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D-Day as millions of Americans went to the polls to choose their next president after one of the most fascinating, disturbing and bad-tempered election campaigns in US history.
Will we be calling Donald Trump POTUS in January? Or shall the people return Hillary Clinton to the White House – but in a very different role from when she was there last?
Join in the conversation in the comments section, on Twitter @thejournal_ie or by email tips@thejournal.ie
UPDATE 23:00 As the polls are closing, we have started a new liveblog to track the election results as they flood in. Join us over here.
A President Trump might find more common cause with pro-labour union, anti-war Democrats than members of his own party on trade and on the potential use of military force. The coalitions he would have to assemble to advance his agenda would put the “politics can make for strange bedfellows” maxim to the ultimate test.
“He could bypass the Congress and use the president’s executive authority in certain areas, such as trade, immigration and the environment. Observers have warily noted that he would have the power to impose tariffs, to order more deportations and to roll back environmental protections.
And some fret openly about someone with a volcanic temper like Donald Trump having access to the nuclear codes. The world can only hope and pray that there is no real cause for worry on this final point.
“And the robust legislative and judicial branches of government in the US, often lamented because they ensure that change happens at glacial pace, would be a powerful check on President Trump’s more malignant impulses.”
It’s going to be a long day (and night) for the candidates and for those waiting on a result.
Here are some of the key times (Irish) to set alarms for. All come with huge caveats of ‘we really don’t know exactly what will happen and when’ (see Brexit):
11pm: The first polls close.
Between midnight and 1am: Voting stops in the swing states of Florida, Ohio, North Carolina
1am: Networks in the US will begin calling results and we’ll get initial indications of who will be victorious (unless it’s really, really close)
3am: This will be the earliest time (probably) that a winner will be called by the networks (CNN, ABC, CBS etc).
Which we are grateful for, because it gives us reason to post this from Radio Kerry. (If you’ve never listened to it, please do so now. It will make your day, regardless of what happens in America).
Polls in this unpredictable political world are not what they once were. Trying to ascertain a true picture of what 300 million individuals are going to do on any given day is a daunting task.
As I sat ready to take over TheJournal.ie‘s liveblog for the Brexit count, the late-night reporters were leaving the office.
“Let us know if you need anything.”
“Should be pretty straight forward….”
All the thinking that day was that the Remain camp had done enough and even Nigel Farrage was offering quasi-concessions throughout the day.
This is, obviously, a whole different beast as maths can be a lot more reliable when looking at the electoral college… BUT, there are still a lot of things that are impossible to know (as Larry Donnelly outlined in a recent piece for TheJournal.ie).
That small percentage chance for a shock is still there.
Orla Ryan is going to take over now to take you through some more of the afternoon.
I’ll leave you with this image of 99-year-old Minerva Turpin….
I wanted to be first at my polling place, but 99-year-old Minerva Turpin beat me to it. Looks like I need to get used to being number two! pic.twitter.com/9YvWOjuKUe
In case you were in any doubt about what people are talking about online, nine of the 10 trending topics on Twitter in the US relate to the election:
The other one is Prince Harry, on foot of a statement from the British Royal family asking for the media to respect the privacy of his girlfriend Meghan Markle.
The women, who were topless, are not fans of Trump.
8 Nov 2016
3:20PM
Rosemary Hennigan, who has previously written for TheJournal.ie, is doing some polling monitoring in the US today.
She’s currently at the University of Pennsylvania.
Here’s what she told us from there: “I’m not starting my monitoring shift until 3.15am our time (so 8.15am Irish time), but reports from people I know at the polling stations for the morning shift are that the turnout in west Philly, which is predominantly African American, is strongly pro-Hillary, and it’s the same in the Latino north Philly, which is no surprise whatsoever. No incidents so far.”
Looking at the bigger picture, FiveThirtyEight has this interesting insight about media coverage for both candidates:
According to monthly data provided by MediaQuant, a company that quantifies media mentions, Trump got $1.01 billion (about €905 million) worth of coverage in September and October, compared with $940 million (about €850 million) for Clinton.
