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Updated 12 February 7.30pm
AFTER TWO FAILED approaches, British Airways parent company IAG has made a third – and, so far, more successful – bid for Aer Lingus.
Since the offer on 26 January, the potential deal has been caught up in a political bun-fight amid concerns over what the deal would mean for the future of the national carrier, its workers and international links to Ireland.
Chief executive Willie Walsh will appear before an Oireachtas committee today in an attempt to push the deal over the line by convincing politicians that it is the best move for the carrier.
Yesterday, he claimed that if the takeover succeeds, Aer Lingus will both grow its transatlantic business and fleet. He also warned that suggestions of too much political interference in this matter is not a good PR message for doing business in Ireland.
Earlier this month, IAG tried to ease the numerous concerns outlined by various politicians by offering the Irish government some significant ‘legally binding commitments’ on three aspects of the business – namely, that its Heathrow slots cannot be sold, that they would operate on Irish routes for the next five years and that the firm’s headquarters and incorporation would remain in Ireland. Its name would also remain unchanged.
Since then, Walsh has clarified that the group cannot offer guarantees on the Heathrow slot routes for longer than five years as it would be bad business, impacting his bargaining power with various partners.
Ahead of his appearance in Leinster House at 2pm, we look at why IAG is so keen to snap up the airline.
TheJournal.ie talked to Merrion Capital’s head of research, David Holohan, about the potential buyout to unpick what we know about an Aer Lingus sale so far:
What’s on the table?
IAG announced it was prepared to pay €2.55 per share for Aer Lingus, a deal which would value the airline at about €1.35 billion. The British Airways parent has also stated its plans for Aer Lingus, including that:
Why does IAG want Aer Lingus so badly?
The first reason, which has been on the tip of most analysts’ tongues, is the airline’s valuable landing and takeoff slots at London’s Heathrow airport – where British Airways has been unable to expand due to the capacity restraints. Irish Airline Pilots Association president Evan Cullen has said the only reason IAG wanted to get its hands on Aer Lingus was because of the Heathrow slots, adding: “Aer Lingus does not need IAG, IAG needs Aer Lingus.”
But Holohan believes those slots weren’t the most important concern for IAG in terms of maximising its return from an Aer Lingus buyout, which would come amid a general trend in smaller airlines being swallowed up by big carriers.
“What is really attractive for IAG is that Aer Lingus is a very well-known brand and it has enormous potential to expand out of Dublin,” he said.
Ireland is uniquely positioned to grow the transatlantic route because of its pre-clearance arrangement. I think the goal for IAG will be to use Dublin as a connections hub – to fly passengers short-haul from London and then onto pre-clearance, long-haul flight to the US.”
The Dublin to London route is already the busiest in Europe and one of the most profitable due to the short flight time, which means lower fuel and staff costs compared to trips further afield. IAG boss Willie Walsh, the former head of Aer Lingus, previously told the Independent in October the value of the Heathrow slots was in using them on the Dublin-London route.
And while one of the concerns about a sale has been the loss of regional connections to London, Holohan said IAG was unlikely to rock the boat on what were money-making operations.
IAG has put connectivity as a very important part of their plans going forward and they’re unlikely to alter those plans. All of the Aer Lingus routes that flow to Heathrow are profitable and that includes the more regional routes.”
A guarantee has been made that the Heathrow slots will be used on Irish routes for at least five years after the takeover.
Who makes the decision on the deal in the end?
It’s important to note IAG’s approach was only a “proposal to make an offer” – and one which is subject to a few conditions. The first of these is that the Aer Lingus board give its approval for the deal – which it has done, subject to it being happy with the way IAG would “address the interests of relevant parties”.
Another condition is the suitor will still want to go ahead with the deal after taking a closer look at the Irish airline’s books and operations. But the key part of Aer Lingus’s statement on the possible offer is that it depends on: “…the receipt of irrevocable commitments from Ryanair Limited and the Minister for Finance of Ireland to accept the offer.”
These are the two, major shareholders who between them own nearly 55% of the airline’s shares – and neither the budget airline nor the government has publicly announced its intentions yet.
What does Ryanair say?
Michael O’Leary has called for a more common-sense approach from politicians, telling Newstalk Breakfast on 2 February that the focus on the Heathrow slots is largely irrelevant.
