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Larry Donnelly Trump is in hot legal water - will there be a tipping point for him?

As Trump pleads not guilty in his subversion case, our columnist looks at whether any of this will affect him in the polls.

“THE CLIMATE CHANGE agenda is a hoax!”

So bellowed Vivek Ramaswamy on the stage at the first Republican presidential debate in Milwaukee last week.

It was surprising that his rivals focused much of their attention on and directed their ire toward the 38-year-old billionaire entrepreneur, rather than targeting Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who surveys show is closest to the clear frontrunner, Donald Trump, albeit still a huge distance behind.

Ramaswamy, who posted a video online of himself playing tennis earlier in the day and claimed that was how he prepared for verbal combat with seven vastly more experienced contestants, has a flair for the outrageous. His irrational assertion about the climate – which flies in the face of science and, at the end of an extraordinary summer of calamitous weather incidents, defies common sense – is par for the course.

republican-presidential-candidate-businessman-vivek-ramaswamy-speaks-during-a-republican-presidential-primary-debate-hosted-by-fox-news-channel-wednesday-aug-23-2023-in-milwaukee-ap-photomorry Republican presidential candidate businessman Vivek Ramaswamy speaks during a Republican presidential primary debate hosted by FOX News Channel. Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

Those who are dismissive of the son of Indian immigrants to the United States are correct in that his chances of being the GOP standard-bearer are minimal, yet they would be wise to remember that in 2016 a wholly untested, long-shot aspirant, Trump, took a similarly irregular approach to candidate forums. His alternatively bombastic and nasty rhetoric met the mood of millions of Americans sick of politics as usual and propelled him all the way to the White House.

The elephant not in the room

The story of this debate was arguably Trump’s absence. He and his advisers calculated that, with an enormous lead, he could only be damaged by participating. Accordingly, he skipped it and has said that he won’t be at the next clash either.

This strategy will not hurt his standing with hard-core adherents. One wonders whether opting out could irk other grassroots conservatives who have drifted to his corner because they deem pending criminal matters against Trump to be driven by leftist prosecutors, but expect presidential contenders to respect the traditions of the selection process.

At any rate, legal developments since have rendered what transpired in Wisconsin’s biggest city yesterday’s news. The arrests of Trump and 18 others in Atlanta instantly dominated the headlines. In particular, the mugshot of a heavily made-up, scowling ex-commander-in-chief featured in the papers, as well as on television, computer and smartphone screens, throughout the US and globally.

former-president-donald-j-trump-has-been-arrested-and-booked-at-the-fulton-county-ga-jail-upon-booking-trump-was-assigned-inmate-number-p01135809-before-his-surrender-trump-was-granted-a-2000 Donald Trump's booking photo after he was booked on 13 state felony charges in his attempts to reverse his 2020 election loss in Georgia. Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

Speaking bluntly, it was the stuff of nightmares for right-thinking people. We Americans are taught from childhood to revere our democratic institutions, the presidency perhaps foremost among them. To see former President Trump in this light, regardless of one’s opinion of him, was profoundly saddening. To see how brazen he was afterward was positively revolting.

Naturally, he viewed this as an opportunity to raise money. Trump disciples are snapping up “mugshot merch” and helping the billionaire to pay his high-priced litigators in so doing. He has just pleaded not guilty there and will fight the charges vigorously.

Save the date

There was another, potentially very significant court hearing this week. In Washington, DC, Tanya Chutkan, the federal judge presiding over the case against Trump relating to his and unnamed allies’ efforts to overturn the result of the 2020 election, ruled that the trial will begin on 4 March 2024.

She rejected the prosecution’s request to get going in January but delivered a stinging rebuke to Trump’s counsel, John Lauro, who had sought to push things out until 2026.

At this moment, the legal and political processes appear irretrievably destined to collide. To say that the US is in uncharted waters is an understatement. Again, observers from afar should take any firm predictions made by political pundits or expert attorneys on cable news networks as to how this will unfold with a large grain of salt. The fact is that none of us knows.

The 4 March date set by Judge Chutkan immediately precedes “Super Tuesday,” when women and men in more than a dozen states will decide who they want to represent the GOP at the top of the ticket. Fully one-third of the delegates required to be declared the winner at July’s Republican National Convention, also in Milwaukee, will be up for grabs.

Trump’s lawyers may deploy an array of delay tactics, however. They will file a plethora of pre-trial motions and, if unsuccessful, will mount appeals. Even if expedited, these manoeuvres could stall proceedings in Washington, DC, in New York, in Florida, and in Georgia.

What is a near certainty is that at some critical juncture(s) in 2024, Donald Trump will be a defendant in a weighty criminal case with a prison sentence looming if he is found guilty. If the parties are kept to the ambitious timeframes established by the respective judges, it could be that the Republican nominee for president is a convicted felon.