That’s consistent with an earlier report from the firm, which showed that once Trump was sharing the spotlight with just one rival instead of his many Republican primary challengers, he stopped getting the lion’s share.
With long queues in many places, and the most divisive election campaign in recent times, here is what some people are doing to de-stress after voting:
On what could be a very historic day, people have been paying their respects at the grave of Susan B Anthony, an activist who campaigned for women to get the right to vote:
8 Nov 2016
4:12PM
That’s it from me this afternoon, thanks for your company. I’ll hand you back to Sinéad O’Carroll.
Andy McLevey, head of dealing at stockbroker Interactive Investor, says:
Having had their fingers burnt in the aftermath of the UK EU referendum, it is of little surprise many have paused for breath, as despite polls signalling a Hillary Clinton victory seems likely, it is still too close to call and we may see some jitters as the day progresses.
Our resident Factchecker Dan MacGuill is in Philadelphia and has this mini-analysis for us.
“So the reports from Philadelphia appear to be that turnout is exceedingly high in the city, which definitely favours Clinton, and appears to be a bit slack in the suburbs, which is evenly balanced between Trump and Clinton.
“However, the real question is whether, overall, the turnout – particularly among blacks and Latinos – in Philadelphia, will approach the historically high levels seen for Obama in 2008 and 2012, which will go a long way to determining whether it can outweigh the very strong support for Trump in the massive swathe of Pennsylvania in between Philly and Pittsburgh.”
“Clinton is up by a few points in Pennsylvania, though, according to FiveThirtyEight, Clinton has a 77% chance of winning the state’s 20 electoral votes.”
The Associated Press has been looking at some international reaction to the election thus far.
Germany
Chancellor Angela Merkel says a victory for Clinton would be a step toward gender balance among world leaders.
Michael Sohn / PA Wire
Michael Sohn / PA Wire / PA Wire
Merkel says she’s awaiting the election result “with suspense”, while declining to comment directly on Clinton or Trump.
But asked about the possibility of a woman winning the White House, she said:
“Then we’d come a little bit closer to a balance of women and men in leading positions.”
Germany’s first female leader was speaking alongside Erna Solberg, Norway’s second female prime minister. Solberg said it “may be inspiring for many young women to see politics not just as something that belongs to men”.
But she added:
There isn’t some kind of global girlfriends network that wants to rule the world.
Meanwhile, Germany’s foreign minister says the bitter US election campaign will leave a “difficult legacy” for the next president because it has deepened the country’s divisions.
Frank-Walter Steinmeier says both Germans and many Americans “are glad that this special election campaign is coming to an end”.
He says the campaign “has left a more or less divided country” and it will be difficult for the incoming president to bridge the differences.
Argentina
Foreign Minister Susana Malcorra says a win for Trump would stall recent moves to improve relations between the countries.
Malcorra told an Argentine television channel that the conservative government of President Maurico Macri had opened a new phase of cooperation and trade with Washington after years of strained relations.
But she said that there might be a “big stop” in this process if Trump wins, and “depending on the results, there might be big changes” in US-Argentine relations.
The Argentine foreign minister said the “more closed, isolationist and xenophobic” model represented by the Republican candidate would have a major impact on the world and relations with Latin America.
8 Nov 2016
6:48PM
Meanwhile, there was a mock poll held in the ancestral home of Barack Obama. AP reports:
“It was held in Nyangoma-Kogelo, the birthplace of Obama’s father. Kenyan comedian Laurence Oyange was an organiser. He says it’s a way Kenyans can connect to America.
Oyange said the poll was boycotted by Malik Obama, the president’s half-brother who has said he supports Trump.
There were 105 voters and 78% of them favored Clinton. Eleven percent went for Donald Trump. Other ballots were spoiled or disqualified.
Oyange says the community also held mock US elections during Obama’s elections.”