In typical O’Leary style, he added:
Speaking personally, I think Aer Lingus would be better owned by an Irish group but I’ve tried that three times and been turned down three times. The good news for Irish people is that the future of Aer Lingus doesn’t matter because Ryanair is ten times bigger.”
The CEO said the board will consider the offer when it is tabled but the budget airline has widely been tipped to give its tick of approval. One reason for this is because the UK regulator has already ordered Ryanair to cut its stake in its Irish rival to 5% from its current level of nearly 30%. Ryanair has appealed and a decision is expected on that shortly.
Holohan said Ryanair wouldn’t make its position clear until a formal offer from IAG was on the table, but he expected the airline to be a “willing seller”. Ryanair currently stands to walk away with about €400 million for its Aer Lingus shares.
Ryanair has made several approaches to airlines seeking to dispose of its stake but it hasn’t been able to find a suitable buyer until now,” he said.
And what does the government say?
Here’s the tricky part. One of the conditions attached to the government’s 25% share in Aer Lingus, a legacy of its history as a state-owned enterprise, is that it couldn’t dispose of any shares in the company without Dáil approval. The key worries are jobs and connections – the former based on the likely cuts that would come with consolidation, the latter about international links to Shannon and other airports outside Dublin. This is TheJournal.ie political editor Hugh O’Connell’s take on the view inside Leinster House about the deal:
The potential sale of the government’s 25 per cent stake in Aer Lingus has caused a lot of unease in coalition circles. This is primarily within the Labour party, which now appears steadfast against it from the Tánaiste Joan Burton down to backbenchers. Labour, ideologically, would be against the sale of the government’s stake in the airline having previously opposed its privatisation in 2004 (it should be said that Fine Gael TDs voted against it too).
But there are local concerns too. Labour has a huge number of TDs in the north Dublin area where Aer Lingus is based, including the Tánaiste herself out in Dublin West, and they’ll be worried about their already precarious Dáil seats and their constituents, some of whom either work for Aer Lingus or know someone that does, and what impact any potential job losses would have on them and the local economy. Those worries aren’t confined to Labour, nor are they confined to Dublin.
Fine Gael TDs in the capital like Alan Farrell have publicly expressed doubt about their merit of any sale. In addition, Aer Lingus’ presence in Shannon and Cork has raised concerns among coalition backbenchers based there too. The view slowly starting to form in government and particularly on the Labour side is that a compelling case for the sale of Aer Lingus has not yet been made.
That’s not to say it will be made particularly once a cross-departmental, expert group issues its views in the coming weeks. But with an election just over a year away, a lot of upheaval and controversy could be caused by selling the State’s stake in Aer Lingus and would that really be worth it for a mere €340 million?
Part of the reason the government has become so unpopular over the last year has been a serious of errors of judgement, particularly around Irish Water. The government’s ability to not screw up will be they key to its re-election, which is why it may well err on the side of caution and decide against selling.
So if it does go ahead, what would a sale mean for Irish passengers?
In Holohan’s opinion, passengers were likely to experience little difference in Aer Lingus operations after a buyout, although they would enjoy the benefits of tapping into a much larger airline network.
It will be the same planes, the same people greeting them and the same pilots flying them,” he said. “Where they stand to benefit is because they will become part of the One World alliance, which means they will have far more routes to choose from and options for transfers.”
IAG has left Spanish carriers Vueling and Iberia as largely independent operations after swallowing up, with their own staff, brands and decisions over routes. However the loss-making Iberia has been on the receiving end of severe job cuts, which has piqued concerns the same pattern would be repeated, to some degree, at the profitable Aer Lingus.
So how likely is it that this deal will happen?
If the Dáíl does vote against the plan it could leave both potential buyer and seller in a tricky position. IAG has signaled it wants the government’s approval before it moves, but if the company decided to push the sale through then the Irish taxpayer would be left as a lame-duck, minority shareholder with no say in the airline’s operations or even what cashflow it received from the investment.
But despite the negative commentary coming out of political circles, Holohan believes a deal will eventually go ahead with political approval once IAG has finished its due diligence – even if it was impossible for the government to elicit any iron-clad guarantees the buyer would act on its intentions.
