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THE COUNTDOWN TO a second Scottish independence referendum appears to have begun after Prime Minister Theresa May laid out the course towards a “hard” Brexit – but Scots are as divided as ever.
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said another vote was “more likely” than ever after May outlined her plan to pull the country out of the EU’s single market despite Scotland’s objections this week.
“Time is fast running out for the UK government to convince us that they care one jot about Scotland’s interests,” Sturgeon told the Scottish parliament on Thursday.
“If they don’t, Scotland does face a choice: do we go down the damaging path set out by Theresa May… or do we want to take control over the future of our country?”
Following a meeting with Brexit minister David Davis on Thursday, Sturgeon’s representative Mike Russell said: “The clock is ticking”.
Scotland voted in 2014 by a margin of 55 to 45 percent to stay in the United Kingdom.
But Sturgeon argues that last year’s vote for Brexit has left Scotland in “uncharted waters” since a majority of Scots instead opted to stay in the EU.
She has put forward proposals for Scotland to be allowed to remain in the single market even as the rest of Britain leaves and has drafted an independence referendum bill just in case.
Her independence ally Patrick Harvie, co-convener of the Scottish Greens whose votes she needs to get a second referendum through parliament, has predicted it will be held some time in 2018.
‘Tension in the family’
The dilemma for Sturgeon is that many Scots say the EU referendum has not changed their minds on independence.
The latest poll of 1,002 respondents carried out by BMG Research for the Herald newspaper last month found 55 percent against and 45 percent in favour — the same split as in the 2014 vote.
Mother and daughter Irene and Cara Henney, from Paisley on the edge of Glasgow, are typical of the generational divide seen in both the independence and EU referendums.
Irene, 55, who works in sales, said no to independence but yes to Brexit.
“Sturgeon has lost sight of what matters to the Scottish people, like health and education… By calling for a second referendum she’s probably alienating a lot of people,” she said.
Cara, 18, a student, voted yes to independence in her first ever national vote after the Scottish government lowered the voting age to 16.
Cara missed the EU referendum, which was reserved for over-18s, but said she would have voted to stay.
“While I don’t agree with some of Sturgeon’s priorities, now that Scotland is being taken out of the EU against its will she is giving us an opportunity to fight back,” she said.
Asked about the differences with her mother, she said: “It does cause some tension in the family”.
Stuart Salter, 34, a town planner from Edinburgh, voted No to independence and wants to remain in the EU.
He said: “The Brexit vote hasn’t changed my mind about independence.
“Driving Scotland towards another independence referendum will only add to the present uncertainty”.
Campbell Fraser, 50, a drama workshop director from Clarkston, south of Glasgow, said he wanted Scotland to be an independent EU member state.
“We have to make sure we win because I don’t think we’ll get another chance in my lifetime,” he said.
Forced independence bid?
Political experts believe Sturgeon may be left with little choice but to call a referendum.
But Michael Keating, director of the Economic and Social Research Council’s Centre on Constitutional Change, told AFP: “There is no sign whatsoever that the UK government is going to take (Sturgeon’s) proposals seriously.
“They have to say they are, because if they reject it out of hand, they will be playing right into the Scottish government’s hands,” he said.
Nicola McEwen, professor of Territorial Politics at Edinburgh University, said Sturgeon had left no “compromise position” for Scotland.
“The worry for the Scottish government is if you hold a second referendum and lose it, you lose the leverage for Scotland within the United Kingdom.
“But if the situation is such that there doesn’t appear to be much leverage now anyway, the Scottish government may decide it has nothing to lose.”
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It all depends on how much they fear leaving Europe, versus leaving UK.
I think they will fear leaving the UK moreso though.
Independence would have forced Scotland to leave the EU anyway. Clan Sturgeon’s arguments have more holes than a Swiss cheese. It’s an absolute farce.
What’s with the obsession on clans Harry? It’s just an old Gaelic word for family and they were destroyed in Scotland by English treachery time and again with broken promises and divide and conquer techniques. It goes on to this day when you see the way Cameron threatened the Scottish electorate with fear tactics in the last independence referendum
64% of ‘Scottish exports go south of the boarder. 48.5 billion. 15 billion to the rest of the world. 11. Billion to the EU.. Given it was a Scottish King who Established the term Great Britain, this Stergeon is just chasing a name and a pension. If it all feks up she can still buy a holiday home..