Hi - Susan Daly here with you for another few hours – polling will begin to close from 11pm our time.
In the meantime, says this resident of South Philadelphia, YES WE ARE VOTING AND NO, YOU DON’T NEED TO KNOCK.
Can you imagine?
Dan Mac Guill
Dan Mac Guill
8 Nov 2016
7:55PM
Is this a sign for what is to come should Trump not prevail?
Reuters is reporting that Trump is already planning to sue Nevada – he has filed a suit saying that election officials at Clark County allowed voters to join the line “at a polling location at a Latino market” after 8pm. The law in Nevada state says those who are in line at 8pm, as polls close, can cast their vote.
The Daily News Bin is drawing the conclusion that Trump thinks Nevada is already lost to him.
The clear upshot here is that Trump wouldn’t be filing this suit so early unless he’s concluded that he’s basically lost the state.
Reminder: Trump said in the final presidential debate that he couldn’t promise that he would accept the election result, whatever the outcome. “I’ll keep you in suspense.”
There are still two and a half hours to go before the very first polls close in the US. Even so, people are DONE with talking about how they are going to vote. D.O.N.E. you hear?
This vignette comes from Conor in Virginia:
8 Nov 2016
8:43PM
Just to return to that Trump challenge to Nevada state. A judge has already thrown it out saying, “I am not going to issue any order. I’m not going to do it.”
What is turnout looking like in this most heated of US presidential votes in living memory?
Some early voting data released from Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and the contentious (for Trump, anyway) Nevada is showing a large increase in turnout from Latin-American voters, who traditionally vote Democrat. The New York Times is saying that one-sixth of early votes cast in Florida were from Hispanic voters, an increase of 75% on 2012.
We’re hearing from west Philly that there’s a “very slow trickle” of voters while in Virginia, “Modest lines outside Rockbridge County VA polling station with three and a half hours left [it closes at 7pm local time]“:
No-one, especially not the big US networks, are willing to call it this early but it should get heavier as the polling stations get closer to shutting up shop.
For the record, the turnout in a US presidential election hit its highest level since 1968 when Obama was voted into office in 2008 – it was 57.1%. That dropped to 54.9% for his re-election in 2012.
Our resident FactChecker Dan Mac Guill has been down at the Trump and Clinton offices in Philadelphia to check the temperature of the hardworking campaign staff there.
Here's how close the Trump and Clinton offices are on South St in Philadelphia pic.twitter.com/g6pOn27tt5
“On South Street in Philadelphia, the Clinton and Trump field offices are separated by less than 50 yards. Inside the Trump office, four or five men sit at desks, a couple of them making phone calls.
Dan Mac Guill
Dan Mac Guill
“One volunteer, named Jerome, steps outside to answer questions. He’s immediately very keen to talk at length about his Irish heritage, but demurs when asked how he feels the day is going for the Trump campaign in the city and in Pennsylvania. ‘Oh I don’t know.’
“He starts a digression, comparing Clinton’s “big money” campaign with that of his preferred candidate. When he’s asked for his sense of how things are going at the polling stations, he breaks off: ‘No, this isn’t even fun.’ He’s in no rush to answer questions about Election Day, and if he’s going to be hurried, he says, ‘then I won’t participate’, and he goes back inside.
“In the Clinton staging office, less than a minute’s walk away, there are at least 30 volunteers milling about, giving or getting instructions. There are signs all over the walls, including a three-step flow chart on effective canvassing.
Dan Mac Guill
Dan Mac Guill
“Elizabeth Weinbloom, a volunteer trainer, says 400 people came through the door on Saturday, offering their time as part of the ‘get out to vote’ operation. She expects the number for today to be even greater. On Saturday, canvassers organised and dispatched through this office alone, knocked on an estimated 15,000 doors.
Dan Mac Guill
Dan Mac Guill
“‘There’s a lot of people who think of election day as the time to help out, and not about the previous six months…Where were you four weeks ago?!’”
