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US SECRETARY OF State Rex Tillerson says diplomacy has failed and military action against nuclear-armed North Korea is an “option on the table,” and President Donald Trump insists a long-range nuke from Pyongyang “won’t happen.”
While war with North Korea may be unlikely for now, Pentagon planners and private analysts have given deep thought to how US military intervention with the reclusive country would play out.
Hint: There are no easy options, and the risks are enormous.
Surgical vs. all-in
Preemptive military action against North Korea would mean the United States and its allies won’t wait until a North Korean nuclear ballistic missile is launched, even though dense defence networks could likely shoot one down.
So first question would be whether to go all in — a la Iraq — and push for regime change, or whether to limit intervention to surgical strikes on nuclear program targets.
Stratfor, a US private intelligence firm that recently published a paper looking at possible Pentagon options, said Washington does not want a long-term intervention in North Korea, meaning “levels of violence would be limited.”
A broader military campaign would risk full-scale war, and Pyongyang would inevitably be forewarned, making it more likely it would carry out its own preemptive strikes.
Bruce Klingner, who formerly worked for the CIA and now specializes in Korean and Japanese affairs for the Heritage Foundation think tank, warned that any preemptive allied strikes or missile shoot-downs should only occur in the event of an imminent North Korean attack.
War hardware
The United States has an “ironclad” alliance with South Korea and has stationed thousands of troops there since the end of the Korean War, with about 28,000 currently based in the South.
The two countries are also currently running joint military drills called the Foal Eagle exercises.
A strike on the North would likely come via US stealth bombers, which can penetrate deep into enemy territory without leaving a significant radar trail.
While North Korea has good air defences, these would be no match for stealth planes like the B-2 bomber, the F-22 fighter and, eventually, the F-35.
America also has ships and submarines in the region, so firing cruise missiles from unexpected locations is also an option.
What to strike
B-2 stealth bombers carrying Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs and other armaments could easily incapacitate North Korea’s known nuclear production sites and weapons storage facilities.
Stratfor says an initial wave of bombing could be followed up by a massive barrage of F-22 strikes and cruise missiles that would focus on wiping out North Korea’s weapons delivery vehicles.
Pyongyang has about 200 of the so-called Transporter Erector Launchers (TELs) dotted around the country.
But destroying Pyongyang’s obvious military targets does little to prevent North Korea delivering a nuclear device through other means — perhaps via a civilian fishing boat — that would be detonated by a suicide operative.
The North’s response
Leader Kim Jong-Un is well aware he has limited — but powerful — options when it comes to retaliation.
An all-out attack on South Korea, Japan and US military bases would most likely bring about a massive international response and hasten the end of his regime.
But even a limited response would be devastating.
North Korea has amassed artillery units along its border with South Korea.
The capital, Seoul, is only about 55 km away and some of the canons could rain shells onto the city of 10 million.
Even limited shelling and rocket fire would likely lead to mass casualties.
But that would end badly for the North, said Stratfor analyst Sim Tack, who co-authored the report.
It would put “the United States and its allies into a position where they have no choice but to come in and try and destroy the entire military capability of North Korea,” Tack told AFP.
Unknowns
Stratfor warns the US and its allies lack perfect intelligence on North Korea, so they would not be certain they had destroyed all nuclear devices and delivery vehicles.
“The longer the North Korean program evolves, the more this becomes a reality,” the Stratfor report states.
Realistically, absent the use of nuclear weapons or the invasion and occupation of North Korea, the United States and its allies are already at a point where they cannot guarantee the complete removal of the threat of a North Korean nuclear attack.
Another big unknown is China.
Beijing likes having North Korea as a buffer between itself and US-allied South Korea, but also has shown signs of impatience over North Korea’s continued nuclear testing.
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Tom, I wish you every success
Plantation Watch: Despite your protestations you are still tuning in to the “soap box”????
Anyhow Mr Curran deserve’s our full support as people like him who care for family members for life save you the taxpayer millions every year by bailing out the HSE & the state and Ireland is full of to the brim with care people like him who don’t get the recognition they deserve. As Mr.Curran represents the forgotten makes this a good vote!
Are you going to interview every candidate running in the Wicklow election or does just Tom great this free publicity ?
very true Emlyn. The ‘Journal’ – & the rest of the Irish media – will be pushing this ‘right to die’ issue, non stop.
