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Explainer: Are we going to see an independent Scotland?

Could the United Kingdom really cease to be and what would this mean for Ireland?

Updated 10 September, 9am

Team Scotland sets off for Delhi Scotland makes the biggest decision in a generation on 18 September. PA Archive / Press Association Images PA Archive / Press Association Images / Press Association Images

EIGHT DAYS FROM today Scotland will be asked to decide whether or not to end its 307-year union with England.

Whatever happens, the result will have a profound effect on the future of the United Kingdom and its ripples are likely to be felt throughout Europe, arguably nowhere stronger than here in Ireland.

But what exactly is it at stake? How likely is it that the world will get a new sovereign state and what will this mean? Take 10 minutes to get filled in.

What are Scots being asked and why?

Quite apart from what is usually the case in Irish referendums, the question being asked on 18 September is in plain language: Should Scotland be an independent country?

It’s being driven by the Scottish National Party (SNP), the largest party in the Scottish Parliament, which has always placed independence as its primary goal. The SNP achieved an overall majority in the 2011 elections and First Minister Alex Salmond set about putting a referendum timetable in place.

Scottish independence referendum Alex Salmond pushing for an 'Aye'. PA Wire / Press Association Images PA Wire / Press Association Images / Press Association Images

The holding of a referendum needed the approval of both the Scottish Parliament in Holyrood and the UK Parliament in Westminster. A period of negotiations ensued in which Salmond wanted the referendum in 2014 and British Prime Minister David Cameron wanted it later.

Salmond also wanted two or three questions on the ballot paper outlining alternative options for greater powers. Cameron was against this. Eventually a compromise was agreed whereby the referendum would be held in 2014 and would feature just one Yes/No question.

The SNP are campaigning for a Yes vote while the Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats are going for a No.

Sky News / YouTube

What happens in the case of a Yes vote?

Scotland has voted before on strengthening its powers, in 1979 and 1997. In the former of those votes, a slim win for the Yes side was not enough to make devolution a reality because a minimum margin was required.

This is not the case here. A narrow victory for either side (and it looks like it will be narrow) will be decisive to set Scotland on the path to singledom or a continuation of its journey with England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Last November, Salmond outlined Yes Scotland’s ‘white paper’ on independence which tackled 650 questions on the practicalities of going it alone.

It proposed that Scotland would maintain a currency union with the Bank of England (BoE), keep the monarchy, have its own defence force and ultimately join the EU as a sovereign nation.

It also, of course, would take control of its own tax affairs, health service and social welfare which are still ultimately controlled by Westminster. London’s control of finances has always been a bugbear for many Scots, especially now. David Cameron remains their Prime Minister even though only one Conservative MP was elected north of the border.

But how Salmond’s plans are to become a reality have pretty much dominated the campaign.

The Better Together campaign, led by former UK Chancellor Alastair Darling, has repeatedly pointed to the BoE’s insistence that Scotland would not be able to share sterling and link its currency to the pound. They have accused Salmond of ‘having no plan b’ in the event of this arrangement being deemed impossible.

Alistair Davidson / YouTube

Salmond says that the BoE essentially simply can’t stop Scotland linking its currency to the pound, adding that they would not abandon Scotland because it would also mean absolving Scotland of a portion of the UK’s national debt.

The issue has even led to former European commissioner Olli Rehn saying that the ‘sterlingisation’ model proposed ‘would not be compatible with EU membership’.

It wasn’t the first time that Scotland’s future membership of the EU was questioned. Commission President Manuel Barrosso hinted that some of Europe’s leaders would seek to block Scotland from joining because it would encourage other restive regions, Catalonia for example, to push for their independence too.

In reality though, it is highly unlikely that the EU would be able to ignore the democratic will of the Scottish people if they had chosen independence and wanted to join the common market.

Another issue that has become more central in the final few weeks of debate is the future of the National Health Service (NHS) in Scotland. Labour says that the NHS is being broken up by the Tory Government in an attempt to privatise it and the SNP has seized on these concerns.

Channel 4 carried out ‘FactCheck’ on whether Scotland’s NHS is under threat from Westminster.

And what about the Queen? Well, she’s head of state in many sovereign countries like Australia and Canada so it’s no surprise that Scotland would keep her on.

