Live BlogPOLLS HAVE CLOSED in almost all states in the US in one of the most contentious and closely fought presidential elections in modern history.
Results have been called in over half of the states to date - Donald Trump currently has 220 Electoral College votes and Kamala Harris has 179. Either needs to reach 270 votes out of the 538 on offer.
None of the seven swing states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – have been called yet.
Electoral college votes
Total to win: 270
Yet to be declared: 139
Kamala Harris: 179
Donald Trump: 220
Stay with us and we’ll keep you up to date with all the latest news throughout the night.
Updates by Órla Ryan
The first of the seven swing states – North Carolina – has been called: Trump has won it.
Trump now has 220 Electoral College votes, while Harris has 179. View the latest updates from every state on our map here.
Trump and Harris supporters are watching the results roll in…
As expected, Bernie Sanders (independent) has been re-elected to the Senate in Vermont.
BREAKING: Bernie Sanders wins re-election in Vermont Senate race, NBC News projects. pic.twitter.com/myyra3aEcs
— MSNBC (@MSNBC) November 6, 2024
Despite the optimism of some Democrats, the New York Times needle is giving Donald Trump an 88% chance of winning the election.
As well as forecasting that Trump is likely to win the Electoral College, the needle is estimating that he will also win the popular vote (i.e. a majority of the total number of votes cast across the country).
Our Political Correspondent Jane Matthews is at the Democrats Abroad event in Dublin’s Arlington Hotel, where hundreds of Americans have gathered in the bar for the night to watch the results come in.
As of 2am, the mood was positive in the bar as attendees – fuelled on pizza – watched CNN and chatted over drinks.
Cheers erupted shortly after 1am as the projection was made that Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren’s senate seats were safe.
Speaking to The Journal, Democrats Abroad Secretary, Amy McGovern, described her mood as “confident”.
From Pennsylvania, the swing state won by Biden in 2020, McGovern said her sense is that there are more silent Democratic voters than projected.
“I’m from a county that is a swing county. I think people are saying they support Trump but secretly support Harris, they just don’t want people to know because they don’t want to go against the grain,” McGovern said.
McGovern is so opposed to Trump and what he stands for that she can’t even bring herself to say his name.
He’s a disgrace, he only cares about himself. It’s not about policy, it’s ‘I, I, I’ with him.
“I think we need a woman, desperately. Especially on the world stage, I think it would show that we are moving forwards, not backwards.
“We’ve been going backwards recently but I’m trying to be hopeful that we can move forward towards a better and more fair and equitable future.”
Another attendee, Randy, who only wanted his first name published, told The Journal that he expects Harris to win “by a landslide”.
“I might be wrong, but I’d be very disappointed if I was. I view Trump being elected as the end of democracy, not just for America but largely for the world.”
Trump is edging ahead with 198 Electoral College votes, while Harris is on 112. Some 228 votes are yet to be declared.
It looks as though Trump has won Iowa.
It’s a typically Republican state but a recent poll indicated a last-minute increase in support for Harris – something attributed to anger over the state banning abortions after six weeks of pregnancy, before many women know they are pregnant.
Decision Desk HQ projects Donald J. Trump wins the Presidential election in Iowa.#DecisionMade: 10:08 PM EDT
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 6, 2024
Follow live results here:https://t.co/DjYs6JccIO pic.twitter.com/7z17okhKF5
The New York Times election needle is currently giving Donald Trump a 69% chance of victory.
Meanwhile in Delaware, NBC has predicted that a transgender woman will be elected to the US Congress for the first time ever.
Democrat Sarah McBride is in the lead with a projected 57.7%, while her Republican opponent John Whalen is on 42.3%.
An interesting update from Wisconsin, where there is more good news for the Trump campaign:
NBC exit poll shows Trump has doubled his support among black voters in Wisconsin.
— Lewis Goodall (@lewis_goodall) November 6, 2024
Results in twenty-six states have now been called, with Trump on 177 Electoral College votes and Harris on 99.
Either candidate needs to get to 270 to be elected president.
There are no big surprises to date, with states voting along the usual party lines.
My colleague Jane Matthews has another update on the Palestinian solidarity protest held outside the Guinness Storehouse.
Earlier tonight, a watch party organised by Democrats Abroad was disrupted when a small group of pro-Palestine supporters crashed the event and blocked the main screen that was streaming CNN.
Gardaí were called and the demonstrators, who carried a Palestine flag and a horn speaker, were removed after approximately 10 minutes but not before they set off a stink bomb.
Attendees and staff reported an altercation between some attendees and protesters, with one organiser describing attendees’ reaction to the disturbance as “extremely annoyed”.
One attendee told The Journal that he was spat on and witnessed someone “being put in a headlock”. He said he has attended pro-Palestine protests himself and respects why the demonstrators were protesting tonight but believes “there is a limit”.
Another update from Rónán Duffy:
Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida has said that statewide referendums on abortion and marijuana have both been defeated.
With polls now closed in Florida —
— Ron DeSantis (@GovRonDeSantis) November 6, 2024
Amendment 3 has failed.
Amendment 4 has failed.