That’s PRECISELY why I use the term. Clan Sturgeon – a family that represents its interests and its interests alone. Clan Sturgeon =/= Scotland.
It’s a lot more simple than that Harry. The Scots wouldn’t be allowing this to so strongly linger in the air just for bargaining with London on how Brexits going to go if they felt any solidarity with that Parliament. Just like NI they are half remembered and cared for. Scotland’s vote to stay wasn’t to do with staying part of the UK. It was to do with staying part of the EU.
@Scundered:
The Scots voted last time to remain in UK.
But things have changed now. I agree that Scots were uncertain what a leave UK vote would mean. There was no plan.
But now UK is leaving EU with no plan. Everything is up in the air so if Scotland votes out of UK now it keeps everything up in the air for one big negotiated agreement.
Maybe N.I. should vote for independance too. It would all mean a blank sheet of paper for the so called United Kigdom.
The harsh reality being addressed by Sturgeon is that England and Wales does not politically and economically care about Scotland or Scottish interests. England/Wales cares even less about Northern Ireland.
England/Wales will be dismissive of Scottish interests during the exit negotiations. Sturgeon needs to get to the table as a primary actor and not as an ancillary player.
Much as I would love to see Scotland voting to dissolve the United Kingdom and the hastening of a unitary State on this island I just don’t see it happening. Not unless the English do something monumentally stupid, again!
Like committing national suicide again…is that possible?
I wonder do Fine Gael or Fianna Fail have a plan for Irish unification or will they just be reactive and be like startled rabbits when it does happen. But to be fair I do notice Fine Gael and Fianna Fail and the Media talking more about unification in the past 2 years than they have been in the previous 30 years . It like they’re preparing us for this eventuality.
Fine Gael? Plan? Bahahahahaha!!!
@H0tt3rBank3r: The English would be rid of Northern Ireland by Tuesday morning if they could. The bigger obstacles to a united Ireland are (1) economic and (2) the continued insistence of the noisy crowd on this state on treating this as a territorial dispute with the Orangemen rather than trying to show what positive things unity has to offer 800,000 Prods.
Economic? How can you say a tiny island does better economically when it’s split into two jurisdictions, with different currencies, business rules and tariffs etc?!
I know. Stupid, right? Now ask yourself why such a dippy arrangement would work so wonderfully on another small island?
I think we need to leave Scotland decide for themselves !
Was great to see the open debate @ Mansion House #UnitedIreland conference. Some interesting insights from diverse speakers including that of former UUP director of communications Alex Kane and Cat Boyd of the Radical Independence Campaign in Scotland.
If people like Alex Kane can come and debate why can’t organisations like the GAA and political parties like Fianna Fáil who supposedly support the idea of a united ireland start engaging seriously as does appear inevitable.
Fianna Fail! Ha, they fear a United Ireland cos they know it’ll greatly reduce their power base. Don’t forget what happened the last time they ran a candidate in the north
For now Ms. Sturgeon is only using the threat of independence to try and get her foot in the door for Brexit talks. She won’t try and take Scotland out before exit, regardless of what happens though. She will wait until she has the best chance, which will be during the subsequent transition period.
Even if the UK ultimately makes a success of Brexit those first 12-24 months will still be very painful for a lot of people. That’s the time they can actually win this and I suspect she knows this but does not want to overplay her hand, which is one of the primary reasons she lost the first indy vote.
@John Considine: An independent Scotland could make its own trade links with the US, especially as Trumps mother hails from there.
Not if they want to be part of the EU though
Trump in his usual fashion managed to piss all over relations with Scotland thanks to that golf course fiasco.
And here’s me thinking only irish governments rerun referendums to get the results they want…
Do you not think that something very significant has happened since that would justify going back to the people?
*referenda
Reg, in spite of all the abundant post-truth revisionism from cybernats, the SNP knew DAMN WELL that leaving the UK would entail having to leave the EU. Even if the majority of their supporters manage to delude themselves into thinking otherwise. Clan Sturgeon’s sudden obsession with EU membership is laughably hollow.
@Harry Whitehead: I think the point is that the decision was made for Scotland by people elsewhere. The very ideology which brought English and Welsh people to leaving the EU is what drives the Independence campaign – i.e. independence from rule by Westminster. What the last year has shown is that logic and reason has little to do with popular votes, as people vote with their hearts and not their heads. In which case, why be bound by an English vote and not a Scottish one?