It is a little more complicated though because of the monarchical line and how it runs through Scotland. It’s argued that a constitutional change would also be required in the UK as well as Scotland to smooth things over.

Aides of the Queen have been quoted as saying she is worried about the break up of the union but she has yet to make any public comment on the matter. That could change soon though.

If Scotland does vote Yes, many fear what is already being compared to a potentially bitter divorce fro the UK. Issues like Scotland’s North Sea oil revenues, nuclear weapon sites and the national debt would all likely dominate the debate surrounding separation.

How likely are we to see a Yes vote? 

The short answer: It’s getting more and more likely but it’s still not the expected result.

The British establishment was given a major wake-up call on Saturday night when the results of a YouGov/Sunday Times poll gave a lead to the Yes side for the first time.

The poll gave a 2% lead to the Yes side, less than three weeks since the same pollsters put the No side 22% ahead. Questions have been asked about the accuracy of the poll because the severity of the swing was much greater compared to other companies.

Notwithstanding that, all companies have shown strong momentum for Yes Scotland and the latest TNS poll published on Tuesday showed the difference at  just 1% in favour of No. Excluding ‘don’t knows’ it was a dead heat.

How does this translate in real terms? Well, William Hill bookmakers puts a No vote at 2/5 (€10 wins €14) while a Yes vote is at 7/4 (€10 wins €27.50), so clearly the bookies are favouring a No.

To put that in perspective though, Manchester City are 11/4 (€10 wins €37.50) to win the current English Premier League. So, in essence, an independent Scotland is more likely than the current Premier League champions retaining their title.

But where will it be won and lost between now and Thursday week? As with any election or referendum, turnout will be key and this could be where the No side has a crucial advantage.

Nearly all residents of Scotland aged older than 16 are entitled to vote in next week’s referendum. Polling information from YouGov demonstrates that the Yes side is ahead in every age group except those aged over 60.

Significantly, while the Yes side only has a small edge in every decade up to 60-year-olds, those aged above that intend to vote massively (63%-29%) in favour of a No.

It may be a cliché, but its also close to a truism that elderly people vote in greater numbers and this demographic is the most staunchly opposed to independence.

Again though, it’s not all cut and dry. The TNS poll put the number of undecideds at 23%, suggesting that 600,000 Scots had yet to make up their minds.

Against expectations, polls have suggested that undecideds are more likely to swing to Yes by a ratio of 2:1. How this translates to people in the privacy of the ballot box is anybody’s guess though.

Undecided women are also understood to be breaking to the Yes side by an even greater degree, the infamous #PatronisingBTlady ad not helping.

BetterTogetherUK / YouTube

What would an independent Scotland mean for Ireland?

Firstly, it’s worth pointing out that Irish political parties have been observing a deathly silence on the issue. None of the four major parties are expressing a view, insisting that it’s a matter for the people of Scotland.

Fair enough you might say, but the United States hasn’t been shy about weighing in with President Obama even coming out strongly in favour of the union. Most observers say that this is both out of loyalty to the ‘special relationship’ with the UK and also because of the strategic importance of Scotland to NATO.

The closest Irish politicians have come to getting involved in the debate was when TDs held a video conference with their Scottish counterparts last February telling them how we’ve got on in the EU.

An independent Scotland would, in effect, mean the break up of what is currently the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. It is bound to have a destabilising effect on Northern Ireland which is already experiencing one of its most trying periods institutionally since the Good Friday Agreement.

Sinn Féin is committed to holding a border poll to test the waters of a united Ireland and a Scottish vote for independence would undoubtedly give this an extra impetus.

What’s more, the unionist community has fractured in post-agreement Northern Ireland and many unionists share a bond with their ancestral kin across the North Channel. An independent Scotland would surely cause them to question their place within the UK and it could lead to the greater dominance of London, hurting an already shaky Stormont Executive.

Rugby Union - RBS 6 Nations Championship 2011 - Scotland v Ireland - Murrayfield Old friends, new circumstances. PA Archive / Press Association Images PA Archive / Press Association Images / Press Association Images

Southern Ireland wouldn’t be immune from the tremors of an independent Scotland though and Enda Kenny’s TBSCITWIWTDB mantra could be under threat.

