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ON 7 MAY, the United Kingdom will vote in an election which it appears increasingly likely that no one will win outright.
This means a bout of post-election talks and deals are in the offing – all fairly unfamiliar territory for UK politicians. In 2010, the Conservative Party, without an overall majority, negotiated the first UK coalition government with the Liberal Democrats since the end of the Second World War.
All indications are that another coalition will be required to form a government after the people have their say next month. But what’s at stake, who are the personalities, and what’s likely to happen. TheJournal.ie explains all….
State of Play: Why British politics is a bit like Irish politics
Like Fine Gael and Labour, the Conservatives and Lib Dems have held together for the last five years, but it hasn’t always been easy. Over the past year both parties have been ‘consciously uncoupling’ in a bid to outline their own unique identities to the electorate. (You can expect more of this from FG and Labour in the coming months)
Not unlike the situation here, the Conservatives have benefited from the UK economy beginning to grow again and a chancellor whose ‘long term economic plan’ is seen by many to be working (see Fine Gael and Michael Noonan). David Cameron, not unlike Enda Kenny, is sometimes perceived as out of touch, but, not unlike the Taoiseach, he does a good photo-op:
https://vine.co/v/OlU2V1pWjZT
Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats have taken much of the flak for unpopular measures, like tripling student tuition fees, which they had pledged to abolish before the 2010 election, (see Labour and its ‘Every Little Hurts’ leaflet).
Their leader has cut a forlorn and tired-looking figure for much of the last five years but, unlike Eamon Gilmore, Nick Clegg has held on and leads his party into an election where they face annihilation in large parts of the country.
https://vine.co/v/Objh5hHvQXI
Over on the opposition benches, Labour, which had been in government for 13 years (see Fianna Fáil), has suffered from leader Ed Miliband‘s many perceived weaknesses. Many, even in his own party, don’t rate him as prime minister material and believe his brother, David, would have been a better choice.
Some view him as being too closely aligned to the previous administration having been a close ally of former PM Gordon Brown. That’s not unlike how some people think Micheál Martin is too closely aligned with Fianna Fáil’s past. Still, Martin does not have Miliband’s undoubted sex appeal:
https://vine.co/v/MHxD3gMMiiP
Then there’s the insurgent nationalist party, the Scottish National Party (SNP), which is gobbling up Labour votes in Scotland. Not unlike Sinn Féin, the SNP is capitalising on the general distrust and apathy that voters increasingly feel about mainstream political parties.
Another party capitalising on people’s antipathy towards the mainstream political forces is UKIP, the UK Independence Party, led by the controversial Nigel Farage.
https://vine.co/v/OlmbOJrveQj
Its primary aim is to withdraw the UK from the EU. UKIP is considered to have forced Cameron into pledging a referendum in EU membership in 2017 – if he’s still in power. The Tories have lost a number of MPs to UKIP in recent months.
Then there are the smaller parties like the Green Party, which has one MP and could get a few more elected next month, and regional parties like the DUP, the UUP, the SDLP and Sinn Féin in the North. Not forgetting Plaid Cymru, the Welsh nationalist party.
The electoral system: Why British politics is actually not like Irish politics
So there are quite a few parties in the mix, but there are two certainties after the election on 7 May:
This is because the UK’s electoral system, First Past the Post (FPTP), benefits the big parties.
Under FPTP, the candidate who wins the most votes is deemed elected. There is no quota, no eliminations, and no second or third counts.
The effect of the system is that big parties gain a disproportionately larger share of seats, while small parties get a disproportionately smaller share of seats.
For example, in 2010, the Lib Dems increased their share of the vote but actually returned five fewer MPs than they did in 2005. It’s because of this that UKIP, although enjoying as much as 15 per cent support in opinion polls, may return as few as one or two MPs in May.
This may all strike you as terribly unfair but it’s what British people want. In 2011 a referendum to switch to the alternative vote system was defeated.
FPTP brings a degree of certainty in that theoretically you have a strong, single-party government that can implement its policies without needing to compromise on its manifesto pledges. Since 1945, 16 of the 18 UK governments have been single-party majorities.