RH, if the population of Scotland cared as badly about being bound by an ‘English’ vote on the EU as St Nicola loves claiming, it looks very odd that Scotland had one of the lowest voter turnouts for the EU referendum. Particularly when you stack it against the far higher turnout for IndyRef only two years previously…
@Matt Donovan:
The people voted after more discussion and debate. Perhaps it was too democratic.
There needs to be clarity of how a vote for independence could affect Scotlands shipyards where much of the work which is undertaken for the British MOD.
Why would the MOD contract to an essential foreign dockyard when there are facilities at Portsmouth and Plymouth?
Sturgeon makes lots of noise but has no real power and, I’m told, a decreasing following. It is by no means certain that Scotland, as a whole, wish to become independent. Their economics are ludicrously weak. Sturgeon is acting like a dog chasing a car…absolutely no idea what she’ll do if she ever catches it, but enjoying making all the noise and having people watching.
5 of the world’s 7 biggest commercial shipping lines are EU companies and the rest is mostly China which can build its own ships, with cheap labor and steel that doesn’t need to be imported.
There is no market for Scottish ships without a trade deal in a post Brexit world. The odd MOD contract won’t keep them going.
@Joseph Siddall: I doubt that Portsmouth or Plymouth dockyards could build an aircraft carrier,but Harland & Wolfe have built them in the past.
@Chris Kirk: You could be right about Portsmouth and Plymouth and even if they could, or any were needed, the set-up costs would surely be crazy. H&W, on the other hand do have a history, but what would be needed to bring them back on-stream, so to speak?
‘The dilemma for Sturgeon is that many Scots say the EU referendum has not changed their minds on independence.’…These many Scots have nothing to fear from a referendum so!…as to the assertion that this will create more uncertainty….well that’s democracy and on the contrary with Brexit uncertainty hanging over all the UK this is no greater and would seem necessary to clear the air when many might also feel they were some how bullied into voting no to independence last time with threats of business and EU withdrawal from Scotland.
@winston smith:
The fall in the price of oil will have the biggest effect on the chances of a independence referendum.
The majority of people don’t vote on cultural or ideological grounds,
they vote by their pocket.
If a nation is considering the economic impact of independence then they don’t deserve it.
Hence Brexit..
@Austin Rock: Those in Westminster said the same about Irish independence a century ago. When Sturgeon has the mood of the Scottish people behind her she will know when it is right to strike out for freedom.
@Austin Rock:
That is an excellent and concise comment. Well said.
I can’t see her calling one very quickly as it would mean the end of her political career when she loses it. The appetite for an independent Scotland has waned rather than strengthened. She needs to bide her time and being impatient will be her undoing.
Agreed Patrick, it would be much easier for her to win an independence vote if she can create the impression that Scotland have been bullied into accepting Brexit, especially if Brexit works out badly and Scotland, along with the rest of the UK, starts to suffer the consequences. This is why should offer her an independence vote now. At the moment Sturgeon couldn’t win, but can you Imagine her being offered the vote and turning it down!! Theresa May has Sturgeon painted into a corner and knows it IMO.
Patrick I don’t agree the appetite for independence has waned, it is still at 45% . Considering when campaigned started at last Indy ref it was only 28%.
So 45% is not too bad a starting point.
I also believe she will not call a for a ref until she knows she can win it. Even without a Indy ref Scotland will be gaining more powers , almost Indy by the back door very gradually. With more powers the transition to independence may be not as daunting to some people in the future .
@Patrick J. O’Rourke:where on earth do you get your information from? You are watching too much BBC
@Finn Bowe: She needs to hold her fire until she can see the white of their eyes, otherwise she will likely miss the target.
Please stop feeding Clan Sturgeon’s planet-sized egos. This is merely the latest in a long line of empty threats to have a 2nd IndyRef – EVERY TIME it’s ended with Wee Jimmy changing the conditions for holding said referendum to ensure it would never happen. It’s getting rather boring now.
Why are you saying Clan Sturgeon the whole time? Nicola Sturgeon is one woman. Clan refers to an entire extended family under a particular Scottish honorific and genealogical system. Nicola Sturgeon is not a large number of people and she is not even a member of a clan. You should try learning about Scotland before sounding like an idiot!