The rhetoric coming out of the government is very much parish politics, rather than working in the national interests,” he said. “I believe that will change (when) IAG will be able to provide more information about connectivity and any staff cuts – when when they are able to do that I believe it will shore up the deal.”
First published Friday 30 Jan, 4.20pm
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It’s the slots IAG are after simple as that.
Qatar Airways has just bought 9.99% of IAG. Given that it’s arch-rival Etihad already owns 3% of Aer Lingus, things could get pretty interesting:
http://m.rte.ie/news/business/2015/0130/676603-qatar-airways-takes-9-99-stake-in-iag/
This could also put a spanner in the works of IAG’s strategy to wrestle back eastbound customers from the Middle East carriers.
IAG doesn’t seem to want the middle eastern business back… They seem willing to let it go.
They make all their money on transatlantic where they compete only with the American airlines, and no one will go east to go west.
Fly Any of the Middle Eastern cariers in first and business class and the difference is immense meanwhile BA cuts their cabin service and comfort back by the day. The Qatar A380 has 56 seats in biz/first plus a lounge and the same number of crew and space as BA have serving 114 on theirs.
Drew , you are right but Qatar want the westbound traffic, that’s where it gets interesting.
If the government think about this rationally they will refuse to sell because of unemployment in North Dublin , decreased connectivity between Dublin , cork and Shannon with Heathrow.
Also , the financial side is murky when taking into aer lingus ‘ cash non pension cash reserves.
Qatar will take it at least from the USA and European based customers…. Not the premium direct to London but people flying via london to elsewhere in Europe.
All their new 787s and A350s are going on second tier european routes. Zurich, Geneva, Berlin, Milan, Vienna, Rome… Plus the hubs Amsterdam, Paris, Frankfurt.
Flight time isn’t the issue its stopping and dealing with the BA terminal 5 mess.
The 1% wealthiest in the world are buying up state assets worldwide. The 99% rest of us will be left with nothing.
Yes they are after the Heathrow slots, we are an Island as a nation we have to stop this, no new lading slots in Heathrow, earth population rising, we are going to sell off all Our assets to the 1% who are fueled on only by Greed !!! They will then in turn, control the cost of flying in and out of Ireland, think longterm people. Do you think choose to fly commercial flight from Ireland to Heathrow or China to Heathrow, which has higher profits !!! That is all the 1% care about !!
Drew, they only compete with American?? American are their partners!!
I’m getting fed up with people staring “fact” when they know absolutely nothing about the airline industry
Gill, did you even read the article? Me Walsh has already stated that the dublin heathrow route is very profitable and he wouldn’t change it…
Unsure whether you are been ironic !!
Thus highlighting that we cannot trust anything been released into the media that comes from the 1% (1% owning over 75% worldwide media) ?
I said THE AMERICAN airlines… Not American Airlines you patronizing dingbat… As in the airlines of the country known as the United States of America…
Delta, United, Virgin (which is know pretty much being run by Delta).
@andy yeah cause business men are bastions of society and keep their word. He would say mass if he thought it would get the deal.
What facts are you basing your comment on ? IAG wants to grow Aer Lingus out of Dublin.
So what if they’re after the slots? Dublin’s already connected to all the major North American business hubs, to all the European capitals, to all the major middle and Far East hubs. We’re well connected, the hype over the slots is just political cacophonous BS…
1.2Billion the value of the Heathrow Slots Today !
Population Rising in the Asia & African Continent !!
Population Decreasing in the EU !!
Business Is about profit, Irish Slots be open Asian market, less flights from Dublin longterm.
Do not agree to the Sale the 1% Wealthiest will not careless about Irish population once they get there hands on Heathrow Slots.
Willie Walsh has conflict Interest !
Stop the Sale of Irish State Assets, we be left with nothing & stuck on island in 10yrs time !!!
@ Byys, the slots are too costly in London, passenger tax is sky high compared to tax out of Ireland – they want the short haul to Dublin and then onwards to the U.S. (and probably worldwide) to keep their taxes and prices down…..meaning lots more routes and customers….
Make the regulators do the job properly. They don’t with phones, power, health insurance, airport charges et al. Check the petrol pumps tomorrow. Still a long way to go to reflect current oil prices. Aer Lingus and Aer Rianta and CIE and the ESB have been screwing us for ever.
