Support from readers like you keeps The Journal open.
You are visiting us because we have something you value. Independent, unbiased news that tells the truth. Advertising revenue goes some way to support our mission, but this year it has not been enough.
If you've seen value in our reporting, please contribute what you can, so we can continue to produce accurate and meaningful journalism. For everyone who needs it.
An account is an optional way to support the work we do. Find out more.
terminator
Is a Terminator-style robot apocalypse a possibility?
And why are scientists afraid to talk about it?
5.30pm, 27 Jul 2014
13.6k
56
WORKING ROBOTICISTS NEED to indulge the public in sci-fi scenarios.
I thought it’d be a cool story to interview academics and robotics professionals about the popular notion of a robot takeover, but four big names in the area declined to talk to me. A fifth person with robo street cred told me on background that people in the community fear that publicly talking about these topics could hurt their credibility, and that they think the topic has already been explained well enough.
Just how realistic is a 'Terminator' scenario? Terminator
Terminator
This is a problem. A good roboticist should have a finger on the pulse of the public’s popular conception of robotics and be able to speak to it. The public doesn’t care about “degrees of freedom” or “state estimation and optimization for mobile robot navigation,” but give a robot a gun and a mission, and they’re enthralled.
More importantly, as I heard from the few roboticists who spoke to me on the record, there are real risks involved going forward, and the time to have a serious discussion about the development and regulation of robots is now.
Robots fight during Japan's Robo-One Championships in Tokyo Screenshot
Screenshot
Most people agree that the robot revolution will have benefits. People disagree about the risks.
Author and physicist Louis Del Monte told us that the robot uprising ”won’t be the ‘Terminator’ scenario, not a war. In the early part of the post-singularity world — after robots become smarter than humans — one scenario is that the machines will seek to turn humans into cyborgs. This is nearly happening now, replacing faulty limbs with artificial parts. We’ll see the machines as a useful tool.”
Frank Tobe, editor and publisher of the business-focused Robot Report, subscribes to the views of Google futurist Ray Kurzweil on the singularity, that we’re close to developing machines that can outperform the human mind, perhaps by 2045. He says we shouldn’t take this lightly.
I’ve become concerned that now is the time to set in motion limits, controls, and guidelines for the development and deployment of future robotic-like devices.
“It’s time to decide whether future robots will have superpowers — which themselves will be subject to exponential rates of progress — or be limited to services under man’s control,” Tobe said. “Superman or valet? I choose the latter, but I’m concerned that politicians and governments, particularly their departments of defense and industry lobbyists, will choose the former.”
Kurzweil contends that as various research projects plumb the depths of the human brain with software, humankind itself will be improved by offshoot therapies and implants.
“This seems logical to me,” Tobe said. “Nevertheless, until we choose the valet option, we have to be wary that sociopathic behaviors can be programmed into future bots with unimaginable consequences.”
Advertisement
Ryan Calo Screenshot
Screenshot
Ryan Calo, assistant professor of law at the University of Washington with an eye on robot ethics and policy, does not see a machine uprising ever happening:
Based on what I read, and on conversations I have had with a wide variety of roboticists and computer scientists, I do not believe machines will surpass human intelligence — in the sense of achieving ‘strong’ or ‘general’ AI — in the foreseeable future.
“Even if processing power continues to advance, we would need an achievement in software on par with the work of Mozart to reproduce consciousness.”
Calo adds, however, that we should watch for warnings leading up to a potential singularity moment. If we see robots become more multipurpose and contextually aware then they may then be “on their way to strong AI,” says Calo. That will be a tip that they’re advancing to the point of danger for humans.
Calo has also recently said that robotic capability needs to be regulated.
Andra Keay, managing director of Silicon Valley Robotics, also doesn’t foresee a guns a’ blazin’ robot war, but she says there are issues we should confront: ”I don’t believe in a head-on conflict between humans and machines, but I do think that machines may profoundly change the way we live and unless we pay attention to the shifting economical and ethical boundaries, then we will create a worse world for the future,” she said. “It’s up to us.”