Total propaganda.
you can always go to another website if you don’t like it you know!
It’s not as if you’re forced to read it at gunpoint or something.
You can go somewhere else for your news or you could just sit there and whinge.
Whichever you feel is more productive!!
Another question is how are we expected to see a decline in suicides if we are going to legislate to assist people to commit suicide?
there is a difference between drafting legislation and actually passing it you know?
He is going to draft legislation for the government to look at and perhaps debate.
The government is not legislating for assisted suicide!!
The journal is becoming little more than a soapbox for various leftoids and their causes.
Has that man not suffered enough without having to experience what goes on in a county council chamber?
Glad to see he’s running as an Independent.
Best of luck Tom! Good to see someone standing up for carers! I was for many years! Reckon we saved the state a lot! Now I can’t even sign credits as I’ve been ‘unemployed’ for so long so can’t even look after my pension rights!
Does this mean that every person who has ever suffered heartache from the loss of a loved one, have the right to become a political candidate. What qualifications do they have, a degree in politics NO, experience in Social Policy NO. Public relations Eh No. I appreciate the mans gone through a tough time. But so have a lot people. The Journal is now pushing this agenda, really are they going to give equal time to other candidates, I seriously doubt it. This is what’s wrong with bloody country, become a politician just because your father was or because you have been in the media. Fair and balanced journalism really????
Everybody has the right to try to become a political candidate.
Really, we barley have enough competent politicians currently representing us. Let’s get ex boxers and other unqualified people to represent us. Great idea. I must get it a go sometime in between making breakfast and dinner.
Incompetent.
Everybody has a right to run in elections. That is what our so called democracy is all about. What qualifications do most of the shower we have had in over the last 20 years, and ran this country down the drain, have? I include the current lot in this this who lived the good life in opposition while they watched the others destroy us ,without a whimper from them. Its really senior uncivil servants who run the show and politicians seem to cowtow to them. This lot had an option to be different and have failed miserably. Remember ” ITS Labours way and not Berlins way”–yeAH right!!! It is good that someone like Tom is running–at least he conducted his life latterly guided by passionately held beliefs and everyday struggles -not creaming off the taxpayer like most of those in the Dail.
To echo Nelly – can you point to a qualified representative in the Dail at present? How many of them did political science?
And if you don’t like him – you know what? You don’t have to vote for him. That’s kind of how the whole voting thing works.. He’s only choosing to run – lots of people run and don’t get elected you know..
That’s the problem, we don’t need more of the same nonsense. I am from Wicklow and I know very much about Toms struggle, the point is that he will change absolutely nothing. There are many people I know who have had people taken from them, whether it’s Sudden Adult Death, Suicide or whatever. The issue is, what have you got to offer and what are you going to change. This country needs, no deserves more than a media story representing us.
I take it you wouldn’t vote for him so..
Standing for election is a far cry from being elected – he needs votes for that. And each persons vote is their own. If the people of Wicklow choose him then that is their business.
Yes we have all lost people, sudden adult death is a million miles from dying with multiple sclerosis or any of the other excruciatingly painful way to die, and that’s not what this was about (sudden adult death – the clues in the name – it’s sudden, then it’s over). Suicide is usually undertaken by a person with the capacity to do so, and is also sudden. This mans wife had deteriorated to a point where even though she wanted to commit suicide she no longer could – she couldn’t even feed herself FFS.
The fact that you are even comparing these things shows you don’t really get the point of assisted suicide.
Shanti your comments represent nothing more than an absolute ignorance. The fact that you would say that SADs and Suicide are nothing compared to what his wife suffered. Well I lost a brother to SAD and friends to Suicide, now do you really think that because his wife suffered over a longer period of time that she suffered more. Go an educate yourself you silly ignoramus. I and my family live everyday with the fact our brother was snatched from our lives without any notice. And for your information when someone is dying slowly the grieving process is completely different as you are preparing your goodbyes. Now did we run out and want become independent politicians NO we grieved and raised money for SAD awareness. And your right my vote is my vote and I would not hand that over to someone out of pity or feeling sorry for them. Yes you can run and NO maybe you won’t get elected. However my point in all of this is that the utter crap of pushing individuals to represent the people of Wicklow should be based on more than a sob story. Now I suggest you think before you spew your comments about which YOU obviously no NOTHING about. Idiot
I didn’t say they were nothing – I said that the physical pain, the loss of ability over your own mind and body are different – nice hat you have on that straw man of yours.