Far cheaper ways to get slots that spend 1.2 Bn to buy Aer Lingus. And BA already have a surplus of slots in LHR for their curent operation.
Peter, you forgot to mention Willie Walsh is an Aer Lingus shareholder, and also sits on the NTMA committee who advise the government on the sale of state assets!
Maybe Willie Walsh has a couple of scores to settle…..
And I hope he does. The taxpayer has even more scores to settle. Does everybody forget it cost €400 return to London in the ’70′s? Team Aer Lingus screwed Bertie. Cheap flights to staff when paying customers couldn’t get on. Ridiculous pensions and Greek retirements. Wake up out there.
“Cheap flights for staff when customer couldn’t get on” You sir are a fool who doesn’t know how standby travel works. And by the way the ’70′s were 40 years ago…build a bridge. The world, the nation, the industry and the company are far far changed from the 1970′s/
Fairly simple, I think this is undervalued. I think the shareholders are being ripped off with the offer and tbh i think IAG are taking advantage of the currency markets presently to make it appear their offer has improved when in reality it has not.
Aer Lingus may be sold at some stage, but no i dont believe its a good deal. Should be Vetoed
Govt cannot veto the sale James..
The real question is… How come every country that has dealings with the IMF always ends up privatising everything connected with that countries government?
That’s easy, they get bargain deals for their people and bleed the country dry. Sort of Mafia shake down, when do they stop, when everything is Gone and the country belongs to a few mega corporations. They are up to it here and Irish water is in their sights in fact they believe they have it that’s why Enda and the rest of the parasites are ignoring the wishes of the people.
IW will be privatised especially when TTIP comes in?
Approx 1.2 million people voted for pro water party charges parties on the last general election approx 300,000 voted for anti water charges parties. Now tell me how is implementing water charges not in the democratic wishes of the people based on the last GE?
http://www.slideshare.net/OfficialFineGael/fine-gael-manifesto-web
No I don’t see it there either?
http://www.labour.ie/download/pdf/labour_election_manifesto_2011_reform.pdf
Is it here, no I can’t see it?
One thing I don’t understand is why the UK regulator can order Ryanair to reduce its shareholding ? Surely it has no jurisdiction over two Irish companies
They can, It’s because Ryanair are listed on the London stock exchange.
Tom, incorrect. It’s because they both have significant business that affects the UK
Ireland is the only country in the EU that does not have a law stating that your competitor cannot have a large shareholding in you that could potentially impact your business and/or competition
@Gravel Pitt The Dublin/London route is by far the busiest in Euope http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/travelnews/11033774/The-worlds-busiest-air-routes.html
Yes, I was thinking Dublin/London (DUB/LHR). Forgetting that there’s 5/6 more airports there!
DUB/LHR is the busiest route between 2 different countries in Europe and 14th busiest in Europe
overall.
Padraig ..DUB Heathrow is among the busiest in the world.. IAG appear to be chasing the.transatlantic business at DUB….over 2 million passengers last year..Heathrow slots don’t really matter at Dublin. There’s plenty of good connections from DUB to everywhere.
The point should be made about the notion of using Dublin/Shannon as transatlantic hub:
Open Skies already exists between the the EU and USA – if BA (or Iberia were minded to), they could run their own large planes out of Dublin/Shannon to American cities, without ever having to buy Aer Lingus. This is why Aer Lingus operated a direct Madrid-Washington DC a few years ago.
There’s more to this than IAG simply benefitting from Dublin/Shannon’s geographical location and pre-clearance option.
There’s a shortage of new planes due to the gulf carriers having large orders with but Boeing and Airbus for heavies b
Ammendum: All proceed of Aer Lingus sale go to undisclosed german bondholders
Probably cashing in their chips to buy AIB shares on the cheap.
What a joke they sell off the share way under worth destroy about 1500 real jobs (not job scam or call center ones). The shares are being given away to a corporation that has no intention honoring any agreements
So they are willing to pay 1.3 billon for EI not a bad deal for IAG when you look at the cash reserves EI has,Not to mention the LHR slots sure they would nearly recoup all the money spent acquiring the airline.
Now if we look at the jobs that would be lost with figures in and around 1200,That’s another 1200 to join the dole with job skills that are not really transferable to another industry.