A central plank of Salmond’s plan is to make Scotland an inviting place for inward investment and a cut in corporation tax to 17% is part of it. Although still higher than Ireland’s 12.5% rate, our low-tax English-speaking niche would have a challenger.

Scotland leaving the UK would also make a UK exit from the EU more likely. There’s an ‘in-out’ referendum on that planned for 2017 and Scottish independence would certainly be a boon to the eurosceptics in the Conservative Party and, of course, in Ukip.

One more thing. If the Scots do vote Yes, the SNP have said that they want their ‘Independence Day’ to be on 24 March 2016, a historically significant day for Scotland.

That day is also Easter Thursday, right in the middle of when Ireland will be holding its Easter Rising commemorations.

For now, all that is in the realm of the hypothetical though. It’s now a decision for the people and it remains to be seen if they listen to the words of their unofficial national anthem, ‘Flower of Scotland’.

 But we can still rise now, And be the nation again.
First published on 9 September 

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140 Comments
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    Mute Sandra Anderson
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    Jan 30th 2022, 9:52 AM

    The President should be there in person, not a virtual speech,

    Condolences to all the families.

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    Mute sean o'dhubhghaill
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    Jan 30th 2022, 10:45 AM

    @Sandra Anderson: He is at the National Holocaust Memorial. If there is any reason not to be at the Bloody Sunday commemoration, it is that.

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    Mute Jo H
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    Jan 30th 2022, 11:21 AM

    @sean o’dhubhghaill: an absolutely important event, one also worthy of his attendance, but I have to agree with the OP that if a choice had to be made between the two, in this instance he should have attended the Bloody Sunday Memorial

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    Mute John Mc Auley
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    Jan 30th 2022, 12:29 PM

    @sean o’dhubhghaill: No its Not.

    104
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    Mute XvSv
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    Jan 30th 2022, 12:57 PM

    @sean o’dhubhghaill: I think the President was very badly advised on this.

    He should have been in Derry today to commemorate the 50th Anniversary of Bloody Sunday. It was one the most momentous events of 20th century on the Island Ireland. It was was a catalyst for everything that followed for the next 25 years.

    Of course he should also mark the Holocaust. But United Nations has designated 27th January (last Thursday) as international Holocaust Memorial Day.

    So his advisors / Government should have ensured both Memorial events didn’t clash.This was poor planning by the President’s office, as the 50th anniversary of Bloody Sunday is a very significant event, the Office of the President is meant to represent all Irish Citizens.

    This was an event the President should have attended.

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    Mute Ger Murphy
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    Jan 30th 2022, 1:13 PM

    @Sandra Anderson: perhaps for health reasons or covid risk etc he is not there. He is 80+ years of age. I’d doubt there is any intended snub on his part.

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    Mute Jo H
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    Jan 30th 2022, 1:30 PM

    @Ger Murphy: he is attending another event, albeit a very important one also, nothing to do with covid

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    Mute OneClubSince1888
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    Jan 30th 2022, 4:04 PM

    @sean o’dhubhghaill:
    Shocking decision by our president.

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    Mute Aidan Haughey
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    Jan 30th 2022, 8:38 PM

    The reason would be that he should be at home mourning his own. 50 is an important number. Wrong decision

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    Mute Gerry Gleeson
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    Jan 30th 2022, 10:27 AM

    They were murdered by the British Army.

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    Mute The Grand Nagus
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    Jan 30th 2022, 7:17 PM

    @Gerry Gleeson:
    Are you serious?

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    Mute Doreen Murphy
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    Jan 30th 2022, 9:03 PM

    @The Grand Nagus: no one can deny that. Total murder and no one held to account.

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    Mute The Grand Nagus
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    Jan 30th 2022, 10:33 PM

    @Doreen Murphy:
    Went over your head Doreen sorry

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    Mute Caoimhín Ó Seanáin
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    Jan 30th 2022, 2:07 PM

    I watched wreath-laying ceremony live on Bbc news channel. Every political party in Ireland – except Unionists, not surprisingly – was represented. While the British Broadcasting Corporation provided live coverage of this event, the Irish national broadcaster offered Mass (fair enough), aussie rules women’s football or Junior Bake-off from England. Says it all.

