Support from readers like you keeps The Journal open.
You are visiting us because we have something you value. Independent, unbiased news that tells the truth. Advertising revenue goes some way to support our mission, but this year it has not been enough.
If you've seen value in our reporting, please contribute what you can, so we can continue to produce accurate and meaningful journalism. For everyone who needs it.
Scotland makes the biggest decision in a generation on 18 September. PA Archive / Press Association Images
PA Archive / Press Association Images / Press Association Images
EIGHT DAYS FROM today Scotland will be asked to decide whether or not to end its 307-year union with England.
Whatever happens, the result will have a profound effect on the future of the United Kingdom and its ripples are likely to be felt throughout Europe, arguably nowhere stronger than here in Ireland.
But what exactly is it at stake? How likely is it that the world will get a new sovereign state and what will this mean? Take 10 minutes to get filled in.
What are Scots being asked and why?
Quite apart from what is usually the case in Irish referendums, the question being asked on 18 September is in plain language: Should Scotland be an independent country?
It’s being driven by the Scottish National Party (SNP), the largest party in the Scottish Parliament, which has always placed independence as its primary goal. The SNP achieved an overall majority in the 2011 elections and First Minister Alex Salmond set about putting a referendum timetable in place.
Alex Salmond pushing for an 'Aye'. PA Wire / Press Association Images
PA Wire / Press Association Images / Press Association Images
The holding of a referendum needed the approval of both the Scottish Parliament in Holyrood and the UK Parliament in Westminster. A period of negotiations ensued in which Salmond wanted the referendum in 2014 and British Prime Minister David Cameron wanted it later.
Salmond also wanted two or three questions on the ballot paper outlining alternative options for greater powers. Cameron was against this. Eventually a compromise was agreed whereby the referendum would be held in 2014 and would feature just one Yes/No question.
The SNP are campaigning for a Yes vote while the Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats are going for a No.
Scotland has voted before on strengthening its powers, in 1979 and 1997. In the former of those votes, a slim win for the Yes side was not enough to make devolution a reality because a minimum margin was required.
This is not the case here. A narrow victory for either side (and it looks like it will be narrow) will be decisive to set Scotland on the path to singledom or a continuation of its journey with England, Wales and Northern Ireland.
It proposed that Scotland would maintain a currency union with the Bank of England (BoE), keep the monarchy, have its own defence force and ultimately join the EU as a sovereign nation.
It also, of course, would take control of its own tax affairs, health service and social welfare which are still ultimately controlled by Westminster. London’s control of finances has always been a bugbear for many Scots, especially now. David Cameron remains their Prime Minister even though only one Conservative MP was elected north of the border.
But how Salmond’s plans are to become a reality have pretty much dominated the campaign.
The Better Together campaign, led by former UK Chancellor Alastair Darling, has repeatedly pointed to the BoE’s insistence that Scotland would not be able to share sterling and link its currency to the pound. They have accused Salmond of ‘having no plan b’ in the event of this arrangement being deemed impossible.
Salmond says that the BoE essentially simply can’t stop Scotland linking its currency to the pound, adding that they would not abandon Scotland because it would also mean absolving Scotland of a portion of the UK’s national debt.
The issue has even led to former European commissioner Olli Rehn saying that the ‘sterlingisation’ model proposed ‘would not be compatible with EU membership’.
It wasn’t the first time that Scotland’s future membership of the EU was questioned. Commission President Manuel Barrosso hinted that some of Europe’s leaders would seek to block Scotland from joining because it would encourage other restive regions, Catalonia for example, to push for their independence too.
In reality though, it is highly unlikely that the EU would be able to ignore the democratic will of the Scottish people if they had chosen independence and wanted to join the common market.
Another issue that has become more central in the final few weeks of debate is the future of the National Health Service (NHS) in Scotland. Labour says that the NHS is being broken up by the Tory Government in an attempt to privatise it and the SNP has seized on these concerns.