Most people agree that the robot revolution will have benefits. People disagree about the risks. RobotRobot
In contrast to this, Jorge Heraud, CEO of agricultural robotics company Blue River Technology, offers a fairly middle-of-the-road point of view: “Yes, someday [robots and machines] will [surpass human intelligence]. Early on, robots/machines will be better at some tasks and (much) worse at others. It’ll take a very long while until a single robot/machine will surpass human intelligence in a broad number of tasks. [It will be] much longer until it’s better in all.”
When asked if if the singularity would look like a missing scene from “Terminator” or if it would be more subtle than that, Heraud said, “Much more subtle. Think C-3PO. We don’t have anything to worry for a long while.”
Regardless of the risk, it shouldn’t be controversial that we need to discuss and regulate the future of robotics.
Northwestern Law professor John O. McGinnis makes clear how we can win the robot revolution right now in his paper, “Accelerating AI” [emphasis ours]:
“Even a non-anthropomorphic human intelligence still could pose threats to mankind, but they are probably manageable threats. The greatest problem is that such artificial intelligence may be indifferent to human welfare. Thus, for instance, unless otherwise programmed, it could solve problems in ways that could lead to harm against humans.”
But indifference, rather than innate malevolence, is much more easily cured. Artificial intelligence can be programmed to weigh human values in its decision making. The key will be to assure such programming.
Long before any battle scenes ripped from science fiction actually take place, the real battle will be in the hands of the people building and designing artificially intelligent systems. Many of the same people who declined to be interviewed for this story are the ones who must stand up as heroes to save humanity from blockbuster science fiction terror in the real world.
Forget the missiles and lasers — the only weapons of consequence here will be algorithms and the human minds creating them.
Readers like you are keeping these stories free for everyone...
A mix of advertising and supporting contributions helps keep paywalls away from valuable information like this article.
Over 5,000 readers like you have already stepped up and support us with a monthly payment or a once-off donation.
@james spice: We dip the trimmings in beaten egg, seasoned flour (pepper and chilli flakes) and fry them in a little oil. Lemon juice over the top and it’s Amazing.
People come on here and are happy to say ‘I love animals’ but the truth is that you love to eat animals – there is no difference between a dog/calf/pig/cat they are all sentient beings yet we have factory farmed some and live with others – it’s called Speciesism
@The world outside the M50: our biology allows us to eat plant matter, but it doesn’t preclude consuming animal matter. Your arguement is the basis to allow choice, not to prove that we are herbivores who force ourselves to also be carnivores.
@The world outside the M50: Cant disagree. I love cows and pigs as animals but I also love eating them. It’s possible to do both at the same time. We’re animals at the end of the day and animals eat other animals.
Cants stand turkeys though so it’s always prime rib or leg of lamb in this house on Christmas Day.
@The world outside the M50: I would also point out that whilst in Western cultures we don’t tend to eat cat or dog, those species are consumed elsewhere. Most cultures happily consume insects, protein intensive, but such thought is abhorrent to western sensitivities. These are cultural artifacts, not based upon any biological requirements in terms of selectivity. For millenia we have been hunter-gatherer omnivores, and it is only with the development of food technology, in terms of alternative sources of vitamins, minerals and protein, that the biological feasibility of a vegan, vegetarian diet has become sustainable
@The world outside the M50: don’t mix up the decision to eat meat with modern industrial scale agriculture, both meat and vegetables. Both have resulted in the mass destruction of ecosystems and generally results in poorer quality food. It is well accepted that as a species, particularly in developed countries, we over-produce both meat and plant based foods for what we biologically require. Biologically we require a balance between both meat and plant, but also need to reduce consumption of both in Western society. Free-range and organic as much as possible. I also voted in the poll that I’d be happy with a non-meat Christmas dinner.
@The world outside the M50: every time i see a vegan preaching, i make a conscious effort to eat meat the next day just to ironically offset any good they think they are doing. I now have a steak in my fridge which will 100% be used tomorrow. Thanks for the preach, i will definitely enjoy it.
@john smith iv: ‘Canine Teeth’ ! – what a joke – when was the last time you used your so called ‘Canines’ to rip an animal to death and tear it apart ?
The largest Canines on the planet belong to a Hippopotamus who of course – like all large animals – is a herbivore.
@Ciaran: Helped, yes. But our mastery of fire a 1,000,000 years ago allowed us to cook food. Cooking food is a form of pre-digestion, that effectively makes food more energy-dense. It’s that which gave us the advantage, as it freed us from constant foraging.