That is also 1200 tax payers gone just say on average they pay 10k in taxes that’s a 12 million dip in revenue,Then a knock on affect in the local shops etc not to mention mortgage difficulties.
Who has passchaal got advising him ? and if it’s true about Mr Walsh on the board of the NTA he should be removed due to a possible conflict of interest.
Also anyone saying that it’s a good thing regarding mergers they might want to read up on the Air France KLM merger.
Aer Lingus has cash reserve of 350 million a net loss of about 100 million over the last 10 years.
As for the slots the belong to Heathrow not to Aer lingus and there are multiple landing options in London, London City, Luton, Stansted and Gatwick
During the debate in Leinster house I recall someone mention that the company had reserves of about 950 million.
I’m getting sick of all these commentators spouting rubbish about job losses. They are basing the 1,200 job figures on the fact that IAG cut a proportional amount in Iberia….Iberia was a loss making airline, they had to make the cuts…Aer Lingus has gone through cost cutting and have shed the day of the organisation. Yes, there may be a few more that can go but they are starting to get leaner…I believe this takeover will actually lead to growth out of ireland and growth for Aer Lingus.
He doesn’t want to buy Aer Lingus just to let them fail…if people really think that, they are stupid.
Aer Lingus have been growing to North America for a good few years now and have a good offering out of dublin. Willie Walsh will want to try to get people from the north of England into ireland and onwards to the U.S. from dublin…if he does that, he frees up heathrow slots by removing BA short haul services into heathrow…he already said that dublin heathrow is a profitable route and he wouldn’t touch it!
It is just incredibly frustrating that politicians with absolutely zero business sense are making this decision because they want to get re-elected.
If the government turns this down, they may as well Nationalise Aer Lingus again and watch it fail because without a big gun behind Aer Lingus, the new businessman and family friendly Ryanair will eliminate Aer Lingus as a competitor in the medium term.
Iv worked for EI, Qatar and now BA and I know after all these years not to rely on Mr Walshs assurances!!! That especially includes the LHR slots.
As for job losses, I agree I don’t believe the figures being thrown around however I do still believe an awful lot of the ei operation could be farmed out and centralised to the UK or Spanish operations such as load control, reservations, IT and a bundle more administrative roles! Then tere is cargo. BA worldcargo and Iberia Cargo now operate as one under IAG Cargo. Aer Lingus cargo will more than likely also disappear and this will be streamlined into IAGS and will result in Aer Lingus job losses!!!!
We need to be very careful what we wish for in all of this! There can be no doubt that things will change and not necessarily for the benefit of the irish people!
the €150m that the govt gets will pay to take IW off the state books.IMF get the other €150m and remember legarde told govt in her speech when she visted that govt must work at getting debt down as soon as they can.By privatising the banks and any other means…………
Interesting that Qatar Airways has now acquired a 9.99% in IAG.
Surely the notion of ‘National Carrier’ is well past it’s sell-by date and in any case Ryanair are certainly filling that slot. Did we not read recently of Ireland standing to benefit from the congestion at the London airports in some way and of how Dublin could become a major hub for transatlantic traffic or has someone on the continent beaten us to that gem?
Mort, I never knew Ryanair had flights to Heathrow.
They don’t
Is it possible that the whole saga gets drawn out beyond any general election? a) to try and protect seats and b) when the lose it becomes somebody else’s problem.
Marc, yeah , and the planes will land on the grassy knoll.
Here’s everything you need to know about the aer lingus take over….. ITS TEDIOUS
Here’s another: it’s an issue of immense strategy national importance to an island nation with a global disapora and one of the world’s most open economies.
He had takeover plan the Government rejected about 7-8years ago, himself and two others. He then left. Now it’s a personal grudge
AIG wants the Heathrow slots!
I would be quite happy for Ryanair to buy Aer Lingus, given that it’s one of the most successful airlines in the world, Irish owned and has rather ambitious plans for the future.
Wow Leary how interesting
London/Dublin – the busiest route in Europe. I think not…..
London-Dublin is the busiest INTERNATIONAL air route in Europe, and second globally – behind Hong Kong-Taipei.
As far as I can see – if you combine the passenger numbers into all London airports – it is the busiest route(s).
City Airport, Southend, Heathrow, Luton, Gatwick and Stansted.
