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IF YOU FIND yourself in the vicinity of a recently detonated nuclear bomb, you might be wondering, “What should I do?”
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory researcher Michael Dillon did some math to figure out the answer to that exact question. His findings were published this week in the journal Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical and Physical Sciences.
The scenario: You are in a large city that has just been subjected to a single, low-yield nuclear detonation, between 0.1 and 10 kilotons (that’s a little smaller than the bomb dropped on Hiroshima).
Studies have shown that you and up to 100,000 of your fellow citizens can be saved if you keep your radiation exposure quite low. That requires you to find a good place to hide and wait until the rescuers can make their way to you.
US government guidance suggests hiding in a nearby building, but not all of them provide much shelter from nuclear fallout.
Poor shelters, which include about 20 per cent of houses, are constructed of lightweight materials and lack basements. The best shelters are thick brick or concrete and come sans windows. A bomb shelter, really.
This infographic from a government guide to the aftermath of nuclear attacks gives a rough idea on what makes a building a good or bad place to hide from fallout:
Click here for a larger image.
So, hiding in the sub-basement of a brick five story apartment building will leave you exposed to just 1/200th the amount of fallout radiation outside; hanging out in the living room of your one story wood frame house will only cut down the radiation by about one-half, which, if you are next to a nuclear explosion, will not do much to help you.
What do you do if there isn’t a good shelter right near you? Should you stay in a crappy shelter, or risk exposure to find a better one? And how long should you wait?
The researchers developed models to determine your best options.
Choose Your Own Adventure: Nuclear Bomb Blast. There are three possible paths: 1. Find the closest shelter and stay there; 2. Find an initial shelter, then move to a better one; Or 3. Walk and find a better shelter instead of staying in a crappy one. (Image: Dillon M. 2014 Determining optimal fallout shelter times following a nuclear detonation. Proc. R. Soc. A 2013.0693.)
If you are immediately next to or in a solid shelter when the bomb goes off, stay there until the rescuers come to evacuate you to less radioactive vistas.
If you aren’t already in a bomb shelter, but know a good shelter is about five minutes away — say you can see a large apartment building a few blocks away that would have a basement — the calculations suggest hoofing it over there quick and staying in place.
But if the nice, thick-walled building would take about 15 minutes travel time, you can hole up in the flimsy shelter for a bit, but you should probably leave for better shelter before the timer hits 30 minutes.
And while you are hoofing it around your now-radioactive neighborhood, pick up some beers and sodas. A study in the ’50s found they still tasted fine after a blast.
Here are some general guidelines based on how decent your first and second shelters are:
This table shows that the optimum time to stay in a poor shelter before moving to a better but still inadequate one is 37 minutes. (Image: Dillon M. 2014 Determining optimal fallout shelter times following a nuclear detonation. Proc. R. Soc. A 2013.0693)
One of the big advantages of the approach that this paper uses is that, to decide on a strategy, evacuation officials need to consider only the radiation levels near shelters and along evacuation routes — the overall pattern of the radioactive death-cloud does not factor into the models, and so decisions can be made quickly and in a decentralised way.
Other researchers have analyzed other similar scenarios in papers, whose findings are summarised in the chart below:
For a larger image, click here.
Did anyone explain the rules of fight club to these people!
@Darren Ahern: Seems they did… hence no one’s talkin’ about it!?
@Joe Phillips: they made a Snapchat group about it sure that’s worse than talking about it!
@Darren Ahern: They are cowards, gangs attacking one or two people, not really a fight club.
@Darren Ahern: Haha! Good point
Although I don’t remember hearin’ Tyler Durden mention snapchat so, technically…
@Darren Ahern: came here for this comment. Was not disappointed
People don’t report stuff because Guards do nothing about it the majority of the time. And if they do something, the courts don’t follow through. There is no justice for victims in Ireland.
Can’t do anything if it’s not reported.
