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CHIEF MEDICAL OFFICER Dr. Tony Holohan has told the government that up to 10% of the population, some 500,000 people, may have had Covid-19 last week.
The estimate is contained in a 6 January letter from Holohan to Health Minister Stephen Donnelly and is based on the incidence of the virus in the population and “constraints on testing”.
The letter records that there were 136,960 reported cases in the week to 5 January 2022, giving rise to a 14-day incidence rate that is 4,450 per 100,000. The highest ever incidence rate and almost three times higher than in January 2021.
“Given the 7-day cumulative incidence of 2,876 per 100,000, allowing for constraints on testing and undetected infections, the likely population prevalence of active SARS-CoV-2 infection is 5.7%- 9.6%; between 1 in 10 and 1 in 20 of the population are likely to be infected,” Holohan says.
The letter records that positivity rates for testing was above 60% for the week and that the test and trace system was “at surge capacity and under severe pressure”.
The scale of infection estimated has been accelerated by the spread of the Omicron variant of Covid-19, which NPHET estimates accounts for 96% of new cases.
Europe is now the epicentre of the Omicron variant, with the World Health Organisation saying today that over half of the people in Europe are projected to catch Omicron by March.
Concern
Holohan says in his letter that the overall Covid-19 situation “continues to give rise for concern” but that there are “initial positive indications in terms of markers of disease”.
NPHET’s decision following it meeting on 6 January not to recommend any additional restrictions was also reflected in the letter:
NPHET agreed, therefore, with the exception of those outlined below, that the measures the government has put in place until 30 January should be maintained until that date, and that no additional measures are indicated at this time.
The letter says that a report on hospital admissions will be prepared before NPHET’s next meeting on 20 January.
The CMO notes that the number of new cases in hospitals “are high and increasing” but that the numbers in ICU and those requiring ventilation have “remained relatively stable”.
Holohan notes that the incidence of Covid-19 hasn’t yet translated to “increased critical care admissions or mortality” and that this can be attributed to:
Potential contributory factors include the age profile of recent cases, the protection conferred by immunity (both vaccine induced and natural) in preventing or delaying progression to severe disease, and lower intrinsic virulence of Omicron compared with previous variants.
Speaking to The Journal last week, Professor Ross Morgan, Consultant in Respiratory Medicine at Beaumont Hospital, said the “data is not quite mature enough yet” to determine Omicron’s effect on hospital admissions.
Morgan said “nobody in Ireland is hospitalised with mild anything” and he outlined three broad categories of Covid patients in Irish hospitals: unvaccinated patients, vaccinated individuals who suffer a complication due to the virus, such as a blood clot condition, and vaccinated people who have an underlying medical condition that leaves them immunocompromised.
Mortality
Holohan’s letter notes that deaths from Covid-19 “remain stable”, with 157 deaths in December notified up to 5 January, following 230 deaths in November and 217 deaths in October.
The letter cautions that the notification of deaths may have been delayed over the Christmas period
Holohan notes that “Covid-19 mortality has remained relatively stable” but that a recent increase in outbreaks in settings with vulnerable people “was being closely monitored”.
In the letter, Holohan also recommends clearer advice that medical and respirator masks ‘offer greater protection’.
- With reporting by Céimin Burke
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Did anyone explain the rules of fight club to these people!
@Darren Ahern: Seems they did… hence no one’s talkin’ about it!?
@Joe Phillips: they made a Snapchat group about it sure that’s worse than talking about it!
@Darren Ahern: They are cowards, gangs attacking one or two people, not really a fight club.
@Darren Ahern: Haha! Good point
Although I don’t remember hearin’ Tyler Durden mention snapchat so, technically…
@Darren Ahern: came here for this comment. Was not disappointed
People don’t report stuff because Guards do nothing about it the majority of the time. And if they do something, the courts don’t follow through. There is no justice for victims in Ireland.
Can’t do anything if it’s not reported.