And what about the Queen? Well, she’s head of state in many sovereign countries like Australia and Canada so it’s no surprise that Scotland would keep her on.
It is a little more complicated though because of the monarchical line and how it runs through Scotland. It’s argued that a constitutional change would also be required in the UK as well as Scotland to smooth things over.
If Scotland does vote Yes, many fear what is already being compared to a potentially bitter divorce fro the UK. Issues like Scotland’s North Sea oil revenues, nuclear weapon sites and the national debt would all likely dominate the debate surrounding separation.
How likely are we to see a Yes vote?
The short answer: It’s getting more and more likely but it’s still not the expected result.
The British establishment was given a major wake-up call on Saturday night when the results of a YouGov/Sunday Times poll gave a lead to the Yes side for the first time.
The poll gave a 2% lead to the Yes side, less than three weeks since the same pollsters put the No side 22% ahead. Questions have been asked about the accuracy of the poll because the severity of the swing was much greater compared to other companies.
Notwithstanding that, all companies have shown strong momentum for Yes Scotland and the latest TNS poll published on Tuesday showed the difference at just 1% in favour of No. Excluding ‘don’t knows’ it was a dead heat.
Whoops!
We couldn't find this Tweet
How does this translate in real terms? Well, William Hill bookmakers puts a No vote at 2/5 (€10 wins €14) while a Yes vote is at 7/4 (€10 wins €27.50), so clearly the bookies are favouring a No.
To put that in perspective though, Manchester City are 11/4 (€10 wins €37.50) to win the current English Premier League. So, in essence, an independent Scotland is more likely than the current Premier League champions retaining their title.
But where will it be won and lost between now and Thursday week? As with any election or referendum, turnout will be key and this could be where the No side has a crucial advantage.
Nearly all residents of Scotland aged older than 16 are entitled to vote in next week’s referendum. Polling information from YouGov demonstrates that the Yes side is ahead in every age group except those aged over 60.
Significantly, while the Yes side only has a small edge in every decade up to 60-year-olds, those aged above that intend to vote massively (63%-29%) in favour of a No.
It may be a cliché, but its also close to a truism that elderly people vote in greater numbers and this demographic is the most staunchly opposed to independence.
Whoops!
We couldn't find this Tweet
Again though, it’s not all cut and dry. The TNS poll put the number of undecideds at 23%, suggesting that 600,000 Scots had yet to make up their minds.
Against expectations, polls have suggested that undecideds are more likely to swing to Yes by a ratio of 2:1. How this translates to people in the privacy of the ballot box is anybody’s guess though.
What would an independent Scotland mean for Ireland?
Firstly, it’s worth pointing out that Irish political parties have been observing a deathly silence on the issue. None of the four major parties are expressing a view, insisting that it’s a matter for the people of Scotland.
Fair enough you might say, but the United States hasn’t been shy about weighing in with President Obama even coming out strongly in favour of the union. Most observers say that this is both out of loyalty to the ‘special relationship’ with the UK and also because of the strategic importance of Scotland to NATO.
The closest Irish politicians have come to getting involved in the debate was when TDs held a video conference with their Scottish counterparts last February telling them how we’ve got on in the EU.
An independent Scotland would, in effect, mean the break up of what is currently the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. It is bound to have a destabilising effect on Northern Ireland which is already experiencing one of its most trying periods institutionally since the Good Friday Agreement.
Sinn Féin is committed to holding a border poll to test the waters of a united Ireland and a Scottish vote for independence would undoubtedly give this an extra impetus.
What’s more, the unionist community has fractured in post-agreement Northern Ireland and many unionists share a bond with their ancestral kin across the North Channel. An independent Scotland would surely cause them to question their place within the UK and it could lead to the greater dominance of London, hurting an already shaky Stormont Executive.