@Fachtna Roe: True, hot food’s also a source of warmth in winter. Interestingly, I recently discovered that people with various common food allergies can indeed eat those foods if baked, which bears out your theory of making a wider range of foods digestible to us humans.
@Keith Fay: Nobody has ever introduced themselves to me as Hi I am whatever, and then said I eat meat. I have been met with hello my name is whatever, I am a vegetarian, vegan or whatever version the follow.
There are a lot of independent places and restaurants that do meat alternative roasts that can be pre-ordered, they’re really good. Even quorn’s roast is great to replace real meat, it tastes like lamb. I know most meat eaters shudder at the thoughts of this, i was the same. When i became vegetarian the one worry i had was how disappointing Christmas dinner was going to be, i was totally wrong, the meat substitutes out there have filled the hole perfectly
@Keith Fay: Meat substitutes are muck and will always be a poor cousin taste wise to the real thing. If anyone decides to go vegetarian they need to get away from the idea of always trying to replace meat. There are loads of vegetarian options that are tasty on their own.
@Gavin Linden: pre-ordering means ordering before the release date. It’s a very common thing especially in the music and video game industry. You can’t order them as they’re not released so you pre-order, very simple.
@Brian Farrell: i mean technically anything replacing meat is a meat substitute, like a nit roast or vegetable wellington. i know what you mean though about the overly processed stuff like quorn. The roasts i mentioned are usually made from seitan or soya and are really good.
@Keith Fay: Ah yes Keith, and that too is called ‘ordering’. Very simple, no pre, prior or any other letters need to be added to that word.
Not currently the biggest issue in my life at the moment but it does join a whole range of other BS words from the hipster crowd that are completely meaningless.
@Keith Fay: I normally make a mushroom and nut roast, gone for variations over the years but always love it. sprouts and roast potatoes I love as well.
@Stu Cullum: but they have no capacity for ‘future thought’, no conscience or awareness of mortality, just learned reactions. They are not truly sentient if they can only think of the past, the present, but never of the future?
@Inno Items: I think that for purposes of this argument/calculation, you mean “plants ehtaerb”. (As if multiplying across by -1 to allow for the directionality of the oxygen consumption) ;)
@Jack Russell: Some day you should watch the strategies of working dogs in action. Those champion dogs are expert at anticipating the ploys of strays and predators alike, and their brains are excellent at independent thought – vital when the utility dogs are monitoring a flock alone for days at a time in the mountains.
If it were me against a hunting lioness, I wouldn’t bet on myself to outwit her either! A cat could run rings around me. No, I’m not even talking about muscle memory, vastly superior smelling ability & interpretation, and faster reflexes, but the expertise with which they manœuvre. It’s not called “cat chess” for nothing – Malamutes are even better at it.
Homer: Lisa, honey, are you saying you’re never going to eat any animal again? What about bacon?
Lisa: No.
Homer: Ham?
Lisa: No.
Homer: Pork chops?
Lisa: Dad! Those all come from the same animal!
Homer: [chuckling] Yeah, right, Lisa. A wonderful, magical animal.
Even when we finally do become a mostly meatless society, people will still save delicacies for Christmas day. I eat less meat than I used to eat, but I wouldn’t ever skip my turkey on Christmas day.
@John Murphy: It’s never going to happen people will always eat meat the greens and the Vegans will constantly lie through their teeth about the sustainability of grass fed meat but ploughing the earth releases far more carbon than leaving it in pasture with cattle or sheep. To be honest I’m sick and tired of social and main stream media giving tiny minorities excessive air time to force their opinions down everyone’s throat and try force them to do what they want and Vegans are by far the worst their diet isn’t even sustainable without tons of supplements even though they will deny this, and then you have the dipsticks that force their vegan diet onto their almost exclusively meat eating dogs and cats and end up starving them. Humans are naturally omnivores and no amount of propaganda will change that
@Michael McGrath: Why are you being so divisive and polarising in the way you speak about it? Has some vegan hurt you as a child or something? If You cared, you can say the exact same thing about meat eaters; they often shove it in my face about how I’m not eating properly, won’t be filled if there’s no meat or not getting my required vitamins when I try to enjoy a lovely meal. Or if I’m at a deli and order a role without meat in it.
