Support from readers like you keeps The Journal open.
You are visiting us because we have something you value. Independent, unbiased news that tells the truth. Advertising revenue goes some way to support our mission, but this year it has not been enough.
If you've seen value in our reporting, please contribute what you can, so we can continue to produce accurate and meaningful journalism. For everyone who needs it.
A NEW OPINION poll published this morning has put Scotland’s pro-independence camp ahead for the first time in the campaign — just 11 days before a referendum on splitting from Britain.
The YouGov/Sunday Times poll gave the “Yes” camp 51 percent support compared to the “No” camp’s 49 percent, excluding undecided voters.
Although the two-point lead is within the margin of error, the findings dramatically up the stakes ahead of the vote on September 18, handing momentum to First Minister Alex Salmond’s Scottish National Party (SNP).
The Sunday Times also reported that Queen Elizabeth II feels “a great deal of concern” over the independence vote and has asked for daily updates.
Britain’s main parties, including Prime Minister David Cameron’s Conservatives, are now expected to reveal a plan for handing more powers to Scots in a bid to keep the 300-year-old union together.
Any vote for Scotland to leave Britain would raise questions about Britain’s standing in the international community and could put pressure on Cameron to stand down.
‘Down to the wire’
The Better Together campaign, which backs Scotland staying in Britain, has been ahead in opinion polls for months but its lead has narrowed in recent days.
The “No” camp had a 22-point lead in YouGov polling just one month ago. Another YouGov survey for The Times newspaper on Tuesday showed a marked narrowing of the gap to six points.
Alistair Darling, leader of the Better Together campaign, said the latest poll showed the referendum “will go down to the wire”.
Advertisement
“We relish this battle,” he added.
It is not the Battle of Britain — it is the battle for Scotland, for Scotland’s children and grandchildren and the generations to come. This is a battle we will win.
A second survey commissioned by the “Yes” camp and released today puts the “No” camp four points ahead. The Panelbase poll gives “No” 52 percent and “Yes” 48 percent, excluding undecideds.
The “Yes” campaign’s chief executive, Blair Jenkins, urged his side to remain focused.
He added of the YouGov survey: “While this poll puts us marginally ahead, other polls show that we still have more progress to make if we are to win.
“We will be working flat out between now and 18 September to ensure that we achieve a Yes vote.”
Queen’s ‘concern’
Salmond wants Queen Elizabeth to remain head of state of an independent Scotland but the Sunday Times quoted an aide as saying this was “not a given”.
“The Queen is a unionist,” it quoted the unnamed source as saying.
There is now a great deal of concern.
The British monarch has a home at Balmoral in the Scottish Highlands and on Saturday made her traditional visit to the Highland Games at nearby Braemar to watch pursuits like caber tossing.
Cameron is due to visit Balmoral today, in a visit arranged before the poll was published.
He would face pressure from some lawmakers to stand down if there was a “Yes” vote, the Sunday Times reported, although he insisted again on Thursday that he would not quit if that happened.
Ha ha. I wonder if they will be invited back to the union when independence goes pair shaped.
This is like county Offaly deciding to break away from Ireland. They might be loyal to the county, but they benefit hugely from the Dublin tax payer :-D
Nah, i think it would be more akin to the Island of Ireland looking to break the Union with Britain. The Scots suffered terribly at the hands of the English for 100′s of years. I dont think the rest of Ireland treated Offaly that badly, do you ?
All nations suffered terribly at the hands of others over the course of history; whether it was invaders from overseas, their own kings or raiders from the next village.
Through Ireland’s highly exaggerated ’800 Years Of Oppression’ what was going on elsewhere in Europe, let alone within England itself?
@Cal Mooney Tell me what today’s English population did to today’s Scottish population or explain how suffering that occurred hundreds of years ago is relevant to the question of whether or not Scotland today benefits from its union with England, Wales and NI today. Then perhaps your comment will make some kind of sense.
Should independence be an end goal in and of itself? Is there no room for pragmatism in relation to a decision that will impact the lives of millions of people in and outside of Scotland?