Amendment 4 would have enshrined a right to abortion into the state’s constitution, restoring the right to terminate pregnancies until the point of viability.
Since May, Florida has enforced a ban on abortions after six weeks – before many women even know they are pregnant.
The initiative faced a steep challenge, requiring 60% approval to pass, with estimates now indicating that it will fall short of that number.
Meanwhile, Amendment 3 would have legalised marijuana for recreational use. Donald Trump, a Florida resident, had indicated that he supported the vote to legalise marijuana, saying: “Whether people like it or not, this will happen.”
Several senators, congressional members and governors have been elected in various states.
Here are some of the key results so far (the full list of candidates elected can be read here):
Trump is also encouraging people to stay and vote, noting that polling hours have been extended in certain areas due to the high level of demand.
Pennsylvania - Cambria County polling hours have been EXTENDED to 10pm, and Laflin Borough polling hours have been EXTENDED to 9:30pm. STAY IN LINE AND VOTE! https://t.co/czQRkZmYUH
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 6, 2024
More on long queues outside polling centres:
Mairead Maguire writes: Some districts are reporting long lines at polling stations, with some people waiting up to six hours to cast their vote.
Harris seems to have had a plan in place to keep voters motivated in case this happened.
She called on famous allies including Jennifer Garner and Marc Cuban to hop on Facetime calls with tired voters.
Some of those queuing have ordered pizza to keep them satiated while they wait.
Celebrities and politicians have been urging voters to stay in line even if polling closes before they get to the front. The rules state that those already queueing still have a right to cast their vote even if the deadline has passed.
My colleague Christine Bohan has an important needle update:
It’s back! It’s fair to say that The New York Times’s needle, which estimates the outcome of the race in real time, has become one of the most well-known parts of presidential election night since 2016 (among the chronically online, at least).
There were questions about whether it would make an appearance tonight: tech workers at The New York Times who look after the needle, among other things, have been on strike since yesterday in a dispute over pay and conditions.
In the last few minutes, however, the needle went live on the NYT site. A note attached to the needle warns that it may not be able to be updated live over the course of the night due to the strike. “We will only publish a live version of the Needle if we are confident [the] systems are stable,” the note says.
So what does it actually say? Well, it’s still early, so the needle says it is a toss-up right now, with neither Trump nor Harris with a greater chance of winning.
However while it estimates that Harris will do better on the popular vote, it estimates that Trump will win the electoral college (and therefore the election). It’s all going to come down to Pennsylvania, unsurprisingly. Let’s see what happens.
Actor Paul Rudd is handing out bottles of water to people queuing up to vote in Pennsylvania.
You wouldn’t get that in Dublin West – then again, you wouldn’t have to wait for hours to vote.
Paul Rudd has been giving out water bottles to those in line on Election Day at Temple University in Pennsylvania. pic.twitter.com/qdkZ8qi5Pt
— DiscussingFilm (@DiscussingFilm) November 5, 2024
Some states famously have *very* long queues. Singer Selena Gomez earlier encouraged people to tough out the lines and not leave before voting.
My colleague Mairead Maguire has been watching Fox News. Here’s a rundown of what’s been discussed on the channel in the last hour, where a panel have shared their early thoughts.
Unsurprisingly, the dominance of reproductive rights – despite being named one of the single biggest issues for voters – was downplayed.
Conservative pundit Laura Ingraham said voters must choose between the status quo – the Biden administration’s “open borders” and a high cost of living – and Trump. She said however that Democrats have done a good job at “not making it about [Harris's] track record”, but rather about abortion.
The panel acknowledged that reproductive rights could have a major impact, especially in states that are also voting today on whether the right to abortion should be enshrined in their individual constitutions.
Former Democratic Congressman Harold Ford Jr said he’s interested to see how, as he put it, “that abortion thing” goes down in Florida, which has voted red in the last two presidential elections.
LIVE UPDATES: FOX News projects Trump to win Florida and 5 other states, Harris to win Illinois and 6 others https://t.co/Ey4wYVpw1o
— Fox News (@FoxNews) November 6, 2024
It’s early days, but Trump is currently leading in the district of Miami. The last time a Republican candidate won there was 1988.
On North Carolina, one of the seven swing states, Republican pundits voiced concern about the impact Hurricane Helene could have, as many of the usual voting stations were destroyed or made inaccessible.
However, between tented stations and power generators, voters are expected to be uninhibited. In fact, turnout could be higher than it was in 2020.
Fox News is always an interesting watch – even during ad breaks.
One ad for what appears to be a prayer app (like a religious Headspace?) shows the results of the election being announced on the radio. Before the winner is named, the man switches off the radio and goes to say a prayer with his phone, saying “Lord we trust in you … we give it all to you”.
Another ad boasts a free one-year subscription for Fox Nation (a streaming service for shows and movies that “celebrate America”) for US soldiers and veterans.
Thirteen states have now been called – seven for Trump and six for Harris.
He is currently on 95 Electoral College votes and she has 35, my colleague Rónán Duffy reports.
In terms of whether or not the US is ready for a female president, Lucas told The Journal:
“If you look at the importance of women’s rights and reproductive rights in this election – yeah, America is ready to have a female president… but there are some Americans who aren’t ready for it.”