But the polls indicate that’s not what the people want right now…
As we’ve already mentioned all polls right now indicate that neither the Conservatives nor Labour will emerge with an overall majority after the election. One of the two main parties would need be pushing over 35 per cent to win an outright majority.
Why can’t one of the big two win enough support?
The Conservatives, with the Lib Dems, have overseen huge budget cuts over the last five years, implementing unprecedented austerity in an attempt to grapple with the UK’s spiralling budget deficit. This peaked at around £150 billion in the dying days of the previous Labour administration.
Despite the severe cuts, the UK economy is now growing again and unemployment is falling. But Labour argues that austerity has had a devastating effect on living standards. It says the well-off have not been hit as hardest as the, er, less well-off.
It’s the economy, stupid…
Both parties are obsessed with the deficit – the gap between what the government spends and what it takes in in tax.
The Tories pledged to eliminate it by now, but have only succeeded in halving it while insisting it will be gone if given a second term. The Conservative message is that the UK is on the road to recovery and that this will be secured if it is returned to Downing Street.
Meanwhile, Labour criticises the Tories for not sticking to the promise to eliminate the deficit. The opposition party says it will get rid of the deficit, but do it in a fairer way. It’s proposing a bankers’ bonus tax and a tax on mansions, among other revenue-raising measures.
In the middle are the Lib Dems who have pledged to stop the Tories from cutting too much and stop Labour from borrowing too much.
Though by many estimates the beleaguered party is set to have its number of MPs halved (and Clegg could even lose his own seat) the party could still have a significant role to play in coalition negotiations after the next election.
What about the other parties?
The recent seven-way leaders debate put smaller parties on the radar, most notably the SNP, whose leader Nicola Sturgeon has risen to prominence in recent days and drawn the ire of some on the right:
But the SNP could be significant power brokers at the next election. Polls put the party on course to nearly wipeout Labour in Scotland and sweep over 40 Westminster seats.
The SNP’s raison d’etre is for Scotland to secede from the UK but that’s not on the horizon after last autumn’s referendum defeat. So, Sturgeon’s pitch to voters is for an ‘anti-austerity progressive alliance’.
This would seemingly make the SNP natural bedfellows with Labour, and indeed there’s been talk of ‘locking David Cameron out of Downing Sreet’. But Ed Miliband has already ruled out any formal coalition with the SNP having been somewhat spooked by this rather excellent Conservative election poster:
HOWEVER, that does not discount the possibility that Labour could govern as a minority with the support of the SNP on an issue-by-issue basis.
Where do UKIP and the other parties fall into this?
It’s all a numbers game. The more seats you have the more influence you wield. As we explained already UKIP is not on course to return the number of seats that its opinion poll support would return under the Irish electoral system.
But despite this the party has undoubtedly succeeded in ensuring the larger parties are talking about its major concerns. Among these are immigration and the EU referendum, something Labour has NOT pledged to hold.
The Green Party was buoyed by the election of its then-leader, Caroline Lucas, to the House of Commons five years ago but its progress, which has mainly involved attracting Labour voters, has been hampered by current party leader Natalie Bennett enduring a series of car crash interviews.
What about the DUP, SDLP and Sinn Féin up the North?
The DUP would be considered sympathetic to the Conservative Party and would likely side with Cameron if he needs the DUP’s support after the next election.
The SDLP would likely side with Labour. Meanwhile, the Tories’ suggestion that Sinn Féin could prop up Labour after the election has been given short shrift.
Sinn Féin’s policy of abstention from Westminster will continue, as party leader Gerry Adams insisted last month. The party currently has five unoccupied seats in the London parliament.
So, what’s actually going to happen then?
It really is just too close to call. With 326 seats needed for an overall majority, it appears neither Labour nor the Conservatives will reach that number.
All forecasts currently point to a hung parliament with the Conservatives winning slightly more seats than Labour:
In which case, it will all come down to who can do a deal with who.
Otherwise, the party with the most seats will look to form a minority government with support on a case-by-case basis from the SNP and/or the Lib Dems and others.
With that kind of instability, the prospect of the parties having to do it all again next year, or even sooner, cannot be ruled out.