Two questions

Now that we have a legal timeline, in addition to the election schedule, what has long been the subject of conjecture is concretising. That simultaneous happenings in the realms of law and politics are impending only gives rise to further speculation. Two intertwined hypothetical questions, posed previously in this space, have become very real.

usa-24th-aug-2023-supporters-of-former-president-donald-trump-congregate-outside-the-fulton-county-jail-on-the-day-mr-trump-is-expected-to-surrender-to-authorities-after-being-indicted-over-his-at Supporters of former president Donald Trump congregate outside the Fulton County Jail on the day Trump surrendered to authorities after being indicted over his attempts to overturn the results of the state's 2020 presidential election. Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

Will these trials thwart Trump from campaigning effectively? It probably won’t make a major difference in the primary, yet going into and out of courthouses in the autumn, with salacious details featuring in daily reportage, would be unlikely to convince the small cohort of floating voters who determine the outcome of tight presidential elections in the US that they should back Trump.

In the meantime, will there be a tipping point, when enough of the 45th president’s supporters accept that there is just too much trouble swirling and that their adored champion cannot prevail in November?

In this scenario, which DeSantis, Ramaswamy, Pence, Haley, Scott, et al base their hopes on and pray for incessantly, Trump’s followers gravitate before it’s too late toward the person they consider second best and ready to beat Joe Biden. They may have to choose which is stronger: their love of Trump or loathing of Biden?

Regrettably, the polling suggests the former will triumph. There are no signs of a tipping point on the horizon. As such, we citizens of the US will soon get sick and tired of hearing the word unprecedented to describe ongoing events. In our parlance, we had better buckle up and hold on for a wild ride.

For we – and people around the world who are stakeholders in the workings of American democracy, though they might wish they were not – are staring down the barrel of a year that seems bound to be… unprecedented.

Larry Donnelly is a Boston lawyer, a Law Lecturer at the University of Galway and a political columnist with TheJournal.ie.

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    Mute Catherine Mc
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    May 11th 2016, 4:51 PM

    Groundhog day yet again

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    Mute Bobby Phelan
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    May 11th 2016, 6:31 PM

    I would love to believe enda but then i remember this https://youtu.be/27UL3tZW1bk

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    Mute Bobby Phelan
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    May 11th 2016, 6:46 PM

    Ff fg copying sf now, sf solgan fairness equality accountability now ff fg fair equal but wait for it no accountability no accountability for the wealthy fg ff taking other peoples ideas for their own political gain is low

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    Mute Catherine Mc
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    May 11th 2016, 7:31 PM

    One of the things I remember from last government was Ends saying every 100 days he would tell us the general public, the state of affairs of the country and how the government was preforming, he did it once if memory serves me right, does he really expect us to swallow that tripe again ?

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    Mute Tom Collins
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    May 11th 2016, 7:48 PM

    In fairness Enda is a man of his word???

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    Mute Darren Moore
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    May 11th 2016, 4:53 PM

    Lots of promises and goals but absolutely no plan on how to deliver on any of it . Everything will take an age with commitees and reports and the like .

    109
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    Mute UndieGrundy
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    May 11th 2016, 4:56 PM

    These are only the first 100 day promises. They mean absolutely nothing. Laughable this government was cobbled together at all. Soon as I saw the name Kappone on the ministerial list. all I could do was laugh. I think this government should be made fun of. Nothing more.

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    Mute Bobby Phelan
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    May 11th 2016, 6:52 PM

    Enda said at the start he is going to continue with the recovery so did ff,recovery = austerity the banks come first

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    Mute Deborah Behan
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    May 11th 2016, 8:15 PM

    So are they admitting the last government was not about equality because that would be the first truth in a long time.

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    Mute niall
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    May 11th 2016, 4:50 PM

    Hahahahahahahahaha!!!!

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    Mute David Thomas
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    May 11th 2016, 4:53 PM

    My sentiment exactly!!

    59
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    Mute brian boru
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    May 11th 2016, 5:07 PM

    How is it fair when we have a police state where people are arrested for their political views?

    http://utv.ie/News/2016/05/10/Arrests-at-peaceful-water-protest-condemned-58753

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    D H
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    Mute D H
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    May 11th 2016, 5:15 PM

    “We shall live in a fair society with the laws of the land and the rules of societ being fairer for the few than the many……

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    Mute Brian Deane
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    May 11th 2016, 8:14 PM

    Curious to see how ‘equality’ has become the great ‘mortal sin’ idea of our age where everyone dutifully geneflects before the high altar of PC correctness. How about equality of opportunity rather than equality of outcome? Only a lightweight like Kenny could be bullied like this.