Old friends, new circumstances. PA Archive / Press Association Images
PA Archive / Press Association Images / Press Association Images
Southern Ireland wouldn’t be immune from the tremors of an independent Scotland though and Enda Kenny’s TBSCITWIWTDB mantra could be under threat.
A central plank of Salmond’s plan is to make Scotland an inviting place for inward investment and a cut in corporation tax to 17% is part of it. Although still higher than Ireland’s 12.5% rate, our low-tax English-speaking niche would have a challenger.
Scotland leaving the UK would also make a UK exit from the EU more likely. There’s an ‘in-out’ referendum on that planned for 2017 and Scottish independence would certainly be a boon to the eurosceptics in the Conservative Party and, of course, in Ukip.
For now, all that is in the realm of the hypothetical though. It’s now a decision for the people and it remains to be seen if they listen to the words of their unofficial national anthem, ‘Flower of Scotland’.
But we can still rise now, And be the nation again.
Readers like you are keeping these stories free for everyone...
Our Explainer articles bring context and explanations in plain language to help make sense of complex issues.
We're asking readers like you to support us so we can continue to provide helpful context to everyone, regardless of their ability to pay.
@sean o’dhubhghaill: an absolutely important event, one also worthy of his attendance, but I have to agree with the OP that if a choice had to be made between the two, in this instance he should have attended the Bloody Sunday Memorial
@sean o’dhubhghaill: I think the President was very badly advised on this.
He should have been in Derry today to commemorate the 50th Anniversary of Bloody Sunday. It was one the most momentous events of 20th century on the Island Ireland. It was was a catalyst for everything that followed for the next 25 years.
Of course he should also mark the Holocaust. But United Nations has designated 27th January (last Thursday) as international Holocaust Memorial Day.
So his advisors / Government should have ensured both Memorial events didn’t clash.This was poor planning by the President’s office, as the 50th anniversary of Bloody Sunday is a very significant event, the Office of the President is meant to represent all Irish Citizens.
This was an event the President should have attended.
@Sandra Anderson: perhaps for health reasons or covid risk etc he is not there. He is 80+ years of age. I’d doubt there is any intended snub on his part.
I watched wreath-laying ceremony live on Bbc news channel. Every political party in Ireland – except Unionists, not surprisingly – was represented. While the British Broadcasting Corporation provided live coverage of this event, the Irish national broadcaster offered Mass (fair enough), aussie rules women’s football or Junior Bake-off from England. Says it all.
@Caoimhín Ó Seanáin: Doug beattie I know his been in the news for all the wrong reasons of late but his the only unionist leader to show compassion for this on his Twitter page
Those creatures slithered out Palace Barracks outside Belfast 50 years ago, faces painted black and high-velocity hollow tip rounds in their guns. They drove 85 miles up the road, those that had not already murdered unarmed civilians in Belfast now had a chance to murder in Derry. They laughed in the faces of old men and children as they lay dying and shot more rounds into them. Then they slithered back to Palace Barracks buzzing and congratulating a job well done. British soldiers killing unarmed Irish civilians under order was British policy, it always was and could always be again. The only solution is unity.
This appalling event and the prolonged campaign for justice should be remembered with great sadness today. All of the innocent that lost their lives in this conflict must never be forgotten. Those that committed these acts should never delude themselves that they eclipsed the innocent in pursuit of a greater cause, it was simply murder.
Bad mistake by Michael D no turning up, how can the families get justice if the president rates it as a second class event. Is this the same mehole who laid a wreath for Crown forces awhile ago. What a two-faced individual
@John O Mahony: If the taoiseach didn’t turn up,you be giving out,not defending wreath laying for British forces but you no reason to have a go at the leader of our government for doing the right thing today,pop away at the president.
@Madra: On his tour of South America Higgins spoke of social injustice, pity his party agreed and implemented every austerity measure that was inteterduced on the ordinary people who put their faith in them to curb FG. So called Labour became more Blueshirt than the Blueshirts. Their position in the polls reflect their betrayal of those who voted for them.
