THERE ARE A few big set pieces teed up for next year, from a new Taoiseach, to a new Northern Ireland Assembly to a new House of Representatives in the US.
Here’s a bit about those events and what we know now about what to expect from them.
The big political drama of the pandemic, where dozens of people including a minister and a EU commissioner attended a dinner in a Galway hotel organised by a golf society.
As part of the fallout, which included two high-profile resignations in Dara Calleary and Phil Hogan, a trial is scheduled for the first week of 2022.
On 6 and 7 January, the August 2020 event is expected to be put under the spotlight, with the Irish Independent reporting that some of those in attendance at the Clifden dinner have been subpoenaed to give evidence.
Hold onto your hats for this one…
It feels strange that we can say exactly when a Taoiseach will step aside almost a year in advance – but that is what will happen on 15 December 2022.
When the current three-party Government was formed in June 2020, it was agreed that the term as Taoiseach would be split between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil (the third coalition party, the Greens, didn’t have the numbers in the Dáil to make it to that podium).
Under this ‘rotating Taoiseach’ system, Micheál Martin will remain Taoiseach until 15 December 2022, after which Leo Varadkar will swap his Tánaiste role for the Taoiseach’s chair.
If the government lasts the course he will stay in that spot until at least 20 February 2025, by which date the next general election will need to be held.
There has been speculation about whether Micheál Martin would become Tánaiste once Leo Varadkar is in the top spot, as there is some suggestion that once he finishes his term as Taoiseach there may be a Fianna Fáil leadership challenge – but Martin has so far said he’d take on the Tánaiste role.
Next year’s Northern Ireland Assembly elections will be huge for two reasons.
The first is a Census for Northern Ireland held last year that, once the results are fully revealed in 2022, is expected to show a Catholic majority in the North for the first time since its inception. There is also some suggestion that the number of people supporting ‘neutral’ parties like the Alliance Party is on the rise.
This is significant in how it may shape the political system in Northern Ireland, and what kind of Executive is formed to run the jurisdiction.
Related to that, the second reason the results will be significant is the Assembly that is elected will be the group of MLAs voting in 2024 on whether to keep the Northern Ireland Protocol.
Because of this, parties are expected to rehash old debates about Brexit and the Protocol as part of the efforts to win over voters.
The elections will be held on Thursday 5 May, where 90 candidates will be elected as MLAs.
The Northern Ireland Executive is headed up by a First Minister and Deputy First Minister. Since the 2007 revival of power sharing, the DUP have held the First Minister role, while Sinn Féin have held the Deputy First Minister position.
The results of the next election could see Sinn Féin take the First Minister role, and the DUP or Alliance take the Deputy First Minister position – though it’s as of yet unclear whether the DUP would accept the deputy leader role.
Related to that, there are many key Brexit deadline dates queued up for next year.
Among the key post-Brexit trade issues mooted for next year are the full customs declarations required by 1 January, the dairy products checks coming in from 1 September, and checks on animal products from 1 November.
By 31 December, a transitional period will end for declarations needed by suppliers to the EU; and a grace period on medicines going from Great Britain to Northern Ireland will also end.
Probably the most famous Brexit trade issue, the GB-to-NI chilled meats ban, doesn’t have a deadline, as the grace period for this ban has been extended indefinitely while talks between the UK and EU on the implementation of the NI Protocol continue.
Here are the key dates ahead of next year:
1 January
30 June
1 July
1 September
1 November
France’s youngest-ever president is in the midst of a tense reelection campaign ahead of a presidential election on 22 April next year.
Emmanuel Macron has been touring small-town and rural France in recent weeks, where he has stopped to chat to shopkeepers, and drank wine in local cafés. He’s expected to use the benefits of his presidential office as late as possible into the campaign.
In Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has wielded power since 2010. The nationalist Orbán and his political party Fidesz face an election next April against a six-party opposition alliance with polls predicting a neck-and-neck race.
The 58-year-old Orbán and his party will face Marki-Zay, a 49-year-old conservative provincial mayor, who won an opposition primary election in October. The primary was Hungary’s first ever, and was organised by an opposition alliance formed last year in an effort to combat the mainly first-past-the-post election system that favours Orbán and his party.
The US Midterms will also be held on Tuesday 8 November 2022. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate will be contested. This will be seen as a litmus test for Joe Biden’s presidency, and the result may decide whether there’s a Trump candidacy for the presidential election in 2024.
By the way, we’ve noticed that in 2024, there will be a vote in Northern Ireland on whether to keep the Protocol in December, a UK general election in May, and a hotly-anticipated US presidential election in November. A busy few years ahead.
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