It’s very easy to take an idealistic position from the side-lines isn’t it?
Jake, Scotland is a net contributor to the UK treasury. They put in more money than they get out and yet they are massively under-represented in the Houses of Parliament. If you include oil, an independent Scotland would have a larger GDP per capita than the rest of the UK. Without oil, it’s almost identical anyway. They would also have a very low debt burden per capita once adjusted if they got independence.
The numbers would obviously be rattled once they got independence and they would suffer a bit of a slump for a few years. But your view of Scotland as a destitute economic wasteland being propped up by the generous taxpayers of South East England just isn’t accurate.
They are more than capable of looking after themselves.
Facts, not sideline sentiment. In the long run it makes democratic and economic sense for Scotland to become independent. Even outside of the whole pro independence romance story.
Please, read these and then come back to me with a more educated opinion. The better together campaign is s***ing itself for a reason, they are now losing and the UK will suffer far more than Scotland.
Don’t take my word for it. Have a read. Educate yourself a bit before assuming that the argument for independence is purely one from the heart. There are very pragmatic reasons to go it alone.
The next week will involve heaps of scaremongering and empty promises by the no side. Forget it and seize the moment Scotland. This is your only chance to ever become what you deserve to be – a truly independent nation, where you can elect your own government and not be ruled by a political party which only returned one member of parliament in your entire country.
The no side is accused of scaremongering for telling the truth and it’s pretty disgraceful.
An independent Scotland can’t keep the pound, it can’t join the EU without accepting the Euro, it can’t remain in NATO and get rid of the UK nuclear deterrent.
It will have to raise taxes and cut benefits because it’s older and sicker than the UK as a whole. The oil production projections Salmond is relying on are miles above the consensus industry estimates or the office for budget responsibilities.
These are facts and not scaremongering. Scotland will be fine but it will be worse off when independent.
Alistair Darling already conceded in the last debate against Alex Salmond that Scotland can indeed keep the pound. Although to be completely honest, the issue of currency is a huge red herring. The idea of being able to elect a Government that actually represents the people of Scotland trumps trivial issues like currency in the long-term. There are an array of currency options available to Scotland upon independence.
“An independent Scotland can’t keep the pound, it can’t join the EU without accepting the Euro”
Wrong again. The fiscal commission categorically stated that Scotland cannot be forced to use the Euro as a requirement for EU accession. It is voluntary. (http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0041/00414291.pdf – Scroll down to paragraph 7.37)
You’re just rehashing the same old trivial nonsense from the no side.
We are bankrupt because we elected politician parties who believed in deregulating financial institutions, trusting that these financial institutions would create vast wealth, and all would be well.
We were not alone in this stupidity, but there were other nations who elected governments who insisted upon retaining control of these greedy institutions aware that they were only seeking short term profit, and who cared little for the future consequences of their actions upon wider society.
These nations did not suffer as we have, and hopefully Scottish voters will have learned from their own experiences, and not elect leaders who will seek to return to failed economic policies.
I hope we have as well, but the opinion polls suggest otherwise.
Seán is right. Scotland will never be forced to join the euro. Denmark and the UK have opt-outs, and are the only Member States to have them. Yet despite not having an opt-out, Sweden still has the krona.
Certain criteria have to be fulfilled by a state, and as soon as all of those criteria are fulfilled, that state is obliged to join the euro. Much of the criteria relates to inflation and balancing the books, but the key factor is joining the European Exchange Rate Mechanism to stabilise the exchange rates. Once you’re in the mechanism and meet the other criteria, that’s it, time for the changeover. But the loophole lies in the fact that joining the ERM is completely voluntary. Sweden has not joined it, and as a result, 12 years after the launch of the euro, still works without consequence and completely legally using its own currency.
Poland is another example. It has been meeting all of the criteria for the last three/four years, but has not been obliged to join the euro as they did not join ERM yet, as they want to keep the zloty until the euro stabilises.
Saying that Scotland will have to join the euro and be financially governed from Brussels and Frankfurt is yet more scaremongering by the No side. Fear is all they have to get people to say No. Go for it, Scotland!!