@Anthony: Can’t do anything when crimes are reported either apparently.
@Carol Oates: moral of the story: never try
@Carol Oates: “apparently”
@Carol Oates: something tells me you want to see more criminals doing porridge.
@Carol Oates: I didnt know Ireland has a 0% crime detection rate…….. why have you hidden this from us for so long… all wise and powerful one
@Carol Oates: It’s sadly true. Someone without a previous conviction would likely be given a suspended sentence for assault in this country, if it can even be proven through the courts. For victims the idea of taking on a gang like this when none of them are taken off the streets is terrifying since the chances of them or one of their comrades coming for revenge is high.
@Carol Oates: all the gardai do is issue speeding fines
@Rochelle: Exactly right.
I’m in no way condoning any of the behaviour described here but I cannot imagine what my childhood would have been like if all the fights that went on when I was young had been filmed.
Two opposing schools fighting down the park….. fights after school….
Can’t say I can think of strangers ever being randomly attacked but there was a lot of fights when I was young that I’m very glad there is no evidence of today.
@Bob Earner: I always get a chuckle out of the “kids these days”’comments from older generations. The same stuff and worse went on back the. Just there wasn’t cameras everywhere to record it or social media to share it
@Kian: It’s the weirdest form of amnesia!!
Can you imagine if every fight resulted in a criminal assault charge!? 60% of my school would have been up in front of the Childrens Panel!
@Bob Earner: There has always been fights after school. But these youths seem to be recording random vicious assaults just for the fun of it. A big difference.
@Kian: ha exactly. If there’s a gun attack : jaysus the worst I ever saw was a knife.
If there’s a knife attack : why can’t they just use their God given fists the cowards!
Use fists : what is wrong with these monsters bring back the rope
@Bob Earner: War of the Buttons is a classic Irish children’s film about two rival schools baiting lumps out if each other.
any shyte bag who randomly attacks someone should be tarred, feathered and forced into the wilderness to fend for themselves
@Eon Cocker: and blow we go live to the 1700s
@Seriously stunned: and now we go live to the 1700s.
Gardai are only getting involved and making a statement in the media because it’s in the public eye and they have to be seen to be doing something. Especially after the recent stats on young offenders getting away with a slew of crimes. They couldn’t care less about teenagers fighting, in reality.
Don’t bother reporting it to the guards they are useless. I witnessed a car being broken into at the weekend rang the guards to report it & they never came, an hour later my wife rang back & reported it again, they never came and now the car is just sitting there wrecked. The scrotes sat in it for an hour trying to get it started and then just walked away.
@Tom Sawyer: no money in responding to that.
We effectively have no police force in this country now as all their time is taken up gathering revenue for the Government by harassing hard working people going about their business.
No other European people would put up with this lunacy
@Pius Flynn: 10 people dead in 7 days on Irish roads! I think enforcing road traffic legislation is a worthwhile endeavour
Why do people insist on sh*tting on the Gardai when the article clearly states that they are pro-actively trying to sort the problem out?
@Pius Flynn: What exactly are you getting at? Hard-working people speeding; not paying tax; insurance; unsafe vehicles? And if you think that no other Europeans would put up with this, I invite you to try any of the above in France, the Uk, Spain or Germany. You might be surprised to find yourself walking home.
@David Irwin: it depends on what legislation you are talking about.
And anyway we have enough laws, we need training for young drivers, and roads that are safe to drive on.
@George Salter: In other country’s they have technology called number plate recognition, you were probably too busy shining the local superintendents shoes to hear about it.
In other country’s if the police tried to set up checkpoints like they do here, they would be driven across, and rightfully so.
If you pay your tax and insurance and you have a valid drivers license you should be able to go about your business unhindered.
The police have far too much power in this country, it’s a police state really.
Make the statements before someone dies.
His name is Robert Paulson…
Could we not just get some undercover Gardai to join the group and go beat the bejaysus out of them?
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