I am mostly a vegetarian (not vegan) and I never shove it in anyone’s face. I only talk about it if asked. And if you cared to know, most vegetarians/vegans will have to let you know if they’re in your house so you don’t serve them a plate of carcass and make them feel bad/rude when they don’t eat it.
@Tomo: How am I being divisive and polarising I am telling it as it is if anyone is being polarising it’s the activist side of Veganism, I’m not thick obviously the vast amount of vegetarian and vegan people just eat what they want and mind their own affairs I drive home from work everyday along a motorway with a big billboard sign that changes periodically from #GoVeganWorld berating us for the evils of eating meat, now they have latched onto the agriculture carbon footprint b.s on their latest sign that the greens are spouting about. I couldn’t give a fig what a person wants to eat that’s their business but what I eat is my business as well. And your on about Vegans only informing people about their diet when invited to a meal, I know someone who went to a doctor last week who informed him that he was a vegan and that he would benefit greatly from the vegan diet like he did. Now could you imagine a meat eating Dr doing the same thing… Don’t think so
@Michael McGrath: I was thinking of the extreme long term ~100 years plus. By then we would be growing food with new methods hydroponics etc
But even then I’d still say people will want to eat meat. It may be grown in a more humane way though.
@Michael McGrath: Odd – I’ve never had a ‘supplement’ – when was the last time you were Vegan and can prove you needed a ‘supplement’ ?
We are not ‘naturally omnivores’ – our long intestines are there for to digest plant material not meat.
If you are such a meat eater when was the last time you went to kill and eat an animal ?
I went vegan for 6 months and got very run down and lacked lots of vitamins. I will never give up meat again, specially at Christmas. Turkey sandwiches yum.
@Anna Carr: Then you did not understand Veganism – it is NOT a diet – it is a way of life to not harm any living creature.
Any balanced diet will resolve your vitamin deficiencies.
If you are saying ‘yum’ to the eating of a dead animal then you did not understand veganism
—–An important notice for all vegans and everybody else too —–From now on you are only allowed to eat vegetables that have been grown using imported peat products——-By order of the Irish Greens!
@Martin Doyle: Because the likes of Raymond Scott and their terrible takes on mask wearing would be lured into those comments sections talking nonsense that would require their comments to be removed anyway. Better to keep them closed so they can’t be heard.
I love dogs and cats, and know my cats have the short gut of a carnivore and cannot live on vegetables. I will spend money on an ethically reared turkey, and give titbits to my darlings. A little meat, now and then, properly farmed
@lynda kennedy: Yes, Cats are ‘obligate carnivores’ like all the cat creatures – they have short intestines getting a burst of energy from meat. – Again there are alternatives but we are not talking about Cat food here.
There are no ‘ethically reared’ turkeys – they cannot procreate themselves due to their upper body weight – they are killed for your table – that is not ethical.
I could never understand the coupling of turkey and ham, two fairly dry meats what ever way you prepare and cook them. Got a tip many years ago to go with turkey and bacon.
Cracking combination, just do the bacon in the normal way and you’ll never look back.
@Michael McGrath: Cut the legs off and cook them separately. The breast will be done in an hour and be moist. Especially if smothered in butter and wrapped in streaky rashers
Vegans and veggies do know if we all gave up meat all these animals wouldn’t even exist except in a zoo or the odd farm . It’s so expensive to look after and care for them
TBH, as a dinner guest, I wouldn’t touch the vegetarian side dishes unless encouraged. I’ve been to some parties (in the past) where the homecooked vegetarian or vegan sides were so tasty that they were golloped up by the early arrivals, leaving the vegans a bit short of hot food!
going by the comments here it really is no wonder we are in the middle of a pandemic. every bite either fights or feeds disease. unfortunately most people choose the latter
Looking forward to turkey! Bird and fish are the only remaining meats i have no conscience about eating. I do succumb sometimes to a quater pounder! There will come a time when we will look back and think how odd we were to eat other mammals.
Enough of this vegan nonsense already. It’s akin to the temperence movements in the U.S. that led to prohibition. Enforced morality is never good for society.
