctive identity within the United Kingdom that reaches far beyond tartan shortbread tins, whisky, Braveheart and bagpipes. A separate legal system, education structures, religion and latterly its uniquely devolved parliament which has delivered free prescriptions and scrapped university tuition fees have ensured marked and substantive social and cultural differences immediately you cross the border from England.
The institutional and anecdotal injustices of being the ‘smaller partner’ or a less populous regional backwater have fuelled a powerful ‘football terrace’ nationalism in Scotland that I’ve witnessed since childhood, participated in and indeed still endures with me today whenever England ‘take the field’. It’s ingrained and it’s appealing at a base level.
The Nationalists have delved into and stirred this melting pot of emotion, legacy and sentiment with relish.
They have sought and gained support from those most susceptible and open to simple messages of entitlement, justice and historical restitution. Claiming back Scotland’s oil revenue, dispensing with Westminster’s southern bias, guaranteeing the people get the government they actually vote for and casting aside the warmongering ‘Tory toffs’ resonates well across large swathes of the population. A Scotland, they are told are told, without the shackles of UK debt and austerity measures, will be one of the richest nations on earth.
Those that counsel caution, challenge foolhardy assumptions or highlight obvious frailties in policies are summarily dismissed as negative scaremongers, full of bluff and bluster, unpatriotic and mere puppets of the establishment. The ‘Yes’ campaign has sought to avoid detailed scrutiny of its plans, preferring to focus on the heady mix of saltires, positivity and passionate rhetoric.
You may have detected a slight negative hue to my summary of the SNP campaign? It would in fact, be entirely accurate to say that I’m squarely in the ‘No’ camp. And its the facts (or lack of), despite my underlying patriotic predisposition that have led me to this position.
A majority ‘Yes’ vote next Thursday will see Scotland unilaterally leave the United Kingdom.
The institutions and apparatus of the Union will stay with the remaining constituent parts of the UK. The Yes campaign, disingenuously in my opinion, have played down the immediate and long term consequences of this scenario.
Despite warnings from an overwhelming majority of their own business community, international analysts and experts about the impact on investments, jobs and finances, they are intent on introducing a border with England and a market that accounts for 90% of their exports.
They are happy to forfeit EU and NATO membership in the hope that despite guidance and advice to the contrary ‘common sense’ will prevail on the part of these institutions and arrangements entirely beneficial to a newly independent Scotland will miraculously appear.
The SNP have cultivated the image of a divorce, where assets and institutions are split fairly and amicably. However, if a Yes vote is returned next week, two sovereign governments will be seeking to negotiate the best terms of their own people.
Full Currency Union is promoted as the best deal for Scotland by the SNP who up until recently actively sought to discard the Pound for the Euro. This however, requires the Bank of England to effectively underwrite a now foreign state and is unequivocally unacceptable to the other main political parties.
Enter Plan B or more accurately ‘Plan B’s. In an attempt to placate growing voter concerns, the SNP announced that a variety of currency options were available to an Independent Scotland.
However with seven days remaining, they have been unable or unwilling to inform the electorate as to what they actually are! Sterlingisation (using the £ unilaterally) in a so-called Panama model, would be the next likely option but one fraught with huge costs and pitfalls not least on jobs with the estimated decimation of around 100,000 Scottish financial services jobs.
The recent battle cry of ‘It’s Our Pound Too’ seems, if polls are to be believed, to have stemmed these concerns and galvanised support for the Yes campaign. It is of course a hollow claim buttressed by future assertions of oil revenues that far outstrip the most optimistic projections of a declining industry and suggestions that the immediate cost of new institutions, mechanisms and infrastructure of the State will cost an unbelievably conservative £250m (its worthy to note that the Better Together predict these same costs will rise in excess of £2.5bn).
Despite my overwhelming passion for my homeland, I’ve never found it at all incongruous that I could be both British and Scottish (often interchangeably and confusingly for those near and dear to me).
I always felt that the overlaps that bound the peoples of the United Kingdom together were every bit as strong as the differences that set them apart. I had confidence that the benefits the Union afforded, far outweighed the risks, uncertainties and costs of breaking away.
Personally, I find it easy to differentiate between the emotional draw of independence and the practical realities of separation. I feel the case for Independence has neither been made or proved and vague promises and rousing soundbites are no alternative for fact and detailed analytical planning.
Yet recent polls suggest that the Yes camp have have secured some late momentum. This they have achieved whilst ignoring warnings and dire predictions and wrapping their campaign in a seemingly intoxicating blend of euphoric optimism. It seems the SNP are much more concerned about the result than the consequences.
So I await September 19th with trepidation and concern. I have no vote. I’m a mere interested observer from foreign shores. My hope is that Scotland remains part of the United Kingdom and moves on to bigger and greater success but the obvious divisions the referendum has highlighted and fuelled within the nation won’t likely evaporate the moment the polls close on Thursday evening.
Either way, the future for Scotland it seems, remains uncertain and challenging.
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