Scotland cant use the currency of the UK. It can use the pound without the permission of the bank of England but then they have no lender of last resort and no control or influence on their own monetary policy.
The conditions for joining the EU is too join the Euro when they meet the conditions. The UK and Denmark have exemptions and the EU has been very clear that nobody else is getting an exemption.
If Scotland wants to join the EU after leaving the UK then they have to commit to joining the Euro. They don’t have to actually join the Euro, they can intentionally miss the requirements for as long as they want.
But an independent Scotland cannot join the EU without legally committing to joining the Euro.
That assuming that Spain would allow them in which is somewhat doubtful. They don’t care what happens to Scotland it’s not their problem. They just dont want to see the split up of Spain into a number of countries.
David is correct. All this Separatist flag waving and chest beating will soon subside when it’s realised that Scotland will have no central bank, no control over a foreign (GBP) currency and will have to wait at least 5 years for admission to the EU, whereupon they will have to adopt the Euro.
Scotland already has its own church, laws, legal system and everything else. The SNP have been in power for years and nothing has changed for the better. To suggest that post 18th September everything will be suddenly better is Socialist faery stories. There are many questions still unanswered, currency being only one.
The Separatists logic seems to be an independent Scotland, may be a mess, but a homegrown mess they can be proud of. At least if they don’t blame the English and admit responsibility for any hiccups that would be something.
It’s already been outlined that this is not the case. No country will ever have to join the euro. We have 28 countries in the EU, 18 (soon to be 19) of whom have adopted the euro, yet only two have opt-outs.
Explain how, despite the compulsion to join the eurozone that you speak of, the six countries with no opt-out are still all able to use their own currency in place of the euro. Alternatively, kindly stop with the false information.
It hasn’t changed for the better because Scottish taxes aren’t exclusively used in Scotland. They’re pooled into the UK coffers and they get less back than they put in because it has to pay for Westminster’s follies.
Because the countries who haven’t joined the Euro yet are still legally obliged to join the Euro when they meet the conditions. Eastern European countries still have issues with inflation and monetary policy but eventually when they meet the convergence criteria they have to adopt the Euro.
Nobody is saying Scotland ever has to adopt the Euro, they can legally sign a contract where they say they will and then intentionally miss the criteria.
The issue is they can’t sign a contract saying they are keeping the pound with the UK (if the UK allows it somehow) and then also sign a contract saying they will join the Euro.
Scotland can issue its own currency at parity to the pound like Ireland did and then join the EU saying they will join the Euro but never do so. That’s legal and workable. Though there are risks for the Scottish financial sector and of devaluation like Ireland.
But it’s a fiction that they could ever keep the pound and join the EU.
From the EU’s own website:
“Ten new Member States joined the European Union on 1 May 2004. Two more, Bulgaria and Romania, acceded on 1 January 2007. However, they did not introduce the single currency straight away: the new Member States must first show that they are ready to adopt the euro and meet the “convergence criteria”. As soon as these conditions are met, the new Member States will be required to introduce the euro.”
Membership criteria – Who can join?
The ability to take on and implement effectively the obligations of membership, including adherence to the aims of political, economic and monetary union.
In regards to taxation Scotland ‘got’ £16.5bn more in UK public spending in 2009-10 than it contributed to total UK revenues – or a ‘subsidy’ of around £3,150 per head.
David, stop scaremongering of course Scotland can have the pound because they own it the same as England. When the UK removes it’s arsenal of nuclear weapons Scotland can decide for itself if it wants to remain with Nato. The Uk is a member of the Treaty organisation, it certainly doesn’t decide who is in or out. The same goes for the Eu where Scotland is presently represented in Europe as part of the UK they will remain in even if the rest of the UK decides to leave.
Chris, wrong. GBP is the currency of the UK. Scotland could continue to use it, (or USD Yen or Roubles) but they certainly won’t own it. They would have no control over what would be a foreign currency regulated by the Bank of England. Scotland as a new country would have to seek admission to the EU – already that’s stated to take about 5 years and not a certainty.