The UN should investigate the curriculum in British and Protestant north of Ireland schools to prevent the sectarian mindset of hate being created in their people.
Time for Ireland to fully highlight the past atrocities of the british state & its army alongside their collusion, gerrymandering, institutionalised sectarianism and abuse of civil rights.
Not to mention the almost unending occupation atrocities perpetrated in Ireland prior to partition.
Their “british” colonial state evolved around being a genocidal, ethnic cleansing, sectarian occupying power, a parasitic organism.
A state that has never really faced or reflected on these past atrocities anywhere which is why their media & political structures today are a cesspit of propaganda that have turned inwards without hosts to feed off.
Thankfully Ireland today has considerable soft power helping us protect the rights of our citizens who live in the 6 counties and their rights under the GFA
What ever about the rights and wrongs of the British Army been based in the North.
The Paras should never had a role same can be said for the Royal Marine Comandos and the black watch.
Spoke to my children in their 20s (I know not children) at meal time today none of them knew anything about Bloody Sunday nor the Troubles. The murders of civil rights protestors, this was not a Republican march, by the British army was as bad as anything in South Africa, India or the southern states of America. It spawned the growth of the provos who themselves were as evil as the British and declared war on this country, every politician, judge Garda, Soldier, prison officer was considered a legitimate target. No wonder SF, who are still the political wing of the provos, are so popular with the young and uninformed. Our teachers and the civil service have downgraded history as a subject, one wonders why. BTW it is not the Taoiseach because he himself is a published historian.
@Kevin50: Teachers have not downgraded history as a subject. The belief that “education” is purely utilitarian job training is at the heart of many so called reforms in education.
@Kevin50: Sorry but this comment is nonsense. That your kids know nothing about bloody sunday is an indictment of you as a parent. We should make sure our children know and remember these atrocities else we risk history repeating. As for Micheal Martin being a published historian, please. He will forever be on the wrong side of history. Ever hear of collective cabinet responsibility? Ok now go back to 2008. QED.
@Kevin50: Firstly, history has been upgraded to a CORE subject. Secondly, the fact that your children don’t know about it is an indictment of both their specific teachers and you, sorry to say. As for the rest of your comment, we’ll leave that for now.
Try to stay on topic and stop referencing other actors in the conflict as some sort of latent excuse for what the British Army did that day and many other days. It was pure, unadulterated evil.
@Liam MacSuibhne: when the conflict kicked off in 1969 and section 31 of the Broadcasting Act was introduced in 1971 by the southern state. It was clear those in power were desperate to stop the general population from joining the dots and linking what was happening in the north to what had happened in the south before partition (1916-22). So Irish history taught in the schools more are less ended with the civil rights movement, and didnt catch up again until 1994 when the peace process kicked in.
so how could it be the responsibility of parents to teach their kids about Bloody Sunday and the conflict, when many of those young parents had been deprived of that history themselves.
How well I remember it .50 years ago today I very young then and.very angry left my workplace and.joined the vast crowd heading to the British embassy .There we watched on as it was.set ablaze with the garda standing by and merely observing it all .The feeling was that these paras.were a shower of gurriers like the black and tans of a different era .The British government behind it were devious and dishonest ,gurriers too with posh accents .The.way the Widgery enquiry blackened the names of the murder victims was yet another outrage
Pope Francis had 'peaceful' night in hospital, Vatican says
Updated
4 hrs ago
14.5k
rare disease day
Dublin schoolgirl with rare skin disease prepares for move to secondary school
10 mins ago
902
2
The Morning Lead
People living in illegal cabins - including family forced to dismantle home - tell their stories
16 hrs ago
40.1k
82
Your Cookies. Your Choice.
Cookies help provide our news service while also enabling the advertising needed to fund this work.
We categorise cookies as Necessary, Performance (used to analyse the site performance) and Targeting (used to target advertising which helps us keep this service free).