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    Mute Eyepopper
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    May 11th 2016, 4:56 PM

    We’ll be equal.

    It’s just some will be more equal than others.

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    Mute Shakka1244
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    May 11th 2016, 4:51 PM

    I think I may have heard this before from the previous Government !

    84
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    Mute Peter King
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    May 11th 2016, 4:51 PM

    If only the economy was promise based.

    81
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    Mute David Thomas
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    May 11th 2016, 4:55 PM

    But these people and their advisors (bankers) are masters of economics….. what could go wrong (again)!!!

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    Mute For Connolly
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    May 11th 2016, 4:54 PM

    Just words on a page. And you should never judge governments by their words, only their actions. We’ve seen how FG act in government over the past 5 years. Vicious and crippling measures taken against teh most vulnerable, while the haves and have mores laugh all the way to the bank. Not even going into SiteServ, NAMA, Project Eagle etc.

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    Mute Tom Burke
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    May 11th 2016, 5:08 PM

    FF vowed to end zero hour contracts in the workplace. How quiet they gave gone now.

    56
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    Mute Sideshow Brendan
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    May 11th 2016, 4:55 PM

    What is all this bulls**t about a lack of housing? Walk absolutely any town or city in the country and there are plenty of empty houses. Not just ghost estates. But idle buildings in city centres. And what do we do? Go on sure, build more houses. Why not try and do the right thing and actually force the owners of these properties to use/lease them to the government or else introduce heavy penalties for leaving them idle

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    Mute William Clay
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    May 11th 2016, 4:57 PM

    Why can’t they be pulled up on this, it’s not like they haven’t made these promises before. Why can’t they be held accountable to their ‘vows ‘? It truly wouldn’t surprise me when they release this fluff, they head to the dail bar and have a good laugh.

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    Mute Aoife
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    May 11th 2016, 5:07 PM

    Didn’t they promise similar five years ago.

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    Mute Peter Buchanan
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    May 11th 2016, 5:05 PM

    Where is quality fibre broadband for rural households ?

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    Mute Peter Fechter
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    May 11th 2016, 5:45 PM

    Yet to be “rolled out”…

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    Mute Bobby Phelan
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    May 11th 2016, 6:50 PM

    Your broadband is all ready kicked to the kerb peter.They dont want the mass population getting educated on their shenanigans.

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    Mute Colin Daly
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    May 11th 2016, 4:59 PM

    Are they going to …Rob..the banks owned by the public to fund all this ….or is it a Dallas like dream that Enda is having

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    Mute RandomAct Of Kindnes
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    May 11th 2016, 5:08 PM

    We will do this. We will do that. We will also rinse and repeat so we will.

    29
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    Mute garry slattery
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    May 11th 2016, 5:00 PM

    The government are putting €100 million to fund the wild Atlantic way for tourism, they won’t even build houses and have loads of change from€450 million for housing last year

    27
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    Mute Silverharp Harp
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    May 11th 2016, 5:02 PM

    equality is a bit of a nonsense idea, I’d settle for “don’t take the p1ss! ” which is still beyond this shower

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    Mute Scarr
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    May 11th 2016, 4:52 PM

    Equity > equality

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    Mute Val Rossi
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    May 11th 2016, 5:46 PM

    I hate Enda Kenny.

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    Mute Tweed Cap
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    May 11th 2016, 5:05 PM

    FAIRy tale more like

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    Mute Fiona deFreyne
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    May 11th 2016, 5:33 PM

    I don’t believe it although I know that many will be suckered by the intentionally false promises.

    FG protects the privileged few at the expense of the under privileged many. That is FG’s core value. That is its raison d’etre.

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    Mute Willy
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    May 11th 2016, 4:58 PM

    Chuckle’s , I believe them this time.. Lol..

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    Mute David Thomas
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    May 11th 2016, 5:14 PM

    When have they ever let us down before? Lol

    19
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    Mute Epi Retro
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    May 11th 2016, 5:09 PM

    Fairness Fudge Cake: The Fine Gael & Fianna Fail master flan to keep honesty and accountability out of politics.

    Getting them to define this stuff in concrete terms will be like trying to herd cats while eating soup with a fork.

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    Mute leartius
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    May 11th 2016, 5:23 PM

    Well Susan, if you compare this programme for government with the last, you will find that the only difference is that FG can’t blame FF this time around. Maybe you should but a family member forward for election in the local elections as you should be rewarded for your loyality to FG and the pure lies it pubilishes. An equal and fair society is not possible when our default leader but his party before our country, will lick the German jack boots while is own people que for a hospital bed. While landlords make there tenants pay their property tax without any fear of prosecution. every crisis so far is the fault of governments,we have being plundered for generations from evoting machine to property bubbles. We are still paying a levy for bailing out PMPA in the eighties added with the levy for bailing out Quinn insurance. We are a curropt nations forcing working family’s to pay for everyone else.