You (and the Yes campaign) need to distinguish what you’d like to happen given best case scenario with what the actualities are.
It may be a case of after legal negotiations Scotland is left with egg on its face and the rUK saying “I told you so”. But at least they’ll be “free” to ponder their situation.
The Queen doesn’t need to worry because the Scots will scrap the bedroom tax. She might have to declare her passport though and register as an immigrant.
Watch the no campaign go all out on the attack against the yes campaign now, probably including a concerted effort by the main media. I was hoping that the yes campaign would stay behind in the polls leading up to vote, but I think these polls could backfire on them now, and could embolden the no side to become more aggressive in their attacks.
A yes vote would make my year, there would be some pretty confused unionists up north if it happened. Poor Willie Frazier wouldn’t know what to do!
Wales is no more a country in the UK than Cork in Ireland, it is a part of England in reality and its residents bar some small pockets in the North all see themselves as basically English.
Rochelle, you don’t know many welsh people so you? They have managed to keep their native tongue alice and have over 90% fluency rates, they are just as proud of their independent nation as te Scots
It would be interesting to see Scotland as an independent country and I an sure they would survive, would an independent Scotland prosper is a more difficult question, probably one that is impossible to answer. My prediction (for what it’s worth) is that that uncertainty will result in sufficient voters having second thoughts, then choosing to remain with the known rather than vote for the unknown.
She loved a bit of Scottish Pole throwing in her day … doubt she would get much out of it now, me thinks she wouldn’t even be able to get the pole upright.
Gravel not every country that has gained their independence has gone bankrupt you know. We are one country out of over 200 in the world, and we nearly went bankrupt 90 years after independence because of the crazy unregulated backing system and a fake property boom that FF promoted. What has Irelands case in the middle of the global financial crisis got to do with Scotland’s independence, you do realise that Spain and Portugal, two of the great colonising nations, also nearly went bankrupt, especially Portugal. Ridiculous statement from you? You are nothing but a scaremongering pessimist. Why anyone would not want to see a nation get their independence is beyond me.
While I don’t like almost any of gravels posts I have to say I agree with most of what is has written , we are a soft touch as a country , every single leader of this country since the state murdered its way to power in the civil war has striped the people of the natural resources ,that includes the people themselves through immigration , and sold them off to finance the corrupt “elite interests “.
And we let them do it to us everytime and then cry foul , it was our ancestors who marched their pregnant daughters into the work house and then licked the alter rails , we are as much to blame for the situation we are in its time to grow up and take back our sovereignty and act for the next generation , however we did not bankrupt ourselves we were fed money the same a junky is fed a drug and was then taken away from us and then sold at an inflated price as per the plan ..this pattern is as old as time
And dying in your bed many years from now, would you be willing to trade all the days from this day to that for one chance, just one chance to cone back here as young men to tell our enemies, that they may take our lives but they will never take our freedom!!! Quote from William Wallace in Braveheart!!!
Nice to see the Scottish people have the courage to stand up and be counted Irish people are a disgrace we never fight for our rights. We are bullied by the Eu the Imf and our own govt. I hope the yes vote win
And dying in your bed many years from now,
would you be willing to trade all the days from this day to that for
one chance, just one chance, to come back here as young men and tell
our enemies that they may take our lives but they will never take our freedom
A bare majority of one vote will be enough to enable Scotland to emerge an independent nation with its borders intact
No partition , no dismemberment for them
Go Scotland – stand up for yourselves as an independent nation.
Britannia won’t allow the use of the pound? There is always the Euro, dollar or your own?
“Any vote for Scotland to leave Britain would raise questions about Britain’s standing in the international community.”
Yeah, England and Wales would be completely ignored internationally if the 5 million people in Scotland decide to exercise their democratic right and break away. It’s a bit like saying, “the international community ignored Britain once Ireland left the Union!”
It’s easy to see whose press releases you lot are reading anyway!!
Mairead McGuinness has 'made no decision' on presidential bid after Micheal O'Leary's endorsement
1 hr ago
3.3k
18
Clare crash
Woman (30s) seriously injured in two-car crash in Co Clare
1 hr ago
5.7k
arctic reception
JD Vance says US take over of Greenland ‘makes sense’ during scaled back visit
Updated
21 hrs ago
56.2k
150
Your Cookies. Your Choice.