Yes The Government are hugely concerned about Seats ( in and out of Ireland ) .
Yes , Seats – Their Seats in An Dail ???
The day of reckoning is coming fast down the tracks now – A General Election shortly , will sort these Cowboys Pensions out .
They don’t give a whit, for Workers, or Aer Lingus – It’s all about The Seats !!!
It’s is the second busiest air route IN THE WORLD Ya big fool!
Gravel you tosser
@ An Ciarraioch – who will take over and do a better job? FG has been cleaning up after FFs mistakes for decades…..
Why is MOL on an airport apron without a H V vest, I believe they are required by byelaws….
I think you find he standing in front of a screen not on the tarmac …..lol
As Chris said its a screen, if it was a real picture on the apron they are allowed to remove the high vis vests during photo shoot, all the photographers and persons involved will have high-vis vests on and there are marshallers around so anyone without a high-vis can’t leave the area of the aircraft without putting one on.
The 5000 deferred pensioners have not gone away you know Pascal
Eh… Euro at all time low… Great time to sell!! Government need to buy back the Ryanair shares to save face on Irish Water etc. and get reelected.
I’m getting sick of all these commentators spouting rubbish about job losses. They are basing the 1,200 job figures on the fact that IAG cut a proportional amount in Iberia….Iberia was a loss making airline, they had to make the cuts…Aer Lingus has gone through cost cutting and have shed the day of the organisation. Yes, there may be a few more that can go but they are starting to get leaner…I believe this takeover will actually lead to growth out of ireland and growth for Aer Lingus.
He doesn’t want to buy Aer Lingus just to let them fail…if people really think that, they are stupid.
Aer Lingus have been growing to North America for a good few years now and have a good offering out of dublin. Willie Walsh will want to try to get people from the north of England into ireland and onwards to the U.S. from dublin…if he does that, he frees up heathrow slots by removing BA short haul services into heathrow…he already said that dublin heathrow is a profitable route and he wouldn’t touch it!
It is just incredibly frustrating that politicians with absolutely zero business sense are making this decision because they want to get re-elected.
If the government turns this down, they may as well Nationalise Aer Lingus again and watch it fail because without a big gun behind Aer Lingus, the new businessman and family friendly Ryanair will eliminate Aer Lingus as a competitor in the medium term.
Or maybe the last time willie Walsh was running Aer Lingus he wanted to out source all ground operations(1800 at the time).
I know people from Spain who are traveling to the USA via Dublin;
Madrid-Dublin-Dublin USA,
Because the savings are so great re Iberia’s direct flights.
Aer Lingus have been hovering up a lot of Willie’s transatlantic customers in Spain (probably England too) and Like a good businessman he wants that to stop.
Dont bet on IAG ownership doing anything useful for competition in the transatlantic air fare market.
Remember Ryanair have no foothold here..
The Government should sell their stake in Aer Lingus and put money into Irish water they are doing it with every other cent we have
The slots alone are worth 900m. Add in cash of 400m and there you are. We would be giving it away at 1.3b. It’s a stealfor IAG and a bad deal for us. How long before the Aer Lingus logo would disappear.
Dont be an idiot and believe stupid headlines. The slots are not worth 900 million. Going rate is approx $30M. Times 23 you get ~$690m. So lets say IAG cut the flights to LHR to use those slots for longhaul. Those BA planes are going to be unprofitable….Why? Because 5-10% of BA longhaul passengers get there from Ireland. Cut the flights and you lose the customers. And all those potential passengers from Ireland start flying with Emirates and/or Ethiad. Simples.
Mayday! Mayday! Just heard that Qatar Airways, wants to buy IAG Shares 9.99%, so AER, LINGUS. could become AER QATAR!!!!
The reality is that Aer Lingus will eventually be sold. So, do we want it to be sold to China or the Middle East, or would we prefer a group which has real and sustained growth plans in the region?
Alternatively, why does the government want to sell it so badly?
Willie Walsh has no intrest in Irish Avaition sure when he ran Aerlingus last time he wanted the first plane Aerlingus flew in 1936 (IOLAR) that was restored by Aerlingus staff in their own free time removed from the companies buildings/ Hanger. The Heartless Sonso !!!!
I think the question is why do they want so badly to get their hands on Aer Lingus…….
British Lingus anyone?
have your say