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all kids should be taught a second language from primary school. we should all be fluent in different languages, Irish should also be taught the same way foreign languages are taught in order people can speak it.
An utterly pointless language for Irish people to learn. If we lived in Japan, or Korea where the potential for migrating to China for employment was a little more likely – then I’d consider it. But to just throw it out in an arbitrary manner as a language we should learn is stupid.
We live in Europe – So a European language is far more useful like French, German, Spanish – or even one of the Nordic languages. The Irish language is far more useful to me than Chinese ever will be. I use it daily – and have yet found a scenario or visualise a scenario where I’ll ever be required to utter one word of Chinese.
It’s actually strange that Spanish is not as prevalent in Irish schools as French or German. It’s a much more global language than either of the two.
Delusional. We should be learning some languages that enable us to deal with our main trading partners and we haven’t even managed that.
But more importantly, we should be teaching kids to write computer code from the age of 12. It would give us a much faster route to sustainable wealth than trading property in China.
We’ll be speaking German soon enough :P
Remember the 1980s when it was Japan that was going to take over the world?
I remember it well Tom!
Perhaps our students and Ireland would be better served learning what China did to change from a famine ravaged nation to the fastest growing economy. Then seeing what principles can be applied here.
http://www.thefreemanonline.org/columns/china-s-free-enterprise-experiment/
Very true Tom. I remember being in with IDA during that period and it was wall to wall waffle about Japanese this that and the other. If you didn’t own a futon at the time, sufficient for overnight guests naturally, you were really backward. Pathetic.
I have a few stories of my own on that subject but then I remember what a small country this is.
Good idea, people will be able to realize that Chinese are right up there with the Americans when it comes to being arrogant.
And this is because the eminent developer Treasury Holdings says we should do it? Worked out well the last time they said we should do something didn’t it?! Let’s reflect for a moment on Battersea Power station as an example of something we now all own due to Treasury’s ‘great advice’. Johnny Ronan my arse.
When you consider the Chinese use of intonation to differentiate meaning of words (completely alien for any native European language speaker), and the inaccesible script(doubles the difficulty), you’d learn at least 2 European languages fairly fluently by the time you’d get a handle on basic,error-strewn Chinese. Avoid it unless you plan to live there!
Chinese should definitely be an option on curriculum for students. I imagine we will be looking to supply many services to the Chinese over the next few decades
As mentioned above, first step is to get people learning European languages at primary level. It’s well established that knowing more languages makes each extra language easier. If we equip people with European languages first then they’ll be more capable at picking up Chinese.
I’d also highlight that the Chinese are putting huge emphasis on learning English. Maybe we’ll just let them do the talking instead :D
Enda is right when he says how long it takes to learn Chinese. We can’t even get people fluent in Irish at second level. They should at least set a Leaving Cert paper in Chinese and then let people who want to take it up learn it. It’s not something that needs to be pushed into schools.
You already can do a Leaving Cert paper in Chinese, as well as Spanish, French, German, Russian, Japanese, Arabic, Hebrew, Latin, Greek….
Brian, you say you can do a Leaving Cert paper in Chinese? Tell me more…
Maybe the reason we can’t get people fluent in Irish at second level is because people don’t really want to do it – how many doors does it open? We are told to learn it but don’t hear it spoken in Ireland – at least learning french or german opens up possibilities and thoughts of a wider world, all this focus on Irish is insular.
It would certainly help if you want to order a take away.
Chinese? Why not? After all, it’s ideal for business for our future kids…….
Why not learn the language of the world’s largest tyranny? Makes perfect sense in a world increasingly viewing ordinary people as slaves of government and global corporations. Maybe throw in whatever North Korea has to offer as well. Have proponents any idea of just how many people in China do not have a vote? Seeing as most of the Irish haven’t even mastered the ‘first national language’, learning Mandarin, or even Cantonese if you like Hong Kong, should be a doddle. The fact that such proposals can emerge from the global Irish blatherfest unchallenged shows just how tenuous a grasp the Irish have of democracy.
Ah, I wish had a cent for every time someone used the term ‘democracy’ for a self righteous and badly laid out argument….