Cookies help provide our news service while also enabling the advertising needed to fund this work.
We categorise cookies as Necessary, Performance (used to analyse the site performance) and Targeting (used to target advertising which helps us keep this service free).
We and our 161 partners store and access personal data, like browsing data or unique identifiers, on your device. Selecting Accept All enables tracking technologies to support the purposes shown under we and our partners process data to provide. If trackers are disabled, some content and ads you see may not be as relevant to you. You can resurface this menu to change your choices or withdraw consent at any time by clicking the Cookie Preferences link on the bottom of the webpage .Your choices will have effect within our Website. For more details, refer to our Privacy Policy.
We and our vendors process data for the following purposes:
Use precise geolocation data. Actively scan device characteristics for identification. Store and/or access information on a device. Personalised advertising and content, advertising and content measurement, audience research and services development.
Cookies Preference Centre
We process your data to deliver content or advertisements and measure the delivery of such content or advertisements to extract insights about our website. We share this information with our partners on the basis of consent. You may exercise your right to consent, based on a specific purpose below or at a partner level in the link under each purpose. Some vendors may process your data based on their legitimate interests, which does not require your consent. You cannot object to tracking technologies placed to ensure security, prevent fraud, fix errors, or deliver and present advertising and content, and precise geolocation data and active scanning of device characteristics for identification may be used to support this purpose. This exception does not apply to targeted advertising. These choices will be signaled to our vendors participating in the Transparency and Consent Framework.
Manage Consent Preferences
Necessary Cookies
Always Active
These cookies are necessary for the website to function and cannot be switched off in our systems. They are usually only set in response to actions made by you which amount to a request for services, such as setting your privacy preferences, logging in or filling in forms. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not then work.
Targeting Cookies
These cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.
Functional Cookies
These cookies enable the website to provide enhanced functionality and personalisation. They may be set by us or by third party providers whose services we have added to our pages. If you do not allow these cookies then these services may not function properly.
Performance Cookies
These cookies allow us to count visits and traffic sources so we can measure and improve the performance of our site. They help us to know which pages are the most and least popular and see how visitors move around the site. All information these cookies collect is aggregated and therefore anonymous. If you do not allow these cookies we will not be able to monitor our performance.
Store and/or access information on a device 110 partners can use this purpose
Cookies, device or similar online identifiers (e.g. login-based identifiers, randomly assigned identifiers, network based identifiers) together with other information (e.g. browser type and information, language, screen size, supported technologies etc.) can be stored or read on your device to recognise it each time it connects to an app or to a website, for one or several of the purposes presented here.
Personalised advertising and content, advertising and content measurement, audience research and services development 143 partners can use this purpose
Use limited data to select advertising 113 partners can use this purpose
Advertising presented to you on this service can be based on limited data, such as the website or app you are using, your non-precise location, your device type or which content you are (or have been) interacting with (for example, to limit the number of times an ad is presented to you).
Create profiles for personalised advertising 83 partners can use this purpose
Information about your activity on this service (such as forms you submit, content you look at) can be stored and combined with other information about you (for example, information from your previous activity on this service and other websites or apps) or similar users. This is then used to build or improve a profile about you (that might include possible interests and personal aspects). Your profile can be used (also later) to present advertising that appears more relevant based on your possible interests by this and other entities.
Use profiles to select personalised advertising 83 partners can use this purpose
Advertising presented to you on this service can be based on your advertising profiles, which can reflect your activity on this service or other websites or apps (like the forms you submit, content you look at), possible interests and personal aspects.
Create profiles to personalise content 39 partners can use this purpose
Information about your activity on this service (for instance, forms you submit, non-advertising content you look at) can be stored and combined with other information about you (such as your previous activity on this service or other websites or apps) or similar users. This is then used to build or improve a profile about you (which might for example include possible interests and personal aspects). Your profile can be used (also later) to present content that appears more relevant based on your possible interests, such as by adapting the order in which content is shown to you, so that it is even easier for you to find content that matches your interests.