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    Mute rory conway
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    May 11th 2016, 4:53 PM

    Reminiscent of Declan Costelloes Just Society document way back when.

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    Mute Damocles
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    May 11th 2016, 5:09 PM

    So the state will be awful to all of us … equally. ;)

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    Mute Seán Ó Gríofa
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    May 11th 2016, 5:35 PM

    So I’m guessing high taxation is staying to pay for all of this…..

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    Mute Tim Brennan
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    May 11th 2016, 6:02 PM

    The only promise they will keep is to fill their pockets with plenty of cash from tax payers hard earned money. Never seen a poor politician but to keep their hands in their pockets as they are given freebies at every hands turn

    11
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    Mute Séa Graham
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    May 11th 2016, 5:51 PM

    Bol***x. All animals are equal but some are more equal than others. They’ll have promises coming out their ears on this, that and the other but the status quo will cary on. Nothing but back scratching till the next GE. Then it will all start again at square one

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    Mute Peter Higgins
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    May 11th 2016, 5:26 PM

    WE’LL SEE…

    8
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    Mute Neuville-Kepler62F
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    May 11th 2016, 9:48 PM

    Enda Kenny 1994 “It is morally wrong, unjust and unfair to tax a persons family home”

    So we can look forward to scrapping of the odious LPT “Local Property Tax” on family homes like Italy

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    Mute John Reid
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    May 11th 2016, 6:05 PM

    So much for a Fine Gael-led Government with no Labour Party attached to it. There is no political party in Dail Eireann seeking low government spending and low tax rates. Every party in Dail Eireann, like monkeys subject to groupthink, pursues yet higher spending and ultimately higher taxes! This is not good.

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    Mute Neuville-Kepler62F
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    May 11th 2016, 9:25 PM

    27,000 say the Irish Motor tax is grossly “Unfair” Petition at:- https://www.change.org/p/unfair-car-tax-law

    Read what people are saying re this most unfair regressive tax at https://www.change.org/p/unfair-car-tax-law/c

    When will the new fair cabinet resolve this?

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    Mute Neuville-Kepler62F
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    May 11th 2016, 11:42 PM
    3
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    Mute John F
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    May 11th 2016, 5:59 PM

    Not one mention of reducing the usc, again they are forgetting about all this people that are working and scrapping by paying all their bills.

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    Mute james r
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    May 11th 2016, 6:06 PM

    Man the lies & liars in this joke of a government is unreal .. Wouldn’t know fairness if it bit them on the ass

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    Mute Daffy the Bear
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    May 11th 2016, 6:43 PM

    Everyone to be equally fu(ked over..

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    Mute Catherine Hayward
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    May 11th 2016, 7:29 PM

    It makes me want to cry when I think of the wages and pensions these people get whether they screw up or not they just can’t go wrong financially

    5
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    Mute Mick Kavanagh
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    May 11th 2016, 6:01 PM

    We will all equally be bent over

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    Mute Les Behan
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    May 11th 2016, 7:13 PM

    “Fair play? New programme for government is promising equality for all”

    So exactly the same as the last programme for government, lots of empty words and very little done.

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    Mute Robin Hilliard
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    May 11th 2016, 7:09 PM

    Will the new government guarantee equal access to all children to the nation’s government-funded schools?

    Or will they still be letting the unelected, unaccountable, supposedly childless priesthood of the Catholic Church say which kids will be educated and which will be pushed to the back of the queue?

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    Mute Dave Spier
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    May 11th 2016, 7:05 PM

    It should be reworded to “in the 100 days of this government…”, as that’s all I think it may last

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    Mute Brendan Keegan
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    May 11th 2016, 10:25 PM

    I wouldn’t believe anything this shit say. Why can’t they just go away and let someone else try to restore this country

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    Mute Adrian
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    May 11th 2016, 8:41 PM

    These useless muppets haven’t done it before so why’s it gonna be different this time. Equality to this lot is done by screwing everybody but themselves with unreasonable taxes then squandering all the money through horrendously poor decisions and management.

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    Mute Daniel Doran
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    May 11th 2016, 9:25 PM

    You ask me Ireland is avery fair now. Seems like the new slogan actually means “the work shy whingers run things now, we’ll throw the career dole hounds a ticker tape parade with welfare cheques”

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    Mute brains for rocks
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    May 12th 2016, 7:40 AM

    Government and promises shouldn’t be allowed share the same sentence

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    Mute Stephen Kearon
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    May 12th 2016, 12:22 AM

    Public service underfunding ? More like over funding of public service salaries with zero accountability

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