You are quick to reach for the personal attacks, I hope that you realise this adds nothing to your argument. Obviously you have become defensive reading my post as you have clearly taken it out of context and added your own inferences to what I said that are not there.. This man is seeking to continue on in his wife’s crusade, perhaps he sees it as honouring her memory, whether he gets elected or not is the voters choice. Perhaps you have decided in the wake of your loss to advocate for mental health causes, or do the darkness into light walk for pieta house? Which – while not the same as running for election, are done from a similar place.
I’m sorry for your loss, but there’s really no need to start throwing around personal insults. We’re both adults I presume?
Shanti stop back tracking and re read your post and mine for that matter, if you had you would see my point and it was never personal towards him I suggest before you throw around ignorant comments about any type of life and death situations you would at least understand them. Goodbye
Er, my original point to you was that you don’t have to vote for him, and his decision to run in no way guarantees that anyone will vote for him.
You started throwing in sudden adult death syndrome – which I too have lost friends to, and suicide – which I have more than enough personal experience of, why you would assume I have not experienced this I do not know. I tried to explain that sudden adult death syndrome comes with no indication (a far cry from a slowly progressing deterioration) or a suicide which the person carries out themselves – a person with something like advanced multiple sclerosis is not capable of doing. Suicide is also something that is done quickly, because no one wants a slow painful death when they choose it.
You seem to have made some major leaps past that, claiming I somehow dismiss the pain and anguish leading to suicide, or the grief one feels following the loss – and resorted to personal attacks, not against Tom, against ME. This was what I meant, if you would care to read what I said rather than what you wish to see.
R.I.P Santa
I agree with Tom the HSE are an absolute failure in ref: to carers & the state provide neither recognition to the endurance of people such as himself & my mother-in-law in taking caring of patients with long-term illness/disability. However my major concern is if assisted suicide/euthanasia is implemented into law the HSE will devalue my brother-in-law even further deeming him a burden on the state & will neglect to provide help/ provision even more just look at the UK in ref: to the Liverpool Care Pathway. The Liverpool Care Pathway was supposed to be a programme providing pallative care for the dying but opened the gateway to leaving treatable patients to starve & dehydrate. When people are intellectually impaired the state will step in & choose for them.
The point of “right to die” legislation is not for someone else to make the decision for you. It is for people to make their own decisions about how they choose to end their lives – allowing a third party to administer it if their diseases progression prevents them from doing so.
For example – if someone requests assisted suicide they must undergo evaluation to ensure that they can fully understand the implications of the action. If their disease involves mental decline they must make their application before the decline renders them incapable of making the decision. Their families cannot choose it for them.
As far as dehydration and starvation goes, are you aware that many people at the end of their lives choose this? They start refusing meals because it’s the only way they have to try and speed up their end. These people are then put on saline drips and force fed, using peg feeders – which they pull out if they can causing themselves even more suffering. All because they have decided they cannot go on anymore. It’s heartbreaking to watch a person do this to themselves. All because some people think that their morals matter more than the person actually living it’s feelings.
#get
We need to move away from candidates that run on a singular issue. Hopefully he has more strings to his bow. If not, I likely wouldn’t vote for him.
The issue of assisted suicide is one worthy of debate, and imo, legislation too. However, it can be achieved without a dail or council seat.
Agreed, candidates need a more rounded platform on which to run, single issues are just that – an advocacy group may have been a better channel for his energy than an election.. It’s a lot of money to sink into a likely failure.
My point exactly Sam, this country has many issues and I for one have had it up too neck, trying to run a business, raise family and survive. And the only options for change are what the media choose to focus. I wish him all the best but the time for giving people votes because they have had rough time is gone. Show me you credentials, tell me your plans and tell me you understand finance and are socially conscious about more than what you hold personally.
One would hope that most voters would ask for the same. Like I said, it is a lot of money to sink into what is most likely to be a failure to get a seat. People have run on far wider issues and still just lost money.
You won’t vote for him, I wouldn’t vote for him – but he has the right to run if that’s what he feels he must do.
The voters of Wicklow have voted in some numpties in the past – but they have also voted in the likes of Stephen Donnelly, so there may be hope yet that more people are voting based upon actual issues than single ones.
have your say