Use profiles to select personalised content 35 partners can use this purpose
Content presented to you on this service can be based on your content personalisation profiles, which can reflect your activity on this or other services (for instance, the forms you submit, content you look at), possible interests and personal aspects. This can for example be used to adapt the order in which content is shown to you, so that it is even easier for you to find (non-advertising) content that matches your interests.
Measure advertising performance 134 partners can use this purpose
Information regarding which advertising is presented to you and how you interact with it can be used to determine how well an advert has worked for you or other users and whether the goals of the advertising were reached. For instance, whether you saw an ad, whether you clicked on it, whether it led you to buy a product or visit a website, etc. This is very helpful to understand the relevance of advertising campaigns.
Measure content performance 61 partners can use this purpose
Information regarding which content is presented to you and how you interact with it can be used to determine whether the (non-advertising) content e.g. reached its intended audience and matched your interests. For instance, whether you read an article, watch a video, listen to a podcast or look at a product description, how long you spent on this service and the web pages you visit etc. This is very helpful to understand the relevance of (non-advertising) content that is shown to you.
Understand audiences through statistics or combinations of data from different sources 74 partners can use this purpose
Reports can be generated based on the combination of data sets (like user profiles, statistics, market research, analytics data) regarding your interactions and those of other users with advertising or (non-advertising) content to identify common characteristics (for instance, to determine which target audiences are more receptive to an ad campaign or to certain contents).
Develop and improve services 83 partners can use this purpose
Information about your activity on this service, such as your interaction with ads or content, can be very helpful to improve products and services and to build new products and services based on user interactions, the type of audience, etc. This specific purpose does not include the development or improvement of user profiles and identifiers.
Use limited data to select content 37 partners can use this purpose
Content presented to you on this service can be based on limited data, such as the website or app you are using, your non-precise location, your device type, or which content you are (or have been) interacting with (for example, to limit the number of times a video or an article is presented to you).
Use precise geolocation data 46 partners can use this special feature
With your acceptance, your precise location (within a radius of less than 500 metres) may be used in support of the purposes explained in this notice.
Actively scan device characteristics for identification 27 partners can use this special feature
With your acceptance, certain characteristics specific to your device might be requested and used to distinguish it from other devices (such as the installed fonts or plugins, the resolution of your screen) in support of the purposes explained in this notice.
Ensure security, prevent and detect fraud, and fix errors 92 partners can use this special purpose
Always Active
Your data can be used to monitor for and prevent unusual and possibly fraudulent activity (for example, regarding advertising, ad clicks by bots), and ensure systems and processes work properly and securely. It can also be used to correct any problems you, the publisher or the advertiser may encounter in the delivery of content and ads and in your interaction with them.
Deliver and present advertising and content 99 partners can use this special purpose
Always Active
Certain information (like an IP address or device capabilities) is used to ensure the technical compatibility of the content or advertising, and to facilitate the transmission of the content or ad to your device.
Match and combine data from other data sources 72 partners can use this feature
Always Active
Information about your activity on this service may be matched and combined with other information relating to you and originating from various sources (for instance your activity on a separate online service, your use of a loyalty card in-store, or your answers to a survey), in support of the purposes explained in this notice.
Link different devices 53 partners can use this feature
Always Active
In support of the purposes explained in this notice, your device might be considered as likely linked to other devices that belong to you or your household (for instance because you are logged in to the same service on both your phone and your computer, or because you may use the same Internet connection on both devices).
Identify devices based on information transmitted automatically 88 partners can use this feature
Always Active
Your device might be distinguished from other devices based on information it automatically sends when accessing the Internet (for instance, the IP address of your Internet connection or the type of browser you are using) in support of the purposes exposed in this notice.
Save and communicate privacy choices 69 partners can use this special purpose
Always Active
The choices you make regarding the purposes and entities listed in this notice are saved and made available to those entities in the form of digital signals (such as a string of characters). This is necessary in order to enable both this service and those entities to respect such choices.
have your say