Why do vegans and such always preach at us meat eater/
Do they think that being talked down to and insulted will make us repent and never eat meat again.
All that does is make people dislike the message even more because the person spreading the message insults them.
I respect people and they should respect me, respect our differences like I respect yours.
White House confirms Defence Secretary accidentally texted military plans to strike Yemen to journalist
Updated
18 mins ago
26.0k
75
Courts
62-year-old businessman remanded in custody in connection with €10.6m cocaine seizure
23 Mar
37.8k
Your Cookies. Your Choice.
Cookies help provide our news service while also enabling the advertising needed to fund this work.
We categorise cookies as Necessary, Performance (used to analyse the site performance) and Targeting (used to target advertising which helps us keep this service free).
We and our 160 partners store and access personal data, like browsing data or unique identifiers, on your device. Selecting Accept All enables tracking technologies to support the purposes shown under we and our partners process data to provide. If trackers are disabled, some content and ads you see may not be as relevant to you. You can resurface this menu to change your choices or withdraw consent at any time by clicking the Cookie Preferences link on the bottom of the webpage .Your choices will have effect within our Website. For more details, refer to our Privacy Policy.
We and our vendors process data for the following purposes:
Use precise geolocation data. Actively scan device characteristics for identification. Store and/or access information on a device. Personalised advertising and content, advertising and content measurement, audience research and services development.
Cookies Preference Centre
We process your data to deliver content or advertisements and measure the delivery of such content or advertisements to extract insights about our website. We share this information with our partners on the basis of consent. You may exercise your right to consent, based on a specific purpose below or at a partner level in the link under each purpose. Some vendors may process your data based on their legitimate interests, which does not require your consent. You cannot object to tracking technologies placed to ensure security, prevent fraud, fix errors, or deliver and present advertising and content, and precise geolocation data and active scanning of device characteristics for identification may be used to support this purpose. This exception does not apply to targeted advertising. These choices will be signaled to our vendors participating in the Transparency and Consent Framework.
Manage Consent Preferences
Necessary Cookies
Always Active
These cookies are necessary for the website to function and cannot be switched off in our systems. They are usually only set in response to actions made by you which amount to a request for services, such as setting your privacy preferences, logging in or filling in forms. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not then work.
Targeting Cookies
These cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.
Functional Cookies
These cookies enable the website to provide enhanced functionality and personalisation. They may be set by us or by third party providers whose services we have added to our pages. If you do not allow these cookies then these services may not function properly.
Performance Cookies
These cookies allow us to count visits and traffic sources so we can measure and improve the performance of our site. They help us to know which pages are the most and least popular and see how visitors move around the site. All information these cookies collect is aggregated and therefore anonymous. If you do not allow these cookies we will not be able to monitor our performance.
Store and/or access information on a device 110 partners can use this purpose
Cookies, device or similar online identifiers (e.g. login-based identifiers, randomly assigned identifiers, network based identifiers) together with other information (e.g. browser type and information, language, screen size, supported technologies etc.) can be stored or read on your device to recognise it each time it connects to an app or to a website, for one or several of the purposes presented here.
Personalised advertising and content, advertising and content measurement, audience research and services development 142 partners can use this purpose
Use limited data to select advertising 112 partners can use this purpose
Advertising presented to you on this service can be based on limited data, such as the website or app you are using, your non-precise location, your device type or which content you are (or have been) interacting with (for example, to limit the number of times an ad is presented to you).
Create profiles for personalised advertising 83 partners can use this purpose
Information about your activity on this service (such as forms you submit, content you look at) can be stored and combined with other information about you (for example, information from your previous activity on this service and other websites or apps) or similar users. This is then used to build or improve a profile about you (that might include possible interests and personal aspects). Your profile can be used (also later) to present advertising that appears more relevant based on your possible interests by this and other entities.
Use profiles to select personalised advertising 83 partners can use this purpose
Advertising presented to you on this service can be based on your advertising profiles, which can reflect your activity on this service or other websites or apps (like the forms you submit, content you look at), possible interests and personal aspects.