“She laughs, and then quickly adds, ‘But we’re very glad they’re here today’.”
At the Trump field office in Philadelphia Dan Mac Guill
Dan Mac Guill
At the Clinton field office in Philadelphia Dan Mac Guill
Dan Mac Guill
As we reported earlier, Clinton and Trump will be celebrating (or mourning) the election results just two miles apart in Manhattan. Clinton will be at the Javits Center and Trump has booked the New York Hilton Midtown.
For now though, Trump is watching the results come in at his eponymous skyscraper, also in Midtown.
I will be watching the election results from Trump Tower in Manhattan with my family and friends. Very exciting!
On a serious note, there are dump trucks filled with sand apparently guarding a sealed-off Trump Tower – to prevent potential attacks.
On a less serious note, we are cringing at this report from Yahoo News that a campaign volunteer for the Clinton campaign got an earful when she rang a prominent Trump supporter, Ohio pastor Darrell Scott, as he sat in Trump Tower. Awkward.
8 Nov 2016
10:03PM
Let’s just suppose that Donald Trump becomes the 45th President of the United States.
And over on our sister business site, Fora.ie, there’s a take from investment consultant Vincent McCarthy on what a Trump win would mean for business abroad – and here.
Rosemary Hennigan, originally from Dublin but monitoring polling in West Philadelphia, is telling us of some tension at a polling station on North 39th Street. Trump and Clinton poll watchers argued over whether Clinton people were too close to the polling station (the legal requirement is to be 10 feet or more from the room where voting is taking place). While Trump watchers were making that allegation, Clinton watchers were alleging that Trump people were taking pictures of them.
Basically, there is a lot of suspicion around in these final few tense hours.
Let’s relieve the tension with this image sent in by Moia in Boston of the bipartisan election-themed cookies in her office:
In less sweet news for Donald Trump, we were previously told that the first Bush president, George H.W., would not be voting for the Republican candidate.
Apparently, the second Bush president, George W., didn’t cast his ballot for Trump either.
NEWS: George W. & Laura Bush did not vote for Trump. They left the presidential line empty & cast votes for downballot GOP candidates
Cliodhna Russell and Christina Finn are at the US Embassy’s election count night in the Guinness Storehouse right now, up to their oxters in ice sculptures and giant hot dogs. #MakeAmericanSnacksGreatAgain
Are you at a US election night party right now? Send us your pics to tips@thejournal.ie or tweet at us @thejournal_ie
And do you have a US Ambassador to Ireland at yours?
This is Kevin O’Malley right now at the Storehouse:
Cliodhna Russell
Cliodhna Russell
And back to the food to keep the stomachs lined for the night:
Cliodhna Russell
Cliodhna Russell
8 Nov 2016
10:47PM
The parties are warming up and the first exit polls are close to being revealed, so we’re going to sign off on your voting day liveblog and bring you over to the excitement of election night count.
Click here now and fingers crossed we will have a victor for you in the early hours. Stay with us.
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@The Boogeyman: Two wimmen from the Femem outfit were arrested with their diddies hanging out where trump was due to vote, is that what D day stands for ? Anyway Donald is a pussy man so they were wasting their time
@Beachmaster:
I have a suspicion that, like myself, you are tuned in to LIveLeak simultaneously.
it’s nice to browse & comment on an unbiased international forum, isn’t it…(compared to the joke that is the Journal.ie.)
Trump is hammering Clinton by all accounts.
There is no right wing, left wing delineation here. We have two capitalist parties. Trump could quite easily be running as a democrat if they would have him. Lol.
Former President. Once you are a President in the US, you are always referred to as one even when you step down. Calling him First Man would be a sign of disrespect over there as he was the 42nd President.
Very interesting to see last night Clinton had her biggest rally so far. Obamas, Bill, Bon Jovi and Bruce Springsteen all in attendance. Trump alone has had much bigger crowds turn out for him. So was Clintons crowd just there to see the Boss for free ?