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    Mute doyle
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    Jan 30th 2022, 6:17 PM

    @Caoimhín Ó Seanáin: Doug beattie I know his been in the news for all the wrong reasons of late but his the only unionist leader to show compassion for this on his Twitter page

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    Mute Sue OB
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    Jan 30th 2022, 10:27 PM

    @Caoimhín Ó Seanáin: i would say 90% of the british public have no idea about bl@@dy S@@day and the establishment are quite happy to keep it that way

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    Mute Chief Buck Cat
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    Jan 30th 2022, 1:33 PM

    Those creatures slithered out Palace Barracks outside Belfast 50 years ago, faces painted black and high-velocity hollow tip rounds in their guns. They drove 85 miles up the road, those that had not already murdered unarmed civilians in Belfast now had a chance to murder in Derry. They laughed in the faces of old men and children as they lay dying and shot more rounds into them. Then they slithered back to Palace Barracks buzzing and congratulating a job well done. British soldiers killing unarmed Irish civilians under order was British policy, it always was and could always be again. The only solution is unity.

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    Mute camio55
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    Jan 30th 2022, 11:42 AM

    This appalling event and the prolonged campaign for justice should be remembered with great sadness today. All of the innocent that lost their lives in this conflict must never be forgotten. Those that committed these acts should never delude themselves that they eclipsed the innocent in pursuit of a greater cause, it was simply murder.

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    Mute Declan Edward
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    Jan 30th 2022, 3:03 PM

    Absolutely shocked that Michael Higgins didn’t go to this.

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    Mute John O Mahony
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    Jan 30th 2022, 2:32 PM

    Bad mistake by Michael D no turning up, how can the families get justice if the president rates it as a second class event. Is this the same mehole who laid a wreath for Crown forces awhile ago. What a two-faced individual

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    Mute Daniel Roche
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    Jan 30th 2022, 2:46 PM

    @John O Mahony: If the taoiseach didn’t turn up,you be giving out,not defending wreath laying for British forces but you no reason to have a go at the leader of our government for doing the right thing today,pop away at the president.

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    Mute Madra
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    Jan 30th 2022, 9:36 AM

    Mick D is a great man

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    Mute Richard Right
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    Jan 30th 2022, 9:48 AM

    @Madra: A true socialist, and man of the common people.

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    Mute Frank Gooding
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    Jan 30th 2022, 10:28 AM

    @Richard Right: wealthy socialist ok

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    Mute Cian
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    Jan 30th 2022, 10:33 AM

    @Richard Right: surely satire?

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    Mute sean o'dhubhghaill
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    Jan 30th 2022, 10:49 AM

    @Frank Gooding: What is the maximum wage a socialist can earn?

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    Mute iohanx
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    Jan 30th 2022, 10:59 AM

    @sean o’dhubhghaill:

    Not more than the next person.

    43
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    Mute Bri Lyons
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    Jan 30th 2022, 11:01 AM

    @sean o’dhubhghaill: don’t forget the tea parties

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    Mute Frank Gooding
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    Jan 30th 2022, 11:43 AM

    @sean o’dhubhghaill: some socialists are more equal than others i guess.

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    Mute Donal Desmond
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    Jan 30th 2022, 1:22 PM

    @Madra: On his tour of South America Higgins spoke of social injustice, pity his party agreed and implemented every austerity measure that was inteterduced on the ordinary people who put their faith in them to curb FG. So called Labour became more Blueshirt than the Blueshirts. Their position in the polls reflect their betrayal of those who voted for them.

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    Mute Tom Molloy
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    Jan 30th 2022, 1:22 PM

    The UN should investigate the curriculum in British and Protestant north of Ireland schools to prevent the sectarian mindset of hate being created in their people.

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    Mute Mentis Green
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    Jan 30th 2022, 3:49 PM

    Time for Ireland to fully highlight the past atrocities of the british state & its army alongside their collusion, gerrymandering, institutionalised sectarianism and abuse of civil rights.
    Not to mention the almost unending occupation atrocities perpetrated in Ireland prior to partition.