And you should try reading posts before gobbing off. I always refer to Clan Sturgeon as a plural entity, not a singular. It’s a little nod towards the tribalistic mentality behind nationalists and their unquestioning loyalty to their leader. Try looking up ‘sarcasm’.
By the way, in the literal definition most clansmen weren’t actually blood relatives – they were mostly locals who adopted the clan chief’s name because they happened to live on his lands.
You’re referring to a single person as a plural entity. And I’m well aware of how the clan system works. Though not as visible as the Scottish clans, we have the exact same system in Ireland, particularly in the Irish-speaking areas. You have a different opinion to Sturgeon. We get it. And now you’re trying to use Clan in a derogatory way. Why are you trying to be so insulting? Are you trying to say that if you do not support the same view as yourself that somehow your value as a human is of less worth? That they are beneath you somehow? Kind of like a fascist train of thought, in my humble opinion.
Why would any country want to remain in EU.
@Jake Gundersonn:
Probably because they voted 63% to 37% to stat in it
@Jake Gundersonn: for a nice shiny motorway or two.
You need to do some reading. Not the Express or the Mail or the Sun.
@Jake Gundersonn:
Let them all vote for in EU or out of EU.
Then the remaining countries can continue with the principles of EU as a peaceful society. Those who want to do their own thing should just go. I would prefer to be part of a smaller union that is committed to the policy of unity of people within different nations.
@P.J. Nolan:
Only one country had a vote to stay in EU. That was UK.
What vote are you referring to ?
Why wait till 2018? Why not call the referendum now? No courage of her convictions? Or let’s wait and see what happens with Brexit negotiations. They might just come out well but if not she has been threatening and then can say I told u so!
It is somewhat ironic that Sturgeon is using an independence vote as a threat because she doesn’t agree with the British vote for independence from the EU?
Theresa May missed a trick in her speech the other day. If she had used the opportunity to say that, in light of the fact that they are leaving the single market they would offer Scotland another vote before the two year process of leaving the EU is complete. That would have left Sturgeon in a position where she had to “put up or shut up”. Scotland does 4 times as much trade with Britain as it does with the EU. An independent Scotland would pay 4 times the trade tariffs than a Scotland that I was part of a Britain that was outside the EU. This tells us that Sturgeons dream of independence is based more on an ideology than than economic common sense. Mind you, the same could be said for the Brexit decision too!
Rodan, there is nothing ironic by opinion of using britains decision to leave the eu as reason for independence. Scotland has Always been more pro eu than the rest of the uk. Being a member of the eu does not mean you loose your independence , an independent Scotland may
Not decide to be full member of the eu,but the choice will be theirs unlike now. been part of a uk union is not equal as has been proven
It is ironic. The Yestapo were warned again and again and AGAIN that independence would mean leaving the EU and having to renegotiate their membership. Again and again Salmond kept dismissing it as ‘scaremongering’ – a remarkably slapdash way of treating the possibilty of leaving a supposedly cherished organisation, wouldn’t you say?
If the EU insist on a hard border between north and south ,just put a hut there , see no evil hear no evil simple
Even if Scotland voted for independent which is unlikely….Then Spain will veto Scotland from joining the EU or being part of the Euro group….Catalonia would want the same as Scotland…
@John003 Hi John….If Scotland is independent then it wouldn’t be the same as Catalonia so your comment is incorrect re Spain
:
Perhaps the answer is don’t let non Scots vote as in brexit vote no EU nationalist. 500.000 English ,Welsh voted NO by 71%? and who mostly vote Tory. Why should they get a vote as to whether my country should be free from English domination.its like allowing the slave masters a vote on whether the slaves should be free.
The choice indi 2 is Little Englanders, perpetual Tory rule and everything that goes with that OR independence and European. I note someone saying Scotland exports £48 Billion to rest of UK.England Exports £52 billion to Scotland and is England biggest trading partner.
Hey my Comments Deleted,ya gotta love Democracy.
John Gibson, you made a comment telling me I obviously had no knowledge about Scotland’s economy. However, I can’t now see that comment. In response…you may be correct, haven’t lived there since early ’80s. So, enlighten me, please.Genuine request; no trips, traps or anything else.
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