THE WORLD MAY cross the crucial 1.5C global warming threshold in seven years as fossil fuel CO2 emissions continue to rise, scientists have warned.
The group are urging countries at the COP28 talks to “act now” on coal, oil and gas pollution.
Battle lines are being drawn over the future of fossil fuels at the UN climate summit in Dubai, with big polluters trying to see off calls for an agreement to phase out the carbon-intensive energy responsible for most of human-caused greenhouse gas.
Fossil fuel CO2 pollution rose 1.1 % last year, according to an international consortium of climate scientists in their annual Global Carbon Project assessment.
The study discovered China and India’s emissions are surging, becoming the world’s first and third biggest emitters.
They estimated that there is a 50% chance warming will exceed the Paris deal’s goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius over multiple years by around 2030, although they noted uncertainties around warming from non-CO2 greenhouse gases.
“It is getting more and more urgent,” lead author Pierre Friedlingstein, of Exeter University’s Global Systems Institute, told reporters.
“The time between now and 1.5 degrees is shrinking massively, so to keep a chance to stay below 1.5C, or very close to 1.5C, we need to act now.”
Glen Peters, a senior researcher at the CICERO Center for International Climate Research, said carbon dioxide emissions are now six percent higher than when countries signed the Paris deal.
“Things are going in the wrong direction,” he said.
That is despite a promising surge in renewable energy, a key issue at the Dubai climate talks where more than 100 countries have signed a call to triple renewable capacity this decade.
“Solar wind, electric vehicles, batteries, they’re all growing rapidly, which is great. But that is only half the story,” he said.
“The other half is reducing fossil fuel emissions. And we’re simply not doing enough.”
The UN released its latest draft of a global climate agreement presenting all options on fossil fuels – from phasing them out to not discussing them at all.
The fate of oil, gas and coal is the thorniest issue being thrashed out at COP28 and divisions around their future have dominated the conference.
The second version of the negotiating text puts three options on the table, setting the stage for a gruelling showdown as representatives from nearly 200 nations try to reach a final agreement.
The first proposes “an orderly and just phase out of fossil fuels” – the toughest stance and one seen as essential by low-lying island nations at threat from rising seas.
The second calls for faster efforts to phase out projects that lack the means to capture and store emissions, and to “rapidly” reduce fossil fuel use to achieve carbon neutrality in global energy production by 2050.
The third option contained in the 24-page draft is “no text” at all, a position supported by oil giant Saudi Arabia and China.
A previous version had only mentioned the options of a phase-out or a weaker phase-down.
Saudi Arabia’s energy minister told Bloomberg last night that he “absolutely” rejected calls for a phase-down, hinting at the bitter fight ahead over the issue.
The broad language on fossil fuels in the text “prepares the ground for intense future deliberations”, said Harjeet Singh, a campaigner with the Climate Action Network.
The draft forms the basis of negotiations that will unfold in coming days, with a final text expected in theory by 12 December.
It is a formal response to the “global stocktake“, a damning report card published in September that highlighted how little the world had done to confront the climate crisis.
The research found fossil fuels accounted for 36.8 billion tonnes of a total of 40.9 billion tonnes of CO2 estimated to be emitted this year.
Several major polluters have clocked falling CO2 emissions this year, including a 3% decrease in the United States and a 7.4% drop across the European Union.
But China, which accounts for almost a third of global emissions, is expected to see a 4% rise in fossil fuel CO2 this year, the research found, with increases in coal, oil and gas as the country continues to rebound from its Covid-19 lockdowns.
Meanwhile, a rise in CO2 emissions of more than 8% in India means the country has now overtaken the EU as the third-biggest fossil fuel emitter, scientists said.
In both India and China increasing demand for power is outstripping a significant rollout of renewables, said Peters.
Emissions from aviation rose by 28 % this year as it rebound from pandemic-era lows.
The research was published in the journal Earth System Science Data.
The Earth has already warmed some 1.2C, unleashing ferocious heatwaves, wildfires, floods and storms.
Temperatures this year have surged to the highest in recorded history and the UN’s World Meteorological Organization has said 2023 was already around 1.4C above the pre-industrial baseline by October.
Going above 1.5C for a single year would not breach the Paris deal, however, which is measured over decades.
Our climate reporter Lauren Boland joined us on Monday from COP 28 to tell us what’s happening on the ground – what measures are being bashed out, and about Ireland’s involvement. Watch here or below.
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