Isn’t Hillary is almost sure to end up in a nuclear stand off with Putin? That’s general knowledge right? Why is that guys opinion piece saying people are worried about Trump having his finger the button? Not on either side but that is a bizarre point to make.
I’ve seen stuff like this the whole way through, it’s the very definition of propaganda. No matter what your politics are, it’s disturbing. One of them is going to be elected tomorrow, then what?
Hillary’s been calling for war with Russia for ages now. She’s unhinged. I never understood how dictators get into positions of power. Now I see how it works.
@ Dave – A reporter, who got into a very public spat with Trump, said he knows someone who said Trump said that.. FTFY
@ Philip – You’d rather a Nuclear war than have a relationship with Russia? Um, okay then. Putin doesn’t want to go to war with the West, but he can’t possibly sit back while the US moves closer and closer to him either. Puppet? He asked at a press conference that the western media properly investigate and report on what the U.S. G’ment is up to in relation to him/nukes, that the public has a right to know they’re being fed propaganda.
Yes Dave but context. That guy and Trump got into the most pathetic, childish spat with each other and then he said that. That’s like me popping over to Hannity to see what he’s saying about Clinton and taking it as gospel. Just doesn’t work.
@ Jimmy – You do realise that there isn’t a video of her literally saying those exact words. If you’re genuinely interested, have a look at her foreign policy regarding Russia, then have a look to see who is actually being aggressive with nukes in Europe, then have a look at Putin stance on stoping the arms war before it goes to the point of no return.
Then hopefully you won’t need to come to the journal comments, asking for links to find out what could potentially be happening in your world over the next few years.
So Linda has Hillary been in power already, or what? The policies you claim as hers were started by Bush and continued by Obama. She may well continue with this policy, but to say she is in favour of war with Russia is plain stupid
Linda, you either have it or you don’t, he’s asking you to back up a claim you made. Convince him or don’t but don’t get pi$$y with him because you don’t want to prove yourself right.
@ jimmy – Soooo you didn’t even get as far as looking up her election promises re: Russia. Where and who in Europe has nukes are still a mystery to you and you still don’t know what Putin stance is on the arms race. Yes, your statement that her possibly starting a war with Russia is plain stupid is obviously a well educated and informed opinion.
@ Dave – Have what? Do you want me to write an essay for him? Understanding what could potentially happen isn’t a two links and a ten minute read ffs!
Linda I know where the nukes are, I know the americans/NATO are edging closer to Russia and strategic places therein, I know of Putins response and all of what’s happening including what she has said and none of it adds up to her actually wanting to go to war with Russia. This American/NATO policy will continue no matter who wins the presidency, she is no more likely to go to war with Russia than any other president. Trump on the other hand, doesn’t even seem to realise the implications of using nuclear weapons.
@Tricia Golden: You must have been very disappointed in the 8 years since Obamas election, what did he really achieve? The country is more divisive than ever, and the polarization that was evident in this election campaign is an obvious symptom, ObamaCare is causing more difficulties than benefits.
@Nick Drake: The only ones that divided the country was the Republican party with their opposition to whatever Obama brought to Congress from his very first day in Office,easy to find online if you tried.Of course him being a black person didn’t go down too well with some folk over there,too.. Obamacare has indeed turned out bad,but at least he tried to bring in a huge number of poor people to get healthcare..What will the Republican party change it with ?
He achieved in making a profit on the bank & auto bailout..
He achieved by turning the American economy around
Had you asked me a year ago what I would be doing right now, I never would have said that I would be sitting here hoping that Trump wins. Had Bernie been up against him instead of Hillary, I would be on the different side.
No matter what happens in this election the political classes have to take note. A social revolution is in train. The extremes of left and right are excluding middle ground people. No political party in this country represents me.
“The bots exaggerated support for the Republican, it suggests, but Trump would still have won a higher number of supportive tweets even if they had not.”
@Jason Culligan: You think I didn’t read it? Seriously!?