Speaking about the possibility of a Harris presidency, Lucas noted that the current vice president has “distinguished herself from Biden in terms of her rhetoric” on Gaza and the need to protect civilians.
However, he is adopting a “wait and see” approach to whether or not she actually makes any changes.
I want to see if she backs up words with action.
Lucas said many people, perhaps correctly, assume not much would change in terms of US support for Israel under a Harris presidency.
“Would she cut or limit military aid to the Israelis? Would she come out for an unconditional ceasefire? I think the default position everybody assumes is no.”
Some voters, including in key swing states, are not voting for Harris because of her stance on Gaza.
During a trip to Atlanta in September, one Emory University student who would typically lean Democrat told The Journal he could not “bring” himself to vote for Harris because of the war in Gaza.
“She’s not listening to our beliefs,” he said at the time.
During our recent interview with Scott Lucas, Professor of American Studies at UCD’s Clinton Institute, he also spoke about what a Trump presidency could look like from an international affairs point of view.
He believes, if Trump is re-elected, “a lot of people are going to be sacrificed, I’m going to say that right out”.
Lucas continued: “What do I mean, people are going to be sacrificed? Ukraine’s going to be sacrificed. I have no doubt about that.”
He believes Trump will cut US aid to Ukraine and “effectively support the Russians in their invasion”.
In terms of the Middle East, Lucas said Trump is “not going to stop the war” and will “completely back [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu”.
Lucas believes Trump will also “be courted by the Saudis, by the UAE”, threaten to pull out of Nato, and attempt to break up the European Union.
“There are no rules of the game with Trump, and the international system runs on rules of the game.”
A number of senate elections are also taking place in certain states today. Jim Justice looks set to be elected to the West Virginia senate, flipping the seat.
NBC just called Jim Justice to win the West Virginia senate seat.
— Leigh Giangreco (@LeighGiangreco) November 6, 2024
Which means Baby Dog is going to Washington pic.twitter.com/BcinzyGD4y
More importantly, Babydog (who rose to fame at the Republican Convention in July) is going with him.
Some good news for Trump in Georgia, one of the key battleground states:
CNN Exit Poll:
— Greg Price (@greg_price11) November 6, 2024
A 20 point swing towards Trump among Independents in Georgia. pic.twitter.com/t7Bc9XPOSX
The state typically votes Republican but Joe Biden turned it blue in 2020 by just 12,000 votes – out of some five million votes cast.
There are vox pops-a plenty on TV tonight, but one man in particular stood out in the below segment on CNN.
a voter in North Carolina tells CNN he wasn't going to vote but did when his girlfriend told him if he didn't vote for Harris she would break up with him pic.twitter.com/otq5h3nB5R
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) November 6, 2024
He said he came out to vote because his girlfriend asked him to, adding that she was going to break up with him if he didn’t. In the end, he admitted he was joking and she said no such thing, but that he thought it would be funny to say it on TV.
She did ask him to vote though, because he intended to stay home and not vote for anybody. He waited for about two hours to mark his ballot for Harris/Walz.
In another vox pop, this time on MSNBC, a man in Arizona said he decided to vote for Trump after Harris didn’t go on The Joe Rogan Experience podcast.
a voter in Arizona told MSNBC that he was on the fence but decided to vote for Trump when Harris didn't go on the Joe Rogan podcast pic.twitter.com/4TkX7J6EcA
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) November 6, 2024
Only three states have been called so far – two for Trump and one for Harris.
Here is our state-by-state breakdown of the race to 270 Electoral College votes.
If you’re still confused about which swing states are in play, and how the Electoral College works, we’ve got you covered with this explainer.
Speaking to The Journal last week, Scott Lucas, Professor of American Studies at UCD’s Clinton Institute, said: “You can’t toss out any type of prediction, other than the fact this will be a knife-edge race.
“It’ll go all the way through the night and possibly for a few days after.”
As we reported earlier, a Palestinian solidarity protest is taking place outside a US election event in Dublin.
An election ‘watch party’ is being held by the US Embassy at the Guinness Storehouse in Dublin 8. Here is some footage from inside the event:
Meanwhile, inside the Storehouse US Ambassador to Ireland Claire Cronin has just made a (very short) speech.
— Jane Matthews (@janeematthews) November 5, 2024
Her only prediction for the night: Regardless of whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins tonight, US and Irish relations will remain strong. @thejournal_ie pic.twitter.com/AA8VjBkxCP
The Associated Press is already calling that Trump has won Kentucky and Indiana, while Harris has won Vermont.
BREAKING: Donald Trump wins Indiana. #APRaceCall at 7:00 p.m. EST. https://t.co/FjgpZFcJ4E
— AP Politics (@AP_Politics) November 6, 2024
BREAKING: Kamala Harris wins Vermont. #APRaceCall at 7:00 p.m. EST. https://t.co/FjgpZFcJ4E
— AP Politics (@AP_Politics) November 6, 2024
Here is when the first polls will close in the US:
7pm local time/midnight Irish time
8pm local time/1am Irish time
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