We and our 152 partners store and access personal data, like browsing data or unique identifiers, on your device. Selecting Accept All enables tracking technologies to support the purposes shown under we and our partners process data to provide. If trackers are disabled, some content and ads you see may not be as relevant to you. You can resurface this menu to change your choices or withdraw consent at any time by clicking the Cookie Preferences link on the bottom of the webpage .Your choices will have effect within our Website. For more details, refer to our Privacy Policy.
We and our vendors process data for the following purposes:
Use precise geolocation data. Actively scan device characteristics for identification. Store and/or access information on a device. Personalised advertising and content, advertising and content measurement, audience research and services development.
Cookies Preference Centre
We process your data to deliver content or advertisements and measure the delivery of such content or advertisements to extract insights about our website. We share this information with our partners on the basis of consent. You may exercise your right to consent, based on a specific purpose below or at a partner level in the link under each purpose. Some vendors may process your data based on their legitimate interests, which does not require your consent. You cannot object to tracking technologies placed to ensure security, prevent fraud, fix errors, or deliver and present advertising and content, and precise geolocation data and active scanning of device characteristics for identification may be used to support this purpose. This exception does not apply to targeted advertising. These choices will be signaled to our vendors participating in the Transparency and Consent Framework.
Manage Consent Preferences
Necessary Cookies
Always Active
These cookies are necessary for the website to function and cannot be switched off in our systems. They are usually only set in response to actions made by you which amount to a request for services, such as setting your privacy preferences, logging in or filling in forms. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not then work.
Targeting Cookies
These cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.
Functional Cookies
These cookies enable the website to provide enhanced functionality and personalisation. They may be set by us or by third party providers whose services we have added to our pages. If you do not allow these cookies then these services may not function properly.
Performance Cookies
These cookies allow us to count visits and traffic sources so we can measure and improve the performance of our site. They help us to know which pages are the most and least popular and see how visitors move around the site. All information these cookies collect is aggregated and therefore anonymous. If you do not allow these cookies we will not be able to monitor our performance.
Store and/or access information on a device 104 partners can use this purpose
Cookies, device or similar online identifiers (e.g. login-based identifiers, randomly assigned identifiers, network based identifiers) together with other information (e.g. browser type and information, language, screen size, supported technologies etc.) can be stored or read on your device to recognise it each time it connects to an app or to a website, for one or several of the purposes presented here.
Personalised advertising and content, advertising and content measurement, audience research and services development 136 partners can use this purpose
Use limited data to select advertising 106 partners can use this purpose
Advertising presented to you on this service can be based on limited data, such as the website or app you are using, your non-precise location, your device type or which content you are (or have been) interacting with (for example, to limit the number of times an ad is presented to you).
Create profiles for personalised advertising 78 partners can use this purpose
Information about your activity on this service (such as forms you submit, content you look at) can be stored and combined with other information about you (for example, information from your previous activity on this service and other websites or apps) or similar users. This is then used to build or improve a profile about you (that might include possible interests and personal aspects). Your profile can be used (also later) to present advertising that appears more relevant based on your possible interests by this and other entities.
Use profiles to select personalised advertising 77 partners can use this purpose
Advertising presented to you on this service can be based on your advertising profiles, which can reflect your activity on this service or other websites or apps (like the forms you submit, content you look at), possible interests and personal aspects.
Create profiles to personalise content 37 partners can use this purpose
Information about your activity on this service (for instance, forms you submit, non-advertising content you look at) can be stored and combined with other information about you (such as your previous activity on this service or other websites or apps) or similar users. This is then used to build or improve a profile about you (which might for example include possible interests and personal aspects). Your profile can be used (also later) to present content that appears more relevant based on your possible interests, such as by adapting the order in which content is shown to you, so that it is even easier for you to find content that matches your interests.