Create profiles to personalise content 38 partners can use this purpose
Information about your activity on this service (for instance, forms you submit, non-advertising content you look at) can be stored and combined with other information about you (such as your previous activity on this service or other websites or apps) or similar users. This is then used to build or improve a profile about you (which might for example include possible interests and personal aspects). Your profile can be used (also later) to present content that appears more relevant based on your possible interests, such as by adapting the order in which content is shown to you, so that it is even easier for you to find content that matches your interests.
Use profiles to select personalised content 34 partners can use this purpose
Content presented to you on this service can be based on your content personalisation profiles, which can reflect your activity on this or other services (for instance, the forms you submit, content you look at), possible interests and personal aspects. This can for example be used to adapt the order in which content is shown to you, so that it is even easier for you to find (non-advertising) content that matches your interests.
Measure advertising performance 133 partners can use this purpose
Information regarding which advertising is presented to you and how you interact with it can be used to determine how well an advert has worked for you or other users and whether the goals of the advertising were reached. For instance, whether you saw an ad, whether you clicked on it, whether it led you to buy a product or visit a website, etc. This is very helpful to understand the relevance of advertising campaigns.
Measure content performance 59 partners can use this purpose
Information regarding which content is presented to you and how you interact with it can be used to determine whether the (non-advertising) content e.g. reached its intended audience and matched your interests. For instance, whether you read an article, watch a video, listen to a podcast or look at a product description, how long you spent on this service and the web pages you visit etc. This is very helpful to understand the relevance of (non-advertising) content that is shown to you.
Understand audiences through statistics or combinations of data from different sources 74 partners can use this purpose
Reports can be generated based on the combination of data sets (like user profiles, statistics, market research, analytics data) regarding your interactions and those of other users with advertising or (non-advertising) content to identify common characteristics (for instance, to determine which target audiences are more receptive to an ad campaign or to certain contents).
Develop and improve services 83 partners can use this purpose
Information about your activity on this service, such as your interaction with ads or content, can be very helpful to improve products and services and to build new products and services based on user interactions, the type of audience, etc. This specific purpose does not include the development or improvement of user profiles and identifiers.
Use limited data to select content 37 partners can use this purpose
Content presented to you on this service can be based on limited data, such as the website or app you are using, your non-precise location, your device type, or which content you are (or have been) interacting with (for example, to limit the number of times a video or an article is presented to you).
Use precise geolocation data 46 partners can use this special feature
With your acceptance, your precise location (within a radius of less than 500 metres) may be used in support of the purposes explained in this notice.
Actively scan device characteristics for identification 27 partners can use this special feature
With your acceptance, certain characteristics specific to your device might be requested and used to distinguish it from other devices (such as the installed fonts or plugins, the resolution of your screen) in support of the purposes explained in this notice.
Ensure security, prevent and detect fraud, and fix errors 92 partners can use this special purpose
Always Active
Your data can be used to monitor for and prevent unusual and possibly fraudulent activity (for example, regarding advertising, ad clicks by bots), and ensure systems and processes work properly and securely. It can also be used to correct any problems you, the publisher or the advertiser may encounter in the delivery of content and ads and in your interaction with them.
Deliver and present advertising and content 99 partners can use this special purpose
Always Active
Certain information (like an IP address or device capabilities) is used to ensure the technical compatibility of the content or advertising, and to facilitate the transmission of the content or ad to your device.
Match and combine data from other data sources 72 partners can use this feature
Always Active
Information about your activity on this service may be matched and combined with other information relating to you and originating from various sources (for instance your activity on a separate online service, your use of a loyalty card in-store, or your answers to a survey), in support of the purposes explained in this notice.
Link different devices 53 partners can use this feature
Always Active
In support of the purposes explained in this notice, your device might be considered as likely linked to other devices that belong to you or your household (for instance because you are logged in to the same service on both your phone and your computer, or because you may use the same Internet connection on both devices).
Identify devices based on information transmitted automatically 88 partners can use this feature
Always Active
Your device might be distinguished from other devices based on information it automatically sends when accessing the Internet (for instance, the IP address of your Internet connection or the type of browser you are using) in support of the purposes exposed in this notice.
Save and communicate privacy choices 69 partners can use this special purpose
Always Active
The choices you make regarding the purposes and entities listed in this notice are saved and made available to those entities in the form of digital signals (such as a string of characters). This is necessary in order to enable both this service and those entities to respect such choices.
have your say