@Anthony: Can’t do anything when crimes are reported either apparently.
@Carol Oates: moral of the story: never try
@Carol Oates: “apparently”
@Carol Oates: something tells me you want to see more criminals doing porridge.
@Carol Oates: I didnt know Ireland has a 0% crime detection rate…….. why have you hidden this from us for so long… all wise and powerful one
@Carol Oates: It’s sadly true. Someone without a previous conviction would likely be given a suspended sentence for assault in this country, if it can even be proven through the courts. For victims the idea of taking on a gang like this when none of them are taken off the streets is terrifying since the chances of them or one of their comrades coming for revenge is high.
@Carol Oates: all the gardai do is issue speeding fines
@Rochelle: Exactly right.
I’m in no way condoning any of the behaviour described here but I cannot imagine what my childhood would have been like if all the fights that went on when I was young had been filmed.
Two opposing schools fighting down the park….. fights after school….
Can’t say I can think of strangers ever being randomly attacked but there was a lot of fights when I was young that I’m very glad there is no evidence of today.
@Bob Earner: I always get a chuckle out of the “kids these days”’comments from older generations. The same stuff and worse went on back the. Just there wasn’t cameras everywhere to record it or social media to share it
@Kian: It’s the weirdest form of amnesia!!
Can you imagine if every fight resulted in a criminal assault charge!? 60% of my school would have been up in front of the Childrens Panel!
@Bob Earner: There has always been fights after school. But these youths seem to be recording random vicious assaults just for the fun of it. A big difference.
@Kian: ha exactly. If there’s a gun attack : jaysus the worst I ever saw was a knife.
If there’s a knife attack : why can’t they just use their God given fists the cowards!
Use fists : what is wrong with these monsters bring back the rope
@Bob Earner: War of the Buttons is a classic Irish children’s film about two rival schools baiting lumps out if each other.
any shyte bag who randomly attacks someone should be tarred, feathered and forced into the wilderness to fend for themselves
@Eon Cocker: and blow we go live to the 1700s
@Seriously stunned: and now we go live to the 1700s.
Gardai are only getting involved and making a statement in the media because it’s in the public eye and they have to be seen to be doing something. Especially after the recent stats on young offenders getting away with a slew of crimes. They couldn’t care less about teenagers fighting, in reality.
Don’t bother reporting it to the guards they are useless. I witnessed a car being broken into at the weekend rang the guards to report it & they never came, an hour later my wife rang back & reported it again, they never came and now the car is just sitting there wrecked. The scrotes sat in it for an hour trying to get it started and then just walked away.
@Tom Sawyer: no money in responding to that.
We effectively have no police force in this country now as all their time is taken up gathering revenue for the Government by harassing hard working people going about their business.
No other European people would put up with this lunacy
@Pius Flynn: 10 people dead in 7 days on Irish roads! I think enforcing road traffic legislation is a worthwhile endeavour
Why do people insist on sh*tting on the Gardai when the article clearly states that they are pro-actively trying to sort the problem out?
@Pius Flynn: What exactly are you getting at? Hard-working people speeding; not paying tax; insurance; unsafe vehicles? And if you think that no other Europeans would put up with this, I invite you to try any of the above in France, the Uk, Spain or Germany. You might be surprised to find yourself walking home.
@David Irwin: it depends on what legislation you are talking about.
And anyway we have enough laws, we need training for young drivers, and roads that are safe to drive on.
@George Salter: In other country’s they have technology called number plate recognition, you were probably too busy shining the local superintendents shoes to hear about it.
In other country’s if the police tried to set up checkpoints like they do here, they would be driven across, and rightfully so.
If you pay your tax and insurance and you have a valid drivers license you should be able to go about your business unhindered.
The police have far too much power in this country, it’s a police state really.
Make the statements before someone dies.
His name is Robert Paulson…
Could we not just get some undercover Gardai to join the group and go beat the bejaysus out of them?
have your say