Use profiles to select personalised content 33 partners can use this purpose
Content presented to you on this service can be based on your content personalisation profiles, which can reflect your activity on this or other services (for instance, the forms you submit, content you look at), possible interests and personal aspects. This can for example be used to adapt the order in which content is shown to you, so that it is even easier for you to find (non-advertising) content that matches your interests.
Measure advertising performance 127 partners can use this purpose
Information regarding which advertising is presented to you and how you interact with it can be used to determine how well an advert has worked for you or other users and whether the goals of the advertising were reached. For instance, whether you saw an ad, whether you clicked on it, whether it led you to buy a product or visit a website, etc. This is very helpful to understand the relevance of advertising campaigns.
Measure content performance 60 partners can use this purpose
Information regarding which content is presented to you and how you interact with it can be used to determine whether the (non-advertising) content e.g. reached its intended audience and matched your interests. For instance, whether you read an article, watch a video, listen to a podcast or look at a product description, how long you spent on this service and the web pages you visit etc. This is very helpful to understand the relevance of (non-advertising) content that is shown to you.
Understand audiences through statistics or combinations of data from different sources 75 partners can use this purpose
Reports can be generated based on the combination of data sets (like user profiles, statistics, market research, analytics data) regarding your interactions and those of other users with advertising or (non-advertising) content to identify common characteristics (for instance, to determine which target audiences are more receptive to an ad campaign or to certain contents).
Develop and improve services 82 partners can use this purpose
Information about your activity on this service, such as your interaction with ads or content, can be very helpful to improve products and services and to build new products and services based on user interactions, the type of audience, etc. This specific purpose does not include the development or improvement of user profiles and identifiers.
Use limited data to select content 38 partners can use this purpose
Content presented to you on this service can be based on limited data, such as the website or app you are using, your non-precise location, your device type, or which content you are (or have been) interacting with (for example, to limit the number of times a video or an article is presented to you).
Use precise geolocation data 43 partners can use this special feature
With your acceptance, your precise location (within a radius of less than 500 metres) may be used in support of the purposes explained in this notice.
Actively scan device characteristics for identification 25 partners can use this special feature
With your acceptance, certain characteristics specific to your device might be requested and used to distinguish it from other devices (such as the installed fonts or plugins, the resolution of your screen) in support of the purposes explained in this notice.
Ensure security, prevent and detect fraud, and fix errors 86 partners can use this special purpose
Always Active
Your data can be used to monitor for and prevent unusual and possibly fraudulent activity (for example, regarding advertising, ad clicks by bots), and ensure systems and processes work properly and securely. It can also be used to correct any problems you, the publisher or the advertiser may encounter in the delivery of content and ads and in your interaction with them.
Deliver and present advertising and content 96 partners can use this special purpose
Always Active
Certain information (like an IP address or device capabilities) is used to ensure the technical compatibility of the content or advertising, and to facilitate the transmission of the content or ad to your device.
Match and combine data from other data sources 68 partners can use this feature
Always Active
Information about your activity on this service may be matched and combined with other information relating to you and originating from various sources (for instance your activity on a separate online service, your use of a loyalty card in-store, or your answers to a survey), in support of the purposes explained in this notice.
Link different devices 50 partners can use this feature
Always Active
In support of the purposes explained in this notice, your device might be considered as likely linked to other devices that belong to you or your household (for instance because you are logged in to the same service on both your phone and your computer, or because you may use the same Internet connection on both devices).
Identify devices based on information transmitted automatically 84 partners can use this feature
Always Active
Your device might be distinguished from other devices based on information it automatically sends when accessing the Internet (for instance, the IP address of your Internet connection or the type of browser you are using) in support of the purposes exposed in this notice.
Save and communicate privacy choices 64 partners can use this special purpose
Always Active
The choices you make regarding the purposes and entities listed in this notice are saved and made available to those entities in the form of digital signals (such as a string of characters). This is necessary in order to enable both this service and those entities to respect such choices.
have your say