We already know the language of the worlds largest tyranny .. The USA
i thought latin was the language of the catholic church
In the UK they are going to introduce a foreign language at five years of age – imagine the advantage we would all have now if we had all been so lucky.
Quite a lot of Chinese factories are using robots( pick and place robots) like the ones used in intel. One factory has 110,000 robots for electronics (iPhone and HP laptops) as they consider labour cost too high for production line staff. Average wage now in china for industrial worker 60Euro per week, and they consider this too much – so whoever thinks that there will be jobs in china think again. They prefer robots rather than people as robots are much more efficient. Souls we learn Chinese – it’s better than Irish. Any other European language would be better than Irish and if possible 2 European languages would be great.
"It’s terrible about the poor people in china?"
"What poor people? Martin."
"The Chinese."
English is a dialect of German Dermot.
When you speak English you speak German.
I thought it was French ??? Maybe I’m wrong
To Pete Gibson: though English has its origins from Germanic and Latin roots it’s totally incorrect to say it’s a ‘dialect’ of German.
Ah the Chinese,a great bunch of lads
Let’s recall Micheal Martin’s ‘strategic’ analysis of China’s importance.
http://youtu.be/6x5Rcc17eb8
As part of the Irish Diaspora (sorry, I love that word) I have a long association with China and I spend a significant part of each year there. At 57, I have been learning and enjoying learning Mandarin for 10 years. Admittedly, my son, who has been learning Mandarin for just 4 years, is far more fluent than me, which just goes to prove that maybe Enda and I are a little old : ) Mandarin, I believe, is an essential language of the future and not as complex or as useless as Eurocentrics imagine. In my opinion, clever countries that embrace this amazing language will have a huge economic edge. I thought that Ireland’s ‘Global Economic Forum’ was all about getting Ireland out of an economic rut? How does burying your head in the cultural sand help? Please don’t let ignorance, prejudice and fear get in the way of enjoying one of the oldest and most exciting languages in the world. For those of you worried about the writing system of China, Pinyin is their romanised version which is very useful for learners. Introduce Mandarin in Primary schools in Ireland and Ireland’s future will be impressive. Already China has a tremendous love of all things Irish – let’s build on that.
Ài’ěrlán shì yīgè wěidà de guójiā/爱尔兰是一个伟大的国家/Ireland is a great country
- let’s keep it that way by keeping ahead of the game!
Glad I will be dead before they dominate beside numbers of people I can’t think what these people have to offer.
‘these people’? Jobs, investment, possibly a sense of pride in their country not based on boozed up romantic notions of grandeur, and victimhood?
well said Donncha
the fact that so many people think there is a language called "chinese" shows how eurocentric our education system is.
It is good to learn Mandarin, because China has now the second biggest economy in the world today . However children should be learning Latin and Ancient Greek too. The Greeks and the Romans made Europe. Thee-quarters of English is made up of Greek and Latin, over half from Latin alone. All the scientific words are either Greek or Latin. Latin gave us Portuguese, Spanish, Romanch (4th official language of Switzerland), French, Italian and Romanian, not to mention all the minority language like Catalan and Provencal. Through a business network I met an American man who is teaching Latin to Chinese young men and women in Beijing between the ages of 15-35. They are learning Latin because they feel it gives them gravitas when dealing with Europeans as they know that European culture originated from the Greeks and Romans
I have a relative working in China. He doesn’t use Mandarin. The business language of China is English. That is what he uses.
If the premise is that we want lots of money, and that there can never be enough of it; and if we believe it is in our interests as a nation to become more and more beholden to a country with an appaling human rights record then I say why not? In for a penny in for a yuan.
Keep it simple. Let the Chinese learn English so they can trade with us!
Should teach economics as no economist saw the financial crash coming or when banks were audited they saw nothing wrong.?
What a ridiculous suggestion. The argument behind it, that China is becoming the driving force of the global economy, is extremely shaky. There are strong indications that the Chinese economy is in the same kind of unsustainable bubble as the USA was prior to the crash.
Secondly, even if their bubble does not burst and they do become the world’s largest consumer economy, it is still unlikely that Ireland will be doing a significant amount of trading with them rather than our European neighbours, whose languages we already struggle to master.
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