ACROSS THE 18 parliamentary constituencies in Northern Ireland, perhaps none will be as closely watched as Lagan Valley in the upcoming UK General Election.
Taking in Lisburn, and parts of the outskirts of Banbridge and Belfast, the Lagan Valley seat is currently held by former DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson.
In its 40-year constituency history, only two people have been MP for Lagan Valley – Donaldson and former Ulster Unionist Party leader James Molyneux.
Donaldson, who has held the seat since 1997, will not contest the election after being charged with rape and other historical sexual offences.
However, Donaldson will be back in Newry Courthouse on July 3, a day before voters go to the polls.
In the last election in 2019, Donaldson had a majority of around 6,500 votes and ended up with 43% of the vote in elections that are decided by the first past the post system.
This was stark drop of 16.4% in the vote share for the former DUP leader, while Alliance’s Sorcha Eastwood saw her party’s vote share surge by 17.7%.
This time round Eastwood, who is an MLA in the Lagan Valley constituency, will take on DUP MLA Jonathan Buckley in what is viewed by many as a two-horse race.
Eastwood, aged 38, was elected as a councillor on the Lisburn and Castlereagh City Council in May of 2019, and contested the UK General Election in December of the same year.
The 2019 local elections were seen as a major breakthrough for Alliance, with the party gaining 21 additional councillors and leader Naomi Long noting it was the first time the party had “broken outside the Greater Belfast area for the time in 30 years”.
Eastwood told The Journal that “our election campaign really started in 2019 off the back of that result”.
“Since then, our challenge has been to convert that into a difference on the ground.”
The momentum of the 2019 local council elections followed into the 2022 Northern Ireland Assembly elections in 2022 – Eastwood became an MLA for Lagan Valley and Alliance gained nine MLAs and became the third largest party in the North.
Much of this surge has been put down to the fact that Alliance designate as “other” in the Northern Ireland Assembly, rather than classifying themselves as “unionist” or “nationalist”.
“We don’t sit on the fence,” party leader Long told a recent BBC debate in the run-up to the elections.
“We have a strong position, we are in favour of a united community in Northern Ireland.”
On a canvass in Lisburn last week in the days before the 4 July election, Eastwood said people “aren’t short of any excuse to be angry at the DUP” when asked if Donaldson’s shadow has been looming over the race.
She said issues with the DUP stretch back for quite some time, be it backing Brexit or collapsing the Stormont Assembly.
“People aren’t short of any excuse to be angry at the DUP, let’s be completely honest about it,” said Eastwood.
“But what I want them to do is harness that anger, and that feeling of grief in some cases, and channel it into something positive where we can elect our first united community MP for Lagan Valey and make history.”
Should Eastwood win, two bits of history would be made in Lagan Valley.
She would be the first non-unionist to hold the Westminster seat, and also the first female to do so.
When asked about the opportunity to create history, Eastwood remarks that “Lagan Valley is a changing and diverse place”.
“Maybe that was the representation that matched this community 30 years ago, but it certainly isn’t now.
“People maybe felt in the past that they didn’t get adequate representation and we see our job as providing that for everybody right across the community, regardless of their view.”
She added that people have “had their fill of binary politics” and are “looking past that now”.
“They can still of course retain their own beliefs and we’re not looking anybody to recant anything,” said Eastwood.
While some people have indeed “had their fill of binary politics”, others argue that Alliance failing to take a stance on the constitutional status of Northern Ireland is mere fence sitting.
Eastwood said that when canvassing for this election, where she stands on Irish unity has not come up.
“People are so exasperated with politicians who have gone over to Westminster and beat their chests and talked about nothing other than the union and the protocol and Brexit and what does it deliver them? Absolutely nothing.”
She said people are “refreshed” by the Alliance message, which Eastwood describes as being about “reform of the institutions, a stable financial package for the North, as well as health, education, and climate”.
Eastwood added that “people are desperate for real politics on the issues that matter to them” and that Alliance makes “no secret of prioritising that”.
“I say to people, ‘I’m not unionist, I’m not nationalist, if that’s your absolute bottom line then I’m not for you’.
“But people aren’t turning around and saying that, they’re saying we want something different, we want somebody who is going to get on with the job for us.”
Traditionally a unionist stronghold, Lagan Valley is one of four constituencies that Sinn Féin will not be contesting on 4 July.
Sinn Féin’s director of elections Conor Murphy encouraged voters in these constituencies to support “progressive parties who will reject Tory cuts and Tory pacts”.
When asked if she is one of the candidates Sinn Féin is asking its members to support in constituencies it is not contesting, Eastwood remarks that Alliance is “taking support from right across the spectrum”.
“We get our vote from right across the community anyway, from unionists, nationalists, people like myself who are neither of them things,” said Eastwood.
“In a ‘first past the post’ election, of course there will be always an element of tactical voting and we are the only progressive party on the ballot that can win and we are accepting that support from right across the community.”
While Eastwood is accepting support from everywhere, in 2019 it was the DUP in particular that she was picking up support from, with her vote rising in proportion to the DUP’s fall.
“There are people who go straight from the DUP to Alliance but we also are speaking to people who’ve never voted before, who believe in what we’re doing and believe that we can win.”
And while Eastwood is feeling confident, she adds that her sense is that its “50/50 and on an absolute knife-edge”.
She notes that in a first past the post system, “not many seats will change hands” but added that Lagan Valley is a “place where it can definitely change hands and we’re fighting hard to make sure that that happens”.
Alliance currently holds one seat in North Down, which is held by Stephen Farry, but party leader Naomi Long this week said they are “clearly in contention in four or five constituencies”.
“We’re feeling very confident,” said Eastwood.
“We’re confident in our message and our campaign and we’ve been fighting a positive and progressive campaign.”
Eastwood was joined on the canvass by party colleague and MLA Danny Donnelly, who himself is running is the East Antrim constituency against the DUP’s Sammy Wilson.
When an Alliance volunteer asked where to next on the Eastwood canvass, Donnelly joked: “Next stop: Westminster!”
He described Eastwood as a “dedicated and energetic candidate” and said that he “honestly thinks she will be the next MP for Lagan Valley”.
He added that Jeffrey Donaldson’s name is not one that he has been hearing on the doors while canvassing.
“I’m not getting much of it personally,” said Donnelly.
“Other parties may have issues that’s effecting their campaigns, but ours is certainly a very positive, progressive one.”
And as for his own chances against the DUP’s Sammy Wilson, who was elected MP for East Antrim in 2005 and re-elected on four occasions since, Donnelly said “we’re in it to win it” and predicted that a “group of Alliance MPs will be headed to Westminster after this election”.
“We’ve heard from a lot of people that the DUP isn’t delivering for anybody, that some of their MPs have been in the seat for nearly 20 years and people don’t see the benefits.
“I think there is going to be substantial changes right across Northern Ireland and I hope East Antrim will be one of them.”
The other four candidates running in Lagan Valley are Robbie Butler (UUP), Patricia Denvir (Green Party), Simon Lee (SDLP) and Lorna Smyth (TUV), and the results will be known on Friday, 5 July.
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