The point I was making was that it’s really not sensible to try and determine who’s going to win by “retweets” when you KNOW that there is manipulation going on!
I sorta compare Hillary to Griselda Blanco when I see how this race pans out. Will do anything and take out anyone to get to the top and will be even more of a bad ass when she gets elected.
@Tony Ornery G: The scary thing is Trump has millions of supporters and if he wants to he can lead the movement for two years, endorse a few candidates in the mid terms and run again in 4 years, as an independent, He will not win in 2020 either but what he can do is prevent anybody getting 270 electoral collage votes and the election goes to the House of Representatives to decide, given in all likelyhood it will be under Republican control they can elect a jesus loving, woman hating homophobe that makes either of the two candidates here look like Lincon.
He could Phil, but he has said if he’s not elected he will just walk away. That’s not to say he will, of course, and yes American politics and general public is fractured down the muddle in a dangerous way and will be for years to come, and hillary is not he one to fix it.
CNN reporting two clerks in Broward county have been fired for “not working to the level of integrity they were trained to”. That tells me fraud. The county has a 2-1 Dem advantage in voter ID and the GOP accused the Dems if opening postal ballots illegally a few days ago.
One democrat and one republican having a fight apparently. It was also Breitbart that broke the story. It’s hilarious that you spun it further that Breitbart
I don’t like Trump. There seems to be no coherence to his policies. He is boorish, sure. But it is his inarticulacy and apparent stupidity that bothers me more. That being said, if you are British and a pragmatist you will be hoping for Trump to win.
Democrat Blueprint for winning the White House.
‘Import 40 million Latinos, hire them as maids, gardeners, lawn mowers, cleaners, pool boys (even when you don’t have a swimming pool – why not? they cost nothing) give them all the vote and point them in the direction of the nearest Democrat convention…all the while hiding behind a facade of humanitarian idealism and altruism.
The liberal generation will swallow it hook. line and sinker.
Guaranteed success.
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With your acceptance, your precise location (within a radius of less than 500 metres) may be used in support of the purposes explained in this notice.
Actively scan device characteristics for identification 27 partners can use this special feature
With your acceptance, certain characteristics specific to your device might be requested and used to distinguish it from other devices (such as the installed fonts or plugins, the resolution of your screen) in support of the purposes explained in this notice.
Ensure security, prevent and detect fraud, and fix errors 89 partners can use this special purpose
Always Active
Your data can be used to monitor for and prevent unusual and possibly fraudulent activity (for example, regarding advertising, ad clicks by bots), and ensure systems and processes work properly and securely. It can also be used to correct any problems you, the publisher or the advertiser may encounter in the delivery of content and ads and in your interaction with them.
Deliver and present advertising and content 96 partners can use this special purpose
Always Active
Certain information (like an IP address or device capabilities) is used to ensure the technical compatibility of the content or advertising, and to facilitate the transmission of the content or ad to your device.
Match and combine data from other data sources 71 partners can use this feature
Always Active
Information about your activity on this service may be matched and combined with other information relating to you and originating from various sources (for instance your activity on a separate online service, your use of a loyalty card in-store, or your answers to a survey), in support of the purposes explained in this notice.
Link different devices 52 partners can use this feature
Always Active
In support of the purposes explained in this notice, your device might be considered as likely linked to other devices that belong to you or your household (for instance because you are logged in to the same service on both your phone and your computer, or because you may use the same Internet connection on both devices).
Identify devices based on information transmitted automatically 86 partners can use this feature
Always Active
Your device might be distinguished from other devices based on information it automatically sends when accessing the Internet (for instance, the IP address of your Internet connection or the type of browser you are using) in support of the purposes exposed in this notice.
Save and communicate privacy choices 66 partners can use this special purpose
Always Active
The choices you make regarding the purposes and entities listed in this notice are saved and made available to those entities in the form of digital signals (such as a string of characters). This is necessary in order to enable both this service and those entities to respect such choices.
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