    Their “british” colonial state evolved around being a genocidal, ethnic cleansing, sectarian occupying power, a parasitic organism.
    A state that has never really faced or reflected on these past atrocities anywhere which is why their media & political structures today are a cesspit of propaganda that have turned inwards without hosts to feed off.

    Thankfully Ireland today has considerable soft power helping us protect the rights of our citizens who live in the 6 counties and their rights under the GFA

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    Mute Finbar Delaney
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    Jan 30th 2022, 3:31 PM

    Any FG representatives attend?

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    Mute John Meade
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    Jan 31st 2022, 7:04 AM

    @Finbar Delaney: the article doesn’t list every politician that was there but it does have a tweet from Simon Coveney saying he is there

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    Mute Paul Byrne
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    Jan 30th 2022, 3:51 PM

    He laid a wealth for the soldiers that done it a thick

    49
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    Mute The Grand Nagus
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    Jan 30th 2022, 7:23 PM

    What ever about the rights and wrongs of the British Army been based in the North.
    The Paras should never had a role same can be said for the Royal Marine Comandos and the black watch.

    41
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    Mute Kevin50
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    Jan 30th 2022, 7:07 PM

    Spoke to my children in their 20s (I know not children) at meal time today none of them knew anything about Bloody Sunday nor the Troubles. The murders of civil rights protestors, this was not a Republican march, by the British army was as bad as anything in South Africa, India or the southern states of America. It spawned the growth of the provos who themselves were as evil as the British and declared war on this country, every politician, judge Garda, Soldier, prison officer was considered a legitimate target. No wonder SF, who are still the political wing of the provos, are so popular with the young and uninformed. Our teachers and the civil service have downgraded history as a subject, one wonders why. BTW it is not the Taoiseach because he himself is a published historian.

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    Mute Dorothy
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    Jan 30th 2022, 7:40 PM

    @Kevin50: Teachers have not downgraded history as a subject. The belief that “education” is purely utilitarian job training is at the heart of many so called reforms in education.

    20
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    Mute Sandra Duffy
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    Jan 30th 2022, 9:08 PM

    @Kevin50: Sinn Fein supported murders every bit as heinous.

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    Mute Sonic
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    Jan 30th 2022, 9:09 PM

    @Kevin50: Sorry but this comment is nonsense. That your kids know nothing about bloody sunday is an indictment of you as a parent. We should make sure our children know and remember these atrocities else we risk history repeating. As for Micheal Martin being a published historian, please. He will forever be on the wrong side of history. Ever hear of collective cabinet responsibility? Ok now go back to 2008. QED.

    42
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    Mute Liam MacSuibhne
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    Jan 30th 2022, 9:22 PM

    @Kevin50: Firstly, history has been upgraded to a CORE subject. Secondly, the fact that your children don’t know about it is an indictment of both their specific teachers and you, sorry to say. As for the rest of your comment, we’ll leave that for now.
    Try to stay on topic and stop referencing other actors in the conflict as some sort of latent excuse for what the British Army did that day and many other days. It was pure, unadulterated evil.

    39
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    Mute Angela McCarthy
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    Jan 30th 2022, 11:04 PM

    @Liam MacSuibhne: when the conflict kicked off in 1969 and section 31 of the Broadcasting Act was introduced in 1971 by the southern state. It was clear those in power were desperate to stop the general population from joining the dots and linking what was happening in the north to what had happened in the south before partition (1916-22). So Irish history taught in the schools more are less ended with the civil rights movement, and didnt catch up again until 1994 when the peace process kicked in.

    so how could it be the responsibility of parents to teach their kids about Bloody Sunday and the conflict, when many of those young parents had been deprived of that history themselves.

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    Mute Anna Carr
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    Jan 30th 2022, 5:54 PM

    I thought it was a very respectful, solemn service. Everyone there behaved impeccably.

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    Mute Joan Grennan
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    Jan 31st 2022, 11:31 AM

    How well I remember it .50 years ago today I very young then and.very angry left my workplace and.joined the vast crowd heading to the British embassy .There we watched on as it was.set ablaze with the garda standing by and merely observing it all .The feeling was that these paras.were a shower of gurriers like the black and tans of a different era .The British government behind it were devious and dishonest ,gurriers too with posh accents .The.way the Widgery enquiry blackened the names of